To those saying Iowa would have to be undefeated for CFP invite...

[Xerxes]

It's fun to think about - and yes, I think Iowa would be in a great position to make the playoffs if they ran the table. That said, I don't get too excited about that because it's next to impossible. Is it possible sure? Is it likely? No. I think we all would have signed up for 10-2 to start the year - at this point in the year, if they can get to that anything else on top will be gravy. I of course want more too.

Exactly, it is fun to think about. Particularly after the disappointment after the Wisconsin game which I personally had to walk off until nearly midnight that night.

I'll just ride it out as long as Iowa can go with only 1 loss. Hopefully it doesn't stop Saturday.

I will say this: If we wake up on October 28th and Iowa still only has 1 loss, things are going to get very exciting, very quickly.

 

[seepig]

There's about a 2% chance Iowa runs the table. That would probably get us to the 4/5 line of the playoff where we might be up against some blue blood like Notre Dame or semi blue blood like Georgia, teams that the the committee would select over Iowa because of bias towards more prestigious schools.

All said it's probably at .82362% that Iowa makes the CF playoff at this point.

I think it might be LESS than 2% chance Iowa runs the table but I would even be jumping up and down with a 10-2 season and bowling some place GREAT! I just don't even know if we can do that but our schedule sets up for that if the kids play focused the last 6 games.

 

[Northside Hawk]

This thread now has a chance to become epic, all because people think everyone don’t know Jack Shit.


Jack is the only son of Awe Schitt and O. Schitt. Awe Schitt, the fertilizer magnate, married O. Schitt, the owner of
Knee-deep Schitt, Inc.
Jack Schitt married Noe Schitt and they had 6 children: Holie Schitt, The twins; Deep Schitt and Dip Schitt, Fulla Schitt, Giva Schitt and Bull Schitt.
Jack and Noe divorced. Noe later married Mr. Sherlock and because her kids were living with them, she wanted to keep her previous name. She was known as Noe Schitt-Sherlock.
Dip Schitt married Loda Schitt and they had Chicken Schitt. Fulla Schitt and Giva Schitt married the Happens
brothers in a dual ceremony.
The Schitt-Happens children are Dawg, Byrd and Horse. Bull Schitt left home to tour the world. He recently returned with his new bride, Pisa Schitt.

Now, when someone say's you don't know Jack Schitt, you can correct them.

And certainly you've heard of new job hire procedures called Special High Intensity Training.

 

[Northside Hawk]

There's about a 2% chance Iowa runs the table. That would probably get us to the 4/5 line of the playoff where we might be up against some blue blood like Notre Dame or semi blue blood like Georgia, teams that the the committee would select over Iowa because of bias towards more prestigious schools.

All said it's probably at .82362% that Iowa makes the CF playoff at this point.

I was thinking .82363%.

 

[homes]

If Iowa wins out, including the B1G title game, they're a prohibitive favorite to make it, because they'll have a better resume than a Big 12 or Pac 12 champ, what with beating Ohio State. You'd have Clemson, Bama, Notre Dame (assuming they win out) and probably Iowa.

I love it that we're even discussing this. An improved offense to go along with a stout defense can do that for a fanbase.

I think you're correct, with the proviso that OSU would probably need to be undefeated going into the Championship game.

 

[westender]

Has anyone seen Jack Shit?

I hear he hangs out in small town Iowa taverns on Saturday evenings.

 

[CP87]

Bama will go undefeated AND with the SEC Championship game tough for me to see any 2 loss SEC team getting in versus a 1 loss Iowa team with wins on the road at Penn St. and a win against OSU or Michigan in the championship game. Having said that Kirk finds a way to lose games <see Wisconsin>

Maybe time to re-think the "Kirk finds ways to lose games" narrative. Everybody will occasionally lose games as a favorite, that's football after all. The better your team and the more often you are favored, the more frequently it will happen to you.

Iowa and KF were rightfully criticized for their performance as a double-digit favorite from 2006 through 2014. Iowa was 18-0 as a double-digit favorite from '99-'05, but then swooned to 28-11 from '06-early '14 (after the ISU loss, when this article was published). What caused the putrid stretch? Complacency? A rigid, over-conservative approach? Too much fund-raising? Who knows, but it was ugly, and hence the narrative was born.

What have things looked like since then? Well, from 2015 on (3.5 years of data), Iowa is 29-3 as a favorite (90.6% win%). Among P5 teams who have been favored in at least 20 games over that stretch, Iowa is 3rd nationally (behind Clemson, 95.5%, and Alabama, 94.0%).
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/win_trends/?sc=is_fav&range=yearly_since_2015

"Cherry-picker!" you scream, "Of course they look good over that stretch because it included the 2015 undefeated regular season, which we all know was a fluke of the highest magnitude!"

