What's it going to take to dance?

babysteps_book_cover.jpg
 
This is what it takes to dance

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8S3OVzof8s]Mastering Dance - Footloose - YouTube[/ame]
 
WhitUp said:
11-7 in the big ten maybe? Win one in the big ten tourny, maybe two? Looking at our schedule it doesn't look impossible. What's the mark everyone think we would need to hit to be on the bubble?
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It's a nice thought...but it won't happen.

For you youngsters, where we sit right now is where a 6-5 or 7-4 Big 10 FB team would have sat pre-1974-1975: either in the Rose Bowl, or spending the holidays at home on break.

We need to have 20-21 wins, and I don't see it. That means 10-2 or 10-3 to finish? Sorry, it won't happen. If we finish with 17 or 18 wins, NIT is good possibility, 19 is STRONG NIT with outside shot at NCAA. Basically, with 18/19 wins, we need Clemson, ISU, UNI, Campbell and a few others to absolutely RUN the table in respective conferences. Anyone see he Hawks reaching 18/19 wins AND those other teams following through?

I DO think CBI, maybe even NIT, is reachable. NCAA? A year away at best, two more likely. Next year we lose Gatens and Cartwright, plus some supporting cast (Archie, Brommer, et. al.) While we won't "drop", we probably won't see big jump, either, at least in terms of "overall". Possible saving grace is that we rise WITHIN conference ranks, as Purdue, OSU (yes, Buckeye fans, Sullinger will leave), Wiscy and Illinois will, IMO, see drop-off greater than what we experience. But, Indiana, at a minimum, is rising as fast as we are, if not faster.
 
Iowa went 9-7 in the league and finished 5th in 2007,with no bid.
Iowa went 9-7 in the league,and finished 5th in 2005,with no bid.
So,yes, a winning record in the Big Ten is no guarantee of a bid.

To the question posed by the OP:

I think it will take at minimum a 11-7 record,with a win in the BTT,which would get Iowa to an overall record of 20-13. That might get us in.

Otherwise,probably need to go 12-8 and again,a win in the BTT to get to 21-12.

Can it be done...it is possible if Iowa wins the remaining 6 home games, and then steals road wins at maybe Neb and PSU...that would get to 11 wins. Might need to get another win on the road tho...NW,PU,IU or Illini? Very tough.

My expectations are that the Hawks can battle to get to between 7 and 9 wins in the league,which is a huge leap,and a great accomplishment that should land them in the picture for a postseason tourny of some ilk. ....
 
I'm not even thinking about NCAA Tournament at this point. But another good win yesterday, and the odds of Iowa winning 8-9 conference games looks more and more likely.

But if you were to put a gun to my head and force me to tell you what I think it would take to get a bid, I would say no less than 10-11 conference wins, and at least 1-2 wins in the BTT. The non-conference was just too ugly this year.

For now, I'm just enjoying the fact that Iowa is finally winning some conference games. That said, it looks like we stand a good shot at some sort of post-season play for the first time since 2006.
 
hawkeyebob62 said:
It's a nice thought...but it won't happen.

For you youngsters, where we sit right now is where a 6-5 or 7-4 Big 10 FB team would have sat pre-1974-1975: either in the Rose Bowl, or spending the holidays at home on break.

We need to have 20-21 wins, and I don't see it. That means 10-2 or 10-3 to finish? Sorry, it won't happen. If we finish with 17 or 18 wins, NIT is good possibility, 19 is STRONG NIT with outside shot at NCAA. Basically, with 18/19 wins, we need Clemson, ISU, UNI, Campbell and a few others to absolutely RUN the table in respective conferences. Anyone see he Hawks reaching 18/19 wins AND those other teams following through?

I DO think CBI, maybe even NIT, is reachable. NCAA? A year away at best, two more likely. Next year we lose Gatens and Cartwright, plus some supporting cast (Archie, Brommer, et. al.) While we won't "drop", we probably won't see big jump, either, at least in terms of "overall". Possible saving grace is that we rise WITHIN conference ranks, as Purdue, OSU (yes, Buckeye fans, Sullinger will leave), Wiscy and Illinois will, IMO, see drop-off greater than what we experience. But, Indiana, at a minimum, is rising as fast as we are, if not faster.
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This isn't the old days pops. 20 wins is no longer the magic number for getting into the NCAA tournament. The B10 is the best conference by every ranking system out there this year. If we go 11-7, and pick up two more high quality wins, in addition to the Wisconsin and Michigan wins we already have, we would be in the tournament.
 
