As of now, too many variables. Does JBo play? How long is Pemsl suspended? What other injuries/health issues are on the table?
Best-case? 21 wins + 2 wins in BTT + 2 wins in NCAA
Average-case? 18 wins + 1 win in BTT + 1 win in NIT
Worst-case? 12 wins + no-win BTT + Fran resigning or being fired over a negative PR-related gaffe
I think a lot of people here would argue that your "worst case" would be their best case.