I am going to have to recreate the thing over the summer. I have had enough people ask for the content after I first did it, but I used an old computer that I fried. I also think I will use Rivals instead of Scout as my data base. Basically, I just went through every major conference new hire since 2000 who had at least completed his third November signing period and counted the number of 1 star, 2, star, 3 star, 4 star, and 5 star recruits.
Basically, coaches that didn't experience a successful turn in recruiting by the November class of after their first full year were not able to eventually have success. I covered new major conference hires since 2002 and only used coaches who had completed their third fall of recruiting.
The only two guys that didn't do it by year two, but were able to do it by year three were Horn from SC and Montgomery from Cal. No one else ever did. However, as I said in other places, I wasn't looking at victories, only an upturn in recruiting. I will need to add this for things like player development as a factor. Also, I wasn't looking for world beater classes. Really, just solid classes of three star and above players without significant left open scholarships.
The biggest thing that stood out was how REALLY difficult it was to turn around a program unless the coach was a superstar name, or it was a legendary program. Some guys had the magic to do it, but most couldn't, including Lick and Mac.
So, people see my comments as a knock on Fran, but it did the work before his was hired and would say the same as anyone.
