McCaffery needs to own up

[Adam]

None of those teams are serious contenders, but yes I missed them. To get there, Duke had one of their slowest teams ever. Xavier...not a serious contender and likely not Oregon. Butler is one of the fundamentally sound teams ever. Fran's teams aren't. Therefore the PG covers a lot of weakness.

Before your time I guess, Ronnie Lester and Kenny Arnold made Special K, Steve Waite and Kevin Boyle look like world beaters. Sound D starts at the top. Baylor which isn't great will expose SC. Butler has had an easy road as had the Ducks.

I get what you are saying. Possible? of course. A serious contender? I think back to the 06 Iowa team. Tough as nails PG? Yes. Results? That was Iowa's last realistic chance to do damage in the dance.

I'm not arguing the merit of having a good point guard. I am contesting that it is a requirement to be in title contention. IMO you need 2 special players to be in contention. 3 special players to be "realistic". If you have 4 then you are a "favorite" to win a title. If and only if you have 5 special players are you a lock to win it. I.E. Michigan's fab 5 or Kentucky a few years back. Also IMO we have 1 special player. He is...drum roll.....Jordan Bohannon. I think we have 2 other players that are very close. Cook and Baer.

Cook needs to get softer hands and work on catching the post feeds. Way too many times the rock bounces right off of Cooks bricks for mitts. He also needs to develop a mid range jumper or 3pt jumper. Boxing out is also on that list. His post power moves are excellent, but would also like to see him develope a few other moves by time he is an upperclassmen. Baer is closest to being truly special. He needs to work on conditioning and strength. He started displaying some recent work in penetrating the lane. He actually seemed to do it with ease. I look for that to continue and for him to diversify what he can do with the ball once hevery is in the paint. Find an open shooter or cutter and or a floater/ finish hard at the rim. If these 2 guys make the desired improvements that will give us 3 special players.

We have a few other guys that are showing the foundation needed to become special. Moss, Pemsel and Ellingson could all take the leap and really become special. Moss I have the most faith in since he is athletic and in Fran's particular wheelhouse of skill coaching. I will also point out that D.C. Gatorade player of the year Garza and Indiana top 5 player of the year finalist Nunge are coming in and both have the potential to become special. I won't even bring up that Fran's oldest is coming and happens to also play Fran's playing position. I get more and more confident that it isn't a matter of if we get there but more a matter of how soon. I think that we have the potential to be special next year. I feel most hawk fans should see what's brewing and be optimistic instead of pessimistic. The past of Iowa is gone. The future is here. If you want the players to be confident that they compete. We should all start by being confident for them. Doubt is contagious.

 

[Joshbrown]

Look guys it's plain and simple. Fran is a great offensive coach. He really has shown how he can take average players and turn themy into legit B1G scorers. His crux is defense. If you want to fire a great offensive coach because of lack luster defense then be careful what you wish for. Licklitter was a good defensive coach. How fun was it to watch his teams? I propose that Fran be pressured to bring in an assistant that is a defensive guru. That should help the over defense and not cripple the amazing offensive strides that we have made. See, simple right?

Wut?

When Barta hires a coach at Iowa and pays him millions he only has two choices: good at offense - or - good at defense?

I'm pretty sure there's a third option that includes coaches good at both things.

 

[Robowe]

Wut?

When Barta hires a coach at Iowa and pays him millions he only has two choices: good at offense - or - good at defense?

I'm pretty sure there's a third option that includes coaches good at both things.

I believe he is referring to style. In both sports, limiting possessions will result in lower scoring games. Faster pace makes for more possessions and more scoring. It doesn't mean the coaches don't teach the other side, but emphasis is different depending on the style.

 

[NikeHawk21]

None of those teams are serious contenders, but yes I missed them. To get there, Duke had one of their slowest teams ever. Xavier...not a serious contender and likely not Oregon. Butler is one of the fundamentally sound teams ever. Fran's teams aren't. Therefore the PG covers a lot of weakness.

Before your time I guess, Ronnie Lester and Kenny Arnold made Special K, Steve Waite and Kevin Boyle look like world beaters. Sound D starts at the top. Baylor which isn't great will expose SC. Butler has had an easy road as had the Ducks.

I get what you are saying. Possible? of course. A serious contender? I think back to the 06 Iowa team. Tough as nails PG? Yes. Results? That was Iowa's last realistic chance to do damage in the dance.

Purdue's PGs are not quick.

