JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
I do this every spring and say that it's way too early to make a prediction but I am going to any way. I am so much more qualified to do this on this day, April 15th, because Ive seen one whole practice so now I am an expert.
OK, I'm not and even if I would have seen every practice up until now it wouldn't make me any more intelligent as it relates to Iowa's chances in the Big Ten this year.
With that garbage out of the way, I am going to lump Iowa's 2013 schedule into categories to begin with; likely win, likely loss and tossup.
Northern Illinois: Toss Up. They lose their talented defensive line but have a dual threat QB who is a playmaker
Missouri State: Win. It's good that Iowa squeezes this one in ahead of the ISU game so the quarterbacks can keep working on getting the kinks out.
at Iowa State: Toss Up. The best thing I see here is Iowa will have played two games before facing the Cyclones where ISU will have had one game and then the bye week. Fans and coaches from both sides will argue that their scenario is actually better for their team's chances for this game. Quite frankly, this may be one of the rare occasions where each team might be right given their own situation. Iowa's quarterbacks need game reps, so I am glad Iowa has two games. Better Iowa teams have gone into Ames and lost to Iowa State teams who did not make bowl games. I think the loser of this game is out of the bowl picture.
Western Michigan: Win. It had better be a win, otherwise it's Central Michigan from last year. You can't lose games like this.
at Minnesota: Loss. The Gophers are not going to be great, but neither is Iowa. It's on the road with a young QB and the game will be a sellout since it won't be 5 degrees yet.
Michigan State: Toss Up. They are still going to be stingy on defense and tough. It will be another low scoring affair.
Bye: Feeling good about Iowa's chances here.
at Ohio State: Loss. How many will Urban Meyer choose to hang on Iowa? Will it be 60? When was the last time an Iowa opponent scored 60 points in a game? Michigan State hung 49 on Iowa in 1999 and that may have been in the first half. Ohio State scored 56 on Iowa in 1995. You have to go back to 1994 to find the answer; Penn State and 61 points. I think the Buckeyes might do it this year.
Northwestern: Loss. Yes, it's at Kinnick but I think Northwestern is going to be pretty darned good this year, at least for a Big Ten team.
Wisconsin: Toss Up. ONLY because I am not yet sure what they are going to look like under a new head coach. I don't have an 'Iowa win' lean in this one.
at Purdue: Loss. They aren't great. I don't think Iowa will be, either. I don't see Iowa winning a road game this year and they have only won once on the road in each of the last two seasons. One of those trips was at Purdue two years ago.
Michigan: Loss. They will drop off, but they have more talent.
at Nebraska: Loss.
So there are six games where I see a loss at this time. I see just two games where I'd feel comfortable writing down a win and four games I have marked as toss ups. You may disagree with some of my labels on these games. I'd lean loss at Iowa State and win at home against NIU if I were forced to make a pick there, as well as a loss to Wisconsin and win against Michigan State.
6-6 would seem to be the 'high water mark' I see for this team right now given this schedule, but I'd feel much more comfortable picking 5-7.
That said, there are still four more months worth of Hawktimism consumption out there, right?
OK, I'm not and even if I would have seen every practice up until now it wouldn't make me any more intelligent as it relates to Iowa's chances in the Big Ten this year.
With that garbage out of the way, I am going to lump Iowa's 2013 schedule into categories to begin with; likely win, likely loss and tossup.
Northern Illinois: Toss Up. They lose their talented defensive line but have a dual threat QB who is a playmaker
Missouri State: Win. It's good that Iowa squeezes this one in ahead of the ISU game so the quarterbacks can keep working on getting the kinks out.
at Iowa State: Toss Up. The best thing I see here is Iowa will have played two games before facing the Cyclones where ISU will have had one game and then the bye week. Fans and coaches from both sides will argue that their scenario is actually better for their team's chances for this game. Quite frankly, this may be one of the rare occasions where each team might be right given their own situation. Iowa's quarterbacks need game reps, so I am glad Iowa has two games. Better Iowa teams have gone into Ames and lost to Iowa State teams who did not make bowl games. I think the loser of this game is out of the bowl picture.
Western Michigan: Win. It had better be a win, otherwise it's Central Michigan from last year. You can't lose games like this.
at Minnesota: Loss. The Gophers are not going to be great, but neither is Iowa. It's on the road with a young QB and the game will be a sellout since it won't be 5 degrees yet.
Michigan State: Toss Up. They are still going to be stingy on defense and tough. It will be another low scoring affair.
Bye: Feeling good about Iowa's chances here.
at Ohio State: Loss. How many will Urban Meyer choose to hang on Iowa? Will it be 60? When was the last time an Iowa opponent scored 60 points in a game? Michigan State hung 49 on Iowa in 1999 and that may have been in the first half. Ohio State scored 56 on Iowa in 1995. You have to go back to 1994 to find the answer; Penn State and 61 points. I think the Buckeyes might do it this year.
Northwestern: Loss. Yes, it's at Kinnick but I think Northwestern is going to be pretty darned good this year, at least for a Big Ten team.
Wisconsin: Toss Up. ONLY because I am not yet sure what they are going to look like under a new head coach. I don't have an 'Iowa win' lean in this one.
at Purdue: Loss. They aren't great. I don't think Iowa will be, either. I don't see Iowa winning a road game this year and they have only won once on the road in each of the last two seasons. One of those trips was at Purdue two years ago.
Michigan: Loss. They will drop off, but they have more talent.
at Nebraska: Loss.
So there are six games where I see a loss at this time. I see just two games where I'd feel comfortable writing down a win and four games I have marked as toss ups. You may disagree with some of my labels on these games. I'd lean loss at Iowa State and win at home against NIU if I were forced to make a pick there, as well as a loss to Wisconsin and win against Michigan State.
6-6 would seem to be the 'high water mark' I see for this team right now given this schedule, but I'd feel much more comfortable picking 5-7.
That said, there are still four more months worth of Hawktimism consumption out there, right?
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Are you talking about the Hawkeyes?
