Hear me out, we have enough data to look at here

[MelroseHawkins]

How many power five teams would tolerate keeping a coach around that hasn’t won a conference title in the last twenty years, AND give him continual pay raises and contract extensions??? Laughable.

Went into the gym yesterday morning. Went over to an older gentleman who was wearing a buckeye shirt. I told him him that he wasn’t allowed to wear that shirt in here! He laughed and we had a good talk about his QB not playing at the level that past buckeye QB’s have played. We talked about the PAC Ten and expansion.

He acknowledged that Iowa has been a solid program over several years. What made me laugh is when he had to ask who is the head coach. Huh?????! He honestly didn’t know. I told him that we have had the same coach for 25 years. When I told him Kurt’s name he still acted like he didn’t know. Maybe Kurt and Byron need to were a grocery bag over their heads like the unknown comedian.

The Unknown Comic - Stand-Up Comedy (1978) - MDA Telethon

If you liked this Unknown Comic video, then check out our Comedians of MDA playlist here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFbA4l-7B5gef7_XZuNgiNtxbcPN...

youtu.be

You have to really wonder about the source. Is he that much of a college fan for krist's sake. KF is the longest tenured coach in college. People should know, even if Iowa is not a blue blood or in the spotlight every season. He's prob a guy who ONLY tunes in to Ohio State games and blocks out anything other than Ohio St.
So, he's an Ohio St. fan but not really a huge college football fan. They are out there.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

For anyone wondering what the actual real stat is, Iowa is 9-11 vs ranked teams with BF as our OC.

Better than I thought it would be actually.

But is it BF or the defense and/or special team play? This is where it gets confusing separating out and trying to use records to prove a coaches worth or efficacy. I haven't let my ship sail on BF at this point like some have, as I think we just had some roster issues going on which hasn't helped. But, the offense has GOT to show something this year with the experience in many positions.

 

[kicker22]

I suspect no one on this board wants to be seen as a BF apologist. He is bad. I think he two predecessors were as bad or worse. That said, I watched a Minnesota Vikings team score 17 points against an ok Bucs team with a veteran QB and the best WR currently walking the earth. Neither the Broncos or the Raiders cracked 20 yesterday. Giants got skunked in a blowout.

My point is that scoring points in football is harder than it looks, but that is especially true when you actually don't need to score that much to win. Maybe KF is leaving Natties on the table by hiring his buddies and kid to run his pedestrian offense, but he has won a lot of games in the last 24 years and has only gotten stronger in that regard of late. Its KF's team. Period.

On the bright side were not the New York Giants. Can't imagine what it feels like for a pro fan base to get shut out 40-0 week 1. Iowa's offense leaves a bad taste in my mouth, but that would be much harder to swallow.

 

[kicker22]

It's not Iowa bouncing them out of the top 25 - it's the fact those teams cumulatively had 4 or 5 losses on the year and thus ultimately weren't considered one of the top 25 teams when evaluating their seasons.

So in 2021, for instance, you think wins against 2-10 Indiana and 7-6 Iowa State (both ranked at the time Iowa beat them) are a better measure for evaluation?

Using 2022 rankings alone, 8 teams were ranked in the top 25 with 4 losses and South Carolina and Texas found themselves ranked at 8-5. I understand where your coming from and agree that Indiana and Iowa State last year aren't necessarily the best measuring sticks, but lets not pretend the rankings aren't biased. I agree that while end of the season results matter I'd like to see what those results look like against teams ranked at that time.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Using 2022 rankings alone, 8 teams were ranked in the top 25 with 4 losses and South Carolina and Texas found themselves ranked at 8-5. I understand where your coming from and agree that Indiana and Iowa State last year aren't necessarily the best measuring sticks, but lets not pretend the rankings aren't biased. I agree that while end of the season results matter I'd like to see what those results look like against teams ranked at that time.

Texas always gets a boost because they are Texas. South Carolina beat Tennessee and Clemson, which were high caliber wins.

 

[kicker22]

Texas always gets a boost because they are Texas. South Carolina beat Tennessee and Clemson, which were high caliber wins.

I agree with you about SC wins being impresses, but some of the losses are equally as bad and Texas does get that "they're Texas" Boost. So with that bias in place I'm in that group that feels that the results against ranked teams at the time of the game doesn't carry as much weight but shouldn't be overlooked either simply because such team didn't end up ranked. I'll add though that the wins against ISU and Indiana aren't wins that I'd use to support that argument as we can all agree those teams were shit.

