To those saying Iowa would have to be undefeated for CFP invite...

[InGoodCo]

Small sample size, with Bama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Ohio State all still undefeated.

it's the only sample size for CFP - but you have decades of sample size of there typically being only 1 undefeated team a season if that.

 

[InGoodCo]

I guess what I'm getting at is that it doesn't matter what other teams do or if they come from the SEC, ACC, or PAC12, etc. The only way the committee ever takes an Big Ten team not named Michigan or Ohio State, is if they're undefeated and there are no other 1 loss teams in the other 4 conferences (even then I don't think they take a B1G West team). They tried to give the 2016 champs a shot and got a Michigan State team that got blown out and was never in the game.

It also doesn't help that the three best (by far) teams in our league are in the other division.Not only are they way better, but they have the SOS advantage that we couldn't get to if we tried. OSU, Michigan, Penn State, and MSU all play each other every year. No CFP committee is going to consider a bubble team from the B1G whose resume highlights are limited to wins over Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, and Purdue, even with a Wisconsin thrown in there. Not Iowa's fault, but it's a factor nonetheless.

I want to be clear that I'm not condoning the CFP committee. Not by a mile. But, as it sits this is what we have to deal with and Iowa will not be in the playoff in our lifetimes unless they go to an 8 team, qualifier-based playoff. The Dixie Mafia won't let it happen.

I get what you are saying, I just think your wrong, it's situational and it ENTIRELY is based off what other teams do. I think it's more delusional to think Iowa wins out than it is that they would be in the playoffs if they did.

 

[Fryowa]

I think it's more delusional to think Iowa wins out than it is that they would be in the playoffs if they did.

Correct.

 

[InGoodCo]

I've watched history repeat itself SO many times it's like groundhog day every year in CFB. Mid October - what are we gonna do if all these teams go undefeated? Could BAMA beat the Browns? and almost like clock work - you see only 1 team if that from the P5 go undefeated.

 

[Northside Hawk]

I've watched history repeat itself SO many times it's like groundhog day every year in CFB. Mid October - what are we gonna do if all these teams go undefeated? Could BAMA beat the Browns? and almost like clock work - you see only 1 team if that from the P5 go undefeated.

To answer the question, no college team will ever be able to beat the worst NFL or NBA team. Go back fifty years and it MAY have been a different story. Lew Alcindor as a college senior, would have been one of the ten best players in the NBA. Some other UCLA players off that team would have been honorable mention all-NBA while in college. That UCLA team probably could have held it's own as a 30-35 win team in the NBA.

Much has changed since then, from mutiple professional expansions to fewer schollies to fewer players staying all four years.

 

[InGoodCo]

To answer the question, no college team will ever be able to beat the worst NFL or NBA team. Go back fifty years and it MAY have been a different story. Lew Alcindor as a college senior, would have been one of the ten best players in the NBA. Some other UCLA players off that team would have been honorable mention all-NBA while in college. That UCLA team probably could have held it's own as a 30-35 win team in the NBA.

Much has changed since then, from mutiple professional expansions to fewer schollies to fewer players staying all four years.

i knew the answer, I wasn't really asking that...but every year, it gets asked and every year it's dumber than the last time they asked. The Browns would win by 50 over Bama. It still doesn't stop dumbs dumbs from talking about it every year around this time. Just like the fact that there is hardly, if ever, multiple undefeated P5 teams.

 

[ModebaSan]

I think a one loss Iowa team gets in. This year we would provide a great storyline. Top 5 nationally ranked defense, explosive offense with TWO of the best TE’s in all of college football and the longest tenured coach in college football. Nick Saban himself said that a top rated TE is the biggest mismatch in all of football. And guess what! We’ve got two of them. Saban would lose sleep trying to figure out how to scheme against Fant and Hockenson. The scheme we are running now is the kind that can beat a team like Alabama. Thats why I think we can win out and make it to the CFP.

 

[4thngoal]

I don't know if we would give Alabama all they can handle, but I have pointed out that this team, with a vertical passing game and a quicker, deeper, more athletic defense would represent in a potential CFP better than the 2015 12-0 team.

I could see a 1990 U of Miami type game if we played 'Bama. In 1990 we stayed within striking distance of the "U" for about two and one half quarters, then they pulled away and won 48-21.

That 1990 team ended up going to the Rose Bowl.

What we are starting to see is a string of last year's OSU type games. If they stay focused, both coaches and players, until January?? Yeah I think we could take Bama.

 

[Fryowa]

Could BAMA beat the Browns?

I wish they’d just go ahead and play that game to get it over with.

When it’s 112-0 Cleveland in the 3rd quarter and five Alabama players have been airlifted to local hospitals maybe everyone would stfu.

