Hear me out, we have enough data to look at here

InGoodCo

InGoodCo

Well-Known Member
Couple of things here. I've maintained that Kirk is actually Iowa's OC throughout his entire career at Iowa. The buck stops with him. He decides who plays, what schemes are run, who we recruit and how we conduct the Iowa offense. I've always stated that it doesn't really matter who the OC is because it's not going to be a lot different considering who the "real" OC is. There is also a reason that I continue to say "It's never been better at Iowa then it is now", because I honestly believe that. So when Kirk hit 200 this weekend, I thought, ya know, I should look at the records of this Iowa program with all the OC's and the #'s are interesting to say the least.


Iowa 96-66 with KOK = 59% win percetange
Iowa was 39-26 with Davis = 60% win percentage
Iowa is 53-23 with Brian = 70% win perecentage

A lot of you will point at the fact that Iowa's offense has been putrid for a lot of this and I will agree, but something to take note of here is I've always saw Brian more of a "consultant" or someone who has the "ear" of the CEO of the program. I think Brian's limited in what his dad let's him do, but I also think he has more flexibility to bring up ideas and game plans and his voice carries more weight then just about anyone else we could have in the football program. While you see terrible offenses (and I do to) - it's hard to argue that this tenure of Iowa football is winning at a higher clip then what we've been accustomed to as Iowa fans.

anyways - I am not some giant BF fan, I want our offense to be better and all I just think he gets a lot of the blame but I personally think Iowa's been at another level since he arrived in IC. I think he's going to get a lot of credit for Kittle, Fant, Hock, LaPorta, Lachey etc. when all this dusts settles. I also think Iowa has been better in the bowl games and prep and our game plans have just been better executed.

I love Iowa football - witnessing the game on Saturday was pretty great and I'm still running on that high!

https://twitter.com/EliotClough/status/1700644552619524299?s=20
 
Last edited:
Hawkboys said:
3 things that mostly account for the high win % recently:

- Defense and Special Teams have gotten better even tho they've good all along
- The B1G West has been a hot mess the last 5 (maybe longer) years.
Click to expand...
I don't buy the B1G West being a hot mess as that's proven wrong every bowl season and when you look at the cross overs for the most part with the West vs the East.

I do buy that ST and D has been a notch better. I am just a big believer that you play as a team, you win as a team, you lose as a team and it's hard to argue that with our current staff, Iowa is winning more games...which is all I want personally
 
Totally farcical comparison. O'Keefe had 19 losses in his first 2 years when the program was a tire fire. Furthermore, the division concept and expansion under which Brian has operated has given us materially softer conference schedules than what O'Keefe faced. Finally, O'Keefe had to play some teams with a pulse in OOC play, like Pitt, Arizona and Arizona State.
 
okeefe4prez said:
Totally farcical comparison. O'Keefe had 19 losses in his first 2 years when the program was a tire fire. Furthermore, the division concept and expansion under which Brian has operated has given us materially softer conference schedules than what O'Keefe faced. Finally, O'Keefe had to play some teams with a pulse in OOC play, like Pitt, Arizona and Arizona State.
Click to expand...
One could argue that ISU has been better than any of those Pitt, AZ or ASU teams a few of these past few seasons....or at least on par with them. I don't buy the easier schedule either, that's just wishful thinking. Iowa has performed well against TOSU, PSU and Michigan when they HAVE played.

And again, you can't just randomly select seasons you don't want to count to make your arguement. Should we cancel Davis's first season because KOK left him with shit? No, let's just count all the games for the sake of we should count them all vs just taking out what we don't like.

I think Iowa likes to play complementary football. They get agressive when they need to, they are conservative when they believe that is their best option to win the ball game....and I am fairly positive that is what is being coached from the guy in charge.
 
InGoodCo said:
One could argue that ISU has been better than any of those Pitt, AZ or ASU teams a few of these past few seasons....or at least on par with them. I don't buy the easier schedule either, that's just wishful thinking. Iowa has performed well against TOSU, PSU and Michigan when they HAVE played.

And again, you can't just randomly select seasons you don't want to count to make your arguement. Should we cancel Davis's first season because KOK left him with shit? No, let's just count all the games for the sake of we should count them all vs just taking out what we don't like.

