Howe: Big Dance a Watershed Moment for Hawkeye Program

[ArvadaHawk]

Some of you guys are assuming Iowa wouldn't pay a buyout if things head south. I wouldn't assume that.

Again, Fran will be and deserves to be the Iowa coach next year. But a quick exit in this tournament and then a failure to make the tournament next season, which would be three out of four years, and things look different.

Heck, Iowa didn't sneeze at paying $6M in the discrimination case. The buyout next year would be $7M.

i think it is a bit unfair to say that iowa has to beat Cincinnati (essentially a home game for Cincinnati) and then Tennessee (whom many thought should be a #1 seed until the AU loss, but who some feel still can make the final 4) or fran is on the hot seat. sure, we need to get to a sweet 16. but this is an absolute horrible draw for iowa.

When the bracket was announced, who on this board said: "oh, yeah, iowa wins both. it's an obvious sweet 16 for iowa?" at the beginning of the season, the bar was "make it to the NCAA." there was no mandate to make it to the sweet 16. feels like moving the goal posts, a little. now, next season, to me, better be a sweet 16 season.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Unfortunatly we are where we are in the pecking order of things and yeah we'd need quite the perfect storm of things to happen for us to sneak into the top 4 of the BIG let alone win the thing. Not impossible but nobody with a brain would put the farm on it happening anytime soon.

The reason it's such a longshot for us now more so then in years past is due to the one and done rule amongst others. But the MSUs Michigans etc being able to turn their rosters over in a year ass opposed to 3 or 4 yrs due to marrying yourself with a recruiting class coming in keeps the margin for error for an Iowa sneaking in to the party tougher. Ideally for Iowa to get that good we'd get a pretty good class of recruits 2 yrs in a row and they grow up and out develop their star rating and stay 4 yrs. Woody, MG and Sapps senior yr was about as close to doing that as Fran has been with Uthoff and Jok behind them. And that wasn't good enough. But that's the recipe because unless we start paying stud McDonalds all americans to come in that can make drastic impacts early and often what other way is there?
We swung and missed on Carton and the Oskaloosa kid hasn't decided but who's assuming he'll be a Hawk? I hope he is but even if he is will he be more like Woodbury was for us or is he an Anthony Davisish type?

Remember that team was projected as a #1 seed sometime late January IIRC. Then the wheels totally fell off for some reason. What caused that, I'm not sure, but we've seen that trend. But I digress... The point is that even Iowa has shown flashes of being able to compete at a higher level than a 7-10 seed.

But if I had the exact answers for how to prevent/stop those late season slides, I'd be coaching somewhere making millions.. Easier said than done, I guess.

If Iowa had stayed at least steady instead of crumbling, it seems we'd have had at least 3 seasons with Fran getting us to the dance with at least a top 5-6 seed or better. 2014, 2016, and this year. I think that we'd have a different outlook about things. Things are what they are, though.

 

[thedukeofearl]

I agree, that as things are now, Iowa will not win the Big 10. Some things have got to change, even if it's improving our defense from being dead last in the conference. Is even middle of the pack D too much to ask?

Still, were they not in first place heading into the final month of the season in 2016? Before the meltdown, I mean. I still feel it can be done, regardless of the presence of other good teams in the league.

As for taking over after Lickliter, that was an issue at first no doubt, but almost a decade later, I think the shelf life on that particular excuse has expired.. This is Fran's program now. It's BEEN his program for a while. Year 9 is nearly complete. That's enough time for a recruiting class to come and go, and then the freshmen the year after would also have come and gone (i'm saying 8 years total). If that's not enough time - then how much is?

Fran has taken us as far as he can IMO, unless some changes are made. Status quo will only get us more of the same.

It has been 40 years since we tied for the Big Ten Regular Season Championship, the only one under Lute. Before that we have to go back to Ralph Millers reign when he was undefeated in 1970 in the Big Ten.....

Otherwise: Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State, and Purdue have dominated the regular season
Championships. Illinois has had a few championships long ago. Minnesota won one in 1982 and Wisconsin won once in 2008.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Big_Ten_Conference_men's_basketball_regular_season_champions

It is a classic case of the Haves and the have nots.....

Alford made the second round once his first year when we beat Creighton in the Dance. Since then he lost in the first round in the NIT twice and NCAA two times including NW State, a disgrace and nightmare for all Hawk fans.....

 

[homes]

Some of you guys are assuming Iowa wouldn't pay a buyout if things head south. I wouldn't assume that.

Again, Fran will be and deserves to be the Iowa coach next year. But a quick exit in this tournament and then a failure to make the tournament next season, which would be three out of four years, and things look different.

Heck, Iowa didn't sneeze at paying $6M in the discrimination case. The buyout next year would be $7M.

The $6 million wasn't a contractual buyout, it was the payment of a judgment and the avoidance of possibly paying an even bigger judgment to plaintiff number 2, sorry forgot her name. The only similarity of the $7 million buyout to that $6 million payout (besides the number) is further evidence of Barta's questionable decision making.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Is there cheating on college basketball? Of course.