Okay, let's exclude that, and look just at 2016, 2017, and 2018 to date (still 2.5 years of data). Iowa is 18th nationally among P5 in win% as a favorite (85.7%, 18-3), and a couple of the teams ahead of them (Iowa State and S. Carolina) were favored in less than 50% of their games.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/win_trends/?sc=is_fav&range=yearly_since_2016

Interestingly, Iowa is 27th nationally among P5 in win% as an underdog since 2015 (4-10, 29%). Not bad, but below KF's overall average during his tenure (going back to 2003, which is the earliest point in the data base, Iowa is 13th among P5 in win% as a dog, 37.3%).

Time for a narrative change?

 

[MelroseHawkins]

we should worry about Maryland and then at PSU next week which will be extremely tough

Well duh!

 

[MelroseHawkins]

This thread now has a chance to become epic, all because people think everyone don’t know Jack Shit.


Jack is the only son of Awe Schitt and O. Schitt. Awe Schitt, the fertilizer magnate, married O. Schitt, the owner of
Knee-deep Schitt, Inc.
Jack Schitt married Noe Schitt and they had 6 children: Holie Schitt, The twins; Deep Schitt and Dip Schitt, Fulla Schitt, Giva Schitt and Bull Schitt.
Jack and Noe divorced. Noe later married Mr. Sherlock and because her kids were living with them, she wanted to keep her previous name. She was known as Noe Schitt-Sherlock.
Dip Schitt married Loda Schitt and they had Chicken Schitt. Fulla Schitt and Giva Schitt married the Happens
brothers in a dual ceremony.
The Schitt-Happens children are Dawg, Byrd and Horse. Bull Schitt left home to tour the world. He recently returned with his new bride, Pisa Schitt.

Now, when someone say's you don't know Jack Schitt, you can correct them.

That, my friends, is a Masterpiece!

 

[CP87]

Maybe time to re-think the "Kirk finds ways to lose games" narrative. Everybody will occasionally lose games as a favorite, that's football after all. The better your team and the more often you are favored, the more frequently it will happen to you.

Iowa and KF were rightfully criticized for their performance as a double-digit favorite from 2006 through 2014. Iowa was 18-0 as a double-digit favorite from '99-'05, but then swooned to 28-11 from '06-early '14 (after the ISU loss, when this article was published). What caused the putrid stretch? Complacency? A rigid, over-conservative approach? Too much fund-raising? Who knows, but it was ugly, and hence the narrative was born.

What have things looked like since then? Well, from 2015 on (3.5 years of data), Iowa is 29-3 as a favorite (90.6% win%). Among P5 teams who have been favored in at least 20 games over that stretch, Iowa is 3rd nationally (behind Clemson, 95.5%, and Alabama, 94.0%).
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/win_trends/?sc=is_fav&range=yearly_since_2015

"Cherry-picker!" you scream, "Of course they look good over that stretch because it included the 2015 undefeated regular season, which we all know was a fluke of the highest magnitude!"

Okay, let's exclude that, and look just at 2016, 2017, and 2018 to date (still 2.5 years of data). Iowa is 18th nationally among P5 in win% as a favorite (85.7%, 18-3), and a couple of the teams ahead of them (Iowa State and S. Carolina) were favored in less than 50% of their games.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/win_trends/?sc=is_fav&range=yearly_since_2016

Interestingly, Iowa is 27th nationally among P5 in win% as an underdog since 2015 (4-10, 29%). Not bad, but below KF's overall average during his tenure (going back to 2003, which is the earliest point in the data base, Iowa is 13th among P5 in win% as a dog, 37.3%).

Time for a narrative change?

By the way, if we just look at total wins as a favorite since 2015 (the combination of being favored a lot and winning at a high % when favored), Iowa is 13th nationally among P5, behind Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Washington, USC, Stanford, Boise St, and Penn St.

They are also 13th in total wins overall among P5 over that stretch (Ok St jumps in ahead of them, USC falls behind them).

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Has anyone seen Jack Shit?

Wouldn't know him if I saw him and I sure as hell don't know him...

 

[4thngoal]

I said at the before the season started, we can play with anyone. We win out and we will give Bama all they can handle. Trust me.
Foot on the gas, because the more we win by, the more attention it brings. That means both sides of the ball. Playing team football. All three phases.
Do that like we have been and everyone will take notice. Improves draft potential. Increases notice for the play offs.

 

[Northside Hawk]

I said at the before the season started, we can play with anyone. We win out and we will give Bama all they can handle. Trust me.
Foot on the gas, because the more we win by, the more attention it brings. That means both sides of the ball. Playing team football. All three phases.
Do that like we have been and everyone will take notice. Improves draft potential. Increases notice for the play offs.

