Jon's "Minutes Problem" Podcast

[SpiderRico]

Enjoyed listening to the new podcast concerning the issue Fran is facing with trying to distribute minutes to the plethora of B1G talented players.

However, the one issue I have with Jon's analysis, and I think we'll see this play out in the coming year, is he's assuming that the post players that got a bulk of the minutes last year are still going to see them this year.

The reason I think that's not going to be the case is that our interior defense was terrible last year and no team feared going into the lane at all. But now that Kriener appears to have improved leaps and bounds and Nunge and Garza are 7' additions....those guys are going to get a ton of the 5 minutes that went to Cook and Pemsl. I don't see Cook's minutes going down a whole lot because of what he brings to the offensive side of the floor....so that means that Pemsl's minutes I think are going to see a dip.

We can't afford to have a lot of minutes where both Pemsl and Cook are on the floor at the same time....otherwise the same defensive issues we saw inside last year are going to rear their head again. I think those two have to sub each other at the 4....so if Cook plays 25 minutes a game, I only see Pemsl getting 17-18 mins a game (there'll be a few minutes a game where they both play together I'm sure).

I see the avg minutes as follows:

JBo - 25 mins
Cook - 25 mins
Baer - 21 mins
Moss - 21 mins
Kriener - 18 mins
Pemsl - 18 mins
Garza - 15 mins
Nunge - 15 mins
Ellingson - 15 mins
Williams - 10 mins
Wagner - 10 mins
Uhl - 4 mins
Dailey - 4 mins

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Enjoyed listening to the new podcast concerning the issue Fran is facing with trying to distribute minutes to the plethora of B1G talented players.

However, the one issue I have with Jon's analysis, and I think we'll see this play out in the coming year, is he's assuming that the post players that got a bulk of the minutes last year are still going to see them this year.

The reason I think that's not going to be the case is that our interior defense was terrible last year and no team feared going into the lane at all. But now that Kriener appears to have improved leaps and bounds and Nunge and Garza are 7' additions....those guys are going to get a ton of the 5 minutes that went to Cook and Pemsl. I don't see Cook's minutes going down a whole lot because of what he brings to the offensive side of the floor....so that means that Pemsl's minutes I think are going to see a dip.

We can't afford to have a lot of minutes where both Pemsl and Cook are on the floor at the same time....otherwise the same defensive issues we saw inside last year are going to rear their head again. I think those two have to sub each other at the 4....so if Cook plays 25 minutes a game, I only see Pemsl getting 17-18 mins a game (there'll be a few minutes a game where they both play together I'm sure).

I see the avg minutes as follows:

JBo - 25 mins
Cook - 25 mins
Baer - 21 mins
Moss - 21 mins
Kriener - 18 mins
Pemsl - 18 mins
Garza - 15 mins
Nunge - 15 mins
Ellingson - 15 mins
Williams - 10 mins
Wagner - 10 mins
Uhl - 4 mins
Dailey - 4 mins

I totally agree with your Cook/Pemsl take. Those two just don't compliment each other out there very well especially at the D end. But thankfully they have options now. Kriener has gotten better and has some big time potential skill wise. Garza and Nunge look to be the real deals too. Might take them a little bit to get their legs under them as freshman but the skys the limit for them down the road. So to me Wagner and Uhl are the two who might have a tough time finding sporadic mins in the front court...
JBo played over 30 mins quite a bit down the stretch last yr. So 25 a game might be his floor. Unless Williams has improved and can take on more I just think we'll see a ton of JBo out there.

 

[PCHawk]

Good break down. I think that will be pretty close. Anyone listen to the Hawkeye report podcast talking about Weiscamp? His coach says he will be Iowa's starting 2 next year. We could seriously have a couple final 4 runs in the near future.

 

[Hawk5656]

Enjoyed listening to the new podcast concerning the issue Fran is facing with trying to distribute minutes to the plethora of B1G talented players.

However, the one issue I have with Jon's analysis, and I think we'll see this play out in the coming year, is he's assuming that the post players that got a bulk of the minutes last year are still going to see them this year.

The reason I think that's not going to be the case is that our interior defense was terrible last year and no team feared going into the lane at all. But now that Kriener appears to have improved leaps and bounds and Nunge and Garza are 7' additions....those guys are going to get a ton of the 5 minutes that went to Cook and Pemsl. I don't see Cook's minutes going down a whole lot because of what he brings to the offensive side of the floor....so that means that Pemsl's minutes I think are going to see a dip.

We can't afford to have a lot of minutes where both Pemsl and Cook are on the floor at the same time....otherwise the same defensive issues we saw inside last year are going to rear their head again. I think those two have to sub each other at the 4....so if Cook plays 25 minutes a game, I only see Pemsl getting 17-18 mins a game (there'll be a few minutes a game where they both play together I'm sure).

