Your Remaining Schedule Predictions

[deanvogs]

KF is a better bowl coach. And frankly, other than one season, Hayden was never even on the cusp of an undefeated regular season. KF has been there twice, 2009 and 2015, i.e., undefeated more than halfway into the season. If you count 2002, that's three seasons, though I don't count it since the loss occurred early in the season.

Hayden was a great coach, and completely obliterated a terrible 20-year trend in Iowa football history. But the mythology from some people is, at best, laughable. Worse, most probably never saw a Hayden-coached game on TV, let alone live.

In a nutshell: Hayden recruited better, KF developed players better. You can count, on one hand, the number of recruiting "busts" for Hayden. On the other, it would take both hands and both feet to count the number of "who?" recruits KF has turned into college superstars and/or NFL draft picks. But maybe the major difference is that, with Hayden, you often never knew what the hell was coming next, whereas with KF you rarely fail to predict what might be coming next.

I think the great thing is Iowa has had pretty good coaching for the last 40 years. You see all the turnover and tumult other schools face, and Iowa has had none of that.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

I think the great thing is Iowa has had pretty good coaching for the last 40 years. You see all the turnover and tumult other schools face, and Iowa has had none of that.

And I would submit that is why you have rarely seen a "shit" year during the two respective tenures.

 

[Northside Hawk]

My theory is that, during those mid-career "down" years, both coaches were in demand/pulled from various directions. Fundraising on the heels of renewed donor enthusiasm, outside forces that become more demanding of time such as TV/radio/books/authors, more personal appearances & ribbon cuttings, and other stuff within U of I that isn't strictly football-related but demands the coach's time (new facilities, hospital wings, statewide campaigns requiring a "face"/"voice"). That probably isn't atypical in the life of a major-college coach who stays at one school for 20+ years, except at places where the football or basketball coach is the de facto head of the school (think Coach K, Saban, whoever is coaching at Oklahoma or Texas).

That led to Bobby Knights famous down season in 1985. He had become a huge name around the state of Indiana for public speaking, fund raising and the like. He had a huge commitment with coaching the 1984 Olympic team. He was slacking off on both coaching and recruiting and it all culminated in the 1985 chair throwing incident.

 

[hawkeyes87]

Their careers are remarkably similar. Even the trajectories of their career are extremely similar.

When you map it all out like that, it really looks like Hawkeye football is in some kind of 20 year "Groundhog Day"!

Or, at least it's an idea I'm gonna embrace as we approach the BF era...

 

[westender]

When you map it all out like that, it really looks like Hawkeye football is in some kind of 20 year "Groundhog Day"!

Or, at least it's an idea I'm gonna embrace as we approach the BF era...

Its like the Clintons and Bushes in politics.

 

[hawkeyes87]

When Fry came to Iowa he had built in cupcakes each and every year on the schedule...You didn't have Penn St., Nebraska, a good Wisconsin a good Northwestern that were games on the schedule nearly every year.

A couple notes on this:

First, HF's cupcakes.
I'm not arguing the average wins over the timeframes you list, or even the idea that those teams were generally weak in those periods. But, on a year-to-year basis there were strong teams in that mix. HF played a couple top-10 Illinois teams, and by my count 7 other top-25 games from that mix.

And, KF's stronger teams.
HF played PSU a couple times in the non-con, and then 4 times after they joined. So it's not like he never played them.

Nebraska? I assume this is a joke. They've missed the deanvogs 8-wins means-good-team bar 3 of the last 4 years. HF played them 4 straight years when they were #7 or better. I'd say Nebraska is at best a slight KF edge, if not a push between the two ( sidebar- another HF / KF similarity- both played a top-10 Neb in the non-con in their first 2 years ).

And, NW has hit that 8 win mark 7 times in KF's 20 years. That's not good "nearly every year".

 

[kicker22]

"

It is one thing I have noticed, and it plays into a difference in philosophy. I remember HF running up the score, getting criticized by media for playing his starters late, or even criticism where Chuck Long continued to pass in a lop sided win. I mean, there was a sense of going for blood years ago. The difference I think is that KF doesn't have the same philosophy, like maybe wanting to appear to be taking a "high road" so to speak.

It doesn't make a difference in the long run, if the media wants to criticize, they will. In our 12-0 start, it was all Fine-bomb could do to make sure America knew we were a shitty team after all.

