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Ian Pike Hammer
Guest
Give me your best, worst and then your most realistic prediction for Iowa this year: non-conference record, conference record and postseason, if any.
koralakers
Well-Known Member
I have moderate expectations. Especailly with 20-game BIG schedule. Hoping for around 18 victories, and maybe a victory in NIT. Would be totally satisfied with that
This next year has such a big difference between best case and worst case. I personally don't think most of the guys we lost are difficult to replace because they all had such huge holes in their games. But that doesn't mean the replacements won't still be a drop off. A drop off in talent with a huge drop off in experience will mean the worst case scenario probably plays out. To me that will be a season like a couple years ago. Replacements that end up being slightly all around better because of no holes in their game mean a season like last year or slightly better.
I think there is a decent chance CJF is a better all around player than Moss, a decent chance that Nunge could be an all around better player than Cook, and a decent chance our point guard position will be better than last year with 2 new options plus the possibility that we have a healthy Bohannon. Its unlikely all 3 will happen, but if it does, we could finally earn a seed that gives us a legit sweet 16 chance.
My prediction is a couple losses out of conference but with a tougher schedule, and a slightly better conference record, earning us a similar seed as last year.
I think there is a decent chance CJF is a better all around player than Moss, a decent chance that Nunge could be an all around better player than Cook, and a decent chance our point guard position will be better than last year with 2 new options plus the possibility that we have a healthy Bohannon. Its unlikely all 3 will happen, but if it does, we could finally earn a seed that gives us a legit sweet 16 chance.
My prediction is a couple losses out of conference but with a tougher schedule, and a slightly better conference record, earning us a similar seed as last year.
hawkeyesgonewild
Well-Known Member
im looking forward to this season most people don't expect anything from us. I think we will be alright nit at least . I think we will better than last year better defense in the back court guys that wont to play defense. we haven't had that for awhile and luka working on d . fran team will always be able to score but is stopping the opponent on d
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
Also a decent chance that Joe W is a first team all conference candidate. I loved his makeup last year, which was my biggest question about him the previous summer. The lights were not too bright for him.
There are countless examples of players who make the huge leap in their sophomore year. Everything is in place for Wiescamp to be the next. In addition to the players you mentioned the ones I will have my eye on the most are Joe Wiescamp and Luka Garza.
WestCoastHawk
Well-Known Member
Best case scenario, first round ncaa.
Worst case scenario, doesn't even make NIT.
Worst case scenario, doesn't even make NIT.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
We will have to really shit the bed to not make the NIT. But making the NCAA will definitely be more difficult because the conference won't be as strong. The conference won't be as strong and a power conference like the PAC 12 won't get held to two bids two years in a row. 10-10 in 2020 will mean NIT.
trj
Well-Known Member
I am going to wuss out on this one. I have no clue what to expect from JT, Nunge, or CJF. I know what Iowa needs from them, but will they get it? We can hope and speculate, but no one really knows. There are so many moving parts in the Iowa backcourt right now I can't get a feel. Will JW have to do a lot of heavy lifting at the 2? Will CM find a jump shot? Jbo's health? I can see a 6-8 seed in the NCAA tournament or no post season at all. The margin is that wide.
I know it's made fun of (and rightfully so) about Fran thinking Nunge could play the 3. But truth be told, he can play the 3 better than most guys his size. Now he's 2 years more experienced and 25 pounds heavier. Even if he can't play the 3 successfully, we still have a guy that's 7 foot and pretty thick with some decent 3 skills. I'm hopeful for big things from him.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
To me is comes down to four guys. Nunge, Toussaint, Evelyn, and Frederick. I think we pretty much have a good idea of what we will get from the rest of our guys, sans Pat who I’m not expecting much from.
If 3 of those 4 are quality B1G level starters we are probably a tourney team in the 7-9 range.
If 2 of the 4 are B1G quality starters we are probably pretty bubbly but could dance.
4 of 4 we have a pretty darn good team.
1 of 4 and we are probably NIT bound.
(Edit: if JBo returns and is his normal self we will only need 2 of those guys)
I’m pretty high on Nunge and I think CJF will be a good one, so for me it comes down to Toussaint and or Evelyn.
If 3 of those 4 are quality B1G level starters we are probably a tourney team in the 7-9 range.
If 2 of the 4 are B1G quality starters we are probably pretty bubbly but could dance.
4 of 4 we have a pretty darn good team.
1 of 4 and we are probably NIT bound.
(Edit: if JBo returns and is his normal self we will only need 2 of those guys)
I’m pretty high on Nunge and I think CJF will be a good one, so for me it comes down to Toussaint and or Evelyn.
I
Ian Pike Hammer
Guest
Totally ballsy prediction!
FirstDownHawkeyes
Well-Known Member
I couldn’t agree more with this. One thing I will add. I think PMac could fill the energy, long, do everything tweener off the bench role that Baer filled. If he does, Iowa needs a little less from the aforementioned 4.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
We are all assuming JBO out. If he is back and 100%, than everyone can revise.
