Ukraine War Update

[MelroseHawkins]

When does Putin start to feel threatened and resort to nuclear missiles? Is it if NATO declares.

Russia is absolutely destroying a country thew will have to rebuild. Doesn't make sense.

 

[HawkGold]

I'm not sure why that's funny.

You should listen.

 

[HawkGold]

When does Putin start to feel threatened and resort to nuclear missiles? Is it if NATO declares.

Russia is absolutely destroying a country thew will have to rebuild. Doesn't make sense.

It does make sense in the Big picture. The west went for the jugular by trying to develop Donbas resources. That would destroy Russia alone when a third of your economy collapses.


Russia has been devastated so many times.
They could never defend their prairies to Moscow and said back the hell away. Didn't happen. Russia wins wars by wearing down enemies. BTW they have made big gains in rebuilding Mariuople.

There is a reason the west is sending tanks. The fighting around Bakhmut has been devastating to both sides. Ukraine is in trouble at the moment...seriously.

 

[HawkGold]

Horrible. My dad's buddy who got drafted and forced to go to Vietnam was the most red pilled guy I have ever met. Dude came to our house to watch Radio Bikini when it debuted on PBS back in 1988 and he was pissed off because that Bikini Atoll nuclear test was even worse than spraying the troops with Agent Orange. The number of people under 50 who know anything about how our troops get treated by our own government is dangerously low. By the way, have they ever figured out precisely what caused "Gulf War Syndrome" after our 1991 excursion in Kuwait?

I don't want to lose a single drop of American blood over a piece of land in a foreign country. I ain't signing up for a war against Russia or China. No freaking way.

GWS = depleted uranium.

 

[HawkGold]

US sending 60+ Bradley's to Ukraine. They did very well against Soviet type armor in Persian Gulf

 

[HawkGold]

Ukraine update Feb 8, 2023. HG thoughts.

The next 6 weeks will tell a lot. The Ukrainians are trying to hold off the Russians (Wagner Group and Chechyns) until Bradleys Leopards, and Abrams arrive (and maybe F16s). The Russians are pounding, pounding, and pounding trying to break things free before then. The Russians have lost huge amounts of soldiers and the Ukrainians are now not far behind. Graves of soldiers are getting numerous across Ukraine having a huge impact on people. There are doubts the Ukrainians can hold on. Doubts about the Russians as well. Ukraine just this week hit deep into Russia not far from Moscow.

Watch for news from these places.

Bakhmut/Soledar (W of Luhansk)
Vuhledar (SW of Donyetsk)
Zaporhizhia (N of Crimea)
East Bank of Dnipro (east of Kherson N of Crimea)

The battles there are WW2 type. Tanks, artillery, human waves. Russia is rolling the dice on these locations and are trying to route the Ukrainians in a hurry (which can happen).

These cities are vital to both sides.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Ukraine update Feb 8, 2023. HG thoughts.

The next 6 weeks will tell a lot. The Ukrainians are trying to hold off the Russians (Wagner Group and Chechyns) until Bradleys Leopards, and Abrams arrive (and maybe F16s). The Russians are pounding, pounding, and pounding trying to break things free before then. The Russians have lost huge amounts of soldiers and the Ukrainians are now not far behind. Graves of soldiers are getting numerous across Ukraine having a huge impact on people. There are doubts the Ukrainians can hold on. Doubts about the Russians as well. Ukraine just this week hit deep into Russia not far from Moscow.

Watch for news from these places.

Bakhmut/Soledar (W of Luhansk)
Vuhledar (SW of Donyetsk)
Zaporhizhia (N of Crimea)
East Bank of Dnipro (east of Kherson N of Crimea)

The battles there are WW2 type. Tanks, artillery, human waves. Russia is rolling the dice on these locations and are trying to route the Ukrainians in a hurry (which can happen).

These cities are vital to both sides.

Are you saying that Ukraine is in Russia invading in Russia?

 

[HawkGold]

Are you saying that Ukraine is in Russia invading in Russia?

No a drone or missile attack. They have done helicopter attacks with troops but not this time.

 

[HawkGold]

Ukraine War
the map below shows where Russian pressure is coming from. From the lower left,

1. concerns about a recrossing of the Dnipro River west towards Odesa and cutting off the port. This one I doubt at this time.

2. Moving right and up, Zaporihsia. The Russians have control of the Nuke Power Plant. Lots of fighting and reports of Ukrainian artillery hitting the plant. Both sides could use this as a pawn or worse.

3. West of Donyetsk. Big city, with lots of bitter fighting there since 2013.

4. West of Lughansk. Site of the most bitter fighting in the past months. Ukraine is in trouble here and barely holding on to Bakhmut which likely will fall.

The big fight has already begun. In true Soviet-type fashion, the Russians are slowly building up pressure to wear down the enemy. Ukraine is doggedly holding on especially west of Lughansk. Russia is feigning an attack further north at Kharkiv, but I think it is only a diversion.

