Looking Ahead: My thoughts on Iowa State

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Solid win for ISU against a team many feel will win their division in the MAC.

-Ben Lamaak is a solid center prospect..Got out on an LB to break A-Rob's long touchdown run and did a good job in pass protection. I thought on the whole, ISU's OL had a good first game. That being said, it was expected from this unit, which returned so much experience. However, you have to give them credit as Jerry Kill has had some solid defensive units at NIU and they returned some firepower as well.

-Austen Arnaud was mostly good, but where he still seems to be lacking in growth is recognizing when linebackers drop back into zone coverage. Both of his interceptions came in that setting on Thursday; backers take a step in then drift back into the zone. His first INT of the game was tipped by a backer underneath, who had drifted back, and a defensive back came up with the pick. There was just the one ISU receiver in the area and five NIU players. Similar with the pick in the second half; didn't read the backer dropping back into zone coverage and didn't get it over his head.

It's not an easy throw to make, and one that James Vandenberg struggled with last year, which is a big reason why I think Kirk Ferentz did not try to attack with 50 seconds left in regulation. JV had thrown a pick six where he didn't get the ball over the head of the backer dropping back, but it was called back due to penalty. He had a ball thrown to Moeaki into triple coverage, with a backer dropping, that was tipped up and Tony came down with it, and one real pick if memory serves, in that 'bracket throw' type of situation. You have to be certain you can get it over the head of the backer and in front of the safety, and that takes time. Arnaud has had that time, he is going to be the 2nd all time leading passer in ISU history sometime during the Iowa game if he didnt get there tonight. This might be the sort of thing that you either fix on the driving range (the out of season) or you just are who you are. I love the kid, great person...but this is a very important area that he is still struggling with, and Iowa's defense is not going to be the tonic as they drop a lot of backers into zone looks.

AA showed some fleet feet and good speed and he is a threat with the ball on the zone read play. He made some good throws, too...but had some balls sail on him like we saw last year...for the most part he seemed to keep his emotions in check, as much as you can tell from the couch. ISU's receivers are healthy this year, something Iowa didn't see last year.

-ISU's defense played better than I thought they would...perhaps that is just going to be a theme for them under Wally Burnham, as they were very opportunistic last year. I liked what I saw of Waukee's Jake Knott; as many have been saying, he is going to be good...but that is down the road. He is aggressive, which many young players are..I think ISU came into this game looking to run blitz and stack the LOS a bit, as NIU is a power run team, so perhaps this was a one off game plan...but it looked awfully familiar to me...and the ISU young LB corps should be very susceptible to play action, which is Iowa's forte. TE and WR drags might be there if ISU's LB's play that way against Iowa...getting David Sims back for the Iowa game will be a boost for them, but Zac Sandvig did a good job in relief.

-NIU's QB was very poor, and that is putting it nicely.

ISU only had to punt once...that's a good thing on two fronts. It's great to only have to punt once, because it means you are moving the ball (Over 400 yards, 25 first downs, 6-13 on 3rd downs). The second reason that was good for ISU is because punter has been a concern for them all camp, and the one time they punted on Thursday was an 18 yard shank that made its way to the stands.

-I think that ISU can be run on up the gut. NIU averaged 4.3 yards per crack, but ISU did a good job tackling and keeping short gains short and not letting missed tackles develop into long games...that's a Paul Rhoads emphasis and he is a good teacher.

-ISU averaged just 3.7 yards per rush. Take out A-Rob's 63 yard run and that averaged drops to 2.08 yards per rush...the defense ISU faces next week is going to be a lot better than what they faced on Thursday night. A-Rob had 18 carries for 34 yards, and 1 carry for 63. It won't be as easy for Lamaak to reach LB's next week.

All this being said, ISU showed first game rust after a fast start, they had a long run by Arnaud wiped off the board and let a few prime scoring opportunities go by the wayside with some penalties and turnovers. NIU did the same, but this was a good first win for ISU against an opponent that will be much better than what Iowa faces on Saturday. Their offense has some bite..still not sure whether or not to believe in their defense; I think they can be roughed up on the inside and play action should be a challenge for them early on in the careers of their young LB corps.
 
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One more thing to add...I am a big fan of TE Franklin...he can scoot...a very good weapon and you cannot lose sight of him..should be a mismatch for most LB's that cover him
 
All in all, I seen enough to be slightly nervous, they clean up those turnovers and they played a heck of a game. When they got the offence flowing it moved pretty well. If I was a Cyclone fan, I'd think it could of been better, but I'd be happy with the performance. Two picks by Arnaud were bonehead plays in bonehead situations, but the key stat is 27/36 if they get that production out of Arnaud Clones are going to be succesful more often then not.
 
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All in all, I seen enough to be slightly nervous, they clean up those turnovers and they played a heck of a game. When they got the offence flowing it moved pretty well. If I was a Cyclone fan, I'd think it could of been better, but I'd be happy with the performance.

I think their offense can move the ball between the 20's against Iowa enough to be a concern. But they have done that most years Iowa has played them..its in the redzone where things get a lot more crowded and the space you use at midfield gets constricted due to the boundary acting as another defender. Iowa's defense gets more aggressive in those confined spaces...thus, ISU has not scored a TD against Iowa since 2006, and Iowa has allowed the fewest TD's from scrimmage (34) of any team in America the last two years combined (tied with USC)
 
I'm interested to see how Parker will use Clayborne...last year, he dropped him back in coverage a good bit and I think it really caused problems for Arnaud. I'm guessing that this year they may pin his ears back and send him after Arnaud in the backfield...but its hard to outguess what the crafty Norm will come up with. Inside the 20's is the key to everything for ISU's offense...and I think the best weapon down there will be Arnaud and the option read keeper play/QB option run. The kid is big and has good feet when he runs.

