Ukraine War Update

PCHawk said:
I'm not sure why that's funny.
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There is a propaganda technique in wide use that is copied by many left leaning people wherein the media will present an idea that was not advanced by the Inner Party and then they ridicule it. The notion of ridicule is then reinforced by audience applause. As an absurd example, a host will say something like "House Republicans are attempting to block Democrats' attempts to ban diesel fuel and save the Earth. Can you guys believe it? Republicans are PRO DIESEL FUEL!" Then the host puts on a clown face, maybe barks like a seal, the audience responds in kind. The technique became widespread from The Daily Show and is now basically the format of all evening talk shows that have audiences.

For many issues there is no substantive analysis, it is just "LOL." It's a helluva way to try to create group conformity.
 
Russia has succeeded in destroying about 1/3 of the Ukrainian electric supply. This will put a load on Ukraine staying warm as well as west Europe.

The battle of Kherson is taking shape. The Russian's have dug in and doing what they do well. Dug in and defending. Ukrainian casualties are mounting on the offensive and are not likely sustainable. The Russians have a problem in that getting across the Dneiper River for both troops and supplies is very difficult. This is the heart (especially in occupied territory to the east) of ag production. My farmer friends to the north have had a decent year of production. Farm operations continue east of Kherson but is challenging with a war going on. More and more reports that "contractors" are manning the new longer-range artillery systems for the Ukrainians or at least are directing them.

US policy is interesting. Cuba is considered a terrorist state, but the Biden Administration still has not given that status to Russia. One place hit by drone attack in Kyiv was the SBU headquarters. Got myself in trouble a bit once by taking a picture of the building.

Russia is terrorizing the civilian population. That said, there typically is a military rhyme and reason for what they do.

Kyiv is not very far from the Belarus border. The Poles are getting nervous about it, though there is nothing yet to suggest a joint attack from the north on Kyiv is imminent.

The cultures of Ukraine and Russia are vastly different from the west. Some of the things they do as a culture and militarily seem stupid to the West. Frankly, there is an element of Boris and Natasha from Rocky and Bullwinkel (Moose and Squirrel). But as you are analyzing this the culture there on both sides is very very practical and resource efficient. It is very difficult for Americans to figure out what they are thinking and what is going on. There are clashes between US advisors on the ground and Ukrainian Army leaders. The West always wins battles against Soviet tactics and weapons....But oft does lose the war against a dug-in enemy with an incredible ability to survive adversity. Not making any predictions, but suggest keeping that in mind as Europe goes cold and inflation continues to hit American pocketbooks.
 
Fryowa said:
Source for that?
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People I know on the ground. Much better source than my boss knows a guy.

You certainly don't think we are giving shotguns to children and saying here go get some rabbits....

Sort of like when there was a ban on US providing weapons to Ukraine in Donbas and the US 101 was training AZOV with Nazi shoulder patches and "accidentally" leaving training weapons behind. Again it wasn't my boss' brother's friend.

In 2015 the Battle of Debaltseve is a case in point and is well documented. US advisors on the ground cautioned Ukrainian leaders from driving into the heart of an area of Donesk with unprotected flanks. The result was that Russian paratroopers stationed over the border supported by armor flanked and surrounded the Ukrainians. Russia offered a safe corridor out.... and they slaughtered the Ukrainians trying to escape.

American's on the ground consider the Ukrainians as good soldiers, but crazy and take unnecessary risks.
It is very hard to get any info out of Ukraine right now. Two of my better friends are former Soviet/Ukrainian Lt. Colonels.

The Ukrainians prefer the British for combat advice. The Germans for technology and the Americans for logistics (best in the world by far).

Again, take it or leave it.

Ukrainians in general want to believe the Budapest Memorandum was a legally binding treaty which it is not. They are becoming very weary and are much more scared now than early on. They understand the Russian mindset far more than Americans do. Most I know don't believe they are going to wipe out the Russians from Ukraine and everybody lives happily ever after.



Take it or leave it. It's up to you.
 
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HawkGold said:
People I know on the ground. Much better source than my boss knows a guy.

You certainly don't think we are giving shotguns to children and saying here go get some rabbits....

Sort of like when there was a ban on US providing weapons to Ukraine in Donbas and the US 101 was training AZOV with Nazi shoulder patches and "accidentally" leaving training weapons behind. Again it wasn't my boss' brother's friend.

In 2015 the Battle of Debaltseve is a case in point and is well documented. US advisors on the ground cautioned Ukrainian leaders from driving into the heart of an area of Donesk with unprotected flanks. The result was that Russian paratroopers stationed over the border supported by armor flanked and surrounded the Ukrainians. Russia offered a safe corridor out.... and they slaughtered the Ukrainians trying to escape.