 

[InGoodCo]

But is it BF or the defense and/or special team play? This is where it gets confusing separating out and trying to use records to prove a coaches worth or efficacy. I haven't let my ship sail on BF at this point like some have, as I think we just had some roster issues going on which hasn't helped. But, the offense has GOT to show something this year with the experience in many positions.

Yeah, I am not really giving the offense much credit here, cause lord knows it hasn't been good. My point is that the program has been winning at a slightly higher clip once he got a bigger voice. I look at Brian more of a Vice President or a "consultant" to Kirk vs being the OC. His voice carries more weight and I feel like Brian has more invested into Iowa football then to just be the macro "offensive" guy. All that matters to Kirk or Brian is winning. If they win, they all win. If they lose, they all lose. Since Brian's been OC, Iowa has been winning more.

I give almost ALL of that credit to the D and ST, but let's be honest, Brian is not really given the opporunity to excel at Iowa in his role. He's not given the green light to really do much more than to be a complimentary piece of the cog that is schemed to play to Iowa's strengths. Iowa's strengths, recruiting focus and focus is on the D. That's not Brian's fault. That is how Iowa wants to win it's games. They would love to get up on every team early, then choke them out with their defense vs. taking shots and risks with their offense in the 2nd half. It means that sometimes we don't have pretty #'s but personally I don't give a shit. Wins are my bottom line, I don't give a shit how we do it. Iowa is winning 70% of it's games for a decade. That's better than it has been, so, I am pretty happy with Iowa football.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

On the bright side were not the New York Giants. Can't imagine what it feels like for a pro fan base to get shut out 40-0 week 1. Iowa's offense leaves a bad taste in my mouth, but that would be much harder to swallow.

I got the luxury of playing the against the Dallas D in my FF league. I haven't even looked at how bad I lost yet!

 

[InGoodCo]

RIght, but when Iowa beats #22 USC and # 18 Mississippi State to end the year and it knocks them out of the top 25 and we don't want to count those as top 25 wins....give me a break. That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Yeah, I am not really giving the offense much credit here, cause lord knows it hasn't been good. My point is that the program has been winning at a slightly higher clip once he got a bigger voice. I look at Brian more of a Vice President or a "consultant" to Kirk vs being the OC. His voice carries more weight and I feel like Brian has more invested into Iowa football then to just be the macro "offensive" guy. All that matters to Kirk or Brian is winning. If they win, they all win. If they lose, they all lose. Since Brian's been OC, Iowa has been winning more.

I give almost ALL of that credit to the D and ST, but let's be honest, Brian is not really given the opporunity to excel at Iowa in his role. He's not given the green light to really do much more than to be a complimentary piece of the cog that is schemed to play to Iowa's strengths. Iowa's strengths, recruiting focus and focus is on the D. That's not Brian's fault. That is how Iowa wants to win it's games. They would love to get up on every team early, then choke them out with their defense vs. taking shots and risks with their offense in the 2nd half. It means that sometimes we don't have pretty #'s but personally I don't give a shit. Wins are my bottom line, I don't give a shit how we do it. Iowa is winning 70% of it's games for a decade. That's better than it has been, so, I am pretty happy with Iowa football.

Great points and spot on. Yes, BF has reigns on him as well as some of the players due to the system. Good point.

 

[CP87]

RIght, but when Iowa beats #22 USC and # 18 Mississippi State to end the year and it knocks them out of the top 25 and we don't want to count those as top 25 wins....give me a break. That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

I think you both basically agree on what's going on...Iowa has been a very good but not elite team. We beat the lesser teams at a very good clip, we have proven capable of occasionally knocking off an elite team, but we are not winning B1G titles and going to the CFB. That description (not winning conference titles and going to CFB playoffs) describes 90-95% of college teams.

I think we can hold 2 things as true simultaneously.

1) Iowa has been better than most programs nationally no matter which window we look at (last 5 years, since "new-Kirk" in 2015, last decade, his entire tenure, etc.).

2) Since 2002, Iowa has never gone into their final game with a chance to be considered in the "elite" group (again, like 90% of programs).

You can feel good about the first thing, while still hoping to make progress toward changing the second thing.

Is firing KF going to move us closer to the second thing? Almost certainly not. We are not sitting on some gold mine of untapped CFB potential, just waiting for the right coach to come along and dig it up (like, for example, Texas, Alabama, ND, FSU, USC, etc.). Having the stability and success of the combined Fry-KF era has elevated what Iowa can become. You don't just throw that stability away in the hopes of buying a winning lottery ticket.