 

[HawkeyeTech]

—Wisconsin would have to lose.

—Iowa would have to win out.

—Iowa would have to win the B1G Championship.

—Notre Dame would have to drop at least two games.

The only way the B1G gets in is if OSU wins the title. Period. There’s no way in hell that committee picks Iowa no matter how much sense it makes. No chance. They want blue blood matchups for TV and they’re gonna get it. Until there’s an 8 team playoff, you’re going to see the top 2 SEC teams, ACC champ, and the B1G champ as long as it’s either Michigan or Ohio State. In the odd year you have a Notre Dame or really good PAC12 team, the Big Ten will be watching from their living rooms.

I repeat...THE CFP COMMITTEE DOES NOT WANT THE B1G IN THE PLAYOFF. In the last two merciful appearances our conference has been given, we’ve been outscored 69-0. B1G football is way behind the curve of southern teams and the committee knows it. They don’t want the blowout games, they want dog fights between two SEC or ACC teams that have rabid fan bases ten times the size of ours.

If for some reason OSU falls off, the CFP will be as follows:

Alabama
Clemson
Notre Dame
LSU

If OSU wins out substitute OSU for LSU.

This thread is almost like Nebraska and ISWho fans had a reality-challenged delusional baby. Some of you sound like Lloyd Christmas asking Mary Swanson, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

Jesus.

Unless Bama loses in the SEC championship game to a one loss team or loses their game with LSU and LSU goes on to win the SEC, I guarantee the SEC will only have one team in the playoff. And barring that circumstance, a 12-1 Iowa team would be in.I

Not that I'm holding my breath or anything....

 

[Fryowa]

Unless Bama loses in the SEC championship game to a one loss team or loses their game with LSU and LSU goes on to win the SEC, I guarantee the SEC will only have one team in the playoff. And barring that circumstance, a 12-1 Iowa team would be in.I

Not that I'm holding my breath or anything....

If Iowa is 12-1 at the end of the season (B1G champs), Alabama is undefeated, and LSU has one loss, I will bet you whatever amount of money you're comfortable with that Iowa will not be in. Iowa would get rejected by SOS alone in that scenario. PSU and Wisconsin will be ranked below us (if at all, Wisconsin already is and that scenario would require them to lose at least one more), and that leaves Maryland, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, NIU, Iowa State, and UNI. Not exactly difficult in the eyes of the CFP. Maybe to you, but your perception as an Iowa fan doesn't matter. It's what the committee thinks and we've already seen their bias many times over since they started this thing.

A 12-1 LSU team gets in before a 12-1 Iowa team, even with a CCG. Guarantee it.

It's too bad (on many levels) that I won't get to prove it to you.

 

[seepig]

Maybe time to re-think the "Kirk finds ways to lose games" narrative. Everybody will occasionally lose games as a favorite, that's football after all. The better your team and the more often you are favored, the more frequently it will happen to you.

Iowa and KF were rightfully criticized for their performance as a double-digit favorite from 2006 through 2014. Iowa was 18-0 as a double-digit favorite from '99-'05, but then swooned to 28-11 from '06-early '14 (after the ISU loss, when this article was published). What caused the putrid stretch? Complacency? A rigid, over-conservative approach? Too much fund-raising? Who knows, but it was ugly, and hence the narrative was born.

What have things looked like since then? Well, from 2015 on (3.5 years of data), Iowa is 29-3 as a favorite (90.6% win%). Among P5 teams who have been favored in at least 20 games over that stretch, Iowa is 3rd nationally (behind Clemson, 95.5%, and Alabama, 94.0%).
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/win_trends/?sc=is_fav&range=yearly_since_2015

"Cherry-picker!" you scream, "Of course they look good over that stretch because it included the 2015 undefeated regular season, which we all know was a fluke of the highest magnitude!"

Okay, let's exclude that, and look just at 2016, 2017, and 2018 to date (still 2.5 years of data). Iowa is 18th nationally among P5 in win% as a favorite (85.7%, 18-3), and a couple of the teams ahead of them (Iowa State and S. Carolina) were favored in less than 50% of their games.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/win_trends/?sc=is_fav&range=yearly_since_2016

Interestingly, Iowa is 27th nationally among P5 in win% as an underdog since 2015 (4-10, 29%). Not bad, but below KF's overall average during his tenure (going back to 2003, which is the earliest point in the data base, Iowa is 13th among P5 in win% as a dog, 37.3%).

Time for a narrative change?

