Ahem, you do realize that, Dunn aside, this is the same 1-8 lineup that is currently the worst in the division? And just because they are in the worst division baseball doesn't eliminate the half the schedule that has to be played against the NL East & NL West--even if they wouldn't be essentially the same team--only with worse pitching--than the team that has lost twenty more games than the Reds, 18 more than the Cards within the worst division in baseball.
Not to mention that Dunn has signaled his disinterest in playing in Chicago. He turned down the chance to play for the White Sox, who actually are a competitor with a chance to play post-season now and next year; why would the Cubs be different--he wants to move from the Nationals to play for another last place team?
The Cubs were briefly a competiive team...because of their starting pitching--Zambrano WAS a #1 SP, Lilly was a good LHP to use as a #2; Dempster, Hardin, Marquis were the rest of a very good rotation. They are all/will be/should be gone except Dempster. Leaves Wells, who can't be a .500 starter withour far more offense and a better defense behind him; Silva who is a conditioning risk, likely to return to his dismal performances of previous seasons. And Hendry can fill in the rest of the rotation with drek like junkballer Coleman or waiver pickup Diamond? The Cubs have ONE real pitching prospect (Adam Shafer) who isn't years away from the majors: he is probably the #1 prospect in the system, but he is mid-season 2011 at the earliest, more likely 2012.
And most discouraging, there is little indication that the new ownership will dump Hendry in favor of a new GM who will rebuild an organization that has a hugely over-inflated payroll and at the same time a farm system with as little depth as anyplace not named Detroit or Houston.
Outside of the 3-4 hitters, the offense was actually pretty good. If you want to argue that Lou was an idiot for leaving Lee and Ramirez in those spots for months when they weren't hitting, fine. But they had very good performance from all 4 regular OFs, Soto has been one of two or three best hitting catchers all year, Castro has been above average for a SS (I believe he's 5th in wOBA for a SS). If you get league average performance from Ramirez and Lee all year, they aren't anywhere close to 20 games back, they're probably in the middle of the NL Central race. You do realize Theriot ( who is a bad hitter) outperformed Lee most of the year and Ramirez for the first couple of months? Right? And having Colvin and Theriot, the two guys with the worst OBPs on the team, hitting at the top of the order a big chunk of the year didn't help that.
As for Dunn, put him at 3 or 4, with Ramirez at the other, and getting career norms from both and nothing more, you are back to having a very good 3-4 combination. With DeWitt and Castro or Soto ahead of them, there will be a huge increase in runs scored. Sliding Byrd down into 5th, Soriano 6th, Castro or Soto(who would probably hit 5th if not 2nd) at 7 and Colvin or Fukudome 8th, 1-8 is very good. Look up Colvin and Fukudome's numbers vs every other 8 hitter in the league. They both destroy them, and those would probably be the 2 worst hitters on the team, with the possible exeption of Castro.
As for the prospects, with Dempster, Gorzelanny (who you forgot about) and Wells, there are three pitchers we know will be back. If Z isn't back, they can afford to go after a top of the line starter. Maybe not an ace, but a solid 2-3 type. Plus they should have enough for a back end starter (Lilly for 2/$12?). Otherwise, the have 3-4 guys that are ready to contribute as a 5. Cashner, Jackson, Marshall are all guys that could fill that role next season. Would they give you ace-like numbers? No, but they wouldn't need them to. And they'd only need one of those guys to step up, not two or three of them.
The biggest weakness would be from the bullpen, again. But, with the number of rookies they used there this year, and the expected improvement from year 1 to year 2, they shouldn't be quite as bad, especially if Grabow comes back and doesn't completely suck.
As I said, they aren't trying to beat the Yankees, Devil Rays or Red Sox, they are trying to beat the Cards and Reds, and both of those teams have big holes in their teams. Hell, depending on what happens with Pujols, the Cards may not even be a consideration next year, if he isn't back (though I expect him to be). It won't take much to improve, IF they get career averages from everyone. They don't need huge years, just their norms. Not having two massive black holes in the middle of the order would be HUGE.