Is getting a new OC going to move us closer to the second thing? This is where you disagree. I think they absolutely should have changed OCs, at the very least after the end of last season, if not earlier. Yes we are winning at a good clip (although we left wins on the table last year), but you have to evaluate the processes, not just the outcomes. Our offensive processes have been busted for several years now by any metric. If you want to argue that BF is integral to the whole team's success despite the offense's struggles, I can't really refute that without being intimately associated with the team, but I am skeptical.

 

[InGoodCo]

I think you both basically agree on what's going on...Iowa has been a very good but not elite team. We beat the lesser teams at a very good clip, we have proven capable of occasionally knocking off an elite team, but we are not winning B1G titles and going to the CFB. That description (not winning conference titles and going to CFB playoffs) describes 90-95% of college teams.

I think we can hold 2 things as true simultaneously.

1) Iowa has been better than most programs nationally no matter which window we look at (last 5 years, since "new-Kirk" in 2015, last decade, his entire tenure, etc.).

2) Since 2002, Iowa has never gone into their final game with a chance to be considered in the "elite" group (again, like 90% of programs).

You can feel good about the first thing, while still hoping to make progress toward changing the second thing.

Is firing KF going to move us closer to the second thing? Almost certainly not. We are not sitting on some gold mine of untapped CFB potential, just waiting for the right coach to come along and dig it up (like, for example, Texas, Alabama, ND, FSU, USC, etc.). Having the stability and success of the combined Fry-KF era has elevated what Iowa can become. You don't just throw that stability away in the hopes of buying a winning lottery ticket.

Is getting a new OC going to move us closer to the second thing? This is where you disagree. I think they absolutely should have changed OCs, at the very least after the end of last season, if not earlier. Yes we are winning at a good clip (although we left wins on the table last year), but you have to evaluate the processes, not just the outcomes. Our offensive processes have been busted for several years now by any metric. If you want to argue that BF is integral to the whole team's success despite the offense's struggles, I can't really refute that without being intimately associated with the team, but I am skeptical.

And my counter to that is, what really good OC wants to come to Iowa where they are limited in what the HC will let you do and you are the heel of the fan base no matter what? Iowa could change OC's every 5 years and it would still look earily similar regardless who sits in that seat, cause it always has. There have been outlier years, but for the most part, this is how Kirk has won games for a quarter centrury. We have 20 years of data of Iowa not being an offense juggernaut under multiple OC's. Now, I am sure there will be plenty lining up for the job but "most" coordinators make that step with their next gig in mind right? If you're an OC and you go to Iowa, you limit yourself considerably to be any sort of candidate for an upward career step. Not exactly a job that's going to lead you to your next step, and we are to assume that the other OC is heads and shoulders above what we have now and does that even matter if that position is going to be nuetered like it is at Iowa? I think Brian Ferentz cares and has more invested in this program then just about anyone that can sit in that seat.

If BF was not coaching at Iowa, he would be a position coach in the NFL. But, he chose to come to Iowa because that's where his dad is and it matters to him. IMO, if I had to bet on Kirk hiring a better OC then Brian, I would put that at like 2% chance of that happening and Iowa loses a pretty good coach as a result, just to feed to the fans.

 

[InGoodCo]

I would also like to add that if BF doesn't hit the 25 points a game mark that there is a better chance of Kirk taking a dump on that contract at midfield live on youtube vs. BF being fired.

 

[CP87]

I would also like to add that if BF doesn't hit the 25 points a game mark that there is a better chance of Kirk taking a dump on that contract at midfield live on youtube vs. BF being fired.

Sounds like a pay-per-view goldmine.

 

[CP87]

And my counter to that is, what really good OC wants to come to Iowa where they are limited in what the HC will let you do and you are the heel of the fan base no matter what? Iowa could change OC's every 5 years and it would still look earily similar regardless who sits in that seat, cause it always has. There have been outlier years, but for the most part, this is how Kirk has won games for a quarter centrury. We have 20 years of data of Iowa not being an offense juggernaut under multiple OC's. Now, I am sure there will be plenty lining up for the job but "most" coordinators make that step with their next gig in mind right? If you're an OC and you go to Iowa, you limit yourself considerably to be any sort of candidate for an upward career step. Not exactly a job that's going to lead you to your next step, and we are to assume that the other OC is heads and shoulders above what we have now and does that even matter if that position is going to be nuetered like it is at Iowa? I think Brian Ferentz cares and has more invested in this program then just about anyone that can sit in that seat.

