Iowa Basketball 2019/2020 Post Season Prediction Poll

[NikeHawk21]

Kriener, Nunge, Pemsl, Garza, Connor, Wieskamp, Bohannon - all have experience and multiple years within the program sans Joe, who we know what we are getting when he steps on the court. That's enough- that's an NCAA team and you won't convince me otherwise. If they aren't - there's a problem.

I’m not trying to convince you to lower your expectation for this team.

I’m just saying I think the “experience” thing is being a bit overblown. We have some good experience returning but it’s nothing over the top. As I said probably no more or less than last year.

A second point I’d make is look at the list you have above. 4 of your 7 experienced guys are bigs, with Kriener and Pemsl likely in bench role player type roles. The backcourt however is fairly green after Bohannon. Based on statistics McCaffery was not an average player at this level last year, and CJF and Joe T are unknowns. So in that sense in the backcourt you are looking at two freshman and a player in McCaffery who really hasn’t proven to be a winning player at this level to date. Those guys are all going to get minutes.

 

[HawkGold]

The problem is that there is so much different quick/speed between Iowa HS and big city schools. A really disciplined physically strong team can to some degree overcome it. I just mentions some of the Hawks weaknesses.

I would suggest taking time to watch Chicago HS basketball to see the difference.

Even a kid like Lyle who was at OSU. Up close at the HS level he was unbelievable quick.

Diopp though a bit lazy, when he turned it on it was like jets.

Iowa has no experienced crazy quick. Not one. Thar is the problem.

 

[PCHawk]

I’m not trying to convince you to lower your expectation for this team.

I’m just saying I think the “experience” thing is being a bit overblown. We have some good experience returning but it’s nothing over the top. As I said probably no more or less than last year.

A second point I’d make is look at the list you have above. 4 of your 7 experienced guys are bigs, with Kriener and Pemsl likely in bench role player type roles. The backcourt however is fairly green after Bohannon. Based on statistics McCaffery was not an average player at this level last year, and CJF and Joe T are unknowns. So in that sense in the backcourt you are looking at two freshman and a player in McCaffery who really hasn’t proven to be a winning player at this level to date. Those guys are all going to get minutes.

Fran should have been able to recruit over Moss for the last few years. He was a pretty easy player to recruit over. So far he hasn't been able too. But now there are 2 new options. Joe T and CJ. If one of them is an average player, we will be fine at the 2 next year. If they are both bad next year, that is a really really bad sign for the future because we would have pretty much no one at the 1 or the 2. The way I see it is if we miss Moss next year because there isn't an adequate player to replace him, Fran will be gone the following year.

 

[InGoodCo]

I’m not trying to convince you to lower your expectation for this team.

I’m just saying I think the “experience” thing is being a bit overblown. We have some good experience returning but it’s nothing over the top. As I said probably no more or less than last year.

A second point I’d make is look at the list you have above. 4 of your 7 experienced guys are bigs, with Kriener and Pemsl likely in bench role player type roles. The backcourt however is fairly green after Bohannon. Based on statistics McCaffery was not an average player at this level last year, and CJF and Joe T are unknowns. So in that sense in the backcourt you are looking at two freshman and a player in McCaffery who really hasn’t proven to be a winning player at this level to date. Those guys are all going to get minutes.

yeah, I would say no more than last year on the experience end - but besides Cook (who was special and an all conference type of player)- all the same major pieces are there from last year. Baer and Moss, while both nice players who contributed a ton to this program and their departures will be felt, they were NOT difference makers or irreplaceable guys or "special" IMO. That's not a slight on them. They were good. They weren't great. That means you have all the other pieces we've discussed trying to replace that production. I feel fairly confident with what I know about what we had on the bench last year and what we have coming in that production will be filled.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

I think someone should create a campaign to "Make Iowa Great Again"...since we will be sporting an all white team...I think it makes sense. MIGA would definitely catch on. We could have Steve King do a prologue for every TV broadcast / media event. A black and gold MIGA hat would be the rage.

I'm calling the Russians now.

Fran could grow a Hitler stache and proclaim..."I only recruit Aryans!" Ich bin ein Hawkeye!

Too soon?

 

[InGoodCo]

I think someone should create a campaign to "Make Iowa Great Again"...since we will be sporting an all white team...I think it makes sense. MIGA would definitely catch on. We could have Steve King do a prologue for every TV broadcast / media event. A black and gold MIGA hat would be the rage.

I'm calling the Russians now.

Does anyone know that Cordell and Joe T are black?

