Honestly, this is how I see it too. I don't want to sound like I'm wishing ill on the kid because I really do think everyone just sort of needs to move on, but I think he is like an insurance policy for UK. He's like an NBA reserve kind of target for them to have - i.e. nice to bring off the bench in a well defined (limited) role for a fixed number of minutes.
Maybe he'll shock us and be a 30+ minute productive contributor for them, but I don't see it happening. UK is essentially a G-League team.
Again, all kind of disappointing as an Iowa fan because I really think CJ was setup to be a key player for us for the coming couple seasons. Playing maximum minutes and easily getting into the ~14 ppg kind of production range. But, on the other hand, I'm sure Calipari is telling him anything and everything he wants to hear, so I'm sure he thinks he's going to get to be That Guy at his dream school.
To put it into terms I can relate to, I think this would be like growing up a big Hawk fan in Cedar Rapids, watching their games, hero worshipping the players, etc and being a solid HS prospect that couldn't get a Big Ten offer and landed at UNI. You go on to be a solid, promising player MVC for a couple years but you've got a lot of family and connections down in Hawkeyeland and you're hearing their might be a spot for you. I could imagine your heart being set a little aflutter by the prospect...your bright future at UNI, everything the school has done to give you a chance and support you and all that could very quickly start to sound like so much blah blah blah when you lay in bed at night picturing your name being said over the PA at Carver.