A little appreciation for Gatens

HawkeyeMike23 said:
Who was shocked Lucas wasn't drafted? He was never considered a big time NBA prospect. Also, A/T ratio is really not that good of a stat to measure pg play by. Take Taylor for example, his A/T ratio is mostly due to the offense he plays in, not his skills. Just because Jose Calderon leads the NBA in A/T ratio does that make him an above average pg? Of course not.

Also Taylor isn't going to do anything in the NBA either so don't be shocked when he doesn't make an NBA team despite his efficient numbers.
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Actually Chris Paul led the league in A/T but let's not let facts get in the way of a good argument.

BTW, Calderon is a very legit passer. He had almost 9 assists per game in 30 minutes, so I guess by your logic totals must not matter either?

The top five PG's for A/T:
Paul
Calderon
Kidd
Rondo
Nash


Nice cherry picking of stats though. Fail
 
Cartwright is a gutty, solid player on a bad team. I think we can all agree on that.

I'll certainly acknowledge the point that he had far more opportunities to gather assists (not that significant of a stat anyway) by playing on a bad team. However, the counter point is that regardless of the opportunity, gathering assists on the Iowa basketball team was a rather difficult task.

The basketball didn't exactly score itself for the 2010/2011 Iowa Hawkeyes. I'm not sure how much the athletic department got for the old, dented rims on craig's list, but it's safe to say they were likely replaced for the upcoming 2011/2012 campaign.
 
storminspank said:
Guards that had more playing time than Cartwright -

Battle
Thompson
Taylor
Deibler
Hoffarbor
Morris
Moore
Lucas
McCamey

........ and the list goes on.

So if these guards had more Playing Time (a reason you give), why didn't they have more assists?
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First of all, half that list is comprised of score first point guards (Hoffarber, Taylor, Lucas, McCamey, Battle). My point was that if you look to pass a lot you may get a lot more assists, but you risk more turnovers. This is not unlike a volume shooter jacking up 20 shots a game to score 20 points. Would you say that scoring performance benefitted the team, or would you actually look into the data a say, hey he shouldn't have taken all of those dumb shots that cost us the game?
 
smoot27 said:
Please cite where I admitted this. I said last season Cartwright was one of the least efficient PG's in the league, which he was. All I said was it's hard to rank the point guards this upcoming season because there are so many new ones in the league. You can't evaluate rookies without significant time on the court and stats to justify it.

Should we say that Vandenberg can't be a top 5 Big Ten qb because he hasn't had much time to start yet? I'm sure you wouldn't make that argument, so it's senseless to say the other teams can't plug in pg's that will be better than Cartwright.

All I've heard on the basketball board so far is how Basabe is a top Big 10 PF, Cartwright is a top Big Ten PG, and Gatens is an above average wing.

Why don't one of you use your constant subjective analysis to explain how we finished 2nd to last in the conference with these good players?

You guys are starting to act like Clown fans praising mediocrity like this.
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The analysts on The Big Ten Network said Basabe will be one of the better players in the league next year. While I think that's a bit overblown, it's their job to give their expert advice. The same people said Cartwright is one of the better PGs in the league.

I'm not saying either.

All I am saying is Cartwright is a very good PG, that will be on the All-Big Ten team again this year.

And that Gatens is better than Babb.
 
smoot27 said:
First of all, half that list is comprised of score first point guards (Hoffarber, Taylor, Lucas, McCamey, Battle). My point was that if you look to pass a lot you may get a lot more assists, but you risk more turnovers. This is not unlike a volume shooter jacking up 20 shots a game to score 20 points. Would you say that scoring performance benefitted the team, or would you actually look into the data a say, hey he shouldn't have taken all of those dumb shots that cost us the game?
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Who's to say Bryce Cartwright isn't a score first type of player? He averaged double digits scoring on the year for Iowa.

McCamey is a "score first" player? Weird, considering before Cartwright came into the league he lead the Big Ten in assists. Last year, Battle was 3rd in the Big Ten in assists.

Cartwright leading the league in assists on an offensively-enemic Iowa team (7 assists per game in conf), while still avging double digit scoring means he's a pretty decent ball player.

You have to see that.
 
storminspank said:
The analysts on The Big Ten Network said Basabe will be one of the better players in the league next year. While I think that's a bit overblown, it's their job to give their expert advice. The same people said Cartwright is one of the better PGs in the league.

I'm not saying either.

All I am saying is Cartwright is a very good PG, that will be on the All-Big Ten team again this year.

And that Gatens is better than Babb.
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Gatens is comparable to Babb (average wing)

Basabe is a top 4 post player

Cartwright is an average pg

Throw in a couple ok role players and you've got yourself a 13-15 win team.


