Who should the Cubs target?

[busabus114]

The correct answer is they shouldnt go after anybody. They need to shed whatever salary they can, develop some prospects and use the money they save to go after future free agents.

Theres no need to spend a bunch of cash on FA when they arent going to be competitive anyways

The Cubs are a loooooong ways from being relevant again

 

[busabus114]

Because every player in MLB knows that if he's a part of a Cubs team that wins the series, that he and the 24 other guys on the roster will be immortal.

You realize that nobody wants to play for the Cubs because they think they will be immortal right? This statement sums up how delusional Cubs fans can be

 

[hawkijustin]

As I said, they aren't trying to beat the Yankees, Devil Rays or Red Sox, they are trying to beat the Cards and Reds, and both of those teams have big holes in their teams. Hell, depending on what happens with Pujols, the Cards may not even be a consideration next year, if he isn't back (though I expect him to be). It won't take much to improve, IF they get career averages from everyone. They don't need huge years, just their norms. Not having two massive black holes in the middle of the order would be HUGE.

Please explain your reason for the Cards not being in consideration next year?.. I have time.

 

[DuffMan]

It's a futile excercise to try and determine who we bring in until we know what the payroll will be and we won't know that any time soon.

In a perfect world we go after Adrian Gonzales but hes under contract next year for less than 7 million, and the Padres won't cut him loose in the offseason when they have a chance to go to the playoffs again. Prince Fielder is in the same situation, he might be available mid season in a trade but not before July.

The most likely scenario is one in which we go after a 2nd tier FA like an Adam Dunn and sit tight. If we do bring in a pitcher next year it's likely to be another journeymen or project ala Silva or Jason Marquis. Of course it's also possible our rotation looks like Zambrano, Silva, Dempster, Groz, Wells, we end up with Nady and Colvin at 1b and our outfield ends up being a rotation of Soriano, Byrd, Fuke, Colvin, and even Nady.

Bottom line, don't expect a spending spree at the end of this year, the new ownership might just look to ride out a couple of bad contracts next year and go after some big guys like Prince or Adrian next year. Also don't think 1B is the only option, they might also go after a 3B and move Aramis to 1B. He's slipped a bit defensively there and at 1B he would be less of a liability.

 

[MSGT1]

Please explain your reason for the Cards not being in consideration next year?.. I have time.

I was talking about Pujols. If his option isn't picked up, I believe it's a mutual option, and the Cards can't re-sign him, they will suck.

I fully expect him to be back, I was just pointing out there is a slight possibility he won't be.

 

[cjhawks]

Cubs tickets are among the highest in MLB. It doesn't sound like that will be changing. Ricketts knows that in order for people to pay those prices, the product on the field must be competitive. I don't think the Cubs can simply "go young and rebuild" without slashing ticket prices.

The Cubs will continue to go after top free agents. I think the difference with Ricketts is they will spend money more wiser than before. I think Ricketts will provide valuable input to Hendry from a business sense, and, if Hendry is still GM, gone are the days of overbidding and overspending for big name free agents. Although the $$ plays a key role, there are plenty of ways to entice a top free agent to join the Cubs.

Ramirez will definitely pick up his option- he said he plans on honoring his contract. Which is basically a BS way of saying "I sucked this year and there is no way anyone would pay me $15 million after the year I had". I think Fukudome's recent hot streak bodes well for the Cubs being able to get rid of him in the offseason. They will still have to eat some of the money, but if he keeps hitting, that figure goes down.

Z has a no trade and a bad contract. At this point, they are stuck with him and his antics. He can still be a serviceable 3-5 rotation guy, but he's no longer a top of the line ace. Those days are long gone. He can no longer reach back and throw a 95 mph heater past someone. Now he has to adjust and actually learn to pitch. Use the natural movement on his pitches.

Also in the offseason, I'd explore trading Marmol. He could net the most value in return, and is probably the most attractive trade chip in the stable. I think Cashner has the makings of being an excellent closer w/ a little experience and confidence.