I think Iowa likes to play complementary football. They get agressive when they need to, they are conservative when they believe that is their best option to win the ball game....and I am fairly positive that is what is being coached from the guy in charge.
Click to expand...

Yes, ISU is maybe better than those teams now, but we also played ISU every one of those years under O'Keefe and by and large ISU was markedly better then than it is now.

Iowa beat Ohio in 2017. We managed to avoid them for 5 years. In the last game against Ohio our offense was utterly embarrassed. 3 points, 1-13 on third down. Michigan beat our ass in the title game and Harbaugh totally toyed with us last year at Kinnick. I guess if you consider getting waxed 54-10 or 42-3 to be performing "well" we'll just have to agree to disagree.
 
Even if you peel off 10 losses from KOK given the first couple seasons, he still lands at 64%.

I agree that this is painting with a pretty broad brush and there are a lot of factors to consider here, but I do agree with the overall premise that KF runs the show and no matter who the OC is, they cannot shine given how KF manages his teams.

I honestly think all three of these guys are about the same level of average. Any OC worth a lick would not take the job. KF had to hire his best friend, then pull a dinasaur who no one else wanted off the scrap heap, and then hire his son.
 
okeefe4prez said:
Yes, ISU is maybe better than those teams now, but we also played ISU every one of those years under O'Keefe and by and large ISU was markedly better then than it is now.

Iowa beat Ohio in 2017. We managed to avoid them for 5 years. In the last game against Ohio our offense was utterly embarrassed. 3 points, 1-13 on third down. Michigan beat our ass in the title game and Harbaugh totally toyed with us last year at Kinnick. I guess if you consider getting waxed 54-10 or 42-3 to be performing "well" we'll just have to agree to disagree.
Click to expand...
There are outlier games in any argument, Iowa's record vs the top teams in the West has been decent regardless of who the OC is, which is back to my point.

I've always looked more at Brian as assistant HC vs OC and IMO, I kind of feel like he's been one of the driving forces of change the last 6 or 7 seasons. I realize I am 1000% in the minority with this thought. I look at it a little different and the reason for that is the nepotism right?

I think Brian has a lot more pull/say/game plan then just being the OC of Iowa which I why I haven't always felt like it's all on him for just the offense. Lots of hands in there. Iowa has been better since he's been a part of the program though and you can easily see it by their record. We can't really agree to disagree on that because of ya know, like, stats of Wins and Loses.
 
One related aspect that I think is interesting is that Iowa has become even MORE Iowa since Brian became OC. To your point, maybe that's because Brian knows exactly what Kirk wants and is able to better execute that vision than the two other OCs.

It comes back to something I posted last year. That Iowa was like 2-15 in its last 17 games against teams that ended up ranked in the top 25. Which coincides with Brian becoming OC.

It's not all bad. Iowa has become incredibly consistent during that stretch and almost always wins when favored to do so. More than ever, they know who they are and lean into that style. Like you show, Iowa is winning at a really good clip these days. There are only a couple games that Iowa dropped when it shouldn't have over that stretch - that's impressive and really hard to do.

At the same time, Iowa has almost never beat the superior team over the last six years. At least if you judge it by where those teams end up ranked.

And I think the two wins in that stretch over final top 25 teams were late season games in which Iowa had already been eliminated from the West race - OSU and Minnesota. The offensive game plan was uncharacteristic of them and decidedly looser.

Like I said, in Kirk's mind, maybe Brian has been closer to what he wants from an OC than even the previous two guys.
 
InGoodCo said:
I don't buy the B1G West being a hot mess as that's proven wrong every bowl season and when you look at the cross overs for the most part with the West vs the East.

I do buy that ST and D has been a notch better. I am just a big believer that you play as a team, you win as a team, you lose as a team and it's hard to argue that with our current staff, Iowa is winning more games...which is all I want personally
Click to expand...
The stats on East vs West crossovers have been totally clear and typically ignored. Not much difference between the two. Take OSU out of the equation as they continue to win BT championships and the gap becomes very narrow.
Yes, I have noticed that Michigan is back. Took a while. So, I agree with GoodCo.
 
InGoodCo said:
There are outlier games in any argument, Iowa's record vs the top teams in the West has been decent regardless of who the OC is, which is back to my point.

