Three reasons we ought to pull this one off, not easily, but comfortably (like AZ last year):
(1) Jewel Hampton. Based on what we saw on the Big Ten preview, Jewel is looking tremendous, and if he is what we can expect from that, then Jewel will do something for the O that Iowa didn't have last year, and that's a legitimate every-carry threat to break away. A-Rob was an excellent back for 3/4 ypc, but if he broke it he could usually be chased down. Hampton is quick as a lightening bolt, and so the threat of him breaking it is going to hold the safeties on PA, opening up the passing game for Stanzi to light up a lackluster ISU secondary.
(2) No way they're winning this one on field goals. Their defense is considerably worse than their offense, and considering (1), we should expect decent if not good production from Stanzi and the O. They'll need to get in the end zone to win this one, and seeing as they've had problems with that recently, it's going to take a lot of luck, or an abnormal amount of STANZIBALLS, for them to bring home the Cy-Hawk trophy.
(3) Arnaud still can't take care of the ball. We all remember Sash's 3 interception performance last year, and I doubt he'll repeat, but I'd be surprised if the ISU offense didn't turn it over at least once, probably more than once against a much better defense than NIU's. Those extra chances, if nothing else, ought to be enough for Iowa to take this one handily. Of course, if Stanzi is the one turning it over, then it could be a close one.