Why I still think this is a tournament team

[NorthKCHawk]

Setting aside the tournament choke, last year was one of Iowa's best team's in recent memory. Can Iowa get back to that level with this year's squad? A quick comparison of the two squads:

5. Filip. There's another thread on this. Filip this year is much better that Filip last year. More confident, better scorer, more active. We are better at the 5.
4. Dammit, I know Kris is not quite as good as Keagan was, but is he that far off? It took him a game or two to get back in shape after the injury, but he is bombing the 3s, crashing the boards and playing great D. If Kris keeps playing like this, (where 17 points is a quiet night), this position might be a push. That is the most complimentary thing I have ever said about an Iowa BB player.
3. Connor is different, but largely a push for Patrick either this year or last. That said, I think Patrick suffered the most with the loss of Kris, and he pressured himself to step up and be the scorer. I am hoping that he can take a few games off, center his thinking, and come back not feeling like he has to be batman or robin or anyone, but just be himself and contribute to a team full of brothers.
2. Perkins has been a disappointment so far. But, he has played out of position some and is still finding his game in this different offensive system. He came on at the end of the year last year and I think will do so again as he settles back into his role as a scorer at the 2. This will ultimately be a push or even a plus compared to last year.
1. The two young point guards have a lot of talent, but they need to protect the ball much better. I like the trajectory of both, especially the freshmen. Its so hard to compare them to Bohannon because their games are so different and the offense is different. They just need to keep improving. They are certainly better on the D side of things.

Where is the biggest deficiency compared to last year? We don't have Kris coming off the bench. I like Sanford taking on this role. The law of averages and the law of shooter's confidence says he will continue to shoot well moving forward. He exercised the shanks the last two games. A guy who can hit big shots, play D, and put up 20+ points on any given night off the bench? We need it. He won't be Kris from last year, but he can do an imitation.

I am being optimistic after the last couple wins, but if the team comes together and plays to their potential, this is a wide open conference that usually gets 8-9 teams in. Iowa (once again) has a first team all conference guy leading them. I think Iowa can be in that discussion.

 

[HawkGold]

The Big is eventually going to lose numbers in the dance due to results.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Setting aside the tournament choke, last year was one of Iowa's best team's in recent memory. Can Iowa get back to that level with this year's squad? A quick comparison of the two squads:

5. Filip. There's another thread on this. Filip this year is much better that Filip last year. More confident, better scorer, more active. We are better at the 5.
4. Dammit, I know Kris is not quite as good as Keagan was, but is he that far off? It took him a game or two to get back in shape after the injury, but he is bombing the 3s, crashing the boards and playing great D. If Kris keeps playing like this, (where 17 points is a quiet night), this position might be a push. That is the most complimentary thing I have ever said about an Iowa BB player.
3. Connor is different, but largely a push for Patrick either this year or last. That said, I think Patrick suffered the most with the loss of Kris, and he pressured himself to step up and be the scorer. I am hoping that he can take a few games off, center his thinking, and come back not feeling like he has to be batman or robin or anyone, but just be himself and contribute to a team full of brothers.
2. Perkins has been a disappointment so far. But, he has played out of position some and is still finding his game in this different offensive system. He came on at the end of the year last year and I think will do so again as he settles back into his role as a scorer at the 2. This will ultimately be a push or even a plus compared to last year.
1. The two young point guards have a lot of talent, but they need to protect the ball much better. I like the trajectory of both, especially the freshmen. Its so hard to compare them to Bohannon because their games are so different and the offense is different. They just need to keep improving. They are certainly better on the D side of things.

Where is the biggest deficiency compared to last year? We don't have Kris coming off the bench. I like Sanford taking on this role. The law of averages and the law of shooter's confidence says he will continue to shoot well moving forward. He exercised the shanks the last two games. A guy who can hit big shots, play D, and put up 20+ points on any given night off the bench? We need it. He won't be Kris from last year, but he can do an imitation.

I am being optimistic after the last couple wins, but if the team comes together and plays to their potential, this is a wide open conference that usually gets 8-9 teams in. Iowa (once again) has a first team all conference guy leading them. I think Iowa can be in that discussion.

