Hawks in the NCAA Tournament:

DunderMifflinHk

DunderMifflinHk

Well-Known Member
Now I'm not predicting that Iowa is going to make it to the NCAA tournament but it's fun to see what they would need to get to, to make it possible. Here are some interesting facts:

  • Lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette ('11), #63 NC St ('05), #63 Stanford ('07).
  • Fewest wins to get an ALB: 17 (Alabama - '06).
  • Most losses to get an ALB: 14 (Arizona - 2008, five teams in '11).
  • Worst record to get an ALB: 18-14 .563 (Arizona - '08, Michigan St - '11)

Iowa is now at 11-8 (3-3) with an RPI of 106. Iowa would need to get their RPI to drop about 50 spots. I think we would need to upset Maryland tomorrow and Indiana on Feb 21st.

  • Thurs., Jan. 19 – vs. Maryland - W
  • Jan. 25 – at Illinois - L
  • Jan. 28 – vs. Ohio State - W
  • Jan. 31 – at Rutgers - W
  • Feb. 5 – vs. Nebraska - W
  • Feb. 8 – at Minnesota - L
  • Feb. 11 – at Michigan State - L
  • Feb. 18 – vs. Illinois - W
  • Feb. 21 – vs. Indiana - W
  • Feb. 25 – at Maryland - L
  • March 2 – at Wisconsin - L
  • March 5 – vs. Penn State - W
  • Mar. 8-12 – Big Ten Tournament - Possibly 4 more games
This puts us at 18-13 (10-8) going into the Big Ten Tournament. I'm not sure if this would put us on the bubble or not. What are your thoughts? Like I said, I don't think this outcome is very likely but it's always fun to speculate!
 
Holy balls, I had to chew all my food and swallow it when I was reading this, so I didn't choke.....I love the optimism, but.......
 
NEIChawk said:
Holy balls, I had to chew all my food and swallow it when I was reading this, so I didn't choke.....I love the optimism, but.......
Click to expand...
Yeah, it's not happening outside of a Luke Recker type run in the Big 10 tournament,
 
I had some small hope of a bubble birth, but then northwestern happened.

They have ZERO road wins, one neutral court win against a bad UNI team, one quality win (Purdue) and then wins vs Iowa state and Michigan.

That is their entire resume and it is... Bad

Sadly they really could have benefitted from ISU beating Baylor and Kansas. They were in both games but came up short.
 
DunderMifflinHk said:
Now I'm not predicting that Iowa is going to make it to the NCAA tournament but it's fun to see what they would need to get to, to make it possible. Here are some interesting facts:

  • Lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette ('11), #63 NC St ('05), #63 Stanford ('07).
  • Fewest wins to get an ALB: 17 (Alabama - '06).
  • Most losses to get an ALB: 14 (Arizona - 2008, five teams in '11).
  • Worst record to get an ALB: 18-14 .563 (Arizona - '08, Michigan St - '11)
Iowa is now at 11-8 (3-3) with an RPI of 106. Iowa would need to get their RPI to drop about 50 spots. I think we would need to upset Maryland tomorrow and Indiana on Feb 21st.

  • Thurs., Jan. 19 – vs. Maryland - W
  • Jan. 25 – at Illinois - L
  • Jan. 28 – vs. Ohio State - W
  • Jan. 31 – at Rutgers - W
  • Feb. 5 – vs. Nebraska - W
  • Feb. 8 – at Minnesota - L
  • Feb. 11 – at Michigan State - L
  • Feb. 18 – vs. Illinois - W
  • Feb. 21 – vs. Indiana - W
  • Feb. 25 – at Maryland - L
  • March 2 – at Wisconsin - L
  • March 5 – vs. Penn State - W
  • Mar. 8-12 – Big Ten Tournament - Possibly 4 more games
This puts us at 18-13 (10-8) going into the Big Ten Tournament. I'm not sure if this would put us on the bubble or not. What are your thoughts? Like I said, I don't think this outcome is very likely but it's always fun to speculate!
Click to expand...

I plugged your above scenario in and included a win against Nebraska in the first round of the BTT and a loss to UW in the second round. It projected our RPI at 78. Basically we'd have to steal another game along the way most likely or win a couple in the BTT. Here is the link if you want to take a look:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Iowa.html

If we lose to Maryland Thursday night, which I think is pretty likely with the quickness of their guards, I think our NCAA tourney hopes are officially done.
 
mopkins said:
I had some small hope of a bubble birth, but then northwestern happened.

They have ZERO road wins, one neutral court win against a bad UNI team, one quality win (Purdue) and then wins vs Iowa state and Michigan.

That is their entire resume and it is... Bad

Sadly they really could have benefitted from ISU beating Baylor and Kansas. They were in both games but came up short.
Click to expand...

Imo the strength of those three wins are not what is holding Iowa back. There are many projected tourney teams that don't have three better wins than that. I think the losses to Omaha, Memphis, and the sheer amount of losses has more to do with our poor resume'.
 