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

Does anyone know that Cordell and Joe T are black?

Ok...2 out of 12 ain't bad. I stand corrected. Nothing to see here. I'm also attempting humor for the first time.

 

[NikeHawk21]

To play devils advocate, we have 3 returning starters, all of whom are really good. We have three guys returning who have all been on campus several years, have all been a starter at one point, and who will all be vying for the 4 position. So, I think we have very good experience returning. 6 guys who have all started multiple games in their careers.

There will be one remaining roster spot for 1 guy who has very limited experience. I agree. But, let's see who the candidates are:

Of the remaining 4, you have two coaches kids. Usually pretty mature and heady players. Conner has the highest basketball IQ on the team IMHO. Patrick is green, but a Top 100 recruit with huge match up problem potential. Will take that. The other two look good on tape and from reports, and should be solid contributors, at least, at the guard positions.

So, we really just need 1 of these 4 to be a quality Big 10 starter. The others need to be role players off the bench and give quality minutes. Given the talent in that pool, I feel good that we have a quality starter, at least one, amongst them.

Again I’m not disagreeing that we return some experience and have some reasons to feel good. I’m just noting I think the experience thing is getting overblown some. Also as I noted a good deal of that experience is in the front court, with Pemsl and Kriener looking like bench role player types.

If I were to play devils advocate to you I would say yes Wieskamp, Garza, and Bohannon are good pieces, however Garza and Bohannon are both liabilities on the defensive end, which in a way does limit their overall “value.”

 

[NikeHawk21]

yeah, I would say no more than last year on the experience end - but besides Cook (who was special and an all conference type of player)- all the same major pieces are there from last year. Baer and Moss, while both nice players who contributed a ton to this program and their departures will be felt, they were NOT difference makers or irreplaceable guys or "special" IMO. That's not a slight on them. They were good. They weren't great. That means you have all the other pieces we've discussed trying to replace that production. I feel fairly confident with what I know about what we had on the bench last year and what we have coming in that production will be filled.

Oh dear god. Baer was not a difference maker now?

As I’ve have said in multiple other threads you could make a case that Baer was the best player on the team last year. Here are some of the numbers.

PER:
1. Garza 22.7
2. Baer 20.8
3. Cook 19.3

WS/40:
1. Garza .166
2. Baer .164
3. Wieskamp .154

BPM:
1. Baer 11.4
2. Wieskamp 8.1
3. Garza 5.2

Offensive Rating:
1. Wieskamp 125.5
2. Garza 119.9
3. Baer 119.6
4. Bohannon 117.0

Defensive Rating:
1. Baer 98.1
2. Kriener 103.5

Dude was top 3 in almost every major advanced statistical category and he wasn’t a difference maker? What is your definition of a difference maker?

 

[NikeHawk21]

Fran should have been able to recruit over Moss for the last few years. He was a pretty easy player to recruit over. So far he hasn't been able too. But now there are 2 new options. Joe T and CJ. If one of them is an average player, we will be fine at the 2 next year. If they are both bad next year, that is a really really bad sign for the future because we would have pretty much no one at the 1 or the 2. The way I see it is if we miss Moss next year because there isn't an adequate player to replace him, Fran will be gone the following year.

You were always extremely down on Moss. In this case I don’t think your perception matches reality. It’s probably because Moss had a lot more potential that never really materialized. Even if you look at him as just a spot up shooter he was pretty darn good at that, and by Iowa standards at the very least he was a decent defender.

I know the grad transfer market is a seller’s market but Kansas was looking at him along with loads of other schools. You really think Iowa can easily recruit over a guard that Kansas was looking at? Based on Fran’s guard recruiting I would say that’s not realistic. Again I don’t feel your perception matches reality but I understand that Moss isn’t unbelievable either.

 

[InGoodCo]

Again I’m not disagreeing that we return some experience and have some reasons to feel good. I’m just noting I think the experience thing is getting overblown some. Also as I noted a good deal of that experience is in the front court, with Pemsl and Kriener looking like bench role player types.

If I were to play devils advocate to you I would say yes Wieskamp, Garza, and Bohannon are good pieces, however Garza and Bohannon are both liabilities on the defensive end, which in a way does limit their overall “value.”

I agree with what you are saying - it is a little overblown - and I am basing things off a lot of unknowns. I think they will be better at D next year. I really do - I think there's a focus now there with this group to continue to work at that. I also think Nunge is going to be a player. I also think CJ Frederick is going to be better than advertised. I think Connor will be better with an expanded role and more defined minutes. I like Connor - you don't. You aren't the only one. I'm obviously in the minority there. I think he will be drastically better this season and is only going to get better with more time playing at this level.