Wisconsin has been to four consecutive sweet 16s and Koenig isn't an overly quick guard. They play great team defense.

Throw Xavier & Butler in the mix and at least 25% if not more of the sweet 16 teams don't have quick PGs.

Good effort.

 

[Adam]

Wut?

When Barta hires a coach at Iowa and pays him millions he only has two choices: good at offense - or - good at defense?

I'm pretty sure there's a third option that includes coaches good at both things.

Most coaches excel at one or the other. Pretty hard to be a guru at both sides. That is what assistants are for. A great head coach gets the right staff to compensate for areas they aren't proficient in. You think Saban is both a defensive and offensive guru? My point was Fran's assistants are more so offensive coaches. With the recruiting where it's at they could afford to drop an offensive coach for a defensive coach. I know it's not as common in BBall as it is in football, but Fran needs a DC.

 

[PCHawk]

With even average defense....this year's team was a whole other beast. They showed it in flashes.

The defense will improve, I think by a lot. If we can replace Jok's 20 ppg....I could see 23+ wins and a 9 seed or better in the Dance.

More than likely, the shots Jok took in the past won't turn into shot click violations next year. That means we need to replace those shots with shots that are made at close to the same percentage Jok made them at. If Jok took 10 shots per game and shot 5% better than we will next year on those 10 attempts, we are only looking at a couple points per game less. Factor in how many turnovers he had and how bad he was on defense, I would say we will be fine.

 

[PCHawk]

But, the emphasis on speed is not everything. Juwan Evans (PG from Oklahoma State who just put his name into the NBA draft) who is as fast as anyone in college was rated almost the same as Bohannon defensively this year (108.2 vs 110.3). Sure, it helps to have speed, but it doesn't solve everything on defense.

With a team like Iowa, the defense depends on rotations into the lane when the defense breaks down and then back out to the shooters. The freshman were not good at that yet and Jok was not a good defender either. I expect the defense to improve with experience as it has in the past for Iowa.

So many people think quick player = good defender. That'd not even close to right.

 

[Adam]

So many people think quick player = good defender. That'd not even close to right.

People have been addicted to speed since it was discovered.

 

[CP87]

Most coaches excel at one or the other. Pretty hard to be a guru at both sides. That is what assistants are for. A great head coach gets the right staff to compensate for areas they aren't proficient in. You think Saban is both a defensive and offensive guru? My point was Fran's assistants are more so offensive coaches. With the recruiting where it's at they could afford to drop an offensive coach for a defensive coach. I know it's not as common in BBall as it is in football, but Fran needs a DC.

Just saw something about how Beilein hired a defensive guru last off-season, which has played a big role in their ascendance this year.

 

[tksirius]

Just saw something about how Beilein hired a defensive guru last off-season, which has played a big role in their ascendance this year.

"New assistant Billy Donlon, who joined the Michigan staff this offseason after a six-year run as head coach at Wright State, is the man Beilein is turning to for defensive expertise. The Wolverines barely made the NCAA Tournament last season but return plenty of experience — and they could certainly take a big step forward in 2016-17 if Donlon can help them become a stingier group."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...assistant-to-help-michigans-defense/91508190/

 

[Adam]

Just saw something about how Beilein hired a defensive guru last off-season, which has played a big role in their ascendance this year.

Hopefully Fran was paying attention. I think we could benefit the same way. I will be sure to bring it up at the next I club event.

 

[seepig]

Last season Iowa ranked 29th in 3 point percentage only giving up 31% and were #1 in conference play.

Ok I didn't know we were talking about last year's team but you may be referring to my EVER point regarding Fran teams. Again I think a useful stat would be to know how many 3's were uncontested as a percentage. But yes someone else said it we had a "better" team last year largely due to experience so I certainly believe the stat so no arguement.

 

[seepig]

Our biggest problem on defense is post help. It's unreal how far they step up to help, leaving their man wide open under the rim. Cook is horrible at that. He either doesn't help at all and gives up a layup or he helps to far out and gives up a layup. Just take one step up to stop penetration but don't give your man behind you 5 feet of open space.

He is a freshman...I believe he will learn unlike Jok who never learned.

 

[HawkGold]

I get all that. Though not a pro FM guy, i'm not suggesting he go. He's earned it. One can't get around the fact that when the point of the D starts a reaction, it puts the other players in automatic mode of reacting rather than dictating. There are so many teams left that flat out are disruptive on D. Iowa does not compare.