The thing that has me excited is that Iowa really started to come on about February last season, and was a tough team to beat down the stretch.

Things have clicked a little sooner this season, with some big wins, including on the road, happening in January.

The way the schedule sets up, Iowa could gain a ton of additional confidence by winning a few more games against somewhat lesser competition. Couple that with the exponential improvement we saw Fran coax from the team in February and March last year, and you can imagine Iowa being a pretty salty team come conference tournament time this season. For the first time in years, Iowa at least has the potential to do some damage there.
 
I think it would take a near-impossible run to get to the dance.

Just because we won at Wisconsin doesn't mean we have even better than break-even odds of beating them at Carver. Game at Purdue will be tough. They will ALL be tough. Even if 11-7 will get us in the conversation, that would mean going 8-4 the rest of the way. I know the thread is not necessarily about expectations, but I'm in the camp that would rather not see a meltdown on here after we lose a couple more games.
 
JHHawk said:
Iowa went 9-7 in the league and finished 5th in 2007,with no bid.
Iowa went 9-7 in the league,and finished 5th in 2005,with no bid.
So,yes, a winning record in the Big Ten is no guarantee of a bid.

To the question posed by the OP:

I think it will take at minimum a 11-7 record,with a win in the BTT,which would get Iowa to an overall record of 20-13. That might get us in.

Otherwise,probably need to go 12-8 and again,a win in the BTT to get to 21-12.

Can it be done...it is possible if Iowa wins the remaining 6 home games, and then steals road wins at maybe Neb and PSU...that would get to 11 wins. Might need to get another win on the road tho...NW,PU,IU or Illini? Very tough.

My expectations are that the Hawks can battle to get to between 7 and 9 wins in the league,which is a huge leap,and a great accomplishment that should land them in the picture for a postseason tourny of some ilk. ....
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2007 9-7 conf. record and no bid
2005 7-9 conf. record and received bid
2004 9-7 conf. record and no bid
 
In all cases Iowa was "on the bubble" and the B1G was NOT the #1 conference in the country.
2007 we were 8-6 in the non conf. and 17-14 overall

Also in 2005, we won 2 games (#10 and #2 seed) in the BTT and lost by 3 points to the #3 seed. They also went 12-1 in the non-conference and finished the year 21-11.

2004 Iowa did go to the NIT with a 16-12 record and 7-3 non-conf.
 
Cover3 said:
I think it would take a near-impossible run to get to the dance.Just because we won at Wisconsin doesn't mean we have even better than break-even odds of beating them at Carver. Game at Purdue will be tough. They will ALL be tough. Even if 11-7 will get us in the conversation, that would mean going 8-4 the rest of the way. I know the thread is not necessarily about expectations, but I'm in the camp that would rather not see a meltdown on here after we lose a couple more games.
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if we lose a couple more games there will be a few people complaining like always but a meltdown is when most everyone is complaining. it will take a lot more then A couple loses for that to happen.

if we win at purdue our chances of making the tournament go up a ton but we would still only have about a 15 percent chance I would say. I think our fans need to learn how to win, myself included, about as much as our team does tho. going 3 and 3 during the hardest part of our schedule should make us think that the chances of going 8 and 4 with the rest of our schedule is pretty decent. instead we still have a losers mentality and think there is no way
 
HawkPrdatr40 said:
If we go 12-6, we are IN and winning 1 or 2 in tourny is maybe improving our seed. I can't believe a 12-6 Big Ten Team which would be no worse then 3rd or 4th in the #1 RPI Conference would be snubbed.
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Exactly. The B10 being the best conference in the country this year is a huge benefit to any B10 team on the bubble. Look at Big East teams like Marquette and Villanova, Marquette went .500 in the Big East and didn't have a single good ooc win last year and still made it in. Of course they didn't have the bad losses we have, but if we're 11-7 in the B10, we will be in the tournament.
 
HawkPrdatr40 said:
If we go 12-6, we are IN and winning 1 or 2 in tourny is maybe improving our seed. I can't believe a 12-6 Big Ten Team which would be no worse then 3rd or 4th in the #1 RPI Conference would be snubbed.
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Because the non-conf was brutal.
Not only was it one of the weakest in the nation, Iowa came out of it with just 8 wins and 5 losses. All the losses were to Top 100 KenPom teams expect for Campbell... however there isn't a single "good win" in the non-conf. If Iowa had at least went 8-5 in non-conf with a tough schedule, then things could be argued harder. I will need to go, minimum 11-7 in conf plus 1 or 2 in the BTT or get the 12 wins and 1. Somewhere around there.
 
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