To be a negative Nancy here I'd say the PG position is a net negative for us atm. Ulis hit a couple 3s against Rutgers but he and Bowen production wise just don't do much. And when they turn it over or make the wrong plays they become liabilities more so then anything. If that position in general was better and more consistent along with some depth off the bench (even before PM stepped away this was an issue too) I'd be more confident in us getting in the dance. But between all that and the losses to E Illinois and NE I don't like our chances.

Nothing is impossible. We just won two games that seemed highly unlikely. I just think it's an uphill climb to continue to do it with the roster we have. Long conference season ahead of us yet alot can happen. I just think our margin for error is pretty thin. Kris and Rebraca will have to have really broad shoulders and Sandfort will have to stay hot

 

[InGoodCo]

They're back in Lunardi's first 4 out this morning.

Some things to consider at this point

Iowa has played 7 Quad 1 games so far, which is tied for the most with Kansas, Purdue and Uconn. Everyone else has played less than 7 so far

Iowa is 4-3 in those games. Kansas, Purdue, Arizona, Miami and Uconn have 5+ wins against Q1 - but Iowa is in the mix currently for having the most at this point at 4 with several other good teams

Iowa has a Q4 for loss - the only other top teams that have that sort of blemish is TCU, Clemson, Arizona State. This hurts, but I think it will be taken in consideration that our All American candidate was NOT playing at the time.

Iowa was in danger of missing the dance until last week. Last week really changed things and the opportunity is back on the table. Lots of games left to be played but if they can find a way to get to .500 or above in the B1G, they will be in the dance again.

 

[InGoodCo]

To be a negative Nancy here I'd say the PG position is a net negative for us atm. Ulis hit a couple 3s against Rutgers but he and Bowen production wise just don't do much. And when they turn it over or make the wrong plays they become liabilities more so then anything. If that position in general was better and more consistent along with some depth off the bench (even before PM stepped away this was an issue too) I'd be more confident in us getting in the dance. But between all that and the losses to E Illinois and NE I don't like our chances.

Nothing is impossible. We just won two games that seemed highly unlikely. I just think it's an uphill climb to continue to do it with the roster we have. Long conference season ahead of us yet alot can happen. I just think our margin for error is pretty thin. Kris and Rebraca will have to have really broad shoulders and Sandfort will have to stay hot

Nebraska could end up being a Q1 road loss when the dust settles. At worst will be a Q2 road loss. Not hurting. E Illinois will be looked at as a game Kris Murray didn't play in but yes, it will hurt, just not sure it will hurt as much as we all think because of that caveat. The committee takes injuries into consideration. I am not saying it doesn't hurt at all, I just don't think, if this team can get to .500 in the conference will matter. Maybe makes us a 9 or 10 seed vs an 8 or 7, which is huge.

Everything else you said, I completely agree with. Razor thin margin for error but just based on schedule, the road to get there is winning most of the games at home and stealing just 1 more on the road at either MN or Northwestern. Uphill battle, but not a feat that would be impossible, especially seeing how well they are playing now that Kris is back and healthy.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Nebraska could end up being a Q1 road loss when the dust settles. At worst will be a Q2 road loss. Not hurting. E Illinois will be looked at as a game Kris Murray didn't play in but yes, it will hurt, just not sure it will hurt as much as we all think because of that caveat. The committee takes injuries into consideration. I am not saying it doesn't hurt at all, I just don't think, if this team can get to .500 in the conference will matter. Maybe makes us a 9 or 10 seed vs an 8 or 7, which is huge.

Everything else you said, I completely agree with. Razor thin margin for error but just based on schedule, the road to get there is winning most of the games at home and stealing just 1 more on the road at either MN or Northwestern. Uphill battle, but not a feat that would be impossible, especially seeing how well they are playing now that Kris is back and healthy.

True the NE loss could not be so bad depending how their yr goes. But damn it to me it's a bad loss. If Iowa beats them and E Illinois this whole conversation is different I think. That's the one more road win you were asking for. Well either that or the PSU gm. And since that was a closer game that should be the one we debate about more I suppose. It was clearly winnable.

Feels like we made it tougher on ourselves and I'm just not sure we can survive the marathon to come out on the other end. My gut is we'll have to make a run in the BIG tourny to get in. How good of one we'll see...

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Connor was out with injury against E Illinois too. That is two starters out. Still a bad loss, but that is why I like committees instead of computers. If Iowa's resume is otherwise good enough to dance, that explainable loss will not be a barrier.

