Ukraine War Update

[HawkGold]

As we all follow the Hawks, the War in Ukraine is getting deeper. As I mentioned before, I have a lot of experience and travel to the country. My friends were becoming more concerned about the war in recent weeks, even prior to the missile attacks.

Thoughts on the War

1. Both sides are getting very worn out. 120 to 140 days in combat and soldiers are toast.
2. The US is now admitting to having assets, both CIA and military on the ground in Ukraine along with German and British. The US supplies a lot of logistical assistance. The Brits more soldier training along with the Germans. They also admit to being involved in assisting the Ukrainians hitting Russian soil and Crimea.
3. Ukraine is a terrible country with a lot of very good people. The Govt is terrible and corrupt. They are not a "wonderful fledgling democracy".
4. The US brought in long-range artillery missile systems that began to hit the Russian reserves. The US eventually allowed the Ukrainians to go further and hit supply lines and depots deep in Russian-controlled Ukrainian and sometimes Russian territory.
5. US MANPADS turned the tide early in the war along with intelligence.
6. The Ukrainian Army and the Russians both use civilian human shields.
7. Germany is in deep trouble with energy along with other East European nations.
8. Britain is in serious trouble economically due to inflationary pressures.
9. Putin is in serious trouble and backed in a corner.
10. More and more WILL come out about then VP Biden and Hunter and it won't be pretty.
11. The Biden admin changed from defending Ukraine to kicking out Russia and now gearing toward Regim change in Russia. The Biden Admin has thwarted attempts to negotiate and incentivize.
12. The Donbas is an older population. Since the war started in 2014, pensioners get a pension from both Ukraine and Russia and that is not enough to live on. Mandatory retirement is age 60.
13. Unless Russia collapses, the UA Army will receive more and more heavy casualties from offensive deployment. Like the Russians they are short on manpower.
14. The threat of nuclear weapons is real. This isn't about the west kicking out Russia. It is about destroying Russia going back to Biden, Burisma and the Donbas in 2014. There will be more and more unrest in Russia.

On a personal note since I last posted on this, several of my friends had close encounters in the missile hits on the Kremenchuk shopping mall that killed about 20. The UA Army had a weapons depot right beside the mall.

The walking bridge that was hit yesterday in Kyiv, I know the area well. I've walked many times on that street. This video is of a young woman doing a selfie video when the missile struck. She survives but is terrified. The whole situation is terrifying to Ukrainians. The war is terrible. Hawkeye football is a good distraction. The world is in a terrible situation that could get worse. Make no mistake, the Ukraine war is about Russia and the West. Ukraine is caught in the middle.

A young girl filmed a missile attack on Kyiv #shorts

A rocket fell near a university.Video: Top News | (Війна, Україна, Новини)Visit our website: http://belsat.eu/en/Join us on social media:Facebook https://goo...

www.youtube.com

 

[okeefe4prez]

It is about destroying Russia going back to Biden, Burisma and the Donbas in 2014.

This is all a conspiracy theory. Neither Joe nor Hunter Biden has ever had any business dealings in Ukraine. I don't think a Biden had even ever said the word "Ukraine" until Putin began waging his illegal war there. Whatever sources you are getting your information from are purely disinformation and to know what is really going on you need to watch CNN.

 

[HawkGold]

This is all a conspiracy theory. Neither Joe nor Hunter Biden has ever had any business dealings in Ukraine. I don't think a Biden had even ever said the word "Ukraine" until Putin began waging his illegal war there. Whatever sources you are getting your information from are purely disinformation and to know what is really going on you need to watch CNN.

No it's not. Get over it. I get my info from Ukraine. Make no mistake Putin is bad. He is responsible. The west pushed it. I've been at demonstrations in Kyiv. I know people in war zones. I have experienced the Russian and Ukrainian mafia. Ukraine is a terrible country.

Have you lived in a hole and not seen what happened in Iraq? Syria?

Do you really think Hunter on the board at Burisma is legit? Maybe you are being sarcastic?

 

[HawkGold]

This is all a conspiracy theory. Neither Joe nor Hunter Biden has ever had any business dealings in Ukraine. I don't think a Biden had even ever said the word "Ukraine" until Putin began waging his illegal war there. Whatever sources you are getting your information from are purely disinformation and to know what is really going on you need to watch CNN.

Check the dates here on when the Donbas War and Crimea takeover happened. True or not (which it is), the perception for Russian that a VP's son and John Kerry's financial advisor would get that gig given what was going down in Syria, perception is reality like it or not. The timing of the Biden's activity was...well.

A full 1/3 of Russia' economy is based on oil/gas. Develop Donbas (which is Ukraine's right) and Russia isn't needed. A sitting VP had NO BUSINESS doing this.

