Why is McNutt only a 4th round projection?

[DuffMan]

I would have loved to read Duff's evaluation of Troy Davis back in the day. Nobody has his numbers! Don't worry too much about the average speed, the numbers!

 

[LG210]

You are the person ruining this thread. Do us all a favor and take a break.

Actually, the worst thing about this thread is that Duff has a good number of Hawkeye fans arguing against McNutt's ability, which sucks because McNutt ranks right up there as an all-time favorite among many Hawk fans I know, including myself.

 

[whammer33024]

but the numbers for randy moss came against inferior competition, so if you take that into consideration it makes marvin's production even more impressive.

am i doing it right duff?

 

[DuffMan]

The big problem here that remains is the fact we're even discussing why a WR projected in the 4th round is elite. Elite college prospect WR's don't get projected in round 4, it's that simple.

This is an elite WR: Randy Moss - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Marvin is not that. It's that simple.

No one claimed he was an elite player. I said his college prodution was elite (it was). I said his size was elite (probably a stretch but at 6-3 he's probably in the top quartile of NFL receivers).

 

[DuffMan]

Actually, the worst thing about this thread is that Duff has a good number of Hawkeye fans arguing against McNutt's ability, which sucks because McNutt ranks right up there as an all-time favorite among many Hawk fans I know, including myself.

How do you get through the day? I'm serious. How have you managed to not ever walk into the path of a speeding truck, or stick a fork in a electircal outlet, or even just forget to breath for an hour or so?

 

[FCAS]

I'm not running anywhere. I asked a question, "How do you evaluate talent outside of on field performance and combine measurables?". Is there another way?

The key is how on-field performance is evaluated by NFL teams. Do they evaluate based on the stats in the Sunday morning paper or based on what they see in game film? I would argue that the stats get little if any weight.

 

[DuffMan]

but the numbers for randy moss came against inferior competition, so if you take that into consideration it makes marvin's production even more impressive.

am i doing it right duff?

Randy had elite measurables in addition to elite production. Those two things coupled together are almost never a miss. The only thing that gets in the way of those two things is phycological makeup, which was a serious issue for Randy, in fact it's the only thing that prevented him from being a number one pick that year.

 

[1hawkeye1]

marvin made some nice catches but his hands are freaking terrible.

 

[DuffMan]

The key is how on-field performance is evaluated by NFL teams. Do they evaluate based on the stats in the Sunday morning paper or based on what they see in game film? I would argue that the stats get little if any weight.

Ohhh films a big part no doubt, but the simple fact is you don't put up 80+ catches, 1300+ yards, and 12 TDS without beating people on film, especially in the B10. B10 CB's aren't known to be as strong as some of the corners in the SEC but they ain't no slouches either. The B10 is at worst a very very good football conference.

 

[LG210]

How do you get through the day? I'm serious. How have you managed to not ever walk into the path of a speeding truck, or stick a fork in a electircal outlet, or even just forget to breath for an hour or so?

Really? I thought the purpose of message boards was to discuss/debate topics in which multiple people hold a common interest in a particular subject but have differing views/opinions.

Would it not then be foreseeable that people would end up arguing against your position?

 

[hawkeyegamefilm]

FWIW I graded McNutt as a 3rd round pick. Consistently hear him described by scouts/front office types as "sneaky fast" or "deceptively quick". McNutt was both a play-maker and work-horse his senior year, and will likely end up more as the latter than the former in the NFL. He's definitely got a place in the league though.

In general college stats are pretty small part of the equation for WRs. It's not about the stats themselves, it's about how you got those stats. Yards per catch is one of the few stats that even carries any weight with front office types. Film is universal source for draft value.

 

[hogeye]

No one claimed he was an elite player. I said his college prodution was elite (it was). I said his size was elite (probably a stretch but at 6-3 he's probably in the top quartile of NFL receivers).

No, his college production was not elite, Duff. Nothing about him is elite.

 

[LG210]

Ohhh films a big part no doubt, but the simple fact is you don't put up 80+ catches, 1300+ yards, and 12 TDS without beating people on film, especially in the B10. B10 CB's aren't known to be as strong as some of the corners in the SEC but they ain't no slouches either. The B10 is at worst a very very good football conference.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, big boy... slow your roll.

You said that McNutt's competition was "solid" and that solid = average = OK. Now the B10 is "very very good"?

 

[LG210]

FWIW I graded McNutt as a 3rd round pick. Consistently hear him described by scouts/front office types as "sneaky fast" or "deceptively quick". McNutt was both a play-maker and work-horse his senior year, and will likely end up more as the latter than the former in the NFL. He's definitely got a place in the league though.

In general college stats are pretty small part of the equation for WRs. It's not about the stats themselves, it's about how you got those stats. Yards per catch is one of the few stats that even carries any weight with front office types. Film is universal source for draft value.

He could definitely go in the third and that would not be too surprising of a pick.

 

[DuffMan]

No, his college production was not elite, Duff. Nothing about him is elite.

I guess we are just going to have to disagree with this though.

I honestly don't understand how someone can be in the 90th% of starting college WR's in every single conceivable offesnive stat and NOT be considered to have elite production.

I don't understand how someone can own nearly every single receiving record in school history and not have elite production.

 

[FCAS]

Another factor working against Marvin (and most of the other receivers) is the demographics of this year's draft. There are a few very good WR prospects and a bunch of good WR prospects. Why take one of these good WR's in the second round when there will likely be a pool of WR's available in the 4th round that are just about as good?

 

[DuffMan]

FWIW I graded McNutt as a 3rd round pick. Consistently hear him described by scouts/front office types as "sneaky fast" or "deceptively quick". McNutt was both a play-maker and work-horse his senior year, and will likely end up more as the latter than the former in the NFL. He's definitely got a place in the league though.

In general college stats are pretty small part of the equation for WRs. It's not about the stats themselves, it's about how you got those stats. Yards per catch is one of the few stats that even carries any weight with front office types. Film is universal source for draft value.

I think 3rd is fair. I agree that stats aren't all powerful in terms of evaluating NFL talent. However I think the fact McNutt got his stats playing in a pro-style offense makes his more relevant than stats of some others.

 

[DuffMan]

Another factor working against Marvin (and most of the other receivers) is the demographics of this year's draft. There are a few very good WR prospects and a bunch of good WR prospects. Why take one of these good WR's in the second round when there will likely be a pool of WR's available in the 4th round that are just about as good?

While this is true it also means everyone outside of that first group is pretty interchangable. If a team has a need and falls in love with a player you could see them go a round or two earlier than many project.

 

[tm3308]

Another factor working against Marvin (and most of the other receivers) is the demographics of this year's draft. There are a few very good WR prospects and a bunch of good WR prospects. Why take one of these good WR's in the second round when there will likely be a pool of WR's available in the 4th round that are just about as good?

This too. This is why I thought he might have left a year ago, when the talent pool was nowhere near as deep.

 

[FCAS]

Ohhh films a big part no doubt, but the simple fact is you don't put up 80+ catches, 1300+ yards, and 12 TDS without beating people on film, especially in the B10. B10 CB's aren't known to be as strong as some of the corners in the SEC but they ain't no slouches either. The B10 is at worst a very very good football conference.

Yes, you can find Marvin beating people on film, but that's like evaluating a high school player based on their youtube video. A scout can focus the film-watching on the key matchups and make an evaluation on how a WR will fare against NFL talent.