I believe that TCU's point total was their 3rd highest total of the year and highest on the road. I think, but haven't look, that you will see that Iowa fairly often has been on the high end of output by opponents. Defense is another matter, but Iowa's output against VA was among their lowest, but a different subject.

I think we all can agree that FM doesn't not teach defensive fundamentals very well, including posture, at least compared to say Beilein. One way to cover that up is through speed. Is the easiest way. If he was a good D Coach, then OK, maybe...but he's not.

 

[NikeHawk21]

I get all that. Though not a pro FM guy, i'm not suggesting he go. He's earned it. One can't get around the fact that when the point of the D starts a reaction, it puts the other players in automatic mode of reacting rather than dictating. There are so many teams left that flat out are disruptive on D. Iowa does not compare.

I believe that TCU's point total was their 3rd highest total of the year and highest on the road. I think, but haven't look, that you will see that Iowa fairly often has been on the high end of output by opponents. Defense is another matter, but Iowa's output against VA was among their lowest, but a different subject.

I think we all can agree that FM doesn't not teach defensive fundamentals very well, including posture, at least compared to say Beilein. One way to cover that up is through speed. Is the easiest way. If he was a good D Coach, then OK, maybe...but he's not.

Wrong again. Beilein is not know as a defensive coach. He's known as an offensive guru. That's why he hired a defensive minded coach.

Here's UM's adjusted D in recent years:

2017 - 73
2016 - 95
2015 - 99
2014 - 88
2013 - 39

Do you ever say anything that is correct?

 

[Knight78]

Iowa's Scoring Defense since Fran McCaffery has been at Iowa:

'16/'17= Ranking currently at 299th (78.1 points per game)
'15/'16= Ranking: 107th (69.3 points per game)
'14/'15= Ranking: 64th (62.3 points per game)
'13/'14= Ranking 184th (70.3 points per game)
'12/'13= Ranking 75th (62.8 points per game)
'11/'12= Ranking 292nd (72.5 points per game)
'10/'11= Ranking 181st (68.1 points per game)

Average ranking is 171st. Average points per game allowed= 69.05

We haven't been ranked in the top 60 in scoring defense since Fran McCaffery has been at Iowa for 7 seasons. He's not a good defensive coach, period.

With the running style that Fran coaches, we never will be ranked in the top 60 in scoring defense. There are simply too many possessions in a game for that to happen. Oh, wait.... you don't think that the players will get better do you?

 

[Knight78]

Iowa's Scoring Defense since Fran McCaffery has been at Iowa:

'16/'17= Ranking currently at 299th (78.1 points per game)
'15/'16= Ranking: 107th (69.3 points per game)
'14/'15= Ranking: 64th (62.3 points per game)
'13/'14= Ranking 184th (70.3 points per game)
'12/'13= Ranking 75th (62.8 points per game)
'11/'12= Ranking 292nd (72.5 points per game)
'10/'11= Ranking 181st (68.1 points per game)

Average ranking is 171st. Average points per game allowed= 69.05

We haven't been ranked in the top 60 in scoring defense since Fran McCaffery has been at Iowa for 7 seasons. He's not a good defensive coach, period.

And here's the complete story (offense and defense) because it isn't just one or the other that wins you games.
Sourced from sportsreference.com

The Lick years:

- In 2007-2008 Iowa was #8 in opponent's points, giving up 1857 (58.0) points. We were #313 in points scored with 1794 (56.1). We finished 13-19.
- In 2008-2009 Iowa was #33 in opponent's points, giving up 1908 (59.6) points. We were #275 in points scored with 1927 (60.2). We finished 15-17.
- In 2009-2010 Iowa was #104 in opponent's points, giving up 2112 (66.0) points. We were #285 in points scored with 1937 (60.5). We finished 10-22.

The Fran years:

- In 2010-2011 Iowa was #118 in opponent's points, giving up 2110 (68.1) points. We were #226 in points scored with 2084 (67.2). We finished 11-20.
- In 2011-2012 Iowa was #336 in opponent's points, giving up 2537 (72.5) points. We were #41 in points scored with 2555 (73.0). We finished 18-17.
- In 2012-2013 Iowa was #314 in opponent's points, giving up 2388 (62.8) points. We were #26 in points scored with 2665 (70.1). We finished 25-13.
- In 2013-2014 Iowa was #212 in opponent's points, giving up 2321 (70.3) points. We were #35 in points scored with 2689 (81.5). We finished 20-13.
- In 2014-2015 Iowa was #147 in opponent's points, giving up 2119 (62.3) points. We were #84 in points scored with 2372 (69.8). We finished 22-12.
- In 2015-2016 Iowa was #130 in opponent's points, giving up 2303 (69.8) points. We were #97 in points scored with 2561 (77.6). We finished 22-11.
- This year Iowa was #330 in opponent's points, giving up 2654 (78.1) points. We were #38 in points scored with 2738 (80.5). We finished 19-15.

