HN 2013 On the Record: Football Prediction

[dave3912]

I am not going to go on record with a game-by-game or overall prediction for the entire season, as that is fairly pointless, but I will go on record that this is at best a 2-2 team in the OOC (losses to Clown U and N Ill), and I have a hard time seeing our first victory at TCF coming against the best Minnesota team in several years, considering that we have already lost twice there to HORRIBLE, AWFUL, MISERABLY bad Goof squads. We will get one of the B1G heavyweights at home in the "OMG, how in the world did they pull that off" KF special, but this team will not finish anywhere near .500.

So, let me get this straight, you seem to believe that past will justify the future more than anyone on this message board.

Iowa went (5-1) five times and out of those 5 times, they had a great year 3 times and only a bad year 2. You also believe that because Iowa lost to 2 horrible gophers teams 2-3 years ago not counting the team they beat last year when Iowa was 4-8 that you assume Iowa cannot beat the gophers as their team is the best in several years.

The past teams have not relevance as to how the current teams will play, especially teams from more than 2-3 years ago that basically none of the same starters and if they do, they have more experience now. Plus most of the schools coaching staffs have changed as well.

 

[FreedomHawk]

So, let me get this straight, you seem to believe that past will justify the future more than anyone on this message board. Iowa went (5-1) five times and out of those 5 times, they had a great year 3 times and only a bad year 2. You also believe that because Iowa lost to 2 horrible gophers teams 2-3 years ago not counting the team they beat last year when Iowa was 4-8 that you assume Iowa cannot beat the gophers as their team is the best in several years. The past teams have not relevance as to how the current teams will play, especially teams from more than 2-3 years ago that basically none of the same starters and if they do, they have more experience now. Plus most of the schools coaching staffs have changed as well.

The Minnesota team that Iowa beat last year was playing their 3rd string QB.

 

[dave3912]

The Minnesota team that Iowa beat last year was playing their 3rd string QB.

I am so glad that you only responded with he was the gopher's 3rd string QB and not addressing anything else. Besides, that was the worst Iowa team in over a decade, easily. Not to mention how horrid Iowa's offense was as well. Yet they walked all over Minnesota in the first half before KF went super conservative in the 2nd half. 3rd string QB vs. Iowa's horrid offense all around. You say the Gophers had a bigger disadvantage, I disagree.

 

[FreedComanche]

Well I sat in their high school stadium in 2007 and watched one of the worst D1 teams in America, coming off a double digit loss to freakin UNI, kick 5 fgs and beat JC6 and the Hawks in one of the worst "football" games that I've ever seen in my life (until last year's Cy-Hawk affair, which made the 2007 game look like an instant classic), so pardon the hell out of me if I don't find it too far fetched that a Bottom 10 Clown outfit can still beat a mediocre Iowa team, especially in Lames.

Sorry, didn't mean to come off as attacking. For the reasons I have mentioned, there is no exuse for Iowa to lose to the clones in 13.

FreedComanche

 

[hwk23]

Sorry, didn't mean to come off as attacking. For the reasons I have mentioned, there is no exuse for Iowa to lose to the clones in 13.

FreedComanche

I agree, I'm more worried about NIU.

 

[FreedComanche]

I agree, I'm more worried about NIU.

I think NIU is picked to win the MAC again this year. Could be wrong about that. Anyway, I have the hawks losing to them. Jordan Lynch is very good and is the sort of qb that has always given the hawks D fits.

FreedComanche

 

[atxhawk]

Last years offense was bad but the line should be good if healthy. The line has a lot of talent and guys that have played. The TEs are very good. There are several capable running backs. Martin Manley is a solid receiver. There are some good pieces in place.

Weisman and Bullock combined for 1377 and 4.7 yds per carry and that was playing with a makeshift line in the last half of the year.
They return players that accounted for 161 receptions for 1574 yds.

TE's I'm not worried about, WR and QB are what I'm worried about. KMM had 52 for 571 last year while the other 4 returning receivers had 22 catches for 247 yards. That's what I'm worried about. I guess it would have been better to say I'm worried if there is a #2 guy out there, otherwise KMM can expect a lot of double teams.

The o-line should be decent, but they are replacing a 3 year starter at center.

The starting QB has zero college snaps, along with the backup, and his backup.

Can whoever the QB is run the system? Will KF let the system actually be run? Can the offense get a first down or 2 on every drive and help out the defense?

