Is Iowa basketball in trouble already?

[busabus114]

IMHO, you can dang close to hitting the nail on the proverbial head. My calendar is a bit long though, more like the next 18 months.

ISU took a gamble on someone who is unproven. The next 18 months will reveal quite a bit -- like how well he and the staff he has compiled will be able to use the players they have pieced together, is he able to get Big 12 caliber players, and can he keep the mometum created over the excitement of the hire moving forward.

IMHO, Iowa took a much more calculated risk with a coach who has experience building and rebuilding programs at a small and mid-major level. The next 18 months will reveal if he can get the kind of players needed to win in a major conference. His coaching skill has already been revealed.

I don't think we'll have the answers to any of those questions in December. But in December of 2011, I think we will.

Agreed. I think Caarhawk is being a bit dramatic with his time frame but i basically agree with what he is saying. The class of 2011 needs to be good and the 2012 class needs to be great because that will be show us the type of talent they will be bringing in.

 

[Husky28]

As I showed before, good new hires hit home runs on thr recruiting front early. Hoiberg has been closer to this at this point, but he has been playing with some unstable explosives. If they don't blow up, he might have an unsurmountable lead on FM when it comes to the strong upcoming Iowa classes.

However, if Marble and Basabe can come in and show they have true potential to be special B10 players and the ISU experiment doesn't quite work, then FM might be in a better position.

In any event, what happens in the next 6 months will seal the fate of both coaches. If they both are able to come out and show they have their teams on the right track and show they have impressive talent on which to build, all will be fine. However, whomever falters will most likely be lost. For FH, it will mean the powder keg blew up, for FM I will mean Basabe and Marble end up looking pedestrian.

Not sure how a coach's fate can be determined within 6 months when it's been a downward spiral for over 10 years... I can understand 24 months. Then you have two seasons of recruiting and floor time to evaluate...

 

[deanvogs]

Agreed. I think Caarhawk is being a bit dramatic with his time frame but i basically agree with what he is saying. The class of 2011 needs to be good and the 2012 class needs to be great because that will be show us the type of talent they will be bringing in.

CAARhawk dramatic??? No, say it isn't so.....

 

[CAARHawk]

CAARhawk dramatic??? No, say it isn't so.....

LOL! Yeah, I'll accept that.

Yeah, I am just going by the research I did on coaches that were hired within the last five years. Every new coach that was successful made significant recruiting strides within their first two classes, with the exception of Mike Montgomery at Cal and Horn at USC, who hit their classes in year three. But, they are the extreme exceptions and that was only the year three class, which means November of year two. We are also talking about guys with pretty strong records of success, with Montgomery being a Bay Area legend, and Horn having created instant success with his first year team at USC. Both of these guys were hired in April, which means they had 19 months from the time they were hired to put together their really strong year three classes, but like I said, they both had extenuating circumstances that helped.

In six months we will pretty much know where FM stands with regard to the 2011 class and how the 2010 kids look. We will also have a better understanding where FM looks with respect to 2012. He is four months in. Which means he has 15 more months until the 2012 class signing period. Over half of those months will be taken up by the 2010/11 season. The 2011 class will be signed by then. So, the extra 7 months are pretty moot.

The 2012 kids from Iowa are not coming here without a somewhat impressive roster. Which means Basabe and Marble will have to have turned into better than serviceable B10 players and FM will have to bring in either a blue-chipper type 2011 player, or another couple of better than clearly better than serviceable contributors will need to be on the roster and Basabe and Marble will have to be making big noise before 2012 commitments occur.

Now remember, the 2012 Fall signing period is only 15 months away. That means the 2011/12 season will not be played before most of these kids make up their minds. Which means that the 2011 class will not have taken the court.

This is why coaches have to make things happen so fast. Because the lag time is so great.

 

[hawkcigar]

Because I needed to hear from fellow Hawkeye fans on this situation. I work with Cyclone fans (great job, terrible environment). It is therapeutic to post on here.

Maybe you should tell your manager that your co-workers are creating a hostile work environment!

 

[BlackGold57]

Both coaches are walking in a minefield. Its off season now. Once the season starts, the live bullets will start flying. Both simply need to show progress, not a sweet 16 in year one. However, especially for Fran, everyone will watch closely early and it won't take much for people to be critical. He has done a great job of doing the right things so far. Now, players have to perform better and get some results. Otherwise, start taking cover behind the trees.

 

[hawkeyemark]

Both coaches are walking in a minefield. Its off season now. Once the season starts, the live bullets will start flying. Both simply need to show progress, not a sweet 16 in year one. However, especially for Fran, everyone will watch closely early and it won't take much for people to be critical. He has done a great job of doing the right things so far. Now, players have to perform better and get some results. Otherwise, start taking cover behind the trees.

