I don't really get it.

storminspank said:
You're as assuming (badly) that Sag/KenPom won't increase should Iowa continue losing.
As a whole (not particular to Iowa in this case) - the rankings generally start getting closer to each other as the season comes to an end. I've dealt with this stuff for a long, long time - I know what I am talking about.

You're evidence is off of one site. Pomeroy/Sagarin are proven tools that are used by head coaches and BB analysts across the nation.
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Are Pomeroy and Sagarin used by the selection committee? Saying we're 30 something on kenpom.com is just as much of a moral victory as saying losing by 16 to Va Tech apparently wasn't a blow out.

The selection committee uses a number of factors to place teams on the S-curve, including record, strength of schedule, and the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI)
 
PantherMania said:
Are Pomeroy and Sagarin used by the selection committee? Saying we're 30 something on kenpom.com is just as much of a moral victory as saying losing by 16 to Va Tech apparently wasn't a blow out.

The selection committee uses a number of factors to place teams on the S-curve, including record, strength of schedule, and the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI)
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Yes, the committee uses a host of rankings and analytical data apart from the RPI to select teams.
 
storminspank said:
Yes, the committee uses a host of rankings and analytical data apart from the RPI to select teams.
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It's my understanding the committee focuses on RPI, record, SOS, politics, etc. Saying a guy who uses a computer program has us in the 30's now seems like a stretch for a moral victory to me. I'm agreeing with you that # will go up as losses pile up...my thing is what's the point when RPI is the thing that matters. Maybe you got a link out there that shows the committee uses kenpom or Sagarin cause I've never seen it?
 
PantherMania said:
It's my understanding the committee focuses on RPI, record, SOS, politics, etc. Saying a guy who uses a computer program has us in the 30's now seems like a stretch for a moral victory to me. I'm agreeing with you that # will go up as losses pile up...my thing is what's the point when RPI is the thing that matters. Maybe you got a link out there that shows the committee uses kenpom or Sagarin cause I've never seen it?
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I don't think any program has you in the low 30's, KenPom has you 64th, that's probably the best you can find.
 
PantherMania said:
It's my understanding the committee focuses on RPI, record, SOS, politics, etc. Saying a guy who uses a computer program has us in the 30's now seems like a stretch for a moral victory to me. I'm agreeing with you that # will go up as losses pile up...my thing is what's the point when RPI is the thing that matters. Maybe you got a link out there that shows the committee uses kenpom or Sagarin cause I've never seen it?
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I can tell you that with the people I've talked to with information into the committee, they use a very large amount of analytical data separate from the RPI to make their choices.
If you want proof, look at the last decade worth of Kenpom ratings and see which ones ranked in the Top 50 didn't make it.
 
PantherMania said:
for the 307th time...Ive never watched a UNI game when they didn't play Iowa.

Lots of people on here are saying " Oh I had us at 3-6 and that's what we're at so you can't get mad." Our SOS is bad and is only getting worse. The what if games are what's separating us from above avg teams...unfortunately we're not one. Good teams find a way to win.
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Typically Cyclone fans do not watch a lot of UNI games, I will give you that.
 
storminspank said:
I can tell you that with the people I've talked to with information into the committee, they use a very large amount of analytical data separate from the RPI to make their choices.
If you want proof, look at the last decade worth of Kenpom ratings and see which ones ranked in the Top 50 didn't make it.
Click to expand...

Ok well the people I've talked to with information into the committee have told me they focus on record, SOS, RPI and politics so I guess we'll agree to disagree. Regardless, you're saying that you're OK with the fact that our Kenpom and Sagarin are in the 30's but our RPI is 87th and our SOS is 98?
 
PantherMania said:
Ok well the people I've talked to with information into the committee have told me they focus on record, SOS, RPI and politics so I guess we'll agree to disagree. Regardless, you're saying that you're OK with the fact that our Kenpom and Sagarin are in the 30's but our RPI is 87th and our SOS is 98?
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Am I ok with Iowa's rankings looking like that?
They are what they are.