Let's also remember that Murray was out several weeks and a couple of our early conference losses were when he was playing back into shape. If Iowa trends better, the committee will take that into account. Injuries and trajectory absolutely matter.

We have 9 home games left. We do not play Wisky or Purdue in IC. To be realistic, let's say we win 7 home games and steal 1 more road victory. That would get us to 10-10 in conference. That is a very realistic scenario. 10-10 and 7th place in the conference is dancing. We also have a couple nice noncon wins.

 

[InGoodCo]

Connor was out with injury against E Illinois too. That is two starters out. Still a bad loss, but that is why I like committees instead of computers. If Iowa's resume is otherwise good enough to dance, that explainable loss will not be a barrier.

Let's also remember that Murray was out several weeks and a couple of our early conference losses were when he was playing back into shape. If Iowa trends better, the committee will take that into account. Injuries and trajectory absolutely matter.

We have 9 home games left. We do not play Wisky or Purdue in IC. To be realistic, let's say we win 7 home games and steal 1 more road victory. That would get us to 10-10 in conference. That is a very realistic scenario. 10-10 and 7th place in the conference is dancing. We also have a couple nice noncon wins.

Yep, that's what I am saying, find a way to get to .500 and they'll be in, and they'll also have a strong SOS, will have played close to as many Q1 games as any team in the country and they're are no more bad losses out there to be had. I went from thinking we're out to now we're in a position to get in just by kind of going chalk the rest of the way.

 

[Gibsonian]

Just win baby

 

[MelroseHawkins]

To be a negative Nancy here I'd say the PG position is a net negative for us atm. Ulis hit a couple 3s against Rutgers but he and Bowen production wise just don't do much. And when they turn it over or make the wrong plays they become liabilities more so then anything. If that position in general was better and more consistent along with some depth off the bench (even before PM stepped away this was an issue too) I'd be more confident in us getting in the dance. But between all that and the losses to E Illinois and NE I don't like our chances.

Nothing is impossible. We just won two games that seemed highly unlikely. I just think it's an uphill climb to continue to do it with the roster we have. Long conference season ahead of us yet alot can happen. I just think our margin for error is pretty thin. Kris and Rebraca will have to have really broad shoulders and Sandfort will have to stay hot

You have to put in Uhlis and Bowen's defensive production with their quickness. There are times in games where they are creating havoc and doing it defensively. You can't just look at offense all the time.

But, they do make me nervous as hell at times when we have the ball. Just waiting for a TO.

 

[BigD]

Oddly enough there seems to be some chemistry with this team the last two games. Chemistry can be huge in building momentum. Let’s hope the boys can keep it rolling.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

You have to put in Uhlis and Bowen's defensive production with their quickness. There are times in games where they are creating havoc and doing it defensively. You can't just look at offense all the time.

But, they do make me nervous as hell at times when we have the ball. Just waiting for a TO.

Against PSU and Wisky their D wasn't any good either... In games we've lost their D hasn't been what I'd describe as positive. Bowen in fairness doesn't really play enough to be blasted. He's a true frosh just getting his feet wet. He probably should be redshirting. But our depth is what it is...

 

[NorthKCHawk]

The two PGs should get better as the season progresses. The more minutes and confidence they get, the better they should be. I hope. In general, this team will only go as far as our guard play allows it. Given the front court, the guards don't have to be great, just good enough. So far, the reviews are very much mixed on Iowa's young back court.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

I wonder how banged up Perkins is? In my opinion, he might be key to the rest of season. Early in the year, I thought he was the clear #2 on the team, and maybe even more important than Kris at times. First dynamic two way player at guard I can remember in a long time.

If he can get healthy/confidence going again, I'd love to see heavy minutes of Perkins and Connor together in the backcourt, with Kris, Rebraca, and Sandfort. And then just sprinkle in Ulis/Bowen/Dix a bit. But those first 5 are a clear cut top 5 in my opinion.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

The two PGs should get better as the season progresses. The more minutes and confidence they get, the better they should be. I hope. In general, this team will only go as far as our guard play allows it. Given the front court, the guards don't have to be great, just good enough. So far, the reviews are very much mixed on Iowa's young back court.

