Colorado had a similar non-conference schedule last year, only went 8-8 in the B12, which was nowhere near as good as the B10 last year and was still the team most people felt got screwed out of the NCAA tournament. If we go 11-7 in the best conference in the country, we're going to be in.
What's it going to take to dance?
- Thread starter WhitUp
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Colorado had a similar non-conference schedule last year, only went 8-8 in the B12, which was nowhere near as good as the B10 last year and was still the team most people felt got screwed out of the NCAA tournament. If we go 11-7 in the best conference in the country, we're going to be in.
HawkPrdatr40
Well-Known Member
If Iowa wins 12 they are in. IMO- slam dunk!!
ISU might make the Dance, Creighton will more than likely will make the dance and a loss to a ACC team is never a bad loss, UNI is not that bad of a loss as it was in the past. so other than Campbell not sure why everybody is crying about OOC losses.
as of now ISU is 4th at 2-2 12-5 overall, Clemson is sitting in about the same position,UNI and Drake are both 3-3 in conference.
other than the 1st 3 schools, all have a winning record.
if you have played 10 teams in the OOC that have a winning record it will only help the RPI and Pomer roy rankings
as of now ISU is 4th at 2-2 12-5 overall, Clemson is sitting in about the same position,UNI and Drake are both 3-3 in conference.
other than the 1st 3 schools, all have a winning record.
if you have played 10 teams in the OOC that have a winning record it will only help the RPI and Pomer roy rankings
Cover3
Well-Known Member
8-4 is possible, and I'm always optimistic that the Hawks can pull out any game. I've also watched a lot of sports, and given what my viewing experience tells me, I feel like there might be a few too many people on here mentally chalking up our 6 games against PSU, NW, and NEB as wins already. I believe the Hawks can go 6-0 against those guys, but the odds that they do are very low, and they still need a few wins beyond that.
I'm not against the discussion, but there is quite a bit of season left, and although I believe in the Hawks, it's a long and bumpy road to get +4 games from being at .500 six games in. It's not a loser's mentality, it's just realizing that we're going to be playing twelve teams that can all beat us as well.
hawkeyebob62
Well-Known Member
Obviously, youth has robbed you of experience AND logic, not to mention wisdom.
An 18-win Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois (assuming, already, that Indiana, OSU, MSU, Purdue will be at 20+ with STRONG seasons, RPI, etc.) gets a better look than we do with same number of wins. We have too many "bad" losses to get in with 10-8/11-7 (18-13/19-12).
I am going on the basis that we don't win BTT. IF we finish 18 wins or better AND win 2 games in BTT, we may be one of those "last 4 in/last 4 out" teams. Or maybe even better.
Look at our 8-5 pre-B1G record. Can you honestly say there are ANY B1G wins that negate that? If we keep it up, yes, but 10 B1G wins is NOT enough without doing serious damage in BTT.
OTOH, who knows how many committee members might take the position that last 10 games, conference season, etc., are far more important than what a team does against Campbell three months earlier.
hawkeyebob62
Well-Known Member
Trust me, come selection time, all the talking heads will be right back on that ACC/Big East bandwagon.
How many times have we seen a Big East team win three conference tourney games, finish 18-15, and have half the ESPN staff salivating over them?
Right now, our "burden of proof" is a little more onerous than teams that have been in the tournament the past several years. Just the nature of the beast.
H8IAST8
Well-Known Member
Drake is top 100 rpi. That will help. Campbell is actually almost in the top 150
You need to stop with the overall win totals. If we go 11-7, in the strongest conference in the country we'll get in. We won't have to win a B10 tournament game, we'll be in.
The Big East was way overrated last year, and there has been a lot of talk about how down the Big East and ACC are this year. The B10 is the best conference now, and will be the best conference come selection time, it really isn't even that close this year.
which means we need to go 8 and 4 the rest of the way. if we can win at purdue it will be a realistic shot but if we lose there it will take a miracle finish
storminspank
Justin VanLaere
Top 100-150 don't do anything to help in regards to wins, they only hurt when it comes to losses.
For the most part, quality wins are Top 50 RPI wins. You also look at the Top 100 for good wins, but they don't hold as much weight as a Top 50 or Top 25. But I will use Top 100 for good wins just to appease everyone.
With that mind, let's look at Iowa current resume -
RPI - 105
POMEROY - 101
Neither of these rankings are high enough to even warrant looking at Iowa right now. With more wins, they can move up, but right now with that sort of numbers they aren't getting a sniff (this is due to playing a poor non-conf and not winning the majority of those games).
GOOD WINS - BAD LOSSES
Based on RPI
NON CONF -
Bad Losses: Campbell at home (157), Clemson at home (166)
Good Wins: Drake at home (97)
CONF -
Bad Losses: none
Good Wins: Wisconsin on the road (2), Minnesota on the road (45), Michigan at home (31)
3 really good wins in conf (esp two on the road), 1 very marginal non-conf win at home.