Overall stats are well and good and tell a larger story....still doesn't eliminate bad play calling and blunders in key games...and yes everyone has that happen. I'm not an every team fan so I only know what I see in Iowa games. Our O seems to be getting better for sure but that doesn't eliminate the dark years of Greg Davis. It was a terrible hire and the results prove it. No it's not time to change the narrative yet but it's trending.

 

[InGoodCo]

If Iowa is 12-1 at the end of the season (B1G champs), Alabama is undefeated, and LSU has one loss, I will bet you whatever amount of money you're comfortable with that Iowa will not be in. Iowa would get rejected by SOS alone in that scenario. PSU and Wisconsin will be ranked below us (if at all, Wisconsin already is and that scenario would require them to lose at least one more), and that leaves Maryland, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, NIU, Iowa State, and UNI. Not exactly difficult in the eyes of the CFP. Maybe to you, but your perception as an Iowa fan doesn't matter. It's what the committee thinks and we've already seen their bias many times over since they started this thing.

A 12-1 LSU team gets in before a 12-1 Iowa team, even with a CCG. Guarantee it.

It's too bad (on many levels) that I won't get to prove it to you.

McFly

LSU can't be a 1 loss team with Bama being undefeated. That's what I tried to tell you originally. LSU already has a loss and it still plays Bama in the regular season

 

[hwk23]

i knew the answer, I wasn't really asking that...but every year, it gets asked and every year it's dumber than the last time they asked. The Browns would win by 50 over Bama. It still doesn't stop dumbs dumbs from talking about it every year around this time. Just like the fact that there is hardly, if ever, multiple undefeated P5 teams.

Maybe but Alabama has more 1st round draft picks and a better QB than most NFL teams. Cleveland probably pays more though.

 

[CP87]

Overall stats are well and good and tell a larger story....still doesn't eliminate bad play calling and blunders in key games...and yes everyone has that happen. I'm not an every team fan so I only know what I see in Iowa games. Our O seems to be getting better for sure but that doesn't eliminate the dark years of Greg Davis. It was a terrible hire and the results prove it. No it's not time to change the narrative yet but it's trending.

I just want to emphasize 2 aspects of your reply: yes, every coaching staff has blunders, and yes, Iowa seems to be improving in that regard since the end of 2014.

 

[pythagoras]

McFly

!!!

 

[hwk23]

If Iowa is 12-1 at the end of the season (B1G champs), Alabama is undefeated, and LSU has one loss, I will bet you whatever amount of money you're comfortable with that Iowa will not be in. Iowa would get rejected by SOS alone in that scenario. PSU and Wisconsin will be ranked below us (if at all, Wisconsin already is and that scenario would require them to lose at least one more), and that leaves Maryland, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, NIU, Iowa State, and UNI. Not exactly difficult in the eyes of the CFP. Maybe to you, but your perception as an Iowa fan doesn't matter. It's what the committee thinks and we've already seen their bias many times over since they started this thing.

A 12-1 LSU team gets in before a 12-1 Iowa team, even with a CCG. Guarantee it.

It's too bad (on many levels) that I won't get to prove it to you.

A 12-1 LSU would mean they beat Alabama and won the SEC championship. If that happened though they’d probably take the 11-1 Alabama.

 

[Fryowa]

McFly

LSU can't be a 1 loss team with Bama being undefeated. That's what I tried to tell you originally. LSU already has a loss and it still plays Bama in the regular season

Noted that I was mistaken. And what’s worse is I’m sober as a judge.

Well, not that one judg.......oops.

But...

Let’s hypothetical this, which is my point. If there were a circumstance where an undefeated Alabama team and a one-loss [insert blue blood SEC team] were up against a 12-1 Clemson/FSU/Notre Dame/Oklahoma/whoever and a 12-1 Iowa B1G champ, not gonna happen.

Michigan, PSU or OSU, yep. But not us (or Wisconsin). Which is why they need to go to 5 + 3 at large. We play in a League of Dweebs that keeps getting worse every year and our OOC is 2 FCS schools plus the clowns (they’re not even close to what people are cracking them up to be). To go undefeated in the East you have to beat whichever 3 out of PSU, UM, MSU, or OSU you play. Until there’s a little parity in the B1G no one from our side of the fence is going to go to the dance.

I’ve been here much too long so I’ll let you guys go on the attack.

 

[Northside Hawk]

What we are starting to see is a string of last year's OSU type games. If they stay focused, both coaches and players, until January?? Yeah I think we could take Bama.

Alabama, Saban, with a month to prepare. We would have our hands full to say the least.

Catch them right after LSU and immediately before Auburn and we could theoretically have a chance but we would we seventeen point dogs at least. Stanley would get beat to a pulp.

 

[Mademyaccount4u]

Doesn’t seem possible.

Sounds more like Bull Shit than Jack.