I would hope that our fans don't have so much of a need for instant gratification that we start turning on Fran early if we don't see the type of results expected. Folks, this program needs some time and some very hard work put into it to re-build. We have the right coaching staff in place, the Carver renovations and practice facility coming online and the best opportunity to get the basketball program on track in a long time. And a very big part of the task at hand lies in getting the fan base excited and solidly behind the program again. We need to keep our focus here.

 

[CAARHawk]

And a very big part of the task at hand lies in getting the fan base excited and solidly behind the program again. We need to keep our focus here.

That will not happen until the wins start coming. Sorry, but it is just the way it is. In 2000, in the midst of Iowa's depths for their football program, you could get 4 tickets, 4 sodas, and 4 hotdogs for $40 and the stadium was still largely empty.

 

[hawkeyemark]

That will not happen until the wins start coming. Sorry, but it is just the way it is. In 2000, in the midst of Iowa's depths for their football program, you could get 4 tickets, 4 sodas, and 4 hotdogs for $40 and the stadium was still largely empty.

It seems self-evident that attendance will pick up the more competitive we become on the court. But I would expect a portion of our fan base who enjoys and cares about basketball to come out to see a more entertaining brand of basketball and our Hawks having fun and playing with some passion.

 

[busabus114]

It seems self-evident that attendance will pick up the more competitive we become on the court. But I would expect a portion of our fan base who enjoys and cares about basketball to come out to see a more entertaining brand of basketball and our Hawks having fun and playing with some passion.

This may be true for a little bit, but at the end of the day wins and only wins will but butts in the seats consistently

 

[CAARHawk]

This may be true for a little bit, but at the end of the day wins and only wins will but butts in the seats consistently

Also, we hired Fran McCaffery and we have no marquis players. That just isn't something that is going to light a fire under the base. Again, go back to the football team in 1999 and 2000. They could hardly give tickets away. This team is really in a similar situation, with the added factor that we are coming off the worst stretch in the history of the program.

While people that pay attention to the program and what is happening with college basketball see good things on the horizon, the casual fan isn't going to be excited about a more uptempo form of basketball if the team is losing.

 

[crabshack]

I guess in Ames, now, the word will be lock up the computers and hide the cows and sows.

it has already been proven that his past transgressions won't be an issue at ISU. here's why...

Royce White Commits To ISU! Wide Right & Natty Light

 

[burky247]

Also, we hired Fran McCaffery and we have no marquis players. That just isn't something that is going to light a fire under the base. Again, go back to the football team in 1999 and 2000. They could hardly give tickets away. This team is really in a similar situation, with the added factor that we are coming off the worst stretch in the history of the program.

While people that pay attention to the program and what is happening with college basketball see good things on the horizon, the casual fan isn't going to be excited about a more uptempo form of basketball if the team is losing.

In 2000, Iowa football was still in the Top 25 in national attendance. Just because we weren't selling out doesn't mean the fan base had deserted the team.

All McCaffery has to do is show progress to get the fan base excited. He's actually walking into a great situation because it's not like he has to bring titles to get everyone excited right now. All it will take is exciting basketball and an improved record and the fan base will return(and he's following Lick for crying out loud). And the before and after view of Carver from when FM got here will make him look even better...even if it isn't sell outs. Of course that has more to do with Lick than anything else, but the point remains.

 

[CAARHawk]

I strongly believe he will have to win a good amount of early season games against lesser opponents. Then he will need to keep it close against B10 teams and knock off a few. But the most important thing is that some of the new players need to make some exciting highlight film type plays. Basabe has some major hops. If they can run some backdoor alley oop plays that can get on the evening highlights it will help to create interest.

May is the only existing athletic player. These guys need to play consistent ball, not make turnovers, make good decisions, and hit open shots. It is up to the new guys to turn on the heat.

 

[clicheusername3]

I strongly believe he will have to win a good amount of early season games against lesser opponents. Then he will need to keep it close against B10 teams and knock off a few. But the most important thing is that some of the new players need to make some exciting highlight film type plays. Basabe has some major hops. If they can run some backdoor alley oop plays that can get on the evening highlights it will help to create interest.

May is the only existing athletic player. These guys need to play consistent ball, not make turnovers, make good decisions, and hit open shots. It is up to the new guys to turn on the heat.

And No Jump passes! And if anyone quotes this and talks about bringing the Mr. Davis fake 3 alley oop play back I will be extremely disappointed.