Is a 20 Win Season Possible for Iowa Next Year???

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
The University of Iowa released Iowa's non-conference schedule on Thursday...which is always a good excuse to make some way too early predictions. Let's get to it..

Fri., Nov. 11 Chicago State (WIN)
Mon., Nov. 14 North Carolina A&T (WIN)
Thurs., Nov. 17 Northern Illinois (WIN)
Sun., Nov. 20 vs. Creighton: This game will be played in Des Moines at Wells Fargo Arena (WIN)
Wed., Nov. 23 Campbell (WIN)
Sat., Nov. 26 IPFW (WIN)
Tues., Nov. 29 Clemson (WIN)
Sat., Dec. 3 Brown (WIN)
Tues., Dec. 6 at Northern Iowa (WIN)
Fri., Dec. 9 at Iowa State (LOSS)
Sat., Dec. 17 Drake (WIN)
Mon., Dec. 19 Central Arkansas (WIN)
Thurs., Dec. 22 Boise State (WIN)

I didn't sit down with a W-L total in mind, just an off the cuff prediction without knowing much about the 'lower level' teams and some base knowledge of the better clubs and local teams.

Iowa State is going to have their best team since 2006, if not longer than that. I just don't see a win for the Hawks in Hilton Coliseum this season. However, I think Iowa can win at Northern Iowa and I think they can beat Creighton in Des Moines. Clemson is a team that doesn't return much firepower and the Hawks host them in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge.

Iowa won't leave the state in the non-conference.

This quick and dirty rundown of Iowa's schedule produced a 12-1 non-conference record. Given the opponents, their expected quality and the fact that most of these games will be at home and Iowa returning so much from last year's competitive club and some key additions, I think the ingredients are there for a really good start.

That includes a possible 9-0 beginning to the season. The last time Iowa started a season at least 9-0? 2000-2001 when they started 9-0 en route to winning the Big Ten tournament title and needing it to make the NCAA's after mid-season injuries sidelined Luke Recker and Ryan Hogan.

So...if you want to poke fun at this quick W & L, you certainly have history on your side. However, I think it's possible...

IF Iowa did go 12-1 in the non-conference portion of their schedule, you can expect the Hawks to be in a 'March Situation' next year, as they'd likely win at least five games in next year's Big Ten. If they went 5-13, they would have an overall record of 17-14 entering the Big Ten tournament. That's going to be good enough for some kind of post season invite. It might not be good enough for the NIT, but I also think Iowa will fare better than 5-13.

They went 4-14 in last year's Big Ten, which will prove to be a much tougher league than it will be in 2011-2012. They lost eight games by six points or less (which is two possessions). Without seeing the Big Ten schedule, which will be released late in the summer, I think this team can win six to eight league games. If they could go 8-10 in league play, which might be a reach, along with a 12-1 non-conference schedule, you get to the 20 win plateau before the first game in the Big Ten tournament...it's been a long time since the Hawks won 20 games in the regular season, going back to the 2005-2006 campaign.

I may be a little high on the Hawkeye Hoops kool-aid right now, but it's reflective of how excited I am to see Fran McCaffery's second season in Iowa City.

If the Hawks can put together a consistent November and December, Carver Hawkeye could be rockin like it's 1989 in 2011.
 
This is a good analysis. Those nonconference games seem pretty winnable. The UNI game might be iffy, but 12-1 or 11-2 is a pretty good start. A winning overall record would be very much welcome. Hopefully the team can build on a good start and come a little closer to .500 in the conference. I'm looking forward to hoops.
 
Oh I can't wait for this thread to be hijacked by Cyclones laughing saying "you'll be lucky to win 10 games all year!"
 
Chickenlounge said:
Oh I can't wait for this thread to be hijacked by Cyclones laughing saying "you'll be lucky to win 10 games all year!"
Click to expand...

That's kinda dumb... you will have ten wins in the non-con...easy. That's weak. Even weaker than ours last season.

Edit: I take that back. Probably not easy. I think you will be 10-3.
 