Is it the only way to have a program that makes the Sweet 16 more than once every 20 years? No.

There's a lot of middle ground there obviously. The worst thing you can do is cheat and still stink or be mediocre... So if your going to do that you gotta really shoot for the moon. It'd be really nice to know with any kind of certainty to what extent all these coaches coach K on down are associated with all the cheating. Because most all are doing it that's pretty well established. Some are just way better at not getting caught seems to be the thing...

 

[revkev73]

Here is an example. There have probably been few examples that fit your young and dynamic description of a possible coach than Shaka Smart. How is that working out for Texas? My guess is many here would have killed to land smart four years ago when he left VCU for a big payday. Four years in at a school with very deep pockets and he is .500 overall and .431 in conference with two first round NCAA flame outs. Who saw that coming?

I have never heard of him. Sorry it didn't work out.

On the other hand, there are tons of young, talented, sane, great BB coaches who have never had the chance to be who they might become. I want one of those, in love with recruiting and coaching fundamental BB. Make Iowa a nightmare to play because of the defensive intensity Iowa brings. (How refreshing that would be) Iowa has learned to fade at the end of seasons. We need a coach who helps a team get better on every level as the season progresses.

If you want a championship team, you need some dynamic leadership. I am not a big fan of open-ended coaching contracts, going for average and being happy with average. You had your 6-8 years, time to try something else.

 

[revkev73]

i think it is a bit unfair to say that iowa has to beat Cincinnati (essentially a home game for Cincinnati) and then Tennessee (whom many thought should be a #1 seed until the AU loss, but who some feel still can make the final 4) or fran is on the hot seat. sure, we need to get to a sweet 16. but this is an absolute horrible draw for iowa.

When the bracket was announced, who on this board said: "oh, yeah, iowa wins both. it's an obvious sweet 16 for iowa?" at the beginning of the season, the bar was "make it to the NCAA." there was no mandate to make it to the sweet 16. feels like moving the goal posts, a little. now, next season, to me, better be a sweet 16 season.

Iowa is in the dance playing teams better than they are. This isn't a surprise. It is "tremendous success."

 

[RobHowe]

i think it is a bit unfair to say that iowa has to beat Cincinnati (essentially a home game for Cincinnati) and then Tennessee (whom many thought should be a #1 seed until the AU loss, but who some feel still can make the final 4) or fran is on the hot seat. sure, we need to get to a sweet 16. but this is an absolute horrible draw for iowa.

When the bracket was announced, who on this board said: "oh, yeah, iowa wins both. it's an obvious sweet 16 for iowa?" at the beginning of the season, the bar was "make it to the NCAA." there was no mandate to make it to the sweet 16. feels like moving the goal posts, a little. now, next season, to me, better be a sweet 16 season.

I did not say Fran was on the hot seat if we didn't make the Sweet 16. And as far as it being a horrible draw, Iowa is a 10 seed. Low seeds have draws like that.

I do not think making the tournament as a 10 seed in Year 9 is a great accomplishment. The bar was set at making the tournament because Year 8 was dreadful. And it shouldn't have been had there not been several dead recruiting classes, which came after the initial success. There's not reason those recruiting classes should have been that empty.

It's all relative. From my column:

He’s the fourth-most tenured coach in the conference behind only Michigan State’s Tom Izzo, Purdue’s Matt Painter and Michigan’s John Beilein. He’s the only one among them not to reach at least the Sweet 16 during the last five seasons.

It’s fair to point out that Iowa doesn’t enjoy the history of that trio. Expecting and wanting more also is acceptable.

To date, McCaffery hasn’t overstayed his welcome. He’s run a clean program and recruited high-character kids. Despite the outcry from the disgruntled, he shouldn’t have been shown the door already.

That said, it’s time to raise the bar. Winning the program’s first regular-season title since 1979 would be great, but breaking its 20-year Sweet 16 drought needs to happen.

 

[SteveGarvey1]

Fran has not come close to Mr. Davis's level. Not even scratching the surface.

Actually, he has. The last six years of Fran with 4 dances is pretty much mid-tenure Mr. Davis.

On Friday, while watching Fran on the sidelines with his red face, berating his players or the refs, close your eyes and imagine Mr. Davis constantly clapping, even when things were going south in a game. It's the same deal.

 

[lightning1]

I think you missed part of my intent. History shows that the future is more likely to be worse than the status quo when it comes to replacing coaches. It is far from an exact science.

Then why even have a sports program? Shut the doors if you're afraid to even try.

 

[NikeHawk21]

I guess I wouldn't classify the chances of making the tournament next year as "pretty likely."

Iowa is a 10 seed this year and it's college basketball where transfers flow like water. I wouldn't assume that the only losses will be Baer and possibly Cook. I really wouldn't assume that.

I think this Iowa team could use some “good” attrition actually anyway. Just depends who it is I guess.

As I posted elsewhere the three players most likely to be in an Iowa uniform next year are Jordan Bohannon (3rd team BIG), Luka Garza (HM B1G), and Joe Wieskamp (1st Freshman B1G). So that’s a pretty good starting point.

