Iowa Will Beat Michigan, Here's Why?

[hawkeyes87]

kicker,

If last years team was really good, explain this year?

Here are the options I can think of:
1) this years team is also very good
2) lost too many key pieces from that team
3) losses and close games are due to the brutal schedule
4) bad luck / breaks
5) coaching

Now, the only realistic answers are 5 and 2 (if you answered 1 or 3 you fail, Mr Barta)

But, its hard to pin a drop from legitimately very good to this all on coaching and a handful of players.

Now, I call last year an above average team that played a weak schedule, took advantage of some key mistakes by their opponents, made some key plays of their own, got on a roll and generally did just enough to be 12-0. They played a great 2nd half against NW, and good game against (overrated and hampered by a bad game from Cook) MSU. Otherwise I didn't see much to justify calling them very good.

Btw, I'm not taking anything away from the accomplishment. As you said, 12-0 is 12-0. It was a great, magical season. One of the best ever for Iowa football, no doubt.

 

[OUTofTOWNHAWK]

History tells us Iowa will win and everyone will forget about Iowas last couple of horrible losses. Handful of big wins has kept Kirk around

 

[Xerxes]

Well, I think a Kinnick night game is a little more daunting then playing at Rutgers. I remember what happened to an undefeated and top 3 PSU team coming into Kinnick.

I

Where exactly did I say I was comparing this current Iowa team to that Iowa team? My point is anything can happen at Kinnick.....especially at night.

To be fair, the PSU game in 2008 wasn't a night game. It was a 2:30 kickoff. And night games in Kinnick haven't exactly been bang up affairs for the Hawkeyes.

2006 Ohio St - I prefer not to talk about this, lot of money spent to watch Iowa get trampled
2009 Michigan - barely beat a bad Michigan team
2010 Penn St - 24-3 win over an 6 loss PSU team
2011 NW - 41-31 shootout win, kinda fun game to be at actually
2012-2014 no night games
2015 - close win against an okay Pitt team

Iowa's had some wins there the last few years at night but nothing really crazy in terms of beating a superior team. Iowa hasn't played night games much in Kinnick lately and when they have, its basically beat bad/average teams there. And overall Iowa hasn't really upset a team in Kinnick since 2013 win against a solid but not great Michigan team.

 

[Jonrn]

How can you say they are worse?

Well I'm case you haven't noticed Michigan state is 2-3 and in the last two weeks have lost to Indiana and by 3 scores to a rather bad BYU team. It's not like Iowa is good, but the stink isn't As bad as in east Lansing, their depth chart has 3 starting QBs.

 

[HaydenHawk56]

I


To be fair, the PSU game in 2008 wasn't a night game. It was a 2:30 kickoff. And night games in Kinnick haven't exactly been bang up affairs for the Hawkeyes.

2006 Ohio St - I prefer not to talk about this, lot of money spent to watch Iowa get trampled
2009 Michigan - barely beat a bad Michigan team
2010 Penn St - 24-3 win over an 6 loss PSU team
2011 NW - 41-31 shootout win, kinda fun game to be at actually
2012-2014 no night games
2015 - close win against an okay Pitt team

Iowa's had some wins there the last few years at night but nothing really crazy in terms of beating a superior team. Iowa hasn't played night games much in Kinnick lately and when they have, its basically beat bad/average teams there. And overall Iowa hasn't really upset a team in Kinnick since 2013 win against a solid but not great Michigan team.

Well, it finished in the dark, but ya 2:30 game. We will see what happens, but got a few games to worry about first before Michigan.

 

[PCHawk]

kicker,

If last years team was really good, explain this year?

Here are the options I can think of:
1) this years team is also very good
2) lost too many key pieces from that team
3) losses and close games are due to the brutal schedule
4) bad luck / breaks
5) coaching

Now, the only realistic answers are 5 and 2 (if you answered 1 or 3 you fail, Mr Barta)

But, its hard to pin a drop from legitimately very good to this all on coaching and a handful of players.

Now, I call last year an above average team that played a weak schedule, took advantage of some key mistakes by their opponents, made some key plays of their own, got on a roll and generally did just enough to be 12-0. They played a great 2nd half against NW, and good game against (overrated and hampered by a bad game from Cook) MSU. Otherwise I didn't see much to justify calling them very good.

Btw, I'm not taking anything away from the accomplishment. As you said, 12-0 is 12-0. It was a great, magical season. One of the best ever for Iowa football, no doubt.