I see the avg minutes as follows:

JBo - 25 mins
Cook - 25 mins
Baer - 21 mins
Moss - 21 mins
Kriener - 18 mins
Pemsl - 18 mins
Garza - 15 mins
Nunge - 15 mins
Ellingson - 15 mins
Williams - 10 mins
Wagner - 10 mins
Uhl - 4 mins
Dailey - 4 mins

Uhl is going to play more than 4 mins per game. I hope we don't play 13 guys every night.

 

[PCHawk]

I totally agree with your Cook/Pemsl take. Those two just don't compliment each other out there very well especially at the D end. But thankfully they have options now. Kriener has gotten better and has some big time potential skill wise. Garza and Nunge look to be the real deals too. Might take them a little bit to get their legs under them as freshman but the skys the limit for them down the road. So to me Wagner and Uhl are the two who might have a tough time finding sporadic mins in the front court...
JBo played over 30 mins quite a bit down the stretch last yr. So 25 a game might be his floor. Unless Williams has improved and can take on more I just think we'll see a ton of JBo out there.

Pemsl is too good to keep off the floor but I'm really hoping he's the worst of the 5. If so, the only way he gets 20 per game is if someone can play minutes at the 3.

I disagree about the theory that they can't play well together tho. I think the defense last year had more to do with youth than length.

 

[PCHawk]

Uhl is going to play more than 4 mins per game. I hope we don't play 13 guys every night.

What about an 11 man rotation with the bottom 4 guys playing every other game?

 

[Hawk5656]

What about an 11 man rotation with the bottom 4 guys playing every other game?

11 is still too many in my opinion.

 

[SpiderRico]

Uhl is going to play more than 4 mins per game. I hope we don't play 13 guys every night.

That's why it's called "averages". My breakdown wasn't implying that every player was going to play that many minutes every game or even play in every game. Dom Uhl could end up playing 12 minutes in a blowout game, not play at all the next 2 games....but his stats over those 3 games says he played 4 mins/game....

 

[InGoodCo]

My guess is the guys with more experience all play over the guys with less experience. At least early

 

[SpiderRico]

My guess is the guys with more experience all play over the guys with less experience. At least early

I don't think that at all. If Fran has shown one thing, it's that he'll play young guys early if they can ball....especially if they can put it in the hoop. How many guys have started every, or nearly every, game freshman to senior year? Aaron White, Mike G, Woody, Marble? JBo started every game last year except for the first couple of scrub games.

I think you're confusing Fran's program with Ferentz's!

 

[InGoodCo]

I don't think that at all. If Fran has shown one thing, it's that he'll play young guys early if they can ball....especially if they can put it in the hoop. How many guys have started every, or nearly every, game freshman to senior year? Aaron White, Mike G, Woody, Marble? JBo started every game last year except for the first couple of scrub games.

I think you're confusing Fran's program with Ferentz's!

I get that... but a lot of those were out of necessity, which I guess I could see it kind of being a necessity this season too. I just don't think either Frosh is gonna average more minutes then Wagner, Pemsl or Ellingson. I think Uhl and Kriener will average close to as many as either Garza and Nunge as well. At least early on.... i think that distribution will shrink. I also think Fran is going to play the players who give us the best chance to win. I just think experience and years in the system go a long ways in college sports so I typically err there. There's plenty of talent in the front court and if I had to make a bet on who gets the bulk of those minutes, it's the guys who have been in the program. Also, neither of them have played 1 second of D1 ball, I am NOT gonna say they're going to average more minutes then guys who have until I see them.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Pemsl is too good to keep off the floor but I'm really hoping he's the worst of the 5. If so, the only way he gets 20 per game is if someone can play minutes at the 3.

I disagree about the theory that they can't play well together tho. I think the defense last year had more to do with youth than length.

Oh I agree Pemsl is a good player. Consider we haven't really seen him at 100% much either. But even at the offensive end those two's games don't compliment each other that well. Maybe if Cook can start knocking down midrange jumpers that might change but those two kinda clog up the lane making it tougher for each of them to operate down there.

 

[mopkins]

JBo - 25 mins
Cook - 25 mins
Baer - 21 mins
Moss - 21 mins
Kriener - 18 mins
Pemsl - 18 mins
Garza - 15 mins
Nunge - 15 mins
Ellingson - 15 mins
Williams - 10 mins
Wagner - 10 mins
Uhl - 4 mins
Dailey - 4 mins

Bohannon averaged 30 minutes last year as a freshman. I don't see how that number goes down 5 minutes this year. You're talking about giving 170 less minutes next season to our starting PG who scored 11 points per game, shot 42% from 3, 86% from the free throw line, and 5 assists per game. He needs to play...a lot

 

[Hawk5656]

That's why it's called "averages". My breakdown wasn't implying that every player was going to play that many minutes every game or even play in every game. Dom Uhl could end up playing 12 minutes in a blowout game, not play at all the next 2 games....but his stats over those 3 games says he played 4 mins/game....

Dom will play every game as long as he is healthy.

 

[NikeHawk21]

It's funny everyone talks about Cook and Pemsl starting together like it was some sort of train wreck. They both started in our home wins against Purdue and Michigan. Ultimately Fran wanted to add some more defense into the mix so he inserted Wagner.

