SCHawkeye2
Well-Known Member
3-3 remainder of season
7-5 overall
4-5 B10
7-5 overall
4-5 B10
Your Remaining Schedule Predictions
- Thread starter EstronHawkKing
- Start date
hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
Collecting, comparing "coaches caches" can cause convincing conclusions?
Can concur!
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
Did you realize that Hayden was 18-44-1 vs top 25 opponents over his 20 year span?
Did you realize that Kirk Ferentz is 24-45 vs top 25 opponents (thru '18) over a 20 year span?
If you take away the first 2 rebuilding years for both:
Fry was 18-37-1 (32% vs top 25 teams)
Ferentz is 23-36 (39% vs top 25 teams)
I know you don't care about actual numbers, you have already made up your mind.
Well actual numbers, stats, can also be bent or used out of context.
1. Kirk has been playing, I would say, a slightly less juggernaut Michigan team over the years than Hayden did. Again, Mich hasnt even always been ranked when Kirk plays them.
2. Hayden played tougher, ranked teams out of conference like U Miami, Colorado a couple of times and lost both when Colorado was tough, McCartney iirc team.
3. I think one would have to also look at these numbers in context and one would discover that 32% vs 39% is very close and within some sort of statistical margin of error to end up being relatively the same outcome for each coach.
4. I think in the landscape of college bowl game conference tie ins Kirk has had the more uphill battle playing up in competition against a number of SEC and other teams ranked ahead of them. And Kirk has held his own in bowl games with multiple upset wins.
I think Kirk has always been a really good coach for Iowa and my only criticism is the somewhat not putting the hammer to teams the hawks should handle by playing 'down' to the competition, taking some shots down the field, etc etc
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
I am certainly not trying to downplay what Fry did at Iowa. It has always just boggled my mind that some could LOVE Fry, but HATE Ferentz. I mean statistically for a 20 year run you couldn’t ask for closer results over a 20 year span. Sure Fry finished in the top 25 more often, but Kirk has more top 10 finishes. Some differences, lots of similarities really.
hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
Right.
Your numbers don't apply to the thread topic, or my post (well, loosely related to my post, I guess).
But you found some more numbers, so congrats.
What is it I've made up my mind about, exactly? I pointed out those couple seasons were impressive to me because there were several quality wins. Your numbers don't give any reason for me to think otherwise.
Did you know HF was actually 15-16-1 against the top-25 thru '91 (not counting those first 2 years)?
Went to shit in those games after that, obviously.
chucktownhawk
Well-Known Member
I know, it's going to be crazy......I suppose i can wait, but I love to see people completely go ape shit and I'm one of those people
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
I like numbers, but I'm beginning to understand why you don't like them, they don't fit your narratives, and they are hard to explain away.
Did you know that KF was 17-16 thru '10 (not counting those first 2 years)? Yep then the shit run of '11-'14 happened where KF went 1-9 vs top 25 teams. After '14 Kirk is 5-11
hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
No, I didn't know that.
But, I guess it's kinda interesting that they both followed the same pattern (HF lost 12 straight after '91, similar to KF's 1-9)
As the "numbers guy" do you have a theory on that?
Better opponents adjusted to us and we didn't adapt? Different approach to those games as time passed? Luck / karma / voodoo?
HF went downhill in that area shortly after I left the state, but I'm not sure that's related...
Fryowa
Administrator
Purdue - L
NW - W
Wisconsin - L
Minnesota - L
Illinois - W
Nebraska - L
6-6, 3-6, junk bowl. Exactly like I said at the beginning of the year only I predicted a non-con loss.
The Purdue and NW are either/or, we're not going to get both of those. The rest of the games are firm.
NW - W
Wisconsin - L
Minnesota - L
Illinois - W
Nebraska - L
6-6, 3-6, junk bowl. Exactly like I said at the beginning of the year only I predicted a non-con loss.
The Purdue and NW are either/or, we're not going to get both of those. The rest of the games are firm.
Dadman
Well-Known Member
"
It is one thing I have noticed, and it plays into a difference in philosophy. I remember HF running up the score, getting criticized by media for playing his starters late, or even criticism where Chuck Long continued to pass in a lop sided win. I mean, there was a sense of going for blood years ago. The difference I think is that KF doesn't have the same philosophy, like maybe wanting to appear to be taking a "high road" so to speak.
It doesn't make a difference in the long run, if the media wants to criticize, they will. In our 12-0 start, it was all Fine-bomb could do to make sure America knew we were a shitty team after all.
I am all for sportsmanship, don't get me wrong. But maybe, once in a while, when a team is struggling with confidence, let them beat the crap out of another team just to get an edge.