I guess the biggest concern to me is next year is really it’s just about the McCaffery’s. I’ve seen plenty of speculation but the one thing I keep hearing is the ultimate goal for them is for Connor and Pat to play on the same team with Fran as the coach. If they aren’t deserving of the minutes or simply just aren’t that good it could get really dicey. Maybe the McCaffery’s are okay with that and figure if it does tank then Fran can just enjoy the buyout, Connor can stick to baseball where he looks pretty promising, and Pat should have plenty of transfer suitors.

Again mere speculation, but if we aren’t expecting a tournament next year than it’s simply time to move on from Fran.

 

[lightning1]

It has been 40 years since we tied for the Big Ten Regular Season Championship, the only one under Lute. Before that we have to go back to Ralph Millers reign when he was undefeated in 1970 in the Big Ten.....

Otherwise: Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State, and Purdue have dominated the regular season
Championships. Illinois has had a few championships long ago. Minnesota won one in 1982 and Wisconsin won once in 2008.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Big_Ten_Conference_men's_basketball_regular_season_champions

It is a classic case of the Haves and the have nots.....

Alford made the second round once his first year when we beat Creighton in the Dance. Since then he lost in the first round in the NIT twice and NCAA two times including NW State, a disgrace and nightmare for all Hawk fans.....

What? Wisconsin won 4 BIG titles since 2002! Guess how long it was before that? 1947! It CAN happen at Iowa. You just can't have fans that settle for mediocrity and a dog shit Athletic Director.

 

[RobHowe]

I think this Iowa team could use some “good” attrition actually anyway. Just depends who it is I guess.

As I posted elsewhere the three players most likely to be in an Iowa uniform next year are Jordan Bohannon (3rd team BIG), Luka Garza (HM B1G), and Joe Wieskamp (1st Freshman B1G). So that’s a pretty good starting point.

I guess the biggest concern to me is next year is really it’s just about the McCaffery’s. I’ve seen plenty of speculation but the one thing I keep hearing is the ultimate goal for them is for Connor and Pat to play on the same team with Fran as the coach. If they aren’t deserving of the minutes or simply just aren’t that good it could get really dicey. Maybe the McCaffery’s are okay with that and figure if it does tank then Fran can just enjoy the buyout, Connor can stick to baseball where he looks pretty promising, and Pat should have plenty of transfer suitors.

Again mere speculation, but if we aren’t expecting a tournament next year than it’s simply time to move on from Fran.

If I'm betting on it, Connor and Patrick will both be members of next year's rotation.

 

[NikeHawk21]

What? Wisconsin won 4 BIG titles since 2002! Guess how long it was before that? 1947! It CAN happen at Iowa. You just can't have fans that settle for mediocrity and a dog shit Athletic Director.

It’s amazing the athletic program they’ve built over their under an AD who demands success.

They are a 6 seed this year and their fan base is restless with their team and Gard. Imagine if they were a 10 seed and their coach got suspended during the year.

 

[thedukeofearl]

What? Wisconsin won 4 BIG titles since 2002! Guess how long it was before that? 1947! It CAN happen at Iowa. You just can't have fans that settle for mediocrity and a dog shit Athletic Director.

Sorry, my brain has extreme difficulty recognizing the letter w and the color red.....

How does that unintended ommision relate to the FACT that we tied for the Big Ten Championship in 1979 and never since. That is 40 years ago, and Fran is not alone sharing the blame.....

 

[lightning1]

If I'm betting on it, Connor and Patrick will both be members of next year's rotation.

Patrick really needs to redshirt.

 

[Xerxes]

Fran has not come close to Mr. Davis's level. Not even scratching the surface.

Davis (minus GR's recruits)

10 years
6 tournament appearances
7-6 overall tournament record
1 Sweet 16 appearance

Fran (not counting his first 2 years because of Lick's mess)

7 years
4 tournament appearances
2-3 overall tournament record (through 3 of those appearances)
0 trips to the Sweet 16

Basically if Fran made a Sweet 16 run this season, he pull even with Davis in that regard.

As for their success in the B1G with their own programs, not helped or hurt by previous coaches, Fran is ahead of him already.

Davis 90-86 .511
Fran 67-62 .519

 

[RobHowe]

Patrick really needs to redshirt.

I'd be very surprised if that happens.

 

[sioux34]

Then why even have a sports program? Shut the doors if you're afraid to even try.

I didnt say i was afraid to try, i am just pointing out the fact that going down a level is more likely than going up as history has demonstrated. Lets just look at hires in what I would consider the modern era at Iowa. Lets start with Lute, next coach Raveling, better recruiter, worse coach, next Mr. Davis, better coach, worse recruiter, overall a step up. Next, Alf hot young motivated coach who was worse in all areas. Next Lick, another step down in all areas. Next Fran. A step up from Lick for sure, a little better than Alf, near on par with Mr. Davis. So in 5 coaching changes 3 went down and only 2 up. The odds just are not in our favor.

 

[tksirius]

Heck, Iowa didn't sneeze at paying $6M in the discrimination case. The buyout next year would be $7M.

I'd probably do a FOIA request before making that statement.