 

[SpiderRico]

This is what I know after 14 years of watching KF coached teams:

1. The man knows how to develop players, pure and simple.
2. His teams typically perform better when they have little to no national pub early on.
3. No matter what type of season we are having, we typically lose to a team we had no business losing to and on the flipside, will typically beat a team we had no business beating.


Based on those three things and based on having a year under our belts with a slew of new coaches and old coaches in new positions, these are my predictions:

Northern Illinois - Win - While they still have Lynch who accounted for nearly 5,000 yds of total offense, they lost their head coach, best receiver and rb and a slew of defensive starters. Plus it's at Kinnick.
Missouri State - Win - Hopefully by a wide margin.
@ Iowa State - Win - Even though it's at Jack Trice, this might be one of Rhoads' worst teams....at least early on. We should dominate them in the trenches. Will be close as nearly all of them have been since 1998.
Western Michigan - Win - KF can't go 0-fer against this team, can he?
@Minnesota - Win - We finally exorcise the demons of TCF Bank Stadium!
Michigan State - Win - We should be better, they lose a lot. It's at Kinnick.
OSU - Loss - It's at Columbus...nothing more to say except that.
Northwestern - Loss - I don't like the matchup against Mark and Colter as much as I do the following week against Wisky.
Wisconsin - Win - Much more of a match-up, style-wise. And it's at Kinnick. And we owe them for 2010.
@Purdue - Win - Just a gut feeling....nothing more than that.
Michigan - Loss - This will be closer than people think. At Kinnick, late November, and still something to play for as my prediction is 8-2 coming into this game
@ Nebraska - Win - This is the one we get this year that we have no business getting.

Final prediction - 9-3

 

[bighawkeyedaddy]

N. Illinois- loss
Mo. State- win
Iowa St- loss
W. Michigan- loss
Minny- win
Ohio St- loss
Mich St- loss
NW- loss
Wisky- loss
Purdue- win
Michigan- loss
Nebraska- loss

3-9. I hope I am dead wrong and that record is reversed.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

OK, rather than go game-by-game, I am just going to say 7-5 and a bowl bid.

 

[hawkinn3]

Will anyone be shocked at any loss this season? Missouri state would shock me but NIU or WMU would not. Can't recall the last time we had only one game I considered a lock of a win.

 

[homes]

8-4, wins over NIU, Missouri State, ISU, W. Michigan and 4-4 in the BT. Losses to Michigan and OSU. The rest are toss ups, but 4 wins in there someplace. Anyone who predicts less than 8-4 is clearly not a Hawk fan.

 

[bighawkeyedaddy]

8-4, wins over NIU, Missouri State, ISU, W. Michigan and 4-4 in the BT. Losses to Michigan and OSU. The rest are toss ups, but 4 wins in there someplace. Anyone who predicts less than 8-4 is clearly not a Hawk fan.

LOL, what?

 

[Golfer]

If the o line is as solid as advertised, we can run the ball, and if the defense steps up, we could potentially see a surprising 7 or 8 wins. But this year, more than most, can go downhill fast. We really don't know if the o line will be solid, and the defense is a big question mark. 6 wins and a bowl game for the extra practices, and I'd be happy.

2014 on paper right now is looking very good. That's an eternity away, and lots of things, both good and bad, can happen.

My instinct is we out perform most predictions, but given most predictions, that wouldn't take much. Most don't have us with more than 4-5 W's.

 

[homes]

LOL, what?

No one gets bonus points for being "realistic" on the hawkeyenation.com football forum page. It's too depressing. I prefer blue sky 30 days out from the start of the football season.

 

[DP5555]

I don't think KF has ever been under this much pressure during his tenure at Iowa. I've got a strong feeling the team is going to come out fighting for him this year. Which in my opinion means this will not be a year where you see the Hawks lose any games they have no right losing. With that said here is my prediction:

N. Illinois- Very close Win
Mo. State- Win by double digits
Iowa St- Win by 7 or more
W. Michigan- Win by double digits
Minny- Win by 10 or less
Ohio St- loss by 14 or more
Mich St- Very close win
NW- Loss by 3
Wisky- Win by 3
Purdue- Win by 7
Michigan- Loss by 14 or more
Nebraska- Loss by 7

So I have them at 8-4, but could very easily see 7-5 as well with a loss to either MSU or Wiscy. All of this is assuming they stay relatively healthy, which as an Iowa fan is beginning to seem impossible.