 

[DrKnipe]

Ukraine War
the map below shows where Russian pressure is coming from. From the lower left,

1. concerns about a recrossing of the Dnipro River west towards Odesa and cutting off the port. This one I doubt at this time.

2. Moving right and up, Zaporihsia. The Russians have control of the Nuke Power Plant. Lots of fighting and reports of Ukrainian artillery hitting the plant. Both sides could use this as a pawn or worse.

3. West of Donyetsk. Big city, with lots of bitter fighting there since 2013.

4. West of Lughansk. Site of the most bitter fighting in the past months. Ukraine is in trouble here and barely holding on to Bakhmut which likely will fall.

The big fight has already begun. In true Soviet-type fashion, the Russians are slowly building up pressure to wear down the enemy. Ukraine is doggedly holding on especially west of Lughansk. Russia is feigning an attack further north at Kharkiv, but I think it is only a diversion.
View attachment 9848

Spot on! Russia is building something!

 

[thedukeofearl]

Meanwhile in Ukraine

 

[HawkGold]

Meanwhile in Ukraine

View attachment 9856

The war has really bogged down. Like what happened in Holland in WW2 with German bodies stacking up near Opheusden, the Russians are dying by the thousands and the bodies are left in the trenches. Russia is gradually gaining at great cost. Ukraine is running low on ammo and Russia is spending men like crazy. It's just insane in a modern world.

Well actually were the war is being fought is not very modern. There are still thatched roof houses and dirt floors. Still people in harms way don't have places to really go and don't want to lose what they have which isn't much. They don't have the economy in good times to rebuild. In one city the UA Govt is pleading for civilians to leave and they won't.

The US and Russia at war until the last Ukrainian is standing.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

The war has really bogged down. Like what happened in Holland in WW2 with German bodies stacking up near Opheusden, the Russians are dying by the thousands and the bodies are left in the trenches. Russia is gradually gaining at great cost. Ukraine is running low on ammo and Russia is spending men like crazy. It's just insane in a modern world.

Well actually were the war is being fought is not very modern. There are still thatched roof houses and dirt floors. Still people in harms way don't have places to really go and don't want to lose what they have which isn't much. They don't have the economy in good times to rebuild. In one city the UA Govt is pleading for civilians to leave and they won't.

The US and Russia at war until the last Ukrainian is standing.

Is this what they call a proxy war?

 

[HawkGold]

Is this what they call a proxy war?

Yes

 

[thedukeofearl]

​

How the War in Ukraine Ends​ An eminent historian envisions a settlement among Russia, Ukraine, and the West. Illustration by Tomasz Woźniakowski In the weeks after Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, the historian Stephen Kotkin told David Remnick that “Ukraine is winning this war only on Twitter, not on the battlefield.” Now, nearly a year later—following a series of reversals, humiliations, and examples of military ineptitude on the part of the Russians—there appears to be more reason for optimism. But, in a new conversation, part of our Interviews Issue, Kotkin argues that his initial assessment still holds. He has been pleasantly surprised by the Ukrainians’ resolve, the solidarity among Western allies, and Putin’s own substantial failures, but the basic elements of the crisis have not changed: Russia is like a clumsy but ruthless home invader who is squatting in a corner of a house and wrecking the rest. “Putin’s strategy,” he explains, “could be described as ‘I can’t have it? Nobody can have it!’ Sadly, that’s where the tragedy is right now.” In a clear-eyed and wide-ranging discussion, Remnick and Kotkin consider what will be needed to move the conflict closer to a resolution—and what a better future for the Ukrainian and Russian people might look like. Stephen Kotkin​

 

[HawkGold]

​ ​

​ ​ How the War in Ukraine Ends​ An eminent historian envisions a settlement among Russia, Ukraine, and the West. Illustration by Tomasz Woźniakowski In the weeks after Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, the historian Stephen Kotkin told David Remnick that “Ukraine is winning this war only on Twitter, not on the battlefield.” Now, nearly a year later—following a series of reversals, humiliations, and examples of military ineptitude on the part of the Russians—there appears to be more reason for optimism. But, in a new conversation, part of our Interviews Issue, Kotkin argues that his initial assessment still holds. He has been pleasantly surprised by the Ukrainians’ resolve, the solidarity among Western allies, and Putin’s own substantial failures, but the basic elements of the crisis have not changed: Russia is like a clumsy but ruthless home invader who is squatting in a corner of a house and wrecking the rest. “Putin’s strategy,” he explains, “could be described as ‘I can’t have it? Nobody can have it!’ Sadly, that’s where the tragedy is right now.” In a clear-eyed and wide-ranging discussion, Remnick and Kotkin consider what will be needed to move the conflict closer to a resolution—and what a better future for the Ukrainian and Russian people might look like. Stephen Kotkin​

Interesting perspective.

 

[HawkGold]

Recent developments.