If BF was not coaching at Iowa, he would be a position coach in the NFL. But, he chose to come to Iowa because that's where his dad is and it matters to him. IMO, if I had to bet on Kirk hiring a better OC then Brian, I would put that at like 2% chance of that happening and Iowa loses a pretty good coach as a result, just to feed to the fans.

I get it. I so desperately want him to let it all go and turn the reins over to someone innovative and not so risk averse. I am not even positive it would improve things, it might play against some aspects of our complementary approach. But I just want to see him roll the dice to see if we can break through, even if it is an irrational hope. As long as KF is CEO and Parker and Woods are running D and ST, I think we can afford to take risks on O without sinking the whole ship.

 

[InGoodCo]

I get it. I so desperately want him to let it all go and turn the reins over to someone innovative and not so risk averse. I am not even positive it would improve things, it might play against some aspects of our complementary approach. But I just want to see him roll the dice to see if we can break through, even if it is an irrational hope. As long as KF is CEO and Parker and Woods are running D and ST, I think we can afford to take risks on O without sinking the whole ship.

That I agree on. I think Iowa can be more aggressive, they just aren't. I was in Ames, they weren't really even trying to score after they got up 17-0. At that point, Kirk's mindset has to be, don't turn it over and we win this. I felt they were trying to milk the clock and get out with a W. It almost bit them there too and lord knows Iowa is going to have to be more innovative when they go to PSU.

I would listen to the argument that having this shitty offense makes it next to impossible for Iowa to take the next step and for them to compete with whoever else is going to make the B1G championship. It's why I will be sad when the divisions end. As it stands, we are one of the top dogs in the West every season....once we add USC, UCLA, OR, and WA - where is Iowa in that mix? 7th? 8th? I'm not saying they will always finish there, but we're about to go from being the big dog in a pack to a middle of the row team in a big pack as far as clout. I don't want this to end but it's going to.

 

[BigD]

But is it BF or the defense and/or special team play? This is where it gets confusing separating out and trying to use records to prove a coaches worth or efficacy. I haven't let my ship sail on BF at this point like some have, as I think we just had some roster issues going on which hasn't helped. But, the offense has GOT to show something this year with the experience in many positions.

Think about the possibilities if the offense was just average or somewhere in the middle such as 60th. We are not asking for a top ten offense every season but just to be in top sixty. The money, the facilities, and supportive fan base dictate that this should not be acceptable.

Kirk is not stupid and has to be aware of the potential here if he can improve the offense. Personally I think given the things I pointed out above there is no reason not to actually be a top 40 team offensively. This flaw in Kirk’s coaching philosophy is what has held him back from having a higher chance to make the playoff.

What true fan doesn’t want to play for it at least once in a while? We all would love it. So why is he so stubborn to change things. The moderator on this forum has suggested over and over again that Kirk doesn’t care what the Iowa fans think or feel. What does that leave? That is suggesting that his value is money. Has Kirk just cared about that? He is guarding his return paycheck every year. Actually this would normal. If this is the case then why are some on here so defensive in wanting to keep a coach that maxes out 8 or 9 wins but denies the fans the ultimate dream.

For that to happen you have to get to the playoff. The offensive philosophy is prohibitive of that ever happening. The loyal fans that have supported and followed the Iowa program are deserving of it. So why doesn’t he attempt to change things up to progress to this goal?

When Hayden got here he said the Iowa fans had a loser mentality and that that culture needed to be changed. That the fans and those around the program had to believe that they could win. From bottom feeders to a Rose Bowl in just a few years.

If appears now we are out of the bottom feeder’s category to middle upper half. Seems to be acceptable to most but why not try to upgrade to get a same level of offense among the entire college football world. Just being in the top 40 to top 60 would be a game changer and give the fans a hope of reaching to playoff.

Kirk seems content with staying on cruise control.

 

[BigD]

I think you both basically agree on what's going on...Iowa has been a very good but not elite team. We beat the lesser teams at a very good clip, we have proven capable of occasionally knocking off an elite team, but we are not winning B1G titles and going to the CFB. That description (not winning conference titles and going to CFB playoffs) describes 90-95% of college teams.

I think we can hold 2 things as true simultaneously.

1) Iowa has been better than most programs nationally no matter which window we look at (last 5 years, since "new-Kirk" in 2015, last decade, his entire tenure, etc.).