I think a relatively safe prediction, given who we lost and who is replacing them, that Iowa will be better on defense and worse on offense. That's not much of a prediction.
Connor and Joe T will both be excellent defenders and distributors at the 1, but will be a shadow of the shooting we got from JBO. Missing JBO's "it" factor cannot be underestimated. JW has to take up that mantle, and I think he will. Overall minus.
JW, with likely Patrick playing the N. Baer role, will be even better at the 3 spot. Overall plus.
I see the front court as overall better, even losing Cook. Less turnovers, more balanced, everyone playing within themselves. Garza and Nunge call echoes of the glory days and the twin towers. The other two guys are legit back-ups in this league. I love our front court. Love. Overall plus.
So, it really comes down to the 2 position, as it has since we lost Jok. If we continue to get inconsistent production from this spot on both ends of the court, this is a borderline tourney team at best. If we find that second guard who can play consistent perimeter defense and get 28 minutes, with 13 efficient points a game, this team could actually be pretty damn good.
I will go with 22 wins.
I think a relatively safe prediction, given who we lost and who is replacing them, that Iowa will be better on defense and worse on offense. That's not much of a prediction.
Connor and Joe T will both be excellent defenders and distributors at the 1, but will be a shadow of the shooting we got from JBO. Missing JBO's "it" factor cannot be underestimated. JW has to take up that mantle, and I think he will. Overall minus.
JW, with likely Patrick playing the N. Baer role, will be even better at the 3 spot. Overall plus.
I see the front court as overall better, even losing Cook. Less turnovers, more balanced, everyone playing within themselves. Garza and Nunge call echoes of the glory days and the twin towers. The other two guys are legit back-ups in this league. I love our front court. Love. Overall plus.
So, it really comes down to the 2 position, as it has since we lost Jok. If we continue to get inconsistent production from this spot on both ends of the court, this is a borderline tourney team at best. If we find that second guard who can play consistent perimeter defense and get 28 minutes, with 13 efficient points a game, this team could actually be pretty damn good.
I will go with 22 wins.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
18-22 wins - on the bubble, but my floor expectations for this program will always be the NCAA. If they miss it, well, there will be a lot of excuses built in with what Iowa lost from last year, but IMO, these losses have been known for some time and as a Fran supporter and fan, my expectation of him as our HC is that he has plenty of time to sort that out and be prepared to field a quality team worthy of post season play.
Jason Rann
Well-Known Member
22 wins, solidly in the NCAA Tourney.
I don't think there are any excuses when you have Garza and Joe W back along with solid role players in Connor, Pemsl, and Kriener. Add to that 4 star recruits Patrick and Joe T, a grad transfer to mitigate Bohannon's loss, and potential breakout stars in Nunge and Fredrick and you have no excuses. If we don't win 20+ games and make it back to the NCAA's with a roster laden with plenty of experience/talent and TWO coaches son's, we will have under-performed and I'll be very disappointed in Fran and the transfers of Moss and Dailey would weigh heavily against him. However, I don't think that will happen. Lots of moving parts, but I think Joe T can take over the point, Bakari can mitigate the loss of Moss, Fredrick can replace Bohannon's shooting, Nunge can be an upgrade over Cook with his combined offense and defense, Patrick can mitigate Baer's loss, a more experienced Kriener with Pemsl can definitely be an upgrade over only Kriener to relieve Garza and Nunge, and more experienced leaders in Wieskamp and Garza can have a better seasons. To me, this all points to at least a similar season as last year where we were only a few minutes of OT away from the Sweet 16.
ibahawkeye
Well-Known Member
To make a prediction I wanted to get a sense of a potential line up so I put together below.
Joe/Connor/Bakari
Bakari/CJ
Joe/CJ
Nunge/Kriener/Pemsl
Garza/Kriener
I wouldn't be surprised to see Riley Till play some minutes at the 3. He's a little Baer like or I wouldn't be surprised to see Patrick play some spot minutes at the 3 as well.
Found an SI article of power rankings and Iowa is listed 10th of the 14. I'd say that's about right. I have no expectations for a postseason tournament, not even NIT.
This might be the year of the downfall of Fran. The results on the court take a step back and do we have any talent coming in that can provide hope for the future? I have concerns there as well.
Joe/Connor/Bakari
Bakari/CJ
Joe/CJ
Nunge/Kriener/Pemsl
Garza/Kriener
I wouldn't be surprised to see Riley Till play some minutes at the 3. He's a little Baer like or I wouldn't be surprised to see Patrick play some spot minutes at the 3 as well.
Found an SI article of power rankings and Iowa is listed 10th of the 14. I'd say that's about right. I have no expectations for a postseason tournament, not even NIT.
This might be the year of the downfall of Fran. The results on the court take a step back and do we have any talent coming in that can provide hope for the future? I have concerns there as well.