All that said, what are we arguing here? Do you think they are an NCAA team? I do - if you do too - what are we arguing? If you don't then I could see your point.

 

[PCHawk]

You were always extremely down on Moss. In this case I don’t think your perception matches reality. It’s probably because Moss had a lot more potential that never really materialized. Even if you look at him as just a spot up shooter he was pretty darn good at that, and by Iowa standards at the very least he was a decent defender.

I know the grad transfer market is a seller’s market but Kansas was looking at him along with loads of other schools. You really think Iowa can easily recruit over a guard that Kansas was looking at? Based on Fran’s guard recruiting I would say that’s not realistic. Again I don’t feel your perception matches reality but I understand that Moss isn’t unbelievable either.

I'm sure Kansas takes a look at a lot of players and decide they aren't good enough for their program. Moss didn't choose Kansas and that tells me something. It's possible Kansas took a deep look at Moss and decided it was better to give him a scholarship than to bank it. That doesn't say much. It's not like Kansas was trying to land their starting shooting guard and whiffed.

 

[InGoodCo]

A difference maker to me is someone who makes a difference and is irreplaceable to your foundation and function of your team moving forward. Difference makers at Iowa since Fran got here in my mind

Matt Gatens
Roy Devyn Marble
Aaron White
Mike Gesell
Adam Woodbury
Jarrod Uthoff
Peter Jok
Jordan Bohannon
Tyler Cook
The Peacock
Joe Wieskamp

Baer - good player - one of my favorite Hawkeyes probably ever. Not a difference maker. He just wasn't. He's not a special basketball player. He did a ton for Iowa - and was a great story - losing him makes no difference and it shouldn't. He's not the caliber of player I would ever consider to be in the category of the above players. His stats and his per may differ - but his production and contributes should be something that should be easily overcome with other pieces you've recruited.

That's my opinion. You don't have to share it - but difference maker in my opinion is a special player - I don't feel like Moss or Baer were that caliber, you do, NBD

 

[NikeHawk21]

I agree with what you are saying - it is a little overblown - and I am basing things off a lot of unknowns. I think they will be better at D next year. I really do - I think there's a focus now there with this group to continue to work at that. I also think Nunge is going to be a player. I also think CJ Frederick is going to be better than advertised. I think Connor will be better with an expanded role and more defined minutes. I like Connor - you don't. You aren't the only one. I'm obviously in the minority there. I think he will be drastically better this season and is only going to get better with more time playing at this level.

All that said, what are we arguing here? Do you think they are an NCAA team? I do - if you do too - what are we arguing? If you don't then I could see your point.

I’m very high on Nunge. CJF I’m intrigued because I’ve heard some good things, but in certain cases I actually think he might be being overhyped. Hard to say right now.

I voted in the poll Iowa would make the dance but its going to be darn close IMO. I’m having the discussions not really arguing too much. I guess my point being if you want to say we are an NCAA team because the talent we return makes more sense than the experience thing from my perspective.

 

[NikeHawk21]

A difference maker to me is someone who makes a difference and is irreplaceable to your foundation and function of your team moving forward. Difference makers at Iowa since Fran got here in my mind

Matt Gatens
Roy Devyn Marble
Aaron White
Mike Gesell
Adam Woodbury
Jarrod Uthoff
Peter Jok
Jordan Bohannon
Tyler Cook
The Peacock
Joe Wieskamp

Baer - good player - one of my favorite Hawkeyes probably ever. Not a difference maker. He just wasn't. He's not a special basketball player. He did a ton for Iowa - and was a great story - losing him makes no difference and it shouldn't. He's not the caliber of player I would ever consider to be in the category of the above players. His stats and his per may differ - but his production and contributes should be something that should be easily overcome with other pieces you've recruited.

That's my opinion. You don't have to share it - but difference maker in my opinion is a special player - I don't feel like Moss or Baer were that caliber, you do, NBD

You are certainly entitled to your opinion but that’s pretty crazy to me.

Losing a guy who led our team in blocks, steals, was third in rebounds, made 45 3s, and was top 3 in all those major advanced statistical categories will make NO difference. NO difference? That’s wild.

Mike Gesell? The guy who had a career shooting percentage under 40%? He’s a difference maker but Baer isn’t?

That’s your opinion I guess. Very interesting.