Last edited:
A 20 win season for Iowa in basketball next year. It's a bit of a stretch. But at least you're not getting carried away like the 12-0 prediction you made for the football team on the 2010 season. ;)
 
1 loss would be ok. 2 losses would be bad. 3 losses would be terrible.

Just after watching ISU start off to great starts like this over the past 3 years it only makes it that much more depressing when conf play rolls through.


Its crazy to think how far basketball has fallen when we (ISU and Iowa) are just hoping to be one of the 120 teams that make post season play.
 
I am just glad the program appears to be headed in the right direction. '05-'06 is the last time we hit 20 wins I think. It is nice to be excited about BBall again.
 
I think 20 wins is a definite stretch. While the nonconference schedule is favorable, I see us coming out of it with about eight or nine wins. That being said, I don't see Iowa making huge strides in its number of conference wins. Winning on the road in the Big 10 has been a challenge for the Hawks for a few years now, and I think the Big 10 will be even better this season (while not a power-conference like it was set up to be last season). I love the direction the program is heading and we will be more competitive next season; however, I think 20 wins is a stretch in 2011. I think 2012 we have a shot at sneaking in the Big Dance. It will still take patience from Iowa fans but for me, it is easier to keep patient when you see the program is heading north and not south.

With one season under his belt, the Iowa program made tremendous strides under Fran and the future definitely looks bright.
 
DesMoinesHawki said:
I think the Big 10 will be even better this season (while not a power-conference like it was set up to be last season).
Click to expand...


How do you figure? I don't quite understand this statement. The general feeling I have been getting is that the conference takes a step back this season and I'd have to agree.

Plus, I am not sure this Iowa team can't help, but be better than last year. IMHO that isn't even Hawkeye bias either.
 
Thanks Jon! It’s hard not to be a little optimistic about this team. They were in a lot of games this past season. If they go 17-14 or something close to that, I don’t think Hawk fans will be happy, but it will show there is a little improvement. If that means 12 wins non-con and only 5 big 10 wins, that’s really not very good. They have to get to the .500 mark, or better in the big 10 to give us a lot of hope. Think about it folks, a decent big 10 team should be able to win 75-80% of there home games and go about .500 on the road. That, along with the cupcake non-con schedule puts you over 10 wins in the big 10 and guarantees you a spot in the big dance.
PS Jon, you and Deace really need to get back on the air in central Iowa. Any chance you will be doing sound-off this fall?
 
On one hand I think it is certainly possible to enter conference play with 10 or more wins, but outside of potential, there isn't much to hang your hat on. Basabe, Cartwright and Gatens can be counted on to deliver consistent output, but beyond that, who knows. We need to have a couple returning players elevate their game and have a couple of the newbies exceed expectations. Hubbard's impact is the wild card and I don't want to bank on the guy carrying us, but a guy like that has the potential to affect a 5 game swing by himself.
 
The Big Ten won't be that good this coming year. So Iowa should improve their win total by a few games. The new talent and familiarity with the system will increase the win total substantially.
 
At some point, Iowa has to begin moving up. Games that they lost the past few years will begin to turn into wins, especially if they get on a roll. Yes, they may lose games they perhaps they should win but this team is also going to win games that many don't expect them to win.

If Iowa can come out of the nonconference schedule with 11 wins and if Iowa begins to control their home court, which is a very good possibility, and can do OK on the road, Iowa could very well win 20 games. And if they do control their home court and win, say, 6 or 7 of the games and they win 3 on the road, plus make a run in the tournament, we are probably looking at the NCAA this year.

Now, a lot of GOOD things have to fall in place for Iowa to do this but Iowa has many kids who are upperclassmen who have not been in any tournament. These kids will be very hungry and will play very very hard, perhaps harder than other teams. Fran is adding some key players. Given how the Hawks looked last year under Fran's first season, I would not be a bit surprised to see the Hawks play with a vengeance this year and make the tournament.

Iowa will be new flavor in the Big 10 after a long absence.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Share this page

Top