Should be a good game, I hope, but I certainly fear that Iowa's offense is going to be able to run right at ISU's defense...thus forcing the safeties up...and then killing the Cyclones with the deep playaction throw. Having Sims back helps but the key is going to be ISU's ability to stop the run WITHOUT bringing the safeties up tight (as they were doing tonite).
 
I think their offense can move the ball between the 20's against Iowa enough to be a concern. But they have done that most years Iowa has played them..its in the redzone where things get a lot more crowded and the space you use at midfield gets constricted due to the boundary acting as another defender. Iowa's defense gets more aggressive in those confined spaces...thus, ISU has not scored a TD against Iowa since 2006, and Iowa has allowed the fewest TD's from scrimmage (34) of any team in America the last two years combined (tied with USC)

So far tonight USC has given up four TD's.
 
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Should be a good game, I hope, but I certainly fear that Iowa's offense is going to be able to run right at ISU's defense...thus forcing the safeties up...and then killing the Cyclones with the deep playaction throw. Having Sims back helps but the key is going to be ISU's ability to stop the run WITHOUT bringing the safeties up tight (as they were doing tonite).

If ISU can reasonably contain Iowa's running game without walking safeties into the box, then Iowa is vastly overrated. That being said, I don't think they can and I doubt we see them try to play it that straight. Few teams do against Iowa.

The first thing I do before each snap when I watch Iowa on offense is count the men in the box from the other team...more often than not its eight. If you can't stop the Iowa running game, with the defense they usually have, it's usually moot
 
That being said, I don't think they can and I doubt we see them try to play it that straight.

I don't disagree with that at all. But I do suspect that Wally will mix things up a bit and that, at times, the Safeties will stay deep...he's almost as wily as Parker and plays a similar "containment" kind of defense. Of course, necessity IS going to make him put 8 in the box often...but I think he'll strive for a little unpredictability in that regard.
 
That being said, I don't think they can and I doubt we see them try to play it that straight.

I don't disagree with that at all. But I do suspect that Wally will mix things up a bit and that, at times, the Safeties will stay deep...he's almost as wily as Parker and plays a similar "containment" kind of defense. Of course, necessity IS going to make him put 8 in the box often...but I think he'll strive for a little unpredictability in that regard.

No doubt...which is why I said teams do it most of the time...some games that's 65/35 some its 51/49....but almost always more 8's than 7's and Iowa's offensive sets rarely invite 6's, which ticks me off from time to time ;)
 
I thought the Cyclone defense looked somewhat disciplined and the entire team looked quite fundamental tonight. I didn't see a lot of pass rush, saw no dropped passes, not many missed tackles, etc. I like their coach unfortunately, but I suppose that could become fortunate as long as they get dominated Hayden-style.

I was slightly impressed. I don't think the zone read will work as well next week as it did tonight, but the offense of ISU might be able to to move the ball more than I would have expected. The caveat is that the Americanzi won't be missing the passes that NIU's QB was missing tonight. There are big plays to be had in the passing game against their defense and that is before we start discussing the stud that will be a Jewel for the IOWA offense.
 
I wasn't impressed with the NIU QB. I thought he had a horrible game. Either you can credit ISU's defense for that or you can question his abilities to QB. Both teams left a lot of points on the field. I did not see much difference between Arnuad the senior and Arnuad the junior.

I would say the special teams for NIU were terrible and ISU's while better, were average.

ISU's defensive scheme worked last night, but got exposed in the second half. I know Sims did not play last night, but it sure looked like ISU was a step slow in coverage on those long passes.
 
ISU missed a lot of tackles early in the game but setled down after that. Franklin is a monster-Iowa wont keep ISU out of the end zone this year. ISU has two extra days to get ready for Iowa. The Hawks will have their work cut out for them. This is the most weapons Ive seen ISU have on offense in a long time. Arnaud was very accurate early-if he throws like that next satuday the hawks are going to need to score 24 points at least to win.

On offense James Ferentz is going to be overmatched physically most the year, just like his brother was his first year starting. If Gettis cant play, ISU will blitz often, especially from his side.

ISU is prone to giving up big plays on play action-DJK or McNutt will have monster games.
 
NIU will not win the mac with the team they put out last night. The D was awful and the offense was even worse. OMG the playcalling!

Also, how many times did iowa state get beat deep only to have NIU's QB way overthrow him?
 
Unless NIU has another QB that is competent I very much doubt they will win the MAC

I thought ISU looked good. They have some playmakers and Robinson is a threat every time he touches it. I still think against Iowa AA will get greedy and make a couple crucial mistakes that swing the momentum in Iowa's favor. If he is content with 4-8 yard passes they will rack up yards, but i think (hope) he will try to make some bigger plays and that will play right into Iowa's hands.

If AA plays mistake free football against the Hawks it will be much closer than ridiculous 16 point spread that will probably come out next week
 
Cyclone offense could be dangerous at time, Arnaud made some really nice throws to the outside and like Jon said still struggled with the over/under throw. He seemed to have good timing with the receivers. I was disappointed with the ISU defensive line, which is a good thing for Iowa's semi-green offensive line. They just didn't get much pressure from the middle or the outside.

All in all, it was a good showing for ISU.
 
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