Ulis is in yr 3 isn't he? I think he is who he is at this point. Bowen on the other hand is a blank canvass. I wish they'd almost split their mins. Since Bowens burned his RS may as well really see what we have in him. Throw him in the fire more. But that doesn't seem to be how Fran wants to handle em

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Ulis is in yr 3 isn't he? I think he is who he is at this point. Bowen on the other hand is a blank canvass. I wish they'd almost split their mins. Since Bowens burned his RS may as well really see what we have in him. Throw him in the fire more. But that doesn't seem to be how Fran wants to handle em

It is his third year, but he has only been a starter for a handful of games. His first two years on campus he was a spot duty guy so this is his first chance to really develop on the floor with more minutes. I still think there is room for him to grow, and we saw some of that growth against Rutgers. But yes, I don't think he has huge upside and I am hoping Bowen does. Either way, we need both of them to play better if we hope to go anywhere. Or as others have suggested, we might have to see more Connor at the forward/point.

 

[InGoodCo]

We can have 1 way or the other - throw Bowen out there, let him turn it over every time he faces pressure and have teams get up big on us because we can't get the ball down the court. Or, sit him, let Ulis, who does turn it over, but at a much smaller clip compared to his minutes vs Bowens and maintain games. Bowen is not out there because he can't be trusted with the rock at all. He can't be trusted to get an inbound. He can't be trusted to inbound. He can't be trusted to handle any pressure. He can't be trusted period. I think his upside is way higher than Ulis's but if the plan is win games now, AU is the better choice hands down. Every time Bowen comes in he turns it over - he's playing less than 12 minutes a game vs Ulis who's had to log a lot of minutes.

If we wanna win now, gonna have to use Bowen sparingly. I think the scout is out on him, when he comes in, pressure him and he'll be an easy transition bucket.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

We can have 1 way or the other - throw Bowen out there, let him turn it over every time he faces pressure and have teams get up big on us because we can't get the ball down the court. Or, sit him, let Ulis, who does turn it over, but at a much smaller clip compared to his minutes vs Bowens and maintain games. Bowen is not out there because he can't be trusted with the rock at all. He can't be trusted to get an inbound. He can't be trusted to inbound. He can't be trusted to handle any pressure. He can't be trusted period. I think his upside is way higher than Ulis's but if the plan is win games now, AU is the better choice hands down. Every time Bowen comes in he turns it over - he's playing less than 12 minutes a game vs Ulis who's had to log a lot of minutes.

If we wanna win now, gonna have to use Bowen sparingly. I think the scout is out on him, when he comes in, pressure him and he'll be an easy transition bucket.

Why do we have to either? At least for starter minutes? We didn't at the beginning of the year. And with Connor playing more, that'd be a second primary ballhandler with Perkins. Maybe Perkins is too banged up for that compared to earlier this season.

 

[trj]

KenPom has Iowa's projected record to be 18-13, 10-10 in conference play. That screams of needing to win at least two conference tourney games with that Eastern Illinois loss hanging over their head.

12-8/11-9 is the mark where we should feel they comfortably get in.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

We can have 1 way or the other - throw Bowen out there, let him turn it over every time he faces pressure and have teams get up big on us because we can't get the ball down the court. Or, sit him, let Ulis, who does turn it over, but at a much smaller clip compared to his minutes vs Bowens and maintain games. Bowen is not out there because he can't be trusted with the rock at all. He can't be trusted to get an inbound. He can't be trusted to inbound. He can't be trusted to handle any pressure. He can't be trusted period. I think his upside is way higher than Ulis's but if the plan is win games now, AU is the better choice hands down. Every time Bowen comes in he turns it over - he's playing less than 12 minutes a game vs Ulis who's had to log a lot of minutes.

If we wanna win now, gonna have to use Bowen sparingly. I think the scout is out on him, when he comes in, pressure him and he'll be an easy transition bucket.

I think if Bowen had been given more mins earlier in season he'd have gotten better about all that. With so few mins and opportunities he's pressing like crazy to try and impress. I'm not saying play him 30 mins. But putting him in for about 8-10 mins a half and close to 20/game would be really helpful for his development and by later in the year he may be able to be counted on for more. Ulis has no upside at all. Bowen at least does.

I get what you're saying about winning now. I just think there's a middle ground to be found and still do that