This year's team was very similar statistically to the 2011-2012 team except that the 20-11-2012 team was never really in the NCAA discussion. If we can keep our point totals relatively high and not regress as a team offensively (like last year's seniors seemed to) we could very well have a very good team for the next few years.

 

[DDThompson]

Wut?

When Barta hires a coach at Iowa and pays him millions he only has two choices: good at offense - or - good at defense?

I'm pretty sure there's a third option that includes coaches good at both things.

I could copy/paste eDEF numbers that show Iowa has that third option. It's been done several times by others but it does not fit the narrative so it doesn't matter.

 

[hawkeyemark]

I tend to agree with the view expressed in this thread that points per game gives a skewed view of how you play defense because it doesn't account for pace. Knight's post above gives a pretty accurate picture of how playing at such a fast pace puts pressure on you to score. I actually thought at one time based on the early recruiting that Fran wanted a team that plays defense first and then tries to push tempo based on defensive stops. At times we do play like that but the make up of the present team reflects his emphasis on offense.

I thought the Hawks ended the regular season playing as well as anybody in the conference. Then in the BTT we let Indiana dictate just a torrid pace and we couldn't keep up with those athletes and played token defense in the process for the most part. Piss poor defense doomed us in the NIT and the TCU game looked like one of those non-conference games where we just try to outscore people. We looked very free-wheeling and at least one of the turnovers resulted from Bohannon heaving a pass 3/4 of the length of the court to Cook which he couldn't handle.

This team didn't look ready for prime time this post season which it becomes very easy to attribute to youth. Having seen this movie before I'll take a wait and see approach before I get too excited about us progressing any further.

 

[Adam]

And here's the complete story (offense and defense) because it isn't just one or the other that wins you games.
Sourced from sportsreference.com

The Lick years:

- In 2007-2008 Iowa was #8 in opponent's points, giving up 1857 (58.0) points. We were #313 in points scored with 1794 (56.1). We finished 13-19.
- In 2008-2009 Iowa was #33 in opponent's points, giving up 1908 (59.6) points. We were #275 in points scored with 1927 (60.2). We finished 15-17.
- In 2009-2010 Iowa was #104 in opponent's points, giving up 2112 (66.0) points. We were #285 in points scored with 1937 (60.5). We finished 10-22.

The Fran years:

- In 2010-2011 Iowa was #118 in opponent's points, giving up 2110 (68.1) points. We were #226 in points scored with 2084 (67.2). We finished 11-20.
- In 2011-2012 Iowa was #336 in opponent's points, giving up 2537 (72.5) points. We were #41 in points scored with 2555 (73.0). We finished 18-17.
- In 2012-2013 Iowa was #314 in opponent's points, giving up 2388 (62.8) points. We were #26 in points scored with 2665 (70.1). We finished 25-13.
- In 2013-2014 Iowa was #212 in opponent's points, giving up 2321 (70.3) points. We were #35 in points scored with 2689 (81.5). We finished 20-13.
- In 2014-2015 Iowa was #147 in opponent's points, giving up 2119 (62.3) points. We were #84 in points scored with 2372 (69.8). We finished 22-12.
- In 2015-2016 Iowa was #130 in opponent's points, giving up 2303 (69.8) points. We were #97 in points scored with 2561 (77.6). We finished 22-11.
- This year Iowa was #330 in opponent's points, giving up 2654 (78.1) points. We were #38 in points scored with 2738 (80.5). We finished 19-15.

This year's team was very similar statistically to the 2011-2012 team except that the 20-11-2012 team was never really in the NCAA discussion. If we can keep our point totals relatively high and not regress as a team offensively (like last year's seniors seemed to) we could very well have a very good team for the next few years.

Nice breakdown. That really painted a pretty fair portrait. Next year's team will have the firepower to at least average 75-78 points a game range. If we get the defense back to averaging less than 70 allowed we will be in business. If anybody takes a big leap like Fran usually finds someone that will we could be scoring 80 average again. Then we are talking about a team that could really be positioned nicely.