Are they a 90 win team? Probably not, but there is no reason to believe that with the right moves, moves that make sense and are a fit for the team, that they can't be competitive in the Central next season.

 

[DuffMan]

No way we trade Marmol, he's a legitimate closer (not easy to come by) who will be relatively cheap for the next several years.

Casher hasn't been able to get anyone out consistently yet, let alone be the 9th inning guy. It's insane to think otherwise.

 

[MSGT1]

It's a futile excercise to try and determine who we bring in until we know what the payroll will be and we won't know that any time soon.

In a perfect world we go after Adrian Gonzales but hes under contract next year for less than 7 million, and the Padres won't cut him loose in the offseason when they have a chance to go to the playoffs again. Prince Fielder is in the same situation, he might be available mid season in a trade but not before July.

The most likely scenario is one in which we go after a 2nd tier FA like an Adam Dunn and sit tight. If we do bring in a pitcher next year it's likely to be another journeymen or project ala Silva or Jason Marquis. Of course it's also possible our rotation looks like Zambrano, Silva, Dempster, Groz, Wells, we end up with Nady and Colvin at 1b and our outfield ends up being a rotation of Soriano, Byrd, Fuke, Colvin, and even Nady.

Bottom line, don't expect a spending spree at the end of this year, the new ownership might just look to ride out a couple of bad contracts next year and go after some big guys like Prince or Adrian next year. Also don't think 1B is the only option, they might also go after a 3B and move Aramis to 1B. He's slipped a bit defensively there and at 1B he would be less of a liability.

Not that I disagree, but all of the comments I've seen out of everybody in that organization is that they fully intend on being competetive next year. Couple that with the payroll they are going to have off the books, and they have enough to bring in a replacement for Lee (ie. Dunn) and a #2-3 type pitcher. If they are able to trade Z and/or Fukudome without picking up huge chunks of those contracts, they have enough to get Dunn and make a competetive offer to Cliff Lee, and do both with a lower payroll than this season.

They don't need to make a ton a moves to be competitive again. Dunn improves their offense a ton, when compared to this year, and even re-signing Lilly for a couple of years gives them a decent rotation. Subtract Z and change Lilly to Lee and they have a very good rotation.

Right now, they'll have roughly $15-20 mil to spend next year. Trade Z and eat half the contract and trade Fukudome for kibble adds another $20 mil. If you don't think Hendry, or hopefully another GM, will have the go ahead to spend a big chunk of those extra funds to get the Cubs back in competition, you've been reading something completely different than I have. What I've read is they are fully planning on going after the Cards and Reds next year and that they don't need to rebuild. They can't do that just bringing up rookies, they'll have to go after FAs and all indications that I've seen have Dunn as their #1 offseason target.

 

[cjhawks]

No way we trade Marmol, he's a legitimate closer (not easy to come by) who will be relatively cheap for the next several years.

Casher hasn't been able to get anyone out consistently yet, let alone be the 9th inning guy. It's insane to think otherwise.

I don't think it will happen either, but if the focus is to get younger and better - Marmol would have to be something that should at the very least be explored.

 

[DuffMan]

Moving Z, Sori, and Fuke is easier said then Dunn. We aren't the only ones that realize they are bad contracts... I mean Soriano is owed 18 million per year for the next 4 years, no one is going to take that contract. You can say "well the Cubs will agree to pay half of it"... OK... ask yourself this... would anyone sign Soriano this year to a 4 year deal for 9 million per season? If the answer is no then why would they basically agree to doing that in a trade.

Fukudome is a little easier because he actually plays defense and he only has one year left, but even then we are going to have to eat part of his salary, or (this is more likely) we trade him for a project pitcher with 1 year left on his own bad deal and try to fix him (like the Milton Bradley Carlos Silva deal).