AreWeThereYet
Well-Known Member
I predicted 8-4 way back there. I see no reason to change that at this point.
Purdue - W. Purdue is out of horses, cant run, cant stop anyone and cant exploit our interior OL defense. We get our running game healthy, stop their passing game, and win big.
NW - W. This will be a slugfest, and NW will try to do to our OL what Mich and PSU did, but without the players. Problem for NW is their offense is beyond terrible and they wont do anything against us. We win a low scoring game here.
Very important - BYE. We will need this at this time and not to get healthy but to shore some things up on the OL and in the running game. We get an extra week to focus on Wisconsin and to clean up a lot of things on our execution.
Wisconsin - I think Wisconsin loses big at the shoe, and on top of that they will be exposed. Their secondary is not as good as you think and OSU will punish them down the field, go up early and roll them. On top of that, they will stop Taylor, especially in the first half, and playing mostly cover 2 and 3 defense, Coan will be humbled in a very big way. Wisconsin going in will be a fringe top 5 team, and will go home with their tail between their legs with a bye as well. It will suck for them to have to watch their tape for 2 weeks and hear all the chatter about them being overrated and overhyped. So this game will feature an Iowa team ranked around 20 and a Wisky team ranked about 10, and the winner has the advantage in the West over the other. I think we limit Taylor and he is going to have to grind out his yards against us. I think Coan will be limited, very much like Clifford, and he will have to be creative to move the chains. I think we simplify and shore up our protections, and while we will not be effective running the ball either, we will be able to throw on the edges. I think we throw better than Wisconsin, and by this time we are much more accustomed to adversity and Kirk pulls out the one that he shouldnt. W
Minnesota - W. They are talented on offense, have a some good players on defense, but much like Wisconsin, they will be coming off a demoralizing and exposing loss to PSU the week before to send them back down to earth. Their d line is not ready to take advantage of our weaknesses, and we will be able to protect Stanley as well as run limited but effective. This is another big time game, in Kinnick, and for the West. Minnesota cant win it here but they can lose it. Iowa goes in the drivers seat with a win.
Illinois - W. fun tune up and allow the fans to relax for a week. We roll up some yards, score in bunches and blow them out early.
Nebraska - I doubt Martinez will be 100% healthy here even if he plays. If he doesnt, they have no chance. If he does, they still dont have the horses but will be competitive. We win it here and win the west, only to go to the B1G championship game to lose to OSU.
OSU - CFP
Rose - Wisconsin
Citrus - Iowa
Outback - PSU
Holiday - Michigan
who cares after that
NW - W. This will be a slugfest, and NW will try to do to our OL what Mich and PSU did, but without the players. Problem for NW is their offense is beyond terrible and they wont do anything against us. We win a low scoring game here.
Very important - BYE. We will need this at this time and not to get healthy but to shore some things up on the OL and in the running game. We get an extra week to focus on Wisconsin and to clean up a lot of things on our execution.
Wisconsin - I think Wisconsin loses big at the shoe, and on top of that they will be exposed. Their secondary is not as good as you think and OSU will punish them down the field, go up early and roll them. On top of that, they will stop Taylor, especially in the first half, and playing mostly cover 2 and 3 defense, Coan will be humbled in a very big way. Wisconsin going in will be a fringe top 5 team, and will go home with their tail between their legs with a bye as well. It will suck for them to have to watch their tape for 2 weeks and hear all the chatter about them being overrated and overhyped. So this game will feature an Iowa team ranked around 20 and a Wisky team ranked about 10, and the winner has the advantage in the West over the other. I think we limit Taylor and he is going to have to grind out his yards against us. I think Coan will be limited, very much like Clifford, and he will have to be creative to move the chains. I think we simplify and shore up our protections, and while we will not be effective running the ball either, we will be able to throw on the edges. I think we throw better than Wisconsin, and by this time we are much more accustomed to adversity and Kirk pulls out the one that he shouldnt. W
Minnesota - W. They are talented on offense, have a some good players on defense, but much like Wisconsin, they will be coming off a demoralizing and exposing loss to PSU the week before to send them back down to earth. Their d line is not ready to take advantage of our weaknesses, and we will be able to protect Stanley as well as run limited but effective. This is another big time game, in Kinnick, and for the West. Minnesota cant win it here but they can lose it. Iowa goes in the drivers seat with a win.
Illinois - W. fun tune up and allow the fans to relax for a week. We roll up some yards, score in bunches and blow them out early.
Nebraska - I doubt Martinez will be 100% healthy here even if he plays. If he doesnt, they have no chance. If he does, they still dont have the horses but will be competitive. We win it here and win the west, only to go to the B1G championship game to lose to OSU.