A lot of it is mindset of the players. It's hard to match the intensity of last year's team. If the run defense played all year like they did last week (which they are obviously capable of) we would be undefeated right now. The big drop of from last year talent wise is receiver drop off. All that said, coaching did us no favors in the two losses by playing so over the top conservative.

 

[kicker22]

kicker,

If last years team was really good, explain this year?

Here are the options I can think of:
1) this years team is also very good
2) lost too many key pieces from that team
3) losses and close games are due to the brutal schedule
4) bad luck / breaks
5) coaching

Now, the only realistic answers are 5 and 2 (if you answered 1 or 3 you fail, Mr Barta)

But, its hard to pin a drop from legitimately very good to this all on coaching and a handful of players.

Now, I call last year an above average team that played a weak schedule, took advantage of some key mistakes by their opponents, made some key plays of their own, got on a roll and generally did just enough to be 12-0. They played a great 2nd half against NW, and good game against (overrated and hampered by a bad game from Cook) MSU. Otherwise I didn't see much to justify calling them very good.

Btw, I'm not taking anything away from the accomplishment. As you said, 12-0 is 12-0. It was a great, magical season. One of the best ever for Iowa football, no doubt.

I totally agree with what you are saying, but I stand by what I originally said. Maybe they weren't an eilte team last year but I'd say they were a great team that had a magical season. Your totally right that they took some advantages of other teams key mistakes and had the advantage of a weak schedule. But in my opinion a good/very good team has a hiccup or two over the course of a 12 game schedule. So as I stated in my original post that I felt they were a great team.



Maybe last years success was the result of lightning in a bottle and one of those freak occurrences in which everything plays out better than expected and everyone played above their ability. Maybe it was the product of a weak schedule and KF taking some chances and shying away from the "predictable Iowa football", who knows.

I have no idea what the problem is this year, but I don't think its fair to say because they're struggling this year they weren't a great team last year. Every season is different. Maybe its a combination of losing some key guys in key positions, our line play, and inability to stop the run early on, the fact that we've made a number of huge mistakes that have killed us based on our style of play. I also think the fact that last year we were a juggernaut in terms of turnover margin and that hasn't been the case.

What ever it is, I don't have a clue. But I don't think its fair to judge who we were last year based on what we've done this year.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Well I'm case you haven't noticed Michigan state is 2-3 and in the last two weeks have lost to Indiana and by 3 scores to a rather bad BYU team. It's not like Iowa is good, but the stink isn't As bad as in east Lansing, their depth chart has 3 starting QBs.

Pretty sure their depth chart has 3 starters listed so Dantonio can light a fire under their azzes. It's a coaching move. The falloff may be worse at East Lansing and more unexpected, but I'm not sure Iowa would beat them. It's probably a push at this point with both teams.

 

[hawkeyes87]

kicker,

Well stated.

I still don't agree, but since it's off topic in this thread I'm not going to make any more arguments.

To each his own.

 

[kicker22]

kicker,

Well stated.

I still don't agree, but since it's off topic in this thread I'm not going to make any more arguments.

To each his own.

Agree with you there. Let's both agree that this season isn't going as expected and hope they get back on track this week.

 

[OUTofTOWNHAWK]

History tells us Iowa will win and everyone will forget about Iowas last couple of horrible losses. Handful of big wins has kept Kirk around

Yep

 

[hawkeyebob62]

Yep

Speaking of keeping Kirk around, you seem to pop in only when things don't look so hot. You were pretty scarce--maybe even absent--last season, IIRC

 

[Joshbrown]

kicker,

If last years team was really good, explain this year?

Here are the options I can think of:
1) this years team is also very good
2) lost too many key pieces from that team
3) losses and close games are due to the brutal schedule
4) bad luck / breaks
5) coaching

Now, the only realistic answers are 5 and 2 (if you answered 1 or 3 you fail, Mr Barta)

But, its hard to pin a drop from legitimately very good to this all on coaching and a handful of players.

Now, I call last year an above average team that played a weak schedule, took advantage of some key mistakes by their opponents, made some key plays of their own, got on a roll and generally did just enough to be 12-0. They played a great 2nd half against NW, and good game against (overrated and hampered by a bad game from Cook) MSU. Otherwise I didn't see much to justify calling them very good.

Btw, I'm not taking anything away from the accomplishment. As you said, 12-0 is 12-0. It was a great, magical season. One of the best ever for Iowa football, no doubt.

There's a simple answer to your question.

Coaching matters. Even this year is a good example. I know he can't be fired but he also can't be insulated from the social media storm calling for his head. So even though his job is safe he can muster the troops to a win when it serves his vanity.