Here's the thing though, with Baer replacing Jok in the lineup that's a huge plus for defense.

Pemsl and Cook can and will play effectively together. It may not be to start the game but they will share the court together. They are both willing passers and I expect Cook to step out to mid range this year. I also think Pemsl's defense, especially his post defense is better than he is given credit for.

They also can improve their defense. Fran has said that Cook has looked much better protecting the rim.

End rant/

 

[SpiderRico]

Bohannon averaged 30 minutes last year as a freshman. I don't see how that number goes down 5 minutes this year. You're talking about giving 170 less minutes next season to our starting PG who scored 11 points per game, shot 42% from 3, 86% from the free throw line, and 5 assists per game. He needs to play...a lot

When it comes to minutes, especially for a slightly built point guard in the B1G, sometimes less can be more....especially come Feb/Mar. 4-5 mins/game less isn't that big of a deal in micro. It's a couple of extra 2 min blows/game.

 

[SpiderRico]

It's funny everyone talks about Cook and Pemsl starting together like it was some sort of train wreck. They both started in our home wins against Purdue and Michigan. Ultimately Fran wanted to add some more defense into the mix so he inserted Wagner.

Here's the thing though, with Baer replacing Jok in the lineup that's a huge plus for defense.

Pemsl and Cook can and will play effectively together. It may not be to start the game but they will share the court together. They are both willing passers and I expect Cook to step out to mid range this year. I also think Pemsl's defense, especially his post defense is better than he is given credit for.

They also can improve their defense. Fran has said that Cook has looked much better protecting the rim.

End rant/

Whether they CAN play good together or not wasn't the main point for me....it's that they don't NEED to. When you've got 3 really big bodies like Kriener, Garza, and Nunge to choose from this year....plus the fact they can all shoot from distance....it opens up a whole other dimension of your offense, gives you add'l rim protectors, and unclogs the lane to allow for a lot more freedom of movement. Can they play well together? Probably. But my argument is that they shouldn't have to.

 

[SomersHawk]

There is no "Jok" this year that is going to get his minutes regardless which will help make it a tad easier. Maybe Fran will have a shorter string on anyone that isn't getting it done any given game and plug in the next guy a little sooner. If a sub has a hot hand their minutes that game will be more than usual obviously and the guy ahead of him will have to sit and enjoy his teammate's successful night. Not seeing too many egos that aren't going to be happy to see the next guy get rewarded when he is deserving.

There is a LOT of talent that no doubt will deserve PT which beats the crap out of the alternative. At the same time it's a lot more fun playing a role and being part of a highly successful team versus playing a lot on a bad one. Would love to see them start the full court press the minute the other team gets off the bus like Mr. Davis did! That would cut down on minutes per player.

Glad it is Fran's problem and not mine. I'm sure he isn't complaining about it!

 

[NikeHawk21]

Whether they CAN play good together or not wasn't the main point for me....it's that they don't NEED to. When you've got 3 really big bodies like Kriener, Garza, and Nunge to choose from this year....plus the fact they can all shoot from distance....it opens up a whole other dimension of your offense, gives you add'l rim protectors, and unclogs the lane to allow for a lot more freedom of movement. Can they play well together? Probably. But my argument is that they shouldn't have to.

Kriener 6'9 / 247
Cook 6'9 / 253
Pemsl 6'8 / 249

Kriener was behind Pemsl and Cook last year, my guess is his defense was part of the problem there as we know he is skilled offensively. For some reason we have crowned him as a true center, but I'm not convinced that's the case. Nunge I think would get pushed around down low by true 5s.

I agree with what your saying that they won't have to play together as much as last year, which is a good thing and I think that's primarily because of Garza over anything.

That being said you want your best players on the floor, and I think Cook and Pemsl are our two best bigs.

 

[UncleHawk]

Big thing that will make the minutes work: not everyone will be valued the same in every game. Some guys may do very well in some games and barely play in others. In other words, outside of maybe 3-4 guys to keep continuity, the whole team will be role players, who may play a lot or a little depending on how their role fits a particular game plan= the matchups with particular teams.

A lot of people will say this can't work. I answer, Fran has used this strategy for other deep teams, for example RDM sr year. To head off objections, IF Fran isn't going to radically shorten the bench, as Jon suggests as a desperate solution in the podcast, this is the history of how Fran deals with great depth. So it's likely to happen again.

I think the core group will be JB, Baer, Moss, Cook. I agree that Pemsl won't play 26min/gm. There are games where he will play that, but others where he won't. This is mostly for defensive reasons. I also think JB won't average 31 for the year. Fran will be trying to limit his minutes in the fall, so he can play 30+ in the B1G. So he'll probably average about 27-28 for the year. Given the favorable fall schedule, this shouldn't be that hard to imagine. Fran values depth, that should be obvious. The above is how he's dealt with developing it in the past, so he's surely going to go that way again.