2 bad losses at home in the non-conf.
Personally I think the Drake win isn't a quality win, nor do I think the Clemson loss is a bad loss yet. They cancel each other out.
Based on Pomeroy Ratings:
NON CONF -
Bad Losses: Campbell at home (180)
Good Wins: none
CONF -
Bad Losses: none
Good Wins: Wisconsin on the road (55), Minnesota on the road (59), Michigan at home (35)
3 really good wins in conf (2 on the road) - 1 bad loss in a really poor non-conf schedule.
One thing to note, with Iowa's extremely difficult B1G schedule so far, their current SOS has skyrocketed to 55th in RPI, 91st on Pomeroy. Iowa's non-conf SOS was somewhere around 330th in the nation.
Also we are approaching the L10 games in the schedule, which could vault Iowa up if they can go 7-3ish during that span. 6-4 or less and then it will be nearly impossible without a small run in the BTT.
atomicblue224
Well-Known Member
hold on guys let get thru the season one game at a time. not every game is an automatic win.
DodgerHawki
Well-Known Member
It's two-fold
when you have ZERO, zero good non-conference wins and a bunch of non-competitive losses, it matters. It's not as if we lost heartbreakers to Creighton, ISU, UNI, Clemson and Campbell. They all handed us our collective arse. That DOES matter. Like others have said, Iowa would need to go something like 12-6 to even be looked at. The committee looks at teams individually. Even finishing 4th in the most difficult conference doesn't automatically get you in. The committee would see we play MSU, OSU, Indiana, Illinois only once.
I do hope Iowa keeps winning so that we can have this be a discussion.
when you have ZERO, zero good non-conference wins and a bunch of non-competitive losses, it matters. It's not as if we lost heartbreakers to Creighton, ISU, UNI, Clemson and Campbell. They all handed us our collective arse. That DOES matter. Like others have said, Iowa would need to go something like 12-6 to even be looked at. The committee looks at teams individually. Even finishing 4th in the most difficult conference doesn't automatically get you in. The committee would see we play MSU, OSU, Indiana, Illinois only once.
I do hope Iowa keeps winning so that we can have this be a discussion.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
Re: It's two-fold
The ISU game is not a bad loss as the final score does not show how badly they beat us but the rest I agree with. The UNI loss keeps looking worse and worse with every loss they suffer. You need to replace Indiana with Michigan for teams we only play once as we still have 2 games remaining against Indiana. Home games left against Minnesota and Wisconsin may still help depending how those teams do against the rest of the Big Ten. Otherwise I think you are right, it might take 12 wins in the Big Ten to even get on the bubble. The committee does look at how a team is playing down the stretch and a 9-3 finish will get attention. But asking this team to go 9-3 the rest of the way seems like a daunting task.
Are we going to see that team that comes out and cannot hit the broad side of a barn? If that team shows up even against Penn State or Nebraska you can count on a loss.
The ISU game is not a bad loss as the final score does not show how badly they beat us but the rest I agree with. The UNI loss keeps looking worse and worse with every loss they suffer. You need to replace Indiana with Michigan for teams we only play once as we still have 2 games remaining against Indiana. Home games left against Minnesota and Wisconsin may still help depending how those teams do against the rest of the Big Ten. Otherwise I think you are right, it might take 12 wins in the Big Ten to even get on the bubble. The committee does look at how a team is playing down the stretch and a 9-3 finish will get attention. But asking this team to go 9-3 the rest of the way seems like a daunting task.
Are we going to see that team that comes out and cannot hit the broad side of a barn? If that team shows up even against Penn State or Nebraska you can count on a loss.
H8IAST8
Well-Known Member
The committee looks at all wins and losses. Campbell will never help, but the severity of the loss is lessened by making it to the top 150 or top 100. The key is to have a winning record vs. the rpi top 100.
We are 3-5 vs. the top 50 not bad.
We are 4-6 vs. top 100, this is bad.
a 12-6 BT record will put Iowa at 4th or 5th
and a team 6 games over .500 in BT league play will never get passed over
and the committee looks at the whole season not just the OOC schedule plus they take injuries into account when looking at losses
as i pointed out before Marble had a concussion, Cartwright had a concussion and a hamstring injury, Basabe was over weight and out of shape, this played a big role in the teams lack of success
and a team 6 games over .500 in BT league play will never get passed over
and the committee looks at the whole season not just the OOC schedule plus they take injuries into account when looking at losses
as i pointed out before Marble had a concussion, Cartwright had a concussion and a hamstring injury, Basabe was over weight and out of shape, this played a big role in the teams lack of success
storminspank
Justin VanLaere
I think 10 is the bare minimum to be on the bubble, yes.
18 wins with such a poor non-conf really, really hurts Iowa, though. Their resume would be awfully similar to that of Illinois a few years ago. I'd think they'd need 1 or 2 to actually get to the dance. Plus a really good L10... say 8-2 or something.