American's on the ground consider the Ukrainians as good soldiers, but crazy and take unnecessary risks.
It is very hard to get any info out of Ukraine right now. Two of my better friends are former Soviet/Ukrainian Lt. Colonels.

The Ukrainians prefer the British for combat advice. The Germans for technology and the Americans for logistics (best in the world by far).

Again, take it or leave it.

Ukrainians in general want to believe the Budapest Memorandum was a legally binding treaty which it is not. They are becoming very weary and are much more scared now than early on. They understand the Russian mindset far more than Americans do. Most I know don't believe they are going to wipe out the Russians from Ukraine and everybody lives happily ever after.



Take it or leave it. It's up to you.
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Would‘ve been easier just to say you don’t have a source that’s independently verifiable. That’s all I was asking.

One of the first dead giveaways that someone is fibbing is when you ask them for a simple verification and they give you a long, detailed (also unverifiable) answer.

Might be more accurate to rename this post, “HawkGold’s Opinion On The 2022 Russo-Ukraine Conflict.”
 
Fryowa said:
Would‘ve been easier just to say you don’t have a source that’s independently verifiable. That’s all I was asking.

One of the first dead giveaways that someone is fibbing is when you ask them for a simple verification and they give you a long, detailed (also unverifiable) answer.

Might be more accurate to rename this post, “HawkGold’s Opinion On The 2022 Russo-Ukraine Conflict.”
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Ok, what ever. Fibbing? Hardly. Do I have a CNN source? Of course not. Do I know people that were in the 101... yes I do.

Fair enough on the title. Just curious, who do you use as credible sources?

Maybe each thread you start or comment you make should have a disclaimer on it? Btw, you are a classic narcissistic gas lighter. You'll have fun with that.

I'm also a published author that had the number one seller for a particular year from the world's largest military press. I do happen to have a lot of experience in Ukraine and a lot of knowledge of military dynamics.

As far as I know you haven't coached or played at the P5 level. You umpire HS and coach below HS. You also have interpersonal skills deficiencies (so do I!) and you try and moderate a P5-level message board (at times not badly), start posts about a world you know little about and after you dis the Hawk program you clobber those who are frustrated at the situation.

Sums it up.

As said, take my post or leave it and let the readers decide.

We are in a perilous time and the situation is more than:
Ukraine, US, NATO totally good guys and Putin/Russia totally bad.

Would have been nice if more of us understood Iraq better before we left a half a million dead.

I'm providing my opinions as someone who has more understanding than most. For example, most I run into ask why Kiev became Kyiv or why the Dneiper or Dnipro River are at the heart of why we are in this situation.

Right now I'm talking to a farmer about delivering grain to Odesa from east of the Dnipro.

If you understood the culture you would have a clue on who I actually support based on the names I typically use though at times I use the other more well known versions.
 
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Fryowa said:
There. Finally. Thank you.
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Given we never came to terms about the hospital, which one of us do you think is going to be more right about the Hawks this year. I don't think I ever have posted something like that before. In 14 I never guessed 15 would happen though so I might have had a low bar then.

Never underestimate or overestimate KF. Don't overestimate or underestimate Putin, Russia, or Ukraine.
 
PCHawk said:
I'm not sure why that's funny.
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It's funny because she's not credible to many. She has made numerous statements that are head scratchers, or outright false statements.

This year, she said that the russian media had the same level of freedom as American media. Maybe that plays well to a certain fanbase, if you will, but it's not true.

This is one of many odd, untrue, or just weird comments. Makes sense that she's on Rogan and subbing for the little crap on FOX "news".
 
racerhawk said:
It's funny because she's not credible to many. She has made numerous statements that are head scratchers, or outright false statements.

This year, she said that the russian media had the same level of freedom as American media. Maybe that plays well to a certain fanbase, if you will, but it's not true.

This is one of many odd, untrue, or just weird comments. Makes sense that she's on Rogan and subbing for the little crap on FOX "news".
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Pretty much everyone decides what's true or not based on who says it. If the media just did blind quotes without saying who said it, we would all be scratching our heads trying to figure out if it's true or not.

I'm of course the exception to that rule. I sniff out bullshit equally on both sides.
 
PCHawk said:
Pretty much everyone decides what's true or not based on who says it. If the media just did blind quotes without saying who said it, we would all be scratching our heads trying to figure out if it's true or not.

I'm of course the exception to that rule. I sniff out bullshit equally on both sides.
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What did I miss? Who is She?

In re to Ukraine, there is BS on both sides. Lots of it.
 
HawkGold said:
What did I miss? Who is She?

In re to Ukraine, there is BS on both sides. Lots of it.
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I LOL'd Tulsi Gabbard and some folks got their panties in a bunch. Independent of party (she's been both) I find her to be full of BS. She fits right in with our current political process.

With regard to Ukraine... what book did you write? Interesting.
 
