What are Fair Expectations for Adam Woodbury?

Meyer looks like Brommer, in that they could put Brommer's picture next to Kyle Meyer's name and you wouldn't see much of a difference. I haven't seen him play, just seen him in Mayflower a few times.
 
There are only 200 total minutes each game to divide up. Just looking at the players we have coming back, plus assuming Mike Gesell starts, I don't see anyway that there are 20+ minutes for Woodbury. I say he averages probably 12-15mpg and avg's 3ppg and 3rpg.
 
I've seen Woodbury play 4 times in person. I'd say he is a cross between Brian Butch and Greg Steimsma and you could expect his stats to progress similarly.

Neither Butch or Stiemsma were "stars" but they were pretty darn good.
 
Woodbury is more athletic than Butch and less athletic than Stiemsma. That means nothing though as Butch had the better UW career. Stiemsma did just get tendered by the Boston Celtics though.
 
I don't think he averages more than 3 points are 3 rebounds per game. reiner put up 3 and 3 a game as a freshman and I think adam will struggle to do that. I don't think jared was as skilled as adam is but he was much more gifted athletically and more developed physically.
 
Somewhere around 4 points and 3-4 rebounds a game. Without question, I do not believe that all of the nauseating "hype" will be met with productivity on the floor. There have been plenty of 7 ft "projects" in the past (college and pros) that got a huge benefit of the doubt purely because of their size. My sense is he is close to being one of those players / projects. I realize the PTL is not the best measuring stick and I realize it has only been 4 games, however, Woodbury is only shooting 40% from the field and 25%s from the line at this point. I expected a bit more given all of the expectations / hype that came along with his commitment to Iowa. None the less, given the fact he indeed is 7 ft, I'm hoping that fact alone will improve our interior defense as well as help open up outside shots on offense given it would appear the strongest part of his game is kicking / passing the ball out of the post. At this point, I really hope Gabe gets minutes over Woodbury as he deserves them in my mind.

And I agree. Bring back HERBY!!!
 
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The best possible is 15 minutes 6 points, 3 rebounds, .5 blocks and .5 assists. If Adam can do that and the Big O can do something similar albiet 1 BLOCK and .1 assist the Hawkeyes will be dancing in March.

More likely is 1/2 the minutes and production for both of these true centers.

Zach and Mel will still need to make up the minutes.

The future is unwritten and is very bright for AW and the Big O.
 
JonDMiller said:
Adam Woodbury comes to Iowa as one of the highest rated centers in the nation last year. ESPN rated him as the 10th best center in the country and 39th best player overall.

Those are lofty accolades and when one is 7-1, big expectations seem to follow big frames. However, I think some are prematurely believing that he is going to be some sort of savior for this program in 2012-2013. I write this based on some fan posts and reactions from Prime Time League observations I have seen on this site and elsewhere.

Let's take a look at the recently concluded NBA draft and the centers who were selected. We'll shed light on how they played as true freshman.

Andre Drummond, UCONN: 10pp/7rpg/2.7bpg. That's a great stat line for a freshman and Drummond was one and done and the first center taken in the 2012 draft.

Meyers Leonard, Illinois: 2ppg/1rpg/8minutes per game: Leonard had a very good sophomore season this past year which prompted him to leave school early. That decision was rewarded with his being selected as the 11th pick of the first round. However, things were not always wine and roses for the 7-1 big man, as his freshman stats illustrate. Two points per game, one rebound per game and less than ten minutes per game. In year two, his averages shot up to 13/8, while playing over 31 minutes per game.

Tyler Zeller, UNC: 3.1/2.0/7.8 minutes per game. Zeller was the 17th pick in this year's draft by the Dallas Mavericks and had a solid four-year career for the Tar Heels. But as a freshman, he did not look so good. As a sophomore, his averages jumped up to 9.3/4.6 in over 17 minutes per game and as a junior and senior he was around 16/7 to 16/10. Again, his freshman season was a big learning experience both on the court and in the weight room.

Fab Melo, Syracuse: 2.3/1.9/9.9 minutes per game. Another learning season as a freshman as Melo didn't play all that much and didn't stuff the stat sheet. As a soph he jumped to 7.8ppg/5.8rpg but a blistering 2.9 blocks per game which was good enough for him to leave school and get selected as the 22nd overall pick in this year's draft.

Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt: 3.8/2.6/12.4 minutes per game. Ezeli was the last pick in this year's first round and a four-year college player. His numbers for his first AND second years were similar, then he had break out years the final two years.

While this is not scientific and all players are not created equally, these are five players who are now millionaires and in four of the five instances the players struggled as freshmen. Or rather, they didn't put up big numbers as freshmen.

The toughest position to 'learn the ropes' at the highest levels of college basketball is center. The learning curve for most players is steep and there are few exceptions. Those who are the exceptions wind up going pro after a year or two. Cody Zeller of Indiana could have turned pro this past spring and would have been a lottery pick and the same could likely have been said for Jared Sullinger of Ohio State if he would have gone pro after his freshman season. At the least, he would have been a first round pick.