RPI is "what you've done" the other two are predictive, so I can't do much to change it.
We'll have to re-visit in three weeks or so.
 
PantherMania said:
Well that's where we differ. We both know they aren't finishing anywhere close to that
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Time will tell.
As I said, I expect the RPI and Sag/KenPom to meet up down the road - or at least get closer as the season progress. I never said that I felt Iowa would finish with an RPI of inside 40.

I could see Iowa's RPI climbing to inside 50 by season's end though, if they can get 7 or 8 wins incl. the BTT.
 
storminspank said:
Time will tell.
As I said, I expect the RPI and Sag/KenPom to meet up down the road - or at least get closer as the season progress. I never said that I felt Iowa would finish with an RPI of inside 40.

I could see Iowa's RPI climbing to inside 50 by season's end though, if they can get 7 or 8 wins incl. the BTT.
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Ok we'll revisit Iowa's RPI...you say you could see it climbing to inside 50 by the season's end...I'll even spot ya 10 spots and give it to you if they get it under 60
 
Great post Caarhawk. People need to keep things in perspective. Has it been frustrating to lose several close games to those teams we weren't expected to beat? Absolutely. But at least we played them close, and I'd much rather lose to Minnesota or MSU than Campbell or UNI. We WILL win one or two of those close games it's just a matter of when. As Caarhawk said as long as we win the remaining games that we expect to win, and pick up a marquee victory or two the NCAA tourney is still very much a possibility. Worst case we're back in the NIT, and we make the NCAA tourney next season. I can handle that. People need to have more patience.
 
storminspank said:
If you have a logical expectation, then you understand that things like this were going to happen.
Iowa was a fringe tourney team this year and most saw them a year away.
They are a young team (not one filled with Top 25 young'ens either) - so struggling on the road, losing close game, they were expected.

If you thought based on what you knew on subject and how hard you studied that you'd probably get a B and you got a B, why would you upset you didn't get an A+?
Expectations.

I'm not saying to lie down and just take it. But some things (like how this season has turned out) are expected.
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I picked Iowa to start 4-1 with their loss being at Michigan and felt they had legit shots to win those games, but then picked them to finish 10-8. I still like them to finish 10-8, but in a different way. Teams that haven't had success (NC St.) and beat good teams tend to lose games they shouldn't.
People said if Iowa start 4-1 and finishes 10-8 they would be disappointed, but now if they get to 10-8 with no bad losses it is okay. Just depends on what your perception of reality is.

If Iowa can get to 10-8 with no bad losses they have a great shot at the NCAA tournament. If they don't finish 10-8 and make the NIT, hey it is two years in a row of postseason play and Fran has the program in the right direction with you really good young players. Is the NIT ideal, no, but not many really thought they would go to the NCAA tournament either, so they end up where most have predicted.
 
tm3308 said:
I should rephrase. I'd be more satisfied with a 9-9/10-8 record if the games against the top teams went as I expected them to. Instead, I'm getting teased into believing the team can do more than I expected.
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I think what it does show is that Iowa is still ahead of where a lot of expectations seemed to put them. When Fran signed the 2010 class I said that they would win more NCAA tournament games than Brunner/Horner class. They still have a chance to get there this season.

Honestly, living out of Iowa, it sucks when Iowa gets drubbed. Last year, when Iowa lost to MSU in the BTT the sports talk shows kept referring to Iowa as a "bad" team. They weren't "bad" but they weren't ready to compete against the top teams last year due to a roster with a serious lack of talent issue.

I work with UofM and MSU fans and when I say anything positive about Iowa basketball, they just look at me like I have no clue what I am talking about. That perception isn't going away with Iowa's inability to close out games, but the great news is when they start kicking the snot out of these teams as early as next year, I won't have to say anything. Iowa is at a point where they are going to start winning every conference game at home, hell they almost have this year. When they get that home court advantage back again and not lose to the truly bottom of the barrel teams they will then become a staple in the NCAA tourney for years to come.

It is coming.
 
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