I've always looked more at Brian as assistant HC vs OC and IMO, I kind of feel like he's been one of the driving forces of change the last 6 or 7 seasons. I realize I am 1000% in the minority with this thought. I look at it a little different and the reason for that is the nepotism right?

I think Brian has a lot more pull/say/game plan then just being the OC of Iowa which I why I haven't always felt like it's all on him for just the offense. Lots of hands in there. Iowa has been better since he's been a part of the program though and you can easily see it by their record. We can't really agree to disagree on that because of ya know, like, stats of Wins and Loses.
Click to expand...
I don’t know where to land on this one. But. There is some clear validity to this argument. Those who continue to claim that KF ultimately calls the shots might do well to cut BF some slack. As to your stats on OC’s. They sure as hell are what they are.
 
SwirlinLingerie said:
One related aspect that I think is interesting is that Iowa has become even MORE Iowa since Brian became OC. To your point, maybe that's because Brian knows exactly what Kirk wants and is able to better execute that vision than the two other OCs.

It comes back to something I posted last year. That Iowa was like 2-15 in its last 17 games against teams that ended up ranked in the top 25. Which coincides with Brian becoming OC.

It's not all bad. Iowa has become incredibly consistent during that stretch and almost always wins when favored to do so. More than ever, they know who they are and lean into that style. Like you show, Iowa is winning at a really good clip these days. There are only a couple games that Iowa dropped when it shouldn't have over that stretch - that's impressive and really hard to do.

At the same time, Iowa has almost never beat the superior team over the last six years. At least if you judge it by where those teams end up ranked.

And I think the two wins in that stretch over final top 25 teams were late season games in which Iowa had already been eliminated from the West race - OSU and Minnesota. The offensive game plan was uncharacteristic of them and decidedly looser.

Like I said, in Kirk's mind, maybe Brian has been closer to what he wants from an OC than even the previous two guys.
Click to expand...
Not arguing with your logic, but I wonder what the records are against top 25 teams over that span at the time we played them. Not saying that 2-15 isn't appalling, but I'm also one of those guys that think end of the season rankings are biased more toward some teams/conferences then others. While the majority of those ranked games are coming against conference foes or bowl opponents I feel like it's much easier for a mediocre team in the 18-25 spot find their way out of the rankings when a team with a similar record with a big name or different conference affiliation seems to find a way to stick around.
 
SwirlinLingerie said:
One related aspect that I think is interesting is that Iowa has become even MORE Iowa since Brian became OC. To your point, maybe that's because Brian knows exactly what Kirk wants and is able to better execute that vision than the two other OCs.

It comes back to something I posted last year. That Iowa was like 2-15 in its last 17 games against teams that ended up ranked in the top 25. Which coincides with Brian becoming OC.

It's not all bad. Iowa has become incredibly consistent during that stretch and almost always wins when favored to do so. More than ever, they know who they are and lean into that style. Like you show, Iowa is winning at a really good clip these days. There are only a couple games that Iowa dropped when it shouldn't have over that stretch - that's impressive and really hard to do.

At the same time, Iowa has almost never beat the superior team over the last six years. At least if you judge it by where those teams end up ranked.

And I think the two wins in that stretch over final top 25 teams were late season games in which Iowa had already been eliminated from the West race - OSU and Minnesota. The offensive game plan was uncharacteristic of them and decidedly looser.

Like I said, in Kirk's mind, maybe Brian has been closer to what he wants from an OC than even the previous two guys.
Click to expand...

I think you gotta look at the time when they played teams rankings. I get the end of the year thing, but then you are losing out on a ton of teams that Iowa likely knocked out of the final rankings in Bowl Games or down the stretch of seasons, like MN and WI. For example, in 2017 - both BC and Iowa came into that game just outside the top 25. Iowa beat them, and Iowa was in the final poll and BC wasn't. Does that mean they weren't top 25? Ok, sure.

in 2020, they beat #25 WI in the final game of the season and that likely bounced them out of the final polls

In 2019 - they beat #22 USC in their bowl game which knocked USC out of the final rankings.

Last season they beat KY - who would have likely been ranked had they lost that game in the final AP.