I am all for sportsmanship, don't get me wrong. But maybe, once in a while, when a team is struggling with confidence, let them beat the crap out of another team just to get an edge.

I agree. While I'm all about sportsmanship, I'm a firm believer that if a team doesn't want to get scored on, or have the score ran up on them, its up to them to stop it. I have no problems giving reps to second teamers, but feel a coach shouldn't take his foot off the gas. Give the 2nd and 3rd string equal opportunity to run the score up, because at the end of the day they need those meaningful reps. It's shouldn't be team X's responsibility to keep themselves out of the end zone.

 

[uihawk82]

I agree. While I'm all about sportsmanship, I'm a firm believer that if a team doesn't want to get scored on, or have the score ran up on them, its up to them to stop it. I have no problems giving reps to second teamers, but feel a coach shouldn't take his foot off the gas. Give the 2nd and 3rd string equal opportunity to run the score up, because at the end of the day they need those meaningful reps. It's shouldn't be team X's responsibility to keep themselves out of the end zone.

How many times can I hit the like button on this way of thinking?

 

[uihawk82]

You could also add that injury-riddled years contributed to some of those "down" seasons, as well. Through the complete Fry/Ferentz Era, it's pretty easy to see one overriding fact: Iowa and similar programs simply can't build the depth the way "blue-blood" programs can. Smaller enrollment, smaller population base, etc.

IIRC, a huge injury in Fry's last season was Jared Devries being lame much of the year and not playing some also. He was a beast when healthy from when he first saw playing time. Not sure if that team had some other big injuries

 

[deanvogs]

A couple notes on this:

First, HF's cupcakes.
I'm not arguing the average wins over the timeframes you list, or even the idea that those teams were generally weak in those periods. But, on a year-to-year basis there were strong teams in that mix. HF played a couple top-10 Illinois teams, and by my count 7 other top-25 games from that mix.

And, KF's stronger teams.
HF played PSU a couple times in the non-con, and then 4 times after they joined. So it's not like he never played them.

Nebraska? I assume this is a joke. They've missed the deanvogs 8-wins means-good-team bar 3 of the last 4 years. HF played them 4 straight years when they were #7 or better. I'd say Nebraska is at best a slight KF edge, if not a push between the two ( sidebar- another HF / KF similarity- both played a top-10 Neb in the non-con in their first 2 years ).

And, NW has hit that 8 win mark 7 times in KF's 20 years. That's not good "nearly every year".

Fry was 2-4 vs Penn St.

Nebraska has won 9 or more games in 5 of the 8 years Iowa has had to play them in the B1G.

Illinois had 3 years they ended ranked during Fry's tenure. They have finished ranked 3 times while Kirk has been there too, does that mean you think they are good now?

Northwestern was historically bad when Fry was here (60 wins over 20 years). During Kirk's time Northwestern has 133 wins.

The fact of the matter is in the B1G Fry only faced 2 teams that had an overall .500 record during the time frame he was at Iowa. Everyone else was an under .500 program. Wisconsin (110-116), Illinois (107-115), MSU (108-118), Indiana (100-124), Purdue (96-125), Minnesota (82-138), and Northwestern (60-161). Plus ISU was (73-140).

Over Kirk's time ('99-'18) the following B1G teams are at or above .500 overall (OSU, Wisconsin, MSU, Michigan, Penn St., Minnesota, Northwestern, Maryland, and Nebraska). So Fry was in a conference that 2 out of 9 (and for 5 years 3 teams that were .500 or better when Penn St. joined). Kirk has 9 out of 13 conference opponents that are .500 or better opponents.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

4-2 or 3-3. Wiscy will destroy us, Minne a likely L, Hard to see losing to NWestern as they have no O...but KFz's track record says it all. Possibly Nebraska (they'll have nothing to play for but beating IOWA by Nov 29. KFz has lost to worse ISU teams)

8-4...7-5 if our offense continues to flounder

6-6 should be the end of the Polasek/BFz experiement. Put BFz back on O line, dump Polasek and let KOK call the plays.