2) Since 2002, Iowa has never gone into their final game with a chance to be considered in the "elite" group (again, like 90% of programs).

You can feel good about the first thing, while still hoping to make progress toward changing the second thing.

Is firing KF going to move us closer to the second thing? Almost certainly not. We are not sitting on some gold mine of untapped CFB potential, just waiting for the right coach to come along and dig it up (like, for example, Texas, Alabama, ND, FSU, USC, etc.). Having the stability and success of the combined Fry-KF era has elevated what Iowa can become. You don't just throw that stability away in the hopes of buying a winning lottery ticket.

Is getting a new OC going to move us closer to the second thing? This is where you disagree. I think they absolutely should have changed OCs, at the very least after the end of last season, if not earlier. Yes we are winning at a good clip (although we left wins on the table last year), but you have to evaluate the processes, not just the outcomes. Our offensive processes have been busted for several years now by any metric. If you want to argue that BF is integral to the whole team's success despite the offense's struggles, I can't really refute that without being intimately associated with the team, but I am skeptical.

This is an excellent post and really strikes at the heart of my message above. There was concern that Hayden may move to the NFL or go to an elite program. Well it didn’t happen. Then when his health started to slip his energy to recruit dropped off and eventually Hayden was gone. Oh no Iowa football was finished for ever oh no! Who the hell is Kirk. Coaching as an assistant in the NFL and at some poll dunk nothing college. Oh no!!!! Letting Stoops go…….. oh no!!!! The end we imminent oh no!!!!!

If Parker stayed and Kirk and Son left we would be fine. Any coach can match on offense what Kirk and Son have managed to eff up.

The problem is would Parker stay on? Maybe not. That would be a problem. No one wants a shit show like what we have watched at Nebraska. That’s a fear in Hawkeye land. Paralyzed by fear is where we are.

 

[BigD]

That I agree on. I think Iowa can be more aggressive, they just aren't. I was in Ames, they weren't really even trying to score after they got up 17-0. At that point, Kirk's mindset has to be, don't turn it over and we win this. I felt they were trying to milk the clock and get out with a W. It almost bit them there too and lord knows Iowa is going to have to be more innovative when they go to PSU.

I would listen to the argument that having this shitty offense makes it next to impossible for Iowa to take the next step and for them to compete with whoever else is going to make the B1G championship. It's why I will be sad when the divisions end. As it stands, we are one of the top dogs in the West every season....once we add USC, UCLA, OR, and WA - where is Iowa in that mix? 7th? 8th? I'm not saying they will always finish there, but we're about to go from being the big dog in a pack to a middle of the row team in a big pack as far as clout. I don't want this to end but it's going to.

Sorry catching up on some of these post. This is an excellent post. I see we actually agree on the problem. Kirk can be 95 years old and be out there in a wheel chair if he would just be willing to change his offensive philosophy.

It is very frustrating as a fan. Go for the jugular and destroy these teams when they’re down. Kick the crap out of them when they’re on the ground!! Like you said it almost came back to bite us. One missed coverage and ISU is going for two points to win the game.

 

[InGoodCo]

This is an excellent post and really strikes at the heart of my message above. There was concern that Hayden may move to the NFL or go to an elite program. Well it didn’t happen. Then when his health started to slip his energy to recruit dropped off and eventually Hayden was gone. Oh no Iowa football was finished for ever oh no! Who the hell is Kirk. Coaching as an assistant in the NFL and at some poll dunk nothing college. Oh no!!!! Letting Stoops go…….. oh no!!!! The end we imminent oh no!!!!!

If Parker stayed and Kirk and Son left we would be fine. Any coach can match on offense what Kirk and Son have managed to eff up.

The problem is would Parker stay on? Maybe not. That would be a problem. No one wants a shit show like what we have watched at Nebraska. That’s a fear in Hawkeye land. Paralyzed by fear is where we are.

I think with good reason that fear exists right? It's not like there are a bunch of Midwest schools who are just thriving and competing for the top of the CFB elite. Knocking on the CFB playoff every season - ND and TOSU are the only 2 that immedaitely come to mind and Iowa is just not on the same footing. Look around you, ISU, MN, WI, NE, KS, KST Missouri, Northwestern, IL, IN, Purdue..... we're not talking about the who's who of elite teams here and that's what should worry anyone about what's next. I don't know where Iowa sits in the new landscape of CFB, but I am guessing a lot closer to the rest of the Midwest vs being ND or TOSU.