The Battle for Bakhmut will go down in history like Mariupol in terms of casualties. Civilian deaths will be less, but atrocities already coming out against the elderly, women, and children. Minimum of 25k civilians were killed in Mariupol. The Russians are going to win or die here. If they break the Ukrainian lines, two bigger cities will quickly fall. Prewar Bakhmut was like 25k citizens. The Russians have nearly surrounded the city, but can't yet close it. Russians like to wear down opponents. Will be interesting who will wear out first.

Russia is now threatening Moldova. Unknown to most Americans, Moldova had an eastern province occupied by Russian troops years ago. The province is named Transnistria. The Russians refer to it as another breakaway republic. Transnistria is in between unoccupied Moldova and SW Ukraine. This threat is actually pretty serious. Russia can use Moldova as a way to put extreme pressure on the port of Odesa in Ukraine. Most of Ukraine's trade and grain moves through Odesa on the Black Sea which ties to the Mediterranean. This would impact Africa and the Middle East. Moldova has no real military. The nation has Russians and Ukrainians as minorities but Russia wants to protect Russian in the Transnitrea supposedly. The nation is largely Romanian in ethnicity.

The other concern is that Russia is talking about taking over Belarus on the north. Belarus has been dominated by Russia for some time. It is poorer than Ukraine, but not as bad as Moldova. Ukraine is quite poor. Likely Belarussians to some degree would put up an insurgency against Russia but not try to officially stop them. This move if it happens is what makes Poland, Finland, Sweden, and the Baltics particularly nervous.

Putin has stepped up his rhetoric of saying the US is trying to destroy Russian. My opinion... this war is about oil and moving NATO east. Not much more. China is appearing to buy into this and is now looking into promising security to Russia. Russia has engaged most of it's non nuke military in Ukraine and when Ukraine is now talking about moving tanks to threaten Moscow, they may not be kidding. Not much could stand in the way if Russia is militarily depleted.

What is China's beef? China needs Russian oil. Like Japan in early WW2, they will/may take steps to ensure not being dependent on US influenced oil. Watch and observe folks.

 

[Hawks319]

This is all a conspiracy theory. Neither Joe nor Hunter Biden has ever had any business dealings in Ukraine. I don't think a Biden had even ever said the word "Ukraine" until Putin began waging his illegal war there. Whatever sources you are getting your information from are purely disinformation and to know what is really going on you need to watch CNN.

We conspiracy theorists have had a pretty good couple of years

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Recent developments.

The Battle for Bakhmut will go down in history like Mariupol in terms of casualties. Civilian deaths will be less, but atrocities already coming out against the elderly, women, and children. Minimum of 25k civilians were killed in Mariupol. The Russians are going to win or die here. If they break the Ukrainian lines, two bigger cities will quickly fall. Prewar Bakhmut was like 25k citizens. The Russians have nearly surrounded the city, but can't yet close it. Russians like to wear down opponents. Will be interesting who will wear out first.

Russia is now threatening Moldova. Unknown to most Americans, Moldova had an eastern province occupied by Russian troops years ago. The province is named Transnistria. The Russians refer to it as another breakaway republic. Transnistria is in between unoccupied Moldova and SW Ukraine. This threat is actually pretty serious. Russia can use Moldova as a way to put extreme pressure on the port of Odesa in Ukraine. Most of Ukraine's trade and grain moves through Odesa on the Black Sea which ties to the Mediterranean. This would impact Africa and the Middle East. Moldova has no real military. The nation has Russians and Ukrainians as minorities but Russia wants to protect Russian in the Transnitrea supposedly. The nation is largely Romanian in ethnicity.

The other concern is that Russia is talking about taking over Belarus on the north. Belarus has been dominated by Russia for some time. It is poorer than Ukraine, but not as bad as Moldova. Ukraine is quite poor. Likely Belarussians to some degree would put up an insurgency against Russia but not try to officially stop them. This move if it happens is what makes Poland, Finland, Sweden, and the Baltics particularly nervous.

Putin has stepped up his rhetoric of saying the US is trying to destroy Russian. My opinion... this war is about oil and moving NATO east. Not much more. China is appearing to buy into this and is now looking into promising security to Russia. Russia has engaged most of it's non nuke military in Ukraine and when Ukraine is now talking about moving tanks to threaten Moscow, they may not be kidding. Not much could stand in the way if Russia is militarily depleted.

What is China's beef? China needs Russian oil. Like Japan in early WW2, they will/may take steps to ensure not being dependent on US influenced oil. Watch and observe folks.

I appreciate your updates. You paint a good picture of what is going on. What a mess.

 

[okeefe4prez]

I appreciate your updates. You paint a good picture of what is going on. What a mess.

Can someone who speaks the language please find the source and verify the translation in this report?

skadefron on Twitter: "Olena #Zelensky: "One woman saw a drone from her balcony and shot it down with a jar of tomatoes" #HillaryClinton #Russia #Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar #RussianArmy #RussianUkrainianWar #UkraineWar https://t.co/JDjQz0iaNk" / Twitter