 

[Fryowa]

4-2 or 3-3. Wiscy will destroy us, Minne a likely L, Hard to see losing to NWestern as they have no O...but KFz's track record says it all. Possibly Nebraska (they'll have nothing to play for but beating IOWA by Nov 29. KFz has lost to worse ISU teams)

8-4...7-5 if our offense continues to flounder

6-6 should be the end of the Polasek/BFz experiement. Put BFz back on O line, dump Polasek and let KOK call the plays.

I like it, but a demotion won't play into Kirk's succession narrative.

Polasek needs to go regardless.

 

[hawkeyes87]

Over Kirk's time ('99-'18) the following B1G teams are at or above .500 overall (OSU, Wisconsin, MSU, Michigan, Penn St., Minnesota, Northwestern, Maryland, and Nebraska).

Maryland, seriously?

Their first year in the B1G was 2014. They went 7-6, 4-4 in the conference. That was their last winning record.

That's really made it tough on KF, hasn't it? The Hawks have played them a whopping 3 times.

And, you listed 3 teams in HF's "under .500" group that were 5 games or less under that mark, so it's pretty arbitrary over 100+ games to say those teams were weak but .500 or better teams were good.

 

[deanvogs]

Maryland, seriously?

Their first year in the B1G was 2014. They went 7-6, 4-4 in the conference. That was their last winning record.

That's really made it tough on KF, hasn't it? The Hawks have played them a whopping 3 times.

And, you listed 3 teams in HF's "under .500" group that were 5 games or less under that mark, so it's pretty arbitrary over 100+ games to say those teams were weak but .500 or better teams were good.

Alright, take Maryland off the list. So 8 B1G teams are .500 or better that Kirk has to face.

It is funny that you discount how tough Northwestern has been for Kirk to face, even though they were above .500 but now you wanna say teams that were below .500 "were close enough" to .500 to be considered tough? LOL man, it is really hard to pick what moving target you are going to be using in each debate.

I also noticed that you completely and totally ignored that Kirk has had to play 6 really good opponents in OSU, Michigan, MSU, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Penn St. where Fry faced Michigan and OSU. Kirk has had to play that group of 6 teams 80 times over 20 years going 36-44 (45%) . Fry faced Michigan and OSU 32 times over 20 years going 7-23-2 (22%). Kirk has had to play almost 50 games vs vastly superior teams than Fry ever faced.

 

[hawkeyes87]

It is funny that you discount how tough Northwestern has been for Kirk to face, even though they were above .500 but now you wanna say teams that were below .500 "were close enough" to .500 to be considered tough?

What I said was they weren't good "nearly every year", the way you described them. So what was NW's record over that span? I'm guessing not much over .500.

Keep in mind, the extra game these days means 1 more non-con patsy to pad the records, so yeah getting to .500 overall is easier these days.

I'm curious- where do you get all your stats? Do you have a site you can plug in "NW results 1999-2018", or are you doing the numbers yourself?

Kirk has had to play 6 really good opponents in OSU, Michigan, MSU, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Penn St. where Fry faced Michigan and OSU. Kirk has had to play that group of 6 teams 80 times over 20 years going 36-44 (45%) . Fry faced Michigan and OSU 32 times over 20 years going 7-23-2 (22%). .

Yes, that's a shitty record for HF against those 2. No doubt.

But here's the thing about the KF group / numbers. "6 really good opponents"? 6 opponents over 20 years means there were a lot of games where those opponents weren't anywhere close to great. So " Kirk has had to play almost 50 games vs vastly superior teams than Fry ever faced" is wrong.

Nebby was 4-8 the last 2 years. That's really good / vastly superior team?

MSU has been all over the place since KF took over. 7 losing seasons, 4 more w/ 7 W's.

Michigan? In HF's 20 years, Michigan had 1 season w/ less than 8 W's. 6-6 in '84. (yeah, still beat HF). In KF's 20? 6 times.

PSU? Here are some of PSU's win totals since '99: 5,5,3,4,7,7,7,7. So quite a few years of not really good / vastly superior teams.

OSU & Wisconsin have been the only teams of your 6 who were consistently good.

Anyway, all these numbers are giving me a headache.

In the end, I'm not saying HF had it tougher. But your comparison method is misleading.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

dean and hawkeyes87, stop, already. Both great coaches for Iowa, and both broke various "jinxes". JHF broke the O$U/Michigan stranglehold on the Rose Bowl, ended a long losing streak to Purdue, and beat a top-flight Nebraska to set things in motion for an amazing season. KF put together a string of seasons nobody figured to happen, and some great bowl victories.