 

[InGoodCo]

You are certainly entitled to your opinion but that’s pretty crazy to me.

Losing a guy who led our team in blocks, steals, was third in rebounds, made 45 3s, and was top 3 in all those major advanced statistical categories will make NO difference. NO difference? That’s wild.

Mike Gesell? The guy who had a career shooting percentage under 40%? He’s a difference maker but Baer isn’t?

That’s your opinion I guess. Very interesting.

Losing him hurts, but nothing that shouldn't be over come by recruiting players who should be in theory higher caliber contributors. Mike G was really the only one that I thought twice about. But I give him the nod because of what he provided those teams. A quick PG that kind of made the wheel turn. He made a difference - but I think the position he played was why I put him there.

Baer was a nice player. He filled the stat sheet and impacted games by coming off the bench. He did make a difference for last years team. He's still not a special player the caliber of the other players I listed. I just don't see him that way. You do and that's cool. That doesn't mean I think he wasn't a good player, he was. Just - not something a program like Iowa should think is a big loss or irreplaceable.

I got no problem being one of the only cats that likes this team going into next year. I was that guy last year too.

 

[InGoodCo]

and right now you're saying Ingood - you always think Iowa is gonna be good. That's not true. If Iowa were to lose Jbo, JW or LG tomorrow, I would be saying - uh, the season is over. I am basing my predictions off that trio - period. end of sentence. Those 3 pieces are as good as any 3 pieces any team in the league has. It's where my optimistic view comes from. The rest of the pieces around them will support them. I don't know if they are the right pieces, neither does anyone. I do know that we have a coach that besides a major blip 2 seasons ago and after his first few has always fielded a competitive team that's in the hunt for the NCAA tournament. With those 3 pieces in place, I have confidence that our coach will field yet another good enough to dance team. I WANT MORE. I wanted more - but Moss and Cook leaving does temper my enthusiasm quite a bit, but what are you gonna do? Cook will be tough to replace - Moss was good not great - as long as the 3 above are healthy and playing I think Iowa's gonna participate in NCAA.

NCAA is the floor for Fran McCaffery & me moving forward every season. Every season he makes it - he gets another year, the next time he doesn't - I want him gone unless there's been something tangible in between - (Sweet 16 or better, B1G title)

 

[NikeHawk21]

and right now you're saying Ingood - you always think Iowa is gonna be good. That's not true. If Iowa were to lose Jbo, JW or LG tomorrow, I would be saying - uh, the season is over. I am basing my predictions off that trio - period. end of sentence. Those 3 pieces are as good as any 3 pieces any team in the league has. It's where my optimistic view comes from. The rest of the pieces around them will support them. I don't know if they are the right pieces, neither does anyone. I do know that we have a coach that besides a major blip 2 seasons ago and after his first few has always fielded a competitive team that's in the hunt for the NCAA tournament. With those 3 pieces in place, I have confidence that our coach will field yet another good enough to dance team. I WANT MORE. I wanted more - but Moss and Cook leaving does temper my enthusiasm quite a bit, but what are you gonna do? Cook will be tough to replace - Moss was good not great - as long as the 3 above are healthy and playing I think Iowa's gonna participate in NCAA.

NCAA is the floor for Fran McCaffery & me moving forward every season. Every season he makes it - he gets another year, the next time he doesn't - I want him gone unless there's been something tangible in between - (Sweet 16 or better, B1G title)

I don’t think your expectations are off basis too much. You’re probably a little higher on Garza and Bohannon than I am but that’s okay. I like those guys but the defensive deficiencies are profound for me so that limits things. I think and hope this team can dance, only time will tell.

Better things will come for this program if we consistently make the dance and are relevant on the national stage so hopefully we can get back to the tourney this coming year.

 

[PCHawk]

I don’t think your expectations are off basis too much. You’re probably a little higher on Garza and Bohannon than I am but that’s okay. I like those guys but the defensive deficiencies are profound for me so that limits things. I think and hope this team can dance, only time will tell.

Better things will come for this program if we consistently make the dance and are relevant on the national stage so hopefully we can get back to the tourney this coming year.

Bohannon was God awful on defense 2 years ago playing on a bad foot. This last year he was nowhere near as bad. If he improves again next year I don't think he will be too much or a deficiency on defense.

Garza hopefully will have an entire healthy year to get stronger quicker and smarter. I'm really hoping it's a noticeable difference for him.

They could both still be bad at defense next year. But there is a chance they could improve to average/slightly below average.

 

[PCHawk]

I predict Garza scored 17+ per game next year.