I don't put much stock in that 2-15 # as it's not real objective when you have a team like Iowa bouncing out a ton of these teams from the top 25
 
I suspect no one on this board wants to be seen as a BF apologist. He is bad. I think he two predecessors were as bad or worse. That said, I watched a Minnesota Vikings team score 17 points against an ok Bucs team with a veteran QB and the best WR currently walking the earth. Neither the Broncos or the Raiders cracked 20 yesterday. Giants got skunked in a blowout.

My point is that scoring points in football is harder than it looks, but that is especially true when you actually don't need to score that much to win. Maybe KF is leaving Natties on the table by hiring his buddies and kid to run his pedestrian offense, but he has won a lot of games in the last 24 years and has only gotten stronger in that regard of late. Its KF's team. Period.
 
The thing I like most about Brian…. During his tenure, the bar has been raised to 9-3. There were decades before him there were so many years 8 wins was the ceiling. I’m looking at this season and think Iowa will be favored in all but 1 or 2 games. That’s not something that always happened under past OCs.
 
InGoodCo said:
I think you gotta look at the time when they played teams rankings. I get the end of the year thing, but then you are losing out on a ton of teams that Iowa likely knocked out of the final rankings in Bowl Games or down the stretch of seasons, like MN and WI. For example, in 2017 - both BC and Iowa came into that game just outside the top 25. Iowa beat them, and Iowa was in the final poll and BC wasn't. Does that mean they weren't top 25? Ok, sure.

in 2020, they beat #25 WI in the final game of the season and that likely bounced them out of the final polls

In 2019 - they beat #22 USC in their bowl game which knocked USC out of the final rankings.

Last season they beat KY - who would have likely been ranked had they lost that game in the final AP.

I don't put much stock in that 2-15 # as it's not real objective when you have a team like Iowa bouncing out a ton of these teams from the top 25
Click to expand...
It's not Iowa bouncing them out of the top 25 - it's the fact those teams cumulatively had 4 or 5 losses on the year and thus ultimately weren't considered one of the top 25 teams when evaluating their seasons.

So in 2021, for instance, you think wins against 2-10 Indiana and 7-6 Iowa State (both ranked at the time Iowa beat them) are a better measure for evaluation?
 
NorthKCHawk said:
Even if you peel off 10 losses from KOK given the first couple seasons, he still lands at 64%.

I agree that this is painting with a pretty broad brush and there are a lot of factors to consider here, but I do agree with the overall premise that KF runs the show and no matter who the OC is, they cannot shine given how KF manages his teams.

I honestly think all three of these guys are about the same level of average. Any OC worth a lick would not take the job. KF had to hire his best friend, then pull a dinasaur who no one else wanted off the scrap heap, and then hire his son.
Click to expand...

It does seem that he seeks out "Yes men", doesn't it. I mean I understand sticking to a philosophy but adhering to it can be said to be what holds KF teams back a bit. Sometimes his offenses play with a tightness to an extent.
 
SwirlinLingerie said:
One related aspect that I think is interesting is that Iowa has become even MORE Iowa since Brian became OC. To your point, maybe that's because Brian knows exactly what Kirk wants and is able to better execute that vision than the two other OCs.

It comes back to something I posted last year. That Iowa was like 2-15 in its last 17 games against teams that ended up ranked in the top 25. Which coincides with Brian becoming OC.

It's not all bad. Iowa has become incredibly consistent during that stretch and almost always wins when favored to do so. More than ever, they know who they are and lean into that style. Like you show, Iowa is winning at a really good clip these days. There are only a couple games that Iowa dropped when it shouldn't have over that stretch - that's impressive and really hard to do.

At the same time, Iowa has almost never beat the superior team over the last six years. At least if you judge it by where those teams end up ranked.

And I think the two wins in that stretch over final top 25 teams were late season games in which Iowa had already been eliminated from the West race - OSU and Minnesota. The offensive game plan was uncharacteristic of them and decidedly looser.

Like I said, in Kirk's mind, maybe Brian has been closer to what he wants from an OC than even the previous two guys.
Click to expand...

It's funny when you think about KF. Half the fan bases in college football would say "hell no" to the idea of having him lead their favorite team. In contrast, the other half would welcome him with open arms as a chance for some consistency and to be competitive in every game.

He really has had an interesting coaching career. It really is a paradigm situation.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Share this page

Top