The guy isn't hard to figure out. If every year there was heat under his seat he would produce better results. People make this more complicated than is necessary.

No heat = he doesn't give a ****. He just wants to play by his own stupid field-position-before-scoring rules. If he ever again is in a position to be fired, on that day he will coach by someone else's rules.

 

[HawkeyeDenis]

I am like 99.9% of Iowa fans. If I was forced to bet, I would have bet on the Wolverines.

 

[deanvogs]

My prediction is 49-7 Michigan.....and I'm being kind making it that close

Even though according to you, this is short changing what the outcome will be, I will still take Iowa at +42. How much would you like to wager?

Hey Seepig, Iowa covered the +42 line you gave it. Where my money at?

 

[deanvogs]

History tells us Iowa will win and everyone will forget about Iowas last couple of horrible losses. Handful of big wins has kept Kirk around

Completely disagree. The script is totally flipped now. For instance the guy does his best coaching job of his career last year. He goes 12-0 with a team that is severely limited talent wise. Then he loses 4 games the next years and the pitchforks are back out. Heck even I, who according to the "toxic crowd" am the biggest apologist on the planet wouldn't mind if he moved on sooner rather than later.

Here is what really discourages me though about the toxics. The ones who have been posting non stop the last few weeks about how awful Iowa was, who make everything about either hatred or snark about KF are just completely absent from this site for the most part after a HUGE win. They were basically completely absent from the entire season last year. It is like winning bothers them, that they don't want to come and post and be part of a positive discussion, they only want to partake in the negative teardown of KF, or the program.

 

[thedukeofearl]

History tells us Iowa will win and everyone will forget about Iowas last couple of horrible losses. Handful of big wins has kept Kirk around

Some say that History has a habit of repeating itself.....

 

[thedukeofearl]

Hey Seepig, Iowa covered the +42 line you gave it. Where my money at?

Jack Reacher wants his money.....

 

[blubberhawk]

Completely disagree. The script is totally flipped now. For instance the guy does his best coaching job of his career last year. He goes 12-0 with a team that is severely limited talent wise. Then he loses 4 games the next years and the pitchforks are back out. Heck even I, who according to the "toxic crowd" am the biggest apologist on the planet wouldn't mind if he moved on sooner rather than later.

Here is what really discourages me though about the toxics. The ones who have been posting non stop the last few weeks about how awful Iowa was, who make everything about either hatred or snark about KF are just completely absent from this site for the most part after a HUGE win. They were basically completely absent from the entire season last year. It is like winning bothers them, that they don't want to come and post and be part of a positive discussion, they only want to partake in the negative teardown of KF, or the program.

I am here. I love the hawks. I watch every minute of every game. I loved what happened Saturday night. The win did nothing to change my opinion about the contract they gave Ferentz. (still one of the worst in History) Wins like this one always raise more questions than provide answers:

Where has this emotion and intensity been all year?
Why did Wadley carry the ball only 4 times against North Dakota?
Iowa's defense played lights out and was really prepared. Kudos to whomever was responsible. Jaleel Johnson was a man!! I loved the way Desmond King played. Dumb penalty but was a leader out there.
Iowa's offense was anemic again. Yes, pretty good Michigan defense but still, offense is bad.


And finally, Thank God for Wadley! He was the best player on the field Saturday night. Michigan could not stop him, even though they knew we had nothing else to throw at them.

 

[deanvogs]

I am here. I love the hawks. I watch every minute of every game. I loved what happened Saturday night. The win did nothing to change my opinion about the contract they gave Ferentz. (still one of the worst in History) Wins like this one always raise more questions than provide answers:

Where has this emotion and intensity been all year?
Why did Wadley carry the ball only 4 times against North Dakota?
Iowa's defense played lights out and was really prepared. Kudos to whomever was responsible. Jaleel Johnson was a man!! I loved the way Desmond King played. Dumb penalty but was a leader out there.
Iowa's offense was anemic again. Yes, pretty good Michigan defense but still, offense is bad.


And finally, Thank God for Wadley! He was the best player on the field Saturday night. Michigan could not stop him, even though they knew we had nothing else to throw at them.

Football is a weird game. Michigan was averaging 500 YPG in total offense. Iowa held them to 200. Penn St. was averaging under 400 YPG and Iowa gave up 600 YPG to them.

Bottom line is Michigan's offense isn't bad, Iowa just did an outstanding job on Saturday vs their offense.