Compare this to the last good team we had:

Horner, Haluska and Brunner were all at the top 3 at their respected positions. The role players (Hansen, Thomas) were ok but not significantly better than what we have now.
 
smoot27 said:
Gatens is comparable to Babb (average wing)

Basabe is a top 4 post player

Cartwright is an average pg

Throw in a couple ok role players and you've got yourself a 13-15 win team.


Compare this to the last good team we had:

Horner, Haluska and Brunner were all at the top 3 at their respected positions. The role players (Hansen, Thomas) were ok but not significantly better than what we have now.
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Hansen, the Big Ten defensive player of the year, was far better than any center Iowa has right now.
 
storminspank said:
Who's to say Bryce Cartwright isn't a score first type of player? He averaged double digits scoring on the year for Iowa.

McCamey is a "score first" player? Weird, considering before Cartwright came into the league he lead the Big Ten in assists. Last year, Battle was 3rd in the Big Ten in assists.

Cartwright leading the league in assists on an offensively-enemic Iowa team (7 assists per game in conf), while still avging double digit scoring means he's a pretty decent ball player.

You have to see that.
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McCamey might not be as much of a score first guard as the rest on the list , but he did average 15 points per game on good shooting. McCamey also averaged more assists per game than Cartwright and fewer turnovers.

McCamey had 208 assists over the course of the season to 100 TO's

Cartwright had 182 to 102

McCamey can shoot the ball well, something Cartwright can't do at all. He is a well rounded pg. There is no comparison.
 
smoot27 said:
McCamey might not be as much of a score first guard as the rest on the list , but he did average 15 points per game on good shooting. McCamey also averaged more assists per game than Cartwright and fewer turnovers.

McCamey had 208 assists over the course of the season to 100 TO's

Cartwright had 182 to 102

McCamey can shoot the ball well, something Cartwright can't do at all. He is a well rounded pg. There is no comparison.
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McCamey is better than Cartwright.
The point I am making is that you are justifying Bryce's leading the league in assists because all the other guards were score first players, when they aren't anymore than Bryce is.
 
smoot27 said:
Actually Chris Paul led the league in A/T but let's not let facts get in the way of a good argument.

BTW, Calderon is a very legit passer. He had almost 9 assists per game in 30 minutes, so I guess by your logic totals must not matter either?

The top five PG's for A/T:
Paul
Calderon
Kidd
Rondo
Nash


Nice cherry picking of stats though. Fail
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I didn't say I was talking about last year, Jose Calderon led the league in A/T ratio in 08-09, so he's the best pg in the league that year right?

A/T leaders in '08/'09
Calderon
Kidd
Paul
Fisher
Blake

in '09/10
Paul
Arroyo
Calderon
Kidd
Bibby

A/T ratio benefits pgs who don't take chances, guys who basically swing the ball and run their system like Taylor from Wisconsin. Jason Kidd at this stage of his career, Derek Fisher, Steve Blake, Carlos Arroyo, Mike Bibby are all examples of this. Cartwright needs to take chances since no one else on the team can create their own shot. He's not a great pg, so he's gonna have turnovers trying to make things happen.

Also, A/T ratio is considered a pretty worthless stat among people who use advanced basketball metrics. You will notice it's not even listed on basketballreference.com, so that shows what they think of it.
 
storminspank said:
Hansen, the Big Ten defensive player of the year, was far better than any center Iowa has right now.
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I agree, but the overall bench of either team was not all that different. I think the current roster may actually have a deeper bench once you factor in the new freshman. That's up in the air for now.

Hansen was a great shot blocker and Thomas provided athleticism and energy. Henderson was a decent backup pg .

Currently we have Marble, McCabe, May, Brommer.


The 05-06 role players were a little better, but the real difference between 25 wins and 11 had more to do with the big three:

Haluska, Horner and Brunner
vs
Cartwright, Basabe and Gatens

05-06 is significantly better


You don't need a deep roster to win games. You need elite players.

Right now the only one on our team with that potential is Basabe
 
smoot27 said:
I agree, but the overall bench of either team was not all that different. I think the current roster may actually have a deeper bench once you factor in the new freshman. That's up in the air for now.

Hansen was a great shot blocker and Thomas provided athleticism and energy. Henderson was a decent backup pg .

Currently we have Marble, McCabe, May, Brommer.


The 05-06 role players were a little better, but the real difference between 25 wins and 11 had more to do with the big three:

Haluska, Horner and Brunner
vs
Cartwright, Basabe and Gatens

05-06 is significantly better


You don't need a deep roster to win games. You need elite players.

Right now the only one on our team with that potential is Basabe
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Interesting take, I agree w/ much of it.