I don't know if we would give Alabama all they can handle, but I have pointed out that this team, with a vertical passing game and a quicker, deeper, more athletic defense would represent in a potential CFP better than the 2015 12-0 team.

I could see a 1990 U of Miami type game if we played 'Bama. In 1990 we stayed within striking distance of the "U" for about two and one half quarters, then they pulled away and won 48-21.

That 1990 team ended up going to the Rose Bowl.

 

[Fryowa]

—Wisconsin would have to lose.

—Iowa would have to win out.

—Iowa would have to win the B1G Championship.

—Notre Dame would have to drop at least two games.

The only way the B1G gets in is if OSU wins the title. Period. There’s no way in hell that committee picks Iowa no matter how much sense it makes. No chance. They want blue blood matchups for TV and they’re gonna get it. Until there’s an 8 team playoff, you’re going to see the top 2 SEC teams, ACC champ, and the B1G champ as long as it’s either Michigan or Ohio State. In the odd year you have a Notre Dame or really good PAC12 team, the Big Ten will be watching from their living rooms.

I repeat...THE CFP COMMITTEE DOES NOT WANT THE B1G IN THE PLAYOFF. In the last two merciful appearances our conference has been given, we’ve been outscored 69-0. B1G football is way behind the curve of southern teams and the committee knows it. They don’t want the blowout games, they want dog fights between two SEC or ACC teams that have rabid fan bases ten times the size of ours.

If for some reason OSU falls off, the CFP will be as follows:

Alabama
Clemson
Notre Dame
LSU

If OSU wins out substitute OSU for LSU.

This thread is almost like Nebraska and ISWho fans had a reality-challenged delusional baby. Some of you sound like Lloyd Christmas asking Mary Swanson, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

Jesus.

 

[Northside Hawk]

—Wisconsin would have to lose.

—Iowa would have to win out.

—Iowa would have to win the B1G Championship.

—Notre Dame would have to drop at least two games.

The only way the B1G gets in is if OSU wins the title. Period. There’s no way in hell that committee picks Iowa no matter how much sense it makes. No chance. They want blue blood matchups for TV and they’re gonna get it. Until there’s an 8 team playoff, you’re going to see the top 2 SEC teams, ACC champ, and the B1G champ as long as it’s either Michigan or Ohio State. In the odd year you have a Notre Dame or really good PAC12 team, the Big Ten will be watching from their living rooms.

If for some reason OSU falls off, the CFP will be as follows:

Alabama
Clemson
Notre Dame
LSU

If OSU wins out substitute OSU for LSU.

This thread is almost like Nebraska and ISWho fans had a reality-challenged delusional baby. Some of you sound like Lloyd Christmas asking Mary Swanson, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

Jesus.

I think this is the year a qualified Notre Dame team gets in without having to play a CCG. And it would probably be at Iowa or Wisconsin's expense.

I think a one loss Michigan team would get in as well. All of this will sort itself out. The amazing thing is that people are talking about this after our fan base as a whole was calling for heads to roll three weeks ago.

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

There's about a 2% chance Iowa runs the table. That would probably get us to the 4/5 line of the playoff where we might be up against some blue blood like Notre Dame or semi blue blood like Georgia, teams that the the committee would select over Iowa because of bias towards more prestigious schools.

All said it's probably at .82362% that Iowa makes the CF playoff at this point.

Would be awesome if Iowa and Notre Dame run the table and end 2 and 3. Seeding doesn’t really matter. An Iowa Notre Dame playoff matchup would be great. Any scenario that puts Iowa in the Rose Bowl would be really cool too. I think Iowa matches up well against anyone in the PAC12 this year, but we have to win at Penn State for any chance of that.

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

—Wisconsin would have to lose.

—Iowa would have to win out.

—Iowa would have to win the B1G Championship.

—Notre Dame would have to drop at least two games.

The only way the B1G gets in is if OSU wins the title. Period. There’s no way in hell that committee picks Iowa no matter how much sense it makes. No chance. They want blue blood matchups for TV and they’re gonna get it. Until there’s an 8 team playoff, you’re going to see the top 2 SEC teams, ACC champ, and the B1G champ as long as it’s either Michigan or Ohio State. In the odd year you have a Notre Dame or really good PAC12 team, the Big Ten will be watching from their living rooms.

I repeat...THE CFP COMMITTEE DOES NOT WANT THE B1G IN THE PLAYOFF. In the last two merciful appearances our conference has been given, we’ve been outscored 69-0. B1G football is way behind the curve of southern teams and the committee knows it. They don’t want the blowout games, they want dog fights between two SEC or ACC teams that have rabid fan bases ten times the size of ours.