OSU - CFP
Rose - Wisconsin
Citrus - Iowa
Outback - PSU
Holiday - Michigan
who cares after that
Their careers are remarkably similar. Even the trajectories of their career are extremely similar.
-2-3 building period followed by a breakthrough season B1G championship (1981,2002)
-A near decade long great run (1981-1991 & 2002-2010)
-Each great run had a season that should have been but injuries derailed things (1984 & 2010) KF actually had similar season in 2003 that was derailed by injuries to Lewis, Hinkel, Brown, Sanders, Hodges & Soloman having to go to JC but the team was so f'ing tough they still won 10 games
-Each great run had 2 season stretch of disappointment (1988-1989 & 2006-2007)
-After the great runs, a significant drop off of a few seasons (1992-1994 & 2011-2012)
-Resurgent season that renewed hope (1996 & 2015)
-The resurgent season for each was largely an outlier over the last 10 years of each of their careers. Kirk still has time to change this part
The one difference, and I know you and I disagree on this is, IMO the structure of the B1G is easier for Kirk now than what it was for Fry. Due to divisions, over the last 9 seasons Iowa has played OSU twice, Michigan 5 times, and MSU 4 times (regular season). Iowa even inexplicably didn't play Wisconsin in 2011-2012. Interestingly Fry also missed Wisconsin twice in 1993-1994
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
Great post @Xerxes. We do disagree on how tough Fry had it in the B1G. When Fry came to Iowa he had built in cupcakes each and every year on the schedule ISU (Averaged under 3 win per year '79-'98), Northwestern (Averaged 2 wins per year from '79-'94), Wisconsin (Averaged 4 wins per year from '79-'92), Purdue (Averaged 4 wins per year from '81-'96), Minnesota (Averaged 4 wins per year from '79-'98), Indiana (Average 5 Wins per year from '79-'98) Michigan St. (Averaged 5.5 Win per year from '79-'98) Illinois (Averaged 5 wins per year from '79-'98). It wasn't like the B1G was murderer row. You didn't have Penn St., Nebraska, a good Wisconsin a good Northwestern that were games on the schedule nearly every year.
hawkeyebob62
Well-Known Member
KF is a better bowl coach. And frankly, other than one season, Hayden was never even on the cusp of an undefeated regular season. KF has been there twice, 2009 and 2015, i.e., undefeated more than halfway into the season. If you count 2002, that's three seasons, though I don't count it since the loss occurred early in the season.
Hayden was a great coach, and completely obliterated a terrible 20-year trend in Iowa football history. But the mythology from some people is, at best, laughable. Worse, most probably never saw a Hayden-coached game on TV, let alone live.
In a nutshell: Hayden recruited better, KF developed players better. You can count, on one hand, the number of recruiting "busts" for Hayden. On the other, it would take both hands and both feet to count the number of "who?" recruits KF has turned into college superstars and/or NFL draft picks. But maybe the major difference is that, with Hayden, you often never knew what the hell was coming next, whereas with KF you rarely fail to predict what might be coming next.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
You can add to this (excellent) post that the 1988-89 disappointment was soon followed by another from 1992-94 as Hayden had a recruiting drought at the QB position and had to revamp his staff after Snyder and Kirk left and Alvarez pillaged a good deal of the rest. You also had the Hunter Rawlings fallout, which you know the competition was using, an aging coach, and a revamped conference. Thank God for Tim Dwight and Tavian Banks, as well as Sedrick Shaw, for helping usher in one more good era of Fryball.
Dwight and Banks, by the way, were not slam dunks. Dwight could easily have gone to Stanford or Oregon for track and Banks was being recruited by schools for soccer as well.
hawkeyebob62
Well-Known Member
My theory is that, during those mid-career "down" years, both coaches were in demand/pulled from various directions. Fundraising on the heels of renewed donor enthusiasm, outside forces that become more demanding of time such as TV/radio/books/authors, more personal appearances & ribbon cuttings, and other stuff within U of I that isn't strictly football-related but demands the coach's time (new facilities, hospital wings, statewide campaigns requiring a "face"/"voice"). That probably isn't atypical in the life of a major-college coach who stays at one school for 20+ years, except at places where the football or basketball coach is the de facto head of the school (think Coach K, Saban, whoever is coaching at Oklahoma or Texas).
hawkeyebob62
Well-Known Member
You could also add that injury-riddled years contributed to some of those "down" seasons, as well. Through the complete Fry/Ferentz Era, it's pretty easy to see one overriding fact: Iowa and similar programs simply can't build the depth the way "blue-blood" programs can. Smaller enrollment, smaller population base, etc.