Will Zambrano go? I think he's the most attractive. He's got enough upside that someone will think "a change of scenery helps him, lets take him if the cubs pay part of his deal".

Again thats a ton of ifs... I think it's just as likely that we go into next year with Xavier Nady penciled in at first (his strong close is making that more likely IMO) and an outfield of Soriano, Byrd, and Colvin.

 

[hawkfarmer]

Moving Z, Sori, and Fuke is easier said then Dunn. We aren't the only ones that realize they are bad contracts... I mean Soriano is owed 18 million per year for the next 4 years, no one is going to take that contract. You can say "well the Cubs will agree to pay half of it"... OK... ask yourself this... would anyone sign Soriano this year to a 4 year deal for 9 million per season? If the answer is no then why would they basically agree to doing that in a trade.

Fukudome is a little easier because he actually plays defense and he only has one year left, but even then we are going to have to eat part of his salary, or (this is more likely) we trade him for a project pitcher with 1 year left on his own bad deal and try to fix him (like the Milton Bradley Carlos Silva deal).

Will Zambrano go? I think he's the most attractive. He's got enough upside that someone will think "a change of scenery helps him, lets take him if the cubs pay part of his deal".

Again thats a ton of ifs... I think it's just as likely that we go into next year with Xavier Nady penciled in at first (his strong close is making that more likely IMO) and an outfield of Soriano, Byrd, and Colvin.

Couldn't agree with you more. Sori is here to stay, guaranteed. I can't see the cubs keeping Fukudome, and we Z has overstayed his welcome. The only reason he is with the club right now is because they need to up his value so they can trade at least part of his salary.

 

[DuffMan]

I don't think it will happen either, but if the focus is to get younger and better - Marmol would have to be something that should at the very least be explored.

No it shouldn't. I don't disagree with your premise that we need to get younger, but you don't trade a legitimate young closer with less than 6 years of MLB service.

 

[bws258]

I like Colvin in LF, but as long as we are going to be stuck with Fonsy for a while, put Colvin at 1B, let Hoffpauir back him up.

 

[busabus114]

No it shouldn't. I don't disagree with your premise that we need to get younger, but you don't trade a legitimate young closer with less than 6 years of MLB service.

This....as long as he's controllable and affordable you dont trade him

 

[cjhawks]

No it shouldn't. I don't disagree with your premise that we need to get younger, but you don't trade a legitimate young closer with less than 6 years of MLB service.

Even if it allows them to address multiple needs at other positions?

Look, I think he's a very valuable asset, and they shouldn't trade him. But it's a business, and in any business all possibilities are considered. This is just one possibility that would be considered for 2 minutes instead of 2 days.

 

[tiggerhawk]

No way we trade Marmol, he's a legitimate closer (not easy to come by) who will be relatively cheap for the next several years.

Casher hasn't been able to get anyone out consistently yet, let alone be the 9th inning guy. It's insane to think otherwise.

Cashner is not ready to be a major league pitcher--and unless he can master a second pitch in the minors next year, his prospects are bleak (he throws everything at one speed, and even crafty control-guys pitchers who can locate their pitches--which Cashner can't begin to do--have problems with good hitters). Cashner has an ERA of six runs a game, and it sure won't get better when hitters see him a second time.

The worst delusion of Cub fans is assuming that mid-twenties guys who eventually have some modest success in Triple A or Double A can translate this is to getting hitters out in the majors.

The records of minor league guys that the Cubs have tried this year:
Russell 0-1-4,76
Cashner 1-5-5.95
Berg 0-1-5.77
Coleman 1-1-5.76
Diamond 0-3-6.23
Atkins 0-0-7.20
Mateo 0-1-9.39
Caridad 0-1-11.25
Schlitter 0-1-12.38
Samardjica 0-1-18.90

Still, the fact that the Cubs have no pitching prospects ready to help the big club in the next couple of years (until Aaron Shafer arrives) is not necessarily a reason to hold on to Marmol.