They each difficult situations they had to face for varieties of reasons. The one common factor that overrides all of it: Iowa has a small population base yet has two p5 programs in the state. Frankly, what Iowa and ISU are doing, combined, for the last several seasons is actually pretty remarkable.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

IIRC, a huge injury in Fry's last season was Jared Devries being lame much of the year and not playing some also. He was a beast when healthy from when he first saw playing time. Not sure if that team had some other big injuries

Not to mention JHF was dealing with a rather serous health issue of his own.

 

[deanvogs]

What I said was they weren't good "nearly every year", the way you described them. So what was NW's record over that span? I'm guessing not much over .500.

Keep in mind, the extra game these days means 1 more non-con patsy to pad the records, so yeah getting to .500 overall is easier these days.

I'm curious- where do you get all your stats? Do you have a site you can plug in "NW results 1999-2018", or are you doing the numbers yourself?



Yes, that's a shitty record for HF against those 2. No doubt.

But here's the thing about the KF group / numbers. "6 really good opponents"? 6 opponents over 20 years means there were a lot of games where those opponents weren't anywhere close to great. So " Kirk has had to play almost 50 games vs vastly superior teams than Fry ever faced" is wrong.

Nebby was 4-8 the last 2 years. That's really good / vastly superior team?

MSU has been all over the place since KF took over. 7 losing seasons, 4 more w/ 7 W's.

Michigan? In HF's 20 years, Michigan had 1 season w/ less than 8 W's. 6-6 in '84. (yeah, still beat HF). In KF's 20? 6 times.

PSU? Here are some of PSU's win totals since '99: 5,5,3,4,7,7,7,7. So quite a few years of not really good / vastly superior teams.

OSU & Wisconsin have been the only teams of your 6 who were consistently good.

Anyway, all these numbers are giving me a headache.

In the end, I'm not saying HF had it tougher. But your comparison method is misleading.

You just parse the stats that don't support what you want the end result to be. If a team has a +60% winning % over 20 years it only makes sense they will have more good years than a team that has a 45% winning % over 20 years. The math tells us the 45% winning team is gonna have lots of sub .500 seasons, way more than the +60% winning teams

Since you take 8 years of Penn St. results, lets look at what Fry faces. Illinois had years of 2, 3, 6, 4, 3, 6, 6, 5, 5, 2, 0 and 3 wins during Fry's 20 years. That is 12 out of 20 years they were .500 or below (which only makes sense their overall record tells us this will be the case), You thought since they were "close to .500" that they were a quality test for Fry. How about Wisconsin, they had years of 4, 4, 5, 3, 3, 1, 2, 1, 5, 5, and 4 wins. That is 11 of 20 years they were simply awful. The thing is Illinois and Wisconsin were the best tier below Michigan and OSU. MSU had years of 5, 3, 5, 2, 4, 6, 6, 6, 3, 5, 6, 5, 6, 6, & 6.

Those were the "next" best teams after OSU and Michigan. Kirk has had it much more challenging than that. KF has to deal with Michigan, OSU, MSU, Wisconsin, Penn St. and Nebraska all being above .600 winning teams.

My point is if you can find 7 wins seasons for teams like Penn st. with good winning % over 20 years, I am going to be able to find AWFUL years for teams that are under .500 over a 20 year period.

 

[deanvogs]

dean and hawkeyes87, stop, already. Both great coaches for Iowa, and both broke various "jinxes". JHF broke the O$U/Michigan stranglehold on the Rose Bowl, ended a long losing streak to Purdue, and beat a top-flight Nebraska to set things in motion for an amazing season. KF put together a string of seasons nobody figured to happen, and some great bowl victories.

They each difficult situations they had to face for varieties of reasons. The one common factor that overrides all of it: Iowa has a small population base yet has two p5 programs in the state. Frankly, what Iowa and ISU are doing, combined, for the last several seasons is actually pretty remarkable.

I have said several times I think Fry was a good coach, and that Iowa has had 40 years of good coaching. I just find it funny some think Fry was the greatest thing, and Ferentz doesn't even know how to coach.

 

[iloveyoularrystation]

We win all of them except wiscy. Speaking of which, i gotta stop posting from enemy territory. Live in omaha, in green bay today. Stupid wiscy.