HawkGold said:
I can tell you that the intense fear they had at the start and during the earlier months is now surpassed by the terror of how things are now. They don't know what or who to believe, which of course includes their own government in which they have no faith or trust.

Ukraine is the 2nd poorest country in Europe, behind only Moldova. On the news you can see some nice cars, but things aren't as nice as they seem. Rural areas are particularly impoverished and Donbas is about the worst area in the country. It's really hard for people to get ahead in Ukraine due to a lack of jobs and the mafia issues. I know of a business that burnt to the ground right next door to the fire station as the mafia sent word not to intervene. Farmers get arrested for no real good reason so the large farming operations can take over the land. Running for office can get you arrested or harassed by auditors.

Rural areas are particularly poor. Men are drunk. Women work hard and try and feed the kids. The life span of males though improving dropped from about US levels under the Soviets to low 50s. I spent quite a bit of time in Kyiv (Kiev is Russian), but most time in rural areas. Human trafficking is a huge business and girls are offered as either with hips or no hips implying age and how used/abused. Young people are desperate to learn English as a way out of poverty and out of the country.

As mentioned, I was in Kyiv during massive demonstrations. I got stuck in traffic where there was a confrontation between the various groups, but that ended peacefully. That night I grabbed my camera and took pictures of the demonstrations on the Maidan. Talking to participants they didn't care about politics. They were being paid 60 USD per day to march, protest, and carry signs. They indicated the money was coming from the US and Russia.

The war is basically about control of a mafia state (Ukriane) with the west and another mafia state (Russia competing against each other. Neither side cares about the people. For Russia it's about maintaining gas/oil exports to west Europe (1/3 of the Russian economy) and keeping it's frontier (borders) clear of NATO. NATO has changed and is now dominated by US/Britain and for East European nations. Thus you see the split with a luke warm response from Germany and no real response from other long term NATO countries. To understand Russia's border paranoia, look at history as well as what happened in the Balkan's in the 90s. I more believe our own narrative, but the Balkan War was quite complicated.

What has happened is that the East Euro Nato members wanted to upgrade their weapons systems from old Soviet equipment and aircraft to more modern western systems and 4th Gen fighters. So they donated the old weapons to Ukraine and the west provided new weapons. Look at what has happened to Lockheed Martin stocks at the beginning of the war.

I don't know everything about Ukraine, but I do know that what we are provided for news isn't very accurate. I'm a bit skewed as the 40 yo wife of a friend sprinted out of her office and got 8 blocks away before a missile hit. A farmer friend had 2 missiles shot down over his house. One family that I am close to first knew of war when missiles hit in Kyiv a short distance away. Another guy hasn't heard from his son in law who was a civilian in Irpin since late February. Another harbors refugees from Donbas and Mariupol where they are traumatized with the women and children being totally despondent and were used by human shields by Ukraine's AZOV Battalion as they were trying to escape Mariupol. Yesterday in the US news was talking about fresh Ukrainian troops wearing the Right Sector patches. I can read Russian and new what there were. Right Sector and AZOV terrorize many Ukrainians which are Russian speaking (which is where I spent most of my time in Russian speaking areas. These people aren't pro Russia at all. For sure not pro Putin.
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Interesting stuff. Do you speak Russian?
 
MelroseHawkins said:
We once had a student at the U work for us for some time. She was a Russian major and said it is one of the most difficult languages to learn.
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I can read a bit more than I can speak. I can get around, but can't think on my feet at all with it.
Ukraine is hard due to Ukrainian and Russian being used. In Kyiv, I can say something in Russian and they'll just look at me sometimes.

The language is basically a combo of Roman alpha (about 1/3) Hebrewish (1/3 and their own kind of weird made up symbols. Some of the English looking letters have a different pronunciation from a little bit to a lot. They when speaking really simplify things.

Where we might say, I am going to the store". They readily say, I go store, store go I or go store or store go. Not exactly, but makes the point. They don't use "the". That's why Russians/Ukrainians speaking English generally don't use it. The letter J is almost impossible for them. They have a letter looks like a weird star or spider that is close but like djga or something like that in sound.

If you want to piss off a Ukrainian, say "the Ukraine". First, "the" isn't used and Russians use it as an insult similar to a racial slur. Russian's naturally look down on Ukrainians as lower (in a lot of cases).

Reading the culture is almost impossible for Americans. In Ukraine, you can spot Americans (and Germans) a mile away in a crowd.

I don't think it's that hard of a language like Chinese. English isn't easy for Ukrainians/Russians. When I've been there they want to use English to get better at it as it's a way out of poverty.

до свидания

do svedania - good bye!
 
Finnish authorities reporting western weapons shipped to Ukraine have ended up in Finnish criminal gangs hands. Fry you can look it up.
 
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