The Cardinals have been the best team in the NL Central for almost a decade, and they aren't going away (Pujols is a fixture, period). The Astros, second-best to the Cards this century, have stumbled a bit--but since Memorial Day they are six games over .500, playing at a pace twenty games better than the Cubs. Milwaukee and Cincy have a solid group of young players, as well as more talent in the higher minor leagues. It will be very much an uhill struggle for the Cubs to finish higher than 5th in the division the next couple of years.

Marmol isn't going to make much difference over the next three, four seasons. The Cubs would do about the same with a musical chairs of run-of-the-mill relievers (the trick is to sign for a lot less money a guy like Arthur Rhodes for that one year like his this season when he is pitching lights out to everyone's amazement)to be wholly confident that Marmol will have the same effectiveness five years from now.

IMO it makes sense for the Cubbie front office to test the market, see what Marmol could bring in exchange--talent to help the club become competitive again quicker. This would not be advisable until a different GM than Jim Hendry was in charge of evaluating the talent offered.

The second most ludicrous delusion of Cub fans is that they seem willing to believe that new ownership can make a difference even though Ricketts says that he intends to keep Hendry running the team. It is hilarious when fans say mind-boggling idiocies like Ricketts will bring business acumen to guide Hendry to more successful decidion-making as the GM. You could hold a drawing any night at Wrigley Field and the odds are that any one of the 40,000+ fans drawing the winning ticket would be every bit as knowledgeable about baseballl as Ricketts--probably more so.

 

[DuffMan]

The only thing you said that I agree with is that Cubs fans are delusional. As long as the pirates are in the division the cubs will place no worse than 4th. You don't trade a legitimate stud closer with less than six years of service for prospects in the off season. Even with the bad contracts if the cubs get a similar season this year as the got from Soriano they are only 2 key players from fielding a solid team.

If the cubs sign Dunn in the offseason, they get a career average year out of Rammy, and they get similar years out of Colvin, Castro, Soriano, and Soto this year, they would be in a position to compete in the central with a little bullpen help.

 

[Fors98121]

If I'm Cubs GM:

1) They're in big trouble.

2) Give me a left handed bat with a high OPS.

 

[woodyk1]

Cashner is not ready to be a major league pitcher--and unless he can master a second pitch in the minors next year, his prospects are bleak (he throws everything at one speed, and even crafty control-guys pitchers who can locate their pitches--which Cashner can't begin to do--have problems with good hitters). Cashner has an ERA of six runs a game, and it sure won't get better when hitters see him a second time.

The worst delusion of Cub fans is assuming that mid-twenties guys who eventually have some modest success in Triple A or Double A can translate this is to getting hitters out in the majors.

The records of minor league guys that the Cubs have tried this year:
Russell 0-1-4,76
Cashner 1-5-5.95
Berg 0-1-5.77
Coleman 1-1-5.76
Diamond 0-3-6.23
Atkins 0-0-7.20
Mateo 0-1-9.39
Caridad 0-1-11.25
Schlitter 0-1-12.38
Samardjica 0-1-18.90

Still, the fact that the Cubs have no pitching prospects ready to help the big club in the next couple of years (until Aaron Shafer arrives) is not necessarily a reason to hold on to Marmol.

The Cardinals have been the best team in the NL Central for almost a decade, and they aren't going away (Pujols is a fixture, period). The Astros, second-best to the Cards this century, have stumbled a bit--but since Memorial Day they are six games over .500, playing at a pace twenty games better than the Cubs. Milwaukee and Cincy have a solid group of young players, as well as more talent in the higher minor leagues. It will be very much an uhill struggle for the Cubs to finish higher than 5th in the division the next couple of years.

Marmol isn't going to make much difference over the next three, four seasons. The Cubs would do about the same with a musical chairs of run-of-the-mill relievers (the trick is to sign for a lot less money a guy like Arthur Rhodes for that one year like his this season when he is pitching lights out to everyone's amazement)to be wholly confident that Marmol will have the same effectiveness five years from now.