If the RB's and offensive line do manage to stay healthy I think the Hawks will have one of if not the best traditional running games in the Big 10, and an average at best passing attack. Davis brought in his guy to help get the Wide Receivers on the same page, and I was really excited about some of the comments Ferentz made regarding Chris White at the media days. I think we'll notice that his addition has made a positive impact in the passing game and special teams play. Seems like the players have really taken to him. I don't think his impact as WR coach will be enough to overcome the lack of talent the Hawks have at that position. However, playmakers at TE should be just enough to make the passing attack a threat worthy of keeping defenses honest.

I do believe the defense will be better, but will still struggle mightily with mobile QB's. This is why I still think it will be a struggle to beat Northern Illinois, and we'll see losses to Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska. Although all three linebackers are returning they have all seemed to struggle against spread out zone read offenses, and the Hawks don't have a playmaker at defensive end like Clayborn who can help out the linebackers by wrecking havoc on an option game.

Ultimately, I'll be pretty damn happy with 7 or more wins. 6-6 will have me officially on the fence, and anything less than that will have me join the crowd that is ready to see a change made at HC (depending on the injury situation of course).

Sorry for the rather long prediction. I want to look back on this at the end of the season and reflect.

So excited we're only about a month away! Go Hawks!

 

[theboat]

No one gets bonus points for being "realistic" on the hawkeyenation.com football forum page. It's too depressing. I prefer blue sky 30 days out from the start of the football season.

it was cloudy at lunch.

 

[NCHawker]

So many folks got us losing to the clones this year. Maybe most folks don't have a good idea how horrible the clones will really be this year?



FreedComanche

I'm not convinced that Wisky will be that good - I think they stumble for a year or two.

 

[Golfer]

On paper we should beat ISU this year. We start slow, and this isn't a prediction, but I think this game shows us quite a lot about how excited to get about this year's team. At least this year's team should get better throughout the season.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

This is what I know after 14 years of watching KF coached teams:

1. The man knows how to develop players, pure and simple.
2. His teams typically perform better when they have little to no national pub early on.
3. No matter what type of season we are having, we typically lose to a team we had no business losing to and on the flipside, will typically beat a team we had no business beating.


Based on those three things and based on having a year under our belts with a slew of new coaches and old coaches in new positions, these are my predictions:

Northern Illinois - Win - While they still have Lynch who accounted for nearly 5,000 yds of total offense, they lost their head coach, best receiver and rb and a slew of defensive starters. Plus it's at Kinnick.
Missouri State - Win - Hopefully by a wide margin.
@ Iowa State - Win - Even though it's at Jack Trice, this might be one of Rhoads' worst teams....at least early on. We should dominate them in the trenches. Will be close as nearly all of them have been since 1998.
Western Michigan - Win - KF can't go 0-fer against this team, can he?
@Minnesota - Win - We finally exorcise the demons of TCF Bank Stadium!
Michigan State - Win - We should be better, they lose a lot. It's at Kinnick.
OSU - Loss - It's at Columbus...nothing more to say except that.
Northwestern - Loss - I don't like the matchup against Mark and Colter as much as I do the following week against Wisky.
Wisconsin - Win - Much more of a match-up, style-wise. And it's at Kinnick. And we owe them for 2010.
@Purdue - Win - Just a gut feeling....nothing more than that.
Michigan - Loss - This will be closer than people think. At Kinnick, late November, and still something to play for as my prediction is 8-2 coming into this game
@ Nebraska - Win - This is the one we get this year that we have no business getting.

Final prediction - 9-3

Exactly how I have it...and have for some time. It's a surprise year...the boys have grown up almost overnight. I remember just last year we had a ton of inexperience starting for the first time in the trenches. Nothing like a year to make you realize what it takes...and a season with no bowl game to really **** you off. Then you get the preseason prognostications whereby you will be battling Minnesota for the bottom of the division...and it pisses you off. Next your coach lands in the top 5 worst coaches in the country...based partly on your performance last year...and it pisses you off. My guess is that there is an edge to this camp unlike the previous few years. We are still young on the OL and DL, but you get the impression the production is going way up from last year...just based on the competition level on both sides. They will make eachother better. NUI will be an interesting game. I'm pretty sure KF is going to show clips of the 6 sacks from last year...our OL will is going to punish these guys. I like the way this is shaping up in 2013.