Our non conference schedule was just too hard to make the NCAA Tournament this year. We needed to schedule like Rutgers did
 
NEIChawk said:
Holy balls, I had to chew all my food and swallow it when I was reading this, so I didn't choke.....I love the optimism, but.......
Click to expand...


Agree just not seeing it. Teams a complete train wreck when it leave Carver and they won't run the table with home victories. I honestly would take .500 and I don't think that is going to be an easy task
 
Hawk5656 said:
Our non conference schedule was just too hard to make the NCAA Tournament this year. We needed to schedule like Rutgers did
Click to expand...

Smartest thing you've said on here and you're not even serious. A schedule where have play a bunch of good teams but still have a bad SOS because of too many terrible teams is the worst schedule you can have.
 
Break it down.
Maryland....not realistic with guard play
@ IL - Just pounded M at home. Experienced guard play.
OSU - without Diopp a chance. Great guard play by OSU...toss up.
@ Rutgers ---should be a win. Then again shouldn't lose big to NW.
Nebby - Toss up
@MN loss
@MSU - loss
Illinois - Win
IU - toss up
@ Maryland - NO way.
@ Wisky - NO
PSU - Win

3 wins w/ some confidence.
5 sure losses
2 toss ups

Give Iowa the tossups.... that's 8-10. Gonna take 3 wins in the tourney, no upset losses or sub 1 or 2 wins for upsets. Most likely at IL and Wisky.

Folks, ain't happening as it stands now.
 
PCHawk said:
Smartest thing you've said on here and you're not even serious. A schedule where have play a bunch of good teams but still have a bad SOS because of too many terrible teams is the worst schedule you can have.
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If we played a bunch of 100-200 RPI teams we probably still would have lost a few of those too. We couldn't even beat Omaha at home or Memphis on a neutral court.
 
Hawk5656 said:
If we played a bunch of 100-200 RPI teams we probably still would have lost a few of those too. We couldn't even beat Omaha at home or Memphis on a neutral court.
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We would have less losses with a much better SOS number. That's why SOS is so stupid. It has way more to do with how terrible your opponents are than how many good teams you play.
 
HawkGold said:
Break it down.
Maryland....not realistic with guard play
@ IL - Just pounded M at home. Experienced guard play.
OSU - without Diopp a chance. Great guard play by OSU...toss up.
@ Rutgers ---should be a win. Then again shouldn't lose big to NW.
Nebby - Toss up
@MN loss
@MSU - loss
Illinois - Win
IU - toss up
@ Maryland - NO way.
@ Wisky - NO
PSU - Win

3 wins w/ some confidence.
5 sure losses
2 toss ups

Give Iowa the tossups.... that's 8-10. Gonna take 3 wins in the tourney, no upset losses or sub 1 or 2 wins for upsets. Most likely at IL and Wisky.

Folks, ain't happening as it stands now.
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The op made it clear that this wasn't a thread about our chances of making it. It is about what it would take to make it. I say it takes winning all our home games, any 2 road games, and 2 in the Big 10 tourney. The odds of that happening are slightly above zero. That said, if we could somehow play like we did against Purdue the rest of the year (again, not happening) we would end up with a 14-4 or 13/5 record in conference and be locks. There is still time, but not much.
 
PCHawk said:
We would have less losses with a much better SOS number. That's why SOS is so stupid. It has way more to do with how terrible your opponents are than how many good teams you play.
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If you play average teams instead of terrible teams you are more likely to lose and this group is likely to lose to about anyone
 
DJL said:
Yeah, it's not happening outside of a Luke Recker type run in the Big 10 tournament,
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That's pretty much what it comes down to and there's no way they win the BTT, so.... let's hope they can win enough to get in the NIT.
 
Hawk5656 said:
If you play average teams instead of terrible teams you are more likely to lose and this group is likely to lose to about anyone
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Yes but if you play average teams instead of good ones, you're more than likely to win. The question is, would you still lose 5 games if you played 13 teams in the 125 to 250 range. You would have a way better strength of schedule and almost certainly have less than 5 losses. You would improve on both counts. Less wins and better SOS. All by manipulating a flawed system.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
Imo the strength of those three wins are not what is holding Iowa back. There are many projected tourney teams that don't have three better wins than that. I think the losses to Omaha, Memphis, and the sheer amount of losses has more to do with our poor resume'.
Click to expand...

Maybe but from what the committee has said in the past is that they place a large emphasis on road and neutral court wins since the NCAA tournament is all neutral courts.

It's also alarming that Iowa doesn't have a true road win yet this season
 
PCHawk said:
Yes but if you play average teams instead of good ones, you're more than likely to win. The question is, would you still lose 5 games if you played 13 teams in the 125 to 250 range. You would have a way better strength of schedule and almost certainly have less than 5 losses. You would improve on both counts. Less wins and better SOS. All by manipulating a flawed system.
Click to expand...

I bet if we all scheduled teams from the 100-200 range we'd have 5 non conference losses too.
 
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