IMO it makes sense for the Cubbie front office to test the market, see what Marmol could bring in exchange--talent to help the club become competitive again quicker. This would not be advisable until a different GM than Jim Hendry was in charge of evaluating the talent offered.

The second most ludicrous delusion of Cub fans is that they seem willing to believe that new ownership can make a difference even though Ricketts says that he intends to keep Hendry running the team. It is hilarious when fans say mind-boggling idiocies like Ricketts will bring business acumen to guide Hendry to more successful decidion-making as the GM. You could hold a drawing any night at Wrigley Field and the odds are that any one of the 40,000+ fans drawing the winning ticket would be every bit as knowledgeable about baseballl as Ricketts--probably more so.

No argument about Hendry still being involved. I am not sure why things would change with the same person making decisions. And, speaking as a Cubs fan, being delusional is part of the charm.

I am curious. Why is Shafer a better prospect than Cashner? Both are 23, 6 foot 5 inches and 185 pounds. Shafer is a lefty and Cashner is a righty and both pitched at Tennessee this year. Here are the stats at Tennessee this year (Shafer pitched out of the bullpen while Cashner started at Tennessee):

Player ----------- Cashner ----- Shafer
Games ------------- 6 -------- 22
Games Started ------ 6 -------- 0
Innings Pitched ----- 36 -------- 28.1
Hits Allowed -------- 22 -------- 31
Walks -------------- 13 -------- 10
Strikeouts ---------- 42 -------- 25
Earned Runs -------- 11 -------- 18
ERA --------------- 2.75 -------- 5.72

Cashner had more innings, gave up less hits, less runs and walked a couple of more batters. I am really interested in why Shafer is considered to be better.

 

[tiggerhawk]

I am curious. Why is Shafer a better prospect than Cashner? Both are 23, 6 foot 5 inches and 185 pounds. Shafer is a lefty and Cashner is a righty and both pitched at Tennessee this year.

I am really interested in why Shafer is considered to be better.

He isn't.

Instead, I am bordering on brain-dead and probably need to start worrying about the onset of senility.

Why I referred to Aaron Shafer I have not a clue. I MEANT to point out that the #1 prospect in the Cub organization is young, lanky RHP Chris Archer.

Archer started the year in high Class A at Daytona in the FSL, and put up very good numbers: 72 IP, only 54 hits, 26 BB, 82 K, won 7, lost only once, good ERA 0f 2.86, good WHIP of 1.11. He moved up to be the ace of the staff at Double Tennessee: 68 IP, only 47 hits, 37 BB, 65 K, won 8, lost 2, excellent 1.85 ERA, WHIP a bit high for the Southern League at 1.24 (because of those 37 walks).

Control and command make him still a work in process, and he probably is a year or more away from Wrigley. He could stand to put on some weight/muscle, but at only 21 that usually comes with physical maturity.
The scouts say he will be the #1 starter for the Cubs eventually.

Shafter has a chance to make it to the majors, have a decent career in the bullpen--southpaws with good control who have at least two effective pitches even if they don't have overpowering stuff tend to hang around, and Shafer is the prototype lefty (despite his size).

Cub fans who anticipate Cashner becoming a key member of the starting rotation are in for disappointment IMO. He is no closer to having a second "out" pitch than he was when he was drafted. His pitches all come in at too much the same velocity, and major league hitters feast on that. As I said, his ERA is around six runs a game now, and the more hitters see of him, the higher it will climb. From what I see, he needs to go back to Iowa or Tennessee next year to get instruction from a top-quality pitching coach and to concentrate on mastering a change-up and a breaking pitch (preferably both), forget about wins & losses, acquire the means and learn to keep hitters off-balance & unable to sit on the fast ball.

So, yes, Cashner COULD have more upside than Shafer...but probably won't. But the prospect I meant to get excited about is Chris Archer.
MEA CULPA.