I still stick with my prediction from a year and a half ago that Marble will be the best senior in last year's class. Basabe might have the best career, but I think Devyn turns out to be the best overall player after his time at Iowa.
 
HawkeyeMike23 said:
I didn't say I was talking about last year, Jose Calderon led the league in A/T ratio in 08-09, so he's the best pg in the league that year right?

A/T leaders in '08/'09
Calderon
Kidd
Paul
Fisher
Blake

in '09/10
Paul
Arroyo
Calderon
Kidd
Bibby

A/T ratio benefits pgs who don't take chances, guys who basically swing the ball and run their system like Taylor from Wisconsin. Jason Kidd at this stage of his career, Derek Fisher, Steve Blake, Carlos Arroyo, Mike Bibby are all examples of this. Cartwright needs to take chances since no one else on the team can create their own shot. He's not a great pg, so he's gonna have turnovers trying to make things happen.

Also, A/T ratio is considered a pretty worthless stat among people who use advanced basketball metrics. You will notice it's not even listed on basketballreference.com, so that shows what they think of it.
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True, although basketball metrics have never been as good at measuring producitivity as baseball.

The second part about not taking chances has some merit, but it's not a complete understanding. For example, you can go too far to one argument (the one I'm using) and say a guy who comes off the bench and goes 2 for 4 shooting is better than a guy who goes 5/12 shooting because his fg % is better.

On the other hand, a guy who shoots 6/12 would probably provide more benefit than a guy who goes 8/20.
 
Ok, since I hate when people bash stats and then fail to provide any actual factual evidence to suggest why they are a poor measure for something I feel like I should present an alternative, and better, measuring of a pg's efficiency than A/T ratio.

And that stat would be ARate/TORate differential. Sounds similiar to A/T but it's much better. ARate is the player's assists divided by made field goals while he is on the floor. TO Rate as you would think is the percentage of personal possesions used on turnovers.

Looking at the percantage difference between the B10 starting pg's ARate and TORate, the point guards rank as follows.

Morris 25.8%
Taylor 21.9%
Cartwright 16.0%
McCamey 15.1%
Thompson 10.5%
Lucas 6.6 %
Jackson 6.5%
Frazier 4.7%
Hulls 0.6%
Craft -0.1%

As you would expect the elite pgs of the league are still at the top of the list. This is a much better tempo free stat than the outdated A/T ratio.
 
HawkeyeMike23 said:
Ok, since I hate when people bash stats and then fail to provide any actual factual evidence to suggest why they are a poor measure for something I feel like I should present an alternative, and better, measuring of a pg's efficiency than A/T ratio.

And that stat would be ARate/TORate differential. Sounds similiar to A/T but it's much better. ARate is the player's assists divided by made field goals while he is on the floor. TO Rate as you would think is the percentage of personal possesions used on turnovers.

Looking at the percantage difference between the B10 starting pg's ARate and TORate, the point guards rank as follows.

Morris 25.8%
Taylor 21.9%
Cartwright 16.0%
McCamey 15.1%
Thompson 10.5%
Lucas 6.6 %
Jackson 6.5%
Frazier 4.7%
Hulls 0.6%
Craft -0.1%

As you would expect the elite pgs of the league are still at the top of the list. This is a much better tempo free stat than the outdated A/T ratio.
Click to expand...


Rank the Big Ten PG's last season by PER. That should give us a better idea where they fall.
 
HawkeyeMike23 said:
Ok, since I hate when people bash stats and then fail to provide any actual factual evidence to suggest why they are a poor measure for something I feel like I should present an alternative, and better, measuring of a pg's efficiency than A/T ratio.

And that stat would be ARate/TORate differential. Sounds similiar to A/T but it's much better. ARate is the player's assists divided by made field goals while he is on the floor. TO Rate as you would think is the percentage of personal possesions used on turnovers.

Looking at the percantage difference between the B10 starting pg's ARate and TORate, the point guards rank as follows.

Morris 25.8%
Taylor 21.9%
Cartwright 16.0%
McCamey 15.1%
Thompson 10.5%
Lucas 6.6 %
Jackson 6.5%
Frazier 4.7%
Hulls 0.6%
Craft -0.1%

As you would expect the elite pgs of the league are still at the top of the list. This is a much better tempo free stat than the outdated A/T ratio.
Click to expand...



Just curious Mike, why do you subtract the % differences between ARate and TO Rate? Wouldn't you divide?


For example:

Player A) 80% ARate and 40% TO Rate = 40% using your math

Player B) 20% ARate and 1% TO Rate = 19%

Is that correct?

I thought it would be dividing the assist rate by the TO Rate?

Using my math (ARate/TORAte) I get this:

Thompson: 1.74
McCamey: 1.72
Cartwright: 1.67
Craft: 0.99


Is that not correct?
 
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