I don't believe Adam Woodbury will have seasons like that. I think his freshman season will be more along the lines of four of the five players listed above; 10 or so minutes per game plus or minus one or two...three to four points per game and a rebound or two, on the season average. He hasn't shown shot blocking prowess at the high school level so I don't expect it on the college level, either...or at least not right away.

If that is how it plays out, don't get down on the kid; that road is far more traveled than the breakout freshman star center road.

That said, I do have much higher expectations for Mike Gesell. We'll talk about that tomorrow.
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You simply can't compare stats for ANY of those guys to Woodbury. Your comparing a true freshmen big coming in and playing at UNC, Syracuse, UCONN, Vandy, and Illinois versus coming in and playing at Iowa. There is a big difference.

I'm going to guess 5.5 points, 3 rebounds in 17 minutes.
 
Cyclones17 said:
You simply can't compare stats for ANY of those guys to Woodbury. Your comparing a true freshmen big coming in and playing at UNC, Syracuse, UCONN, Vandy, and Illinois versus coming in and playing at Iowa. There is a big difference.

I'm going to guess 5.5 points, 3 rebounds in 17 minutes.
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Before you make statements like you just made, you really need to explain yourself. Explain how the BIG is any less than the conferences UNC, Syracuse, UCONN, etc play in? Maybe non-conference schedules, but cmon...the BIG is as good as it gets so the comparison is more than reasonable.
 
BasketballMan said:
Before you make statements like you just made, you really need to explain yourself. Explain how the BIG is any less than the conferences UNC, Syracuse, UCONN, etc play in? Maybe non-conference schedules, but cmon...the BIG is as good as it gets so the comparison is more than reasonable.
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That wasn't my point at all.

Tyler Zeller came onto a NCAA champion team at UNC and was backing up Tyler Hansborough and Ed Davis.

Myers Leonard came in and Illinois had 2 senior big men with experience

Syracuse was coming off a #1 seed and had a pretty solid team returning

Vanderbilt had that big center Ogilvy and Jeff Taylor playing down low

UCONN was loaded with talent returning from the NCAA title team and Alex Oriakhi was back.

Adam Woodbury doesn't have anybody in front of him that has the experience or talent that those teams did. He's not fighting Tyler Hansborough for PT or guys that have 4 years experience playing D1 ball
 
i think points will top out at 4...probably more like 3 per game. rebounds i think he will surprise as he uses his body well and has height i could see upwards of 6+ a game...probably closer to 5. so i think he could have a top end possibility of 4 ppg and 6.5 rpg but i think 3 ppg and 5 rpg is more reasonable.
 
12-15 mins a game 4-6 pts 3-5 rbs. and a block a game. with at least 3 fouls a game. Depending on matchups i don't think he'll play much. I see Meyer redshirting barring injuries to any of the front court guys. The key to this team is the versatility of it. Run and gun will be the number one option but in half court we'll have some mismatches to exploit with just about any other team we play.
 
I don't expect much out of Woodbury, especially early. Maybe PTL will help speed up his progress going against guys like Cole, and GO so often.
 
Hawkfnntn said:
12-15 mins a game 4-6 pts 3-5 rbs. and a block a game. with at least 3 fouls a game. Depending on matchups i don't think he'll play much. I see Meyer redshirting barring injuries to any of the front court guys. The key to this team is the versatility of it. Run and gun will be the number one option but in half court we'll have some mismatches to exploit with just about any other team we play.
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i dont understand why people keep throwing up significant block numbers. hes not a shot blocker period.
 
DuffMan said:
jared was much more gifted athletically and more developed physically.
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WHAT?

Ill give you he was thicker and stronger but JR was about as unathletic as you can get. Dude could just barely dunk at 6'11.

Woodbury can't jump either but he is much more mobile horizontally, (have you seen him hedge on screens and recover?)hes quicker and allot faster end to end.

Maybe you're thinking of Sonderliter? he was allot more athletic than Rhiner.

Rhiner was quite a bit more of a project than Woodbury IMO, all Woody really needs is to add strength specifically to his lower body.
 
Cyclones17 said:
That wasn't my point at all.

Tyler Zeller came onto a NCAA champion team at UNC and was backing up Tyler Hansborough and Ed Davis.

Myers Leonard came in and Illinois had 2 senior big men with experience

Syracuse was coming off a #1 seed and had a pretty solid team returning

Vanderbilt had that big center Ogilvy and Jeff Taylor playing down low

UCONN was loaded with talent returning from the NCAA title team and Alex Oriakhi was back.

Adam Woodbury doesn't have anybody in front of him that has the experience or talent that those teams did. He's not fighting Tyler Hansborough for PT or guys that have 4 years experience playing D1 ball
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Great point. Iowa has nothing for returning experience at the center position.

McCabe is an undersized 4.
 
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