If for some reason OSU falls off, the CFP will be as follows:

Alabama
Clemson
Notre Dame
LSU

If OSU wins out substitute OSU for LSU.

This thread is almost like Nebraska and ISWho fans had a reality-challenged delusional baby. Some of you sound like Lloyd Christmas asking Mary Swanson, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

Jesus.

I get it, and it makes sense, but I’m not buying. Iowa almost certainly ends the season at 9-10 wins, but if they run the table and keep winning by 2-3 touchdowns with a win in the CCG, Iowa gets in over a second SEC team his year. The only way we see the Bama LSU situation you have is if we get a scenario like last year where Bama doesn’t play in the championship, and that’s still only an if. You know what makes too much sense? Iowa with that “quality loss” to Wisconsin, but only if Wisconsin finishes 10-2 and Iowa finishes 11-1. The stars would have to align, but I think a 12-1 Iowa absolutely gets in. I don’t buy only having representatives from two power five conferences.

 

[InGoodCo]

—Wisconsin would have to lose.

—Iowa would have to win out.

—Iowa would have to win the B1G Championship.

—Notre Dame would have to drop at least two games.

The only way the B1G gets in is if OSU wins the title. Period. There’s no way in hell that committee picks Iowa no matter how much sense it makes. No chance. They want blue blood matchups for TV and they’re gonna get it. Until there’s an 8 team playoff, you’re going to see the top 2 SEC teams, ACC champ, and the B1G champ as long as it’s either Michigan or Ohio State. In the odd year you have a Notre Dame or really good PAC12 team, the Big Ten will be watching from their living rooms.

If for some reason OSU falls off, the CFP will be as follows:

Alabama
Clemson
Notre Dame
LSU

If OSU wins out substitute OSU for LSU.

This thread is almost like Nebraska and ISWho fans had a reality-challenged delusional baby. Some of you sound like Lloyd Christmas asking Mary Swanson, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

Jesus.

not really, let's not act like all of those teams are going undefeated cause they're not and LSU and Bama still face each other - if LSU pulled the upset, that's the ONLY way the SEC gets 2 in this season. I don't see it.

only 1 of those teams is going undefeated if any - of the 16 play off teams we've had in the 4 years of existence- only 3 went undefeated and never more than 1 in one season. So, it's best to just imagine them all with a loss - depending on who/when/what - Iowa would still have a shot because it has played a good SOS in a "win out" scenario. Like I said, it's fun to think about, but it's not gonna happen. Just like multiple teams aren't likely going undefeated and the top 4 teams in October aren't likely going to be the same in December.

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

only 1 of those teams is going undefeated if any - of the 16 play off teams we've had in the 4 years of existence- only 3 went undefeated and never more than 1 in one season.

Small sample size, with Bama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Ohio State all still undefeated.

 

[Fryowa]

not really, let's not act like all of those teams are going undefeated cause they're not and LSU and Bama still face each other - if LSU pulled the upset, that's the ONLY way the SEC gets 2 in this season. I don't see it.

only 1 of those teams is going undefeated if any - of the 16 play off teams we've had in the 4 years of existence- only 3 went undefeated and never more than 1 in one season. So, it's best to just imagine them all with a loss - depending on who/when/what - Iowa would still have a shot because it has played a good SOS in a "win out" scenario. Like I said, it's fun to think about, but it's not gonna happen. Just like multiple teams aren't likely going undefeated and the top 4 teams in October aren't likely going to be the same in December.

I guess what I'm getting at is that it doesn't matter what other teams do or if they come from the SEC, ACC, or PAC12, etc. The only way the committee ever takes an Big Ten team not named Michigan or Ohio State, is if they're undefeated and there are no other 1 loss teams in the other 4 conferences (even then I don't think they take a B1G West team). They tried to give the 2016 champs a shot and got a Michigan State team that got blown out and was never in the game.

It also doesn't help that the three best (by far) teams in our league are in the other division.Not only are they way better, but they have the SOS advantage that we couldn't get to if we tried. OSU, Michigan, Penn State, and MSU all play each other every year. No CFP committee is going to consider a bubble team from the B1G whose resume highlights are limited to wins over Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, and Purdue, even with a Wisconsin thrown in there. Not Iowa's fault, but it's a factor nonetheless.

I want to be clear that I'm not condoning the CFP committee. Not by a mile. But, as it sits this is what we have to deal with and Iowa will not be in the playoff in our lifetimes unless they go to an 8 team, qualifier-based playoff. The Dixie Mafia won't let it happen.