InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
is 39 bad?
NIT BRACKETOLOGY
- Thread starter ChosenChildren
- Start date
is 39 bad?
Realistic best case scenario would be 6-2. Winning all home games and stealing two road wins say Minnesota and Maryland puts RPI at 64. This would leave them likely needing at least two BTT wins. So, there is a lot of work to do but to your point winning the BTT is not the only way they get in.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
It's all about the RPI formula. 50% of the RPI score is your opponents win percentage, look at the records of some of ISU opponents:
Gonzaga 23-0
Cincinnati 20-2
Baylor 19-2
Kansas 20-2
West Virginia 18-4
For RPI calculation you are better off losing to Gonzaga on a neutral court (or on the road) than beating a Delaware State at home.
For calculating their own win percentage (25% of RPI score) ISU is 3-1 in neutral court games, which counts as a full win, and has 2 road wins that count as 1.4 wins (home wins are .6). Iowa is 1-2 in neutral court games and they just won their first road game.
And as a fan, why would you not want to watch them play games?
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Because the NIT is essentially worthless. 1/2 the teams don't seem to want to be there. It is no real test anymore. Not everyone has to be a fan according to your standards. About any big ten game...yes. Any NCAA no matter how bad the game? No
I have the same question in reverse. How can a fan want to see this game or these games? Especially with the Dance going on?
I'm a bigger fan of Hawkeye basketball than college basketball. I watch every crappy non conference game too. I can't shut the TV off when we're down 30 and still watch when we're up 30 to see what the end of the bench looks like. That's not the same thing as I was referring to tho. What I mean is how could someone choose no game over any game at all? Especially when no game means the season is over.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Because the NIT is essentially worthless. 1/2 the teams don't seem to want to be there. It is no real test anymore. Not everyone has to be a fan according to your standards. About any big ten game...yes. Any NCAA....no.
Ok makes sense. As the kids have gotten older maybe I have less time.
I'm not trying to pull the "I'm a better fan than you" card. I just couldn't imagine if I had my choice to be done with the basketball season or not be done, I would choose be done. Even with Lick I didn't make the conscious decision to "want" the season to be done. If I didn't care enough to watch, I just wouldn't watch.
Hawkalum2002
Well-Known Member
While I'd agree some teams don't really show up for the NIT, not unlike bowl games, when they didn't reach their goal (Iowa in 1998 and 2002 are prime examples), as a fan I'd still take all the games I can get. Four years ago our team had a lot of trouble winning on the road, only won at NW and PSU, and lost four other ones close in the B10. But then we played at Virginia in the quarterfinals of the NIT, played great, and got that monkey off our back. Sure enough we became a pretty good road team the last three years, but it had to start somewhere. This years team also has trouble winning on the road, so the more games against decent competition the better. Of course if we lose the last four B10 road games, we probably aren't in the NIT anyway so it may be moot. But an extra road game with a team of our same level makes for a good barometer going into next year.
JG10Hawk
Well-Known Member
ssckelley is right. The RPI formula uses your team's winning percentage * 25%, your opponents' winning percentage * 50%, and your opponents' opponents' winning percentage * 25%. Home wins/losses are worth 0.6 wins/1.4 losses in the calculation, neutral court wins/losses are worth 1 each, and road wins/losses are worth 1.4 wins/0.6 losses. The formula ignores the games you played against your opponents in calculating the opponents' winning percentage.
In other words, road wins help your RPI tremendously, especially when it involves beating a team with a good record that has a lot of road wins, and even more so if that team plays a tough schedule. This is exactly why it is better to play decent mid/high major teams as opposed to small conference teams out of conference. If playing a small conference team, you better hope it's against one that has a good chance to win their conference, which means more road wins in the calculation.
All 4 of the remaining road games would be quality wins. Minnesota, Michigan State, Maryland, and Wisconsin are all top 50 RPI teams. Just playing those games helps Iowa's RPI, splitting them would really help. There is definitely still a chance for this team to get into the bubble discussion. The key is to win a couple of road games down the stretch and take care of business at home. The selection committee tends to like teams that have been hot.
That said, a NIT birth is looking likely and is not a bad thing for this team considering where they were just a few weeks ago. Having a young team make a little run in the NIT could help springboard the team next year.
In other words, road wins help your RPI tremendously, especially when it involves beating a team with a good record that has a lot of road wins, and even more so if that team plays a tough schedule. This is exactly why it is better to play decent mid/high major teams as opposed to small conference teams out of conference. If playing a small conference team, you better hope it's against one that has a good chance to win their conference, which means more road wins in the calculation.
All 4 of the remaining road games would be quality wins. Minnesota, Michigan State, Maryland, and Wisconsin are all top 50 RPI teams. Just playing those games helps Iowa's RPI, splitting them would really help. There is definitely still a chance for this team to get into the bubble discussion. The key is to win a couple of road games down the stretch and take care of business at home. The selection committee tends to like teams that have been hot.
That said, a NIT birth is looking likely and is not a bad thing for this team considering where they were just a few weeks ago. Having a young team make a little run in the NIT could help springboard the team next year.
"Essentially worthless?" Did you pay attention to this fanbase a few years ago? The NIT run actually lit a fire of support and enthusiasm for the team during a time that was pretty down. It certainly wouldn't have been better with the team sitting at home in late March doing nothing.
trj
Well-Known Member
Deace brought this up in a podcast last week. This year's NCAA tournament will be loaded with bubble teams from power 5 conferences. There seems like a lot of teams are at that 14-8/13-7 mark. I am trying to decide if that is a good thing or a bad thing in regards to Iowa making the NIT.
JG10Hawk
Well-Known Member
That's where the bulk of the calculation comes in. 75% of the formula is based off of opponent winning % (50%) and opponents' opponent winning % (25%). The other teams in the small school's conference most likely will have bad non conference records which in turn hurts 75% of the calculation for the small school with 28 wins. That's why you end up seeing teams from bigger conferences have better RPIs than those from smaller conferences even though the smaller schools may have better records.
Yea I guess that would add up. Thanks.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
Screw that...I'm a better fan than all of ya!
During the Lick years I tried to be a good fan but I literally fell asleep trying to watch those games.
But if Iowa got selected for the NIT I'll watch. I enjoy watching these young players get better as they get more experience.
rdawsoniii
Well-Known Member
The NIT is far from "worthless", especially since it isn't as easy to get into it as it used to be.
Screw that...I'm a better fan than all of ya!
During the Lick years I tried to be a good fan but I literally fell asleep trying to watch those games.
But if Iowa got selected for the NIT I'll watch. I enjoy watching these young players get better as they get more experience.
Those years were even harder to watch because that was the beginning of the Big 10 network and my cable provider didn't have it. I would go bars to watch the games when I actually remembered they were on.