Biden's Son Gets Ukrainian Oil Company Gig

Hunter Biden's new job is not a conflict of influence, White House says.

abcnews.go.com

Biden's Son, Kerry Family Friend Join Ukrainian Gas Producer's Board

Biden's son and a close friend of Kerry's stepson have joined the board of a Ukrainian gas producer controlled by a former energy official for deposed President Viktor Yanukovych.

www.wsj.com

Timeline of Donbas

Timeline of the war in Donbas (2014) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Timing of Crimea

Timeline of the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

MH 17 Timeline

A timeline of the MH17 disaster

The shooting down of MH17 sparked international condemnation and revulsion. Look back on how the events unfolded.

www.abc.net.au

Royal Dutch Shell and Donbas

Ukraine and Shell sign shale gas deal

Ukraine has signed a major shale gas deal with Royal Dutch Shell.

www.bbc.com

Shell has been driven out of Ukraine

Low oil prices and conflict are driving Shell out of Ukraine.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[okeefe4prez]

No it's not. Get over it. I get my info from Ukraine. Make no mistake Putin is bad. He is responsible. The west pushed it. I've been at demonstrations in Kyiv. I know people in war zones. I have experienced the Russian and Ukrainian mafia. Ukraine is a terrible country.

Have you lived in a hole and not seen what happened in Iraq? Syria?

Do you really think Hunter on the board at Burisma is legit? Maybe you are being sarcastic?

Chocolate rations were increased from 25 grams to 15 grams.

 

[Fryowa]

No it's not. Get over it. I get my info from Ukraine....I've been at demonstrations in Kyiv. I know people in war zones. I have experienced the Russian and Ukrainian mafia.

That's such a tired narrative. In many contexts. The whole, "I visited Ukraine before and stayed there for a while so I'm automatically more of an expert in the geopolitics of the region than you" thing is bunk.

No historian (or even person) alive today was present during the French Revolution or Russian Revolution or American Civil War or Sarajevo when Franz got shot, but that doesn't mean no one else can understand the dynamics at play and get a full, thorough understanding in order to come to logical conclusions.

I didn't have to be alive during the Civil Rights Movement and live in the south to understand and think critically about what went on and what led up to it.

Information is disseminated thousands of percent faster and bigger in volume than ever before. And no, not all of it is contradictory and false. In fact, you visiting there and having a first hand opinion on the situation makes you a terrible source of information because you're so biased.

 

[HawkGold]

That's such a tired narrative. In many contexts. The whole, "I visited Ukraine before and stayed there for a while so I'm automatically more of an expert in the geopolitics of the region than you" thing is bunk.

No historian (or even person) alive today was present during the French Revolution or Russian Revolution or American Civil War or Sarajevo when Franz got shot, but that doesn't mean no one else can understand the dynamics at play and get a full, thorough understanding in order to come to logical conclusions.

I didn't have to be alive during the Civil Rights Movement and live in the south to understand and think critically about what went on and what led up to it.

Information is disseminated thousands of percent faster and bigger in volume than ever before. And no, not all of it is contradictory and false. In fact, you visiting there and having a first hand opinion on the situation makes you a terrible source of information because you're so biased.

You are entitled to your opinion. Biased no. Having accurate sources? Yes. I've lived there for a total about 6 months, but not as a tourist but doing business and interacting with the Govt. My opinion is no different than you having opinions based on your boss's inside scoop to Iowa Football. Or you having one child and thinking you can give advise on building family ties with children. Someday, and just keep this in your pocket, I would guess there is a real chance you child deep down really doesn't like it and will tell you someday. That's OK, we are all getting through life.

Of anyone on here, you are about the most contrarian. I doubt you really think all history is the way we read about it in the history books or that headlines were correct.

We are very close to nuclear war and people don't want to hear that. The US Govt poked the Russian Bear. The whole situation is sickening. Putin IS at the top of the cause of this. The US isn't real far behind.

You can take it for what it's worth. I happen to be a guy who actually has been there many times. Not many have intermixed with protesters on the Maidan. Been stopped by the police and messed with by SBU and mafia. I've actually been in court there and know-how that extremely corrupt system works.

What you don't get mostly is that you are about the biggest mouthpiece on here with your opinions and hit others with a sledge hammer rather than discuss.

Why are we all here even discussing Iowa football given your opinion about opinions?

Why not discuss what you do believe or don't believe about what should be the biggest off topic issues of our time at the moment?

 

[PCHawk]

I listened to Tulsi Gabbard on Rogan and she basically says the same thing about the US government driving this whole thing. Lots of money exchanging hands. I hope they're all confident they can collect their money and de-escalate in time.

 

[Fryowa]

You are entitled to your opinion. Biased no. Having accurate sources? Yes. I've lived there for a total about 6 months, but not as a tourist but doing business and interacting with the Govt. My opinion is no different than you having opinions based on your boss's inside scoop to Iowa Football. Or you having one child and thinking you can give advise on building family ties with children. Someday, and just keep this in your pocket, I would guess there is a real chance you child deep down really doesn't like it and will tell you someday. That's OK, we are all getting through life.

Of anyone on here, you are about the most contrarian. I doubt you really think all history is the way we read about it in the history books or that headlines were correct.

We are very close to nuclear war and people don't want to hear that. The US Govt poked the Russian Bear. The whole situation is sickening. Putin IS at the top of the cause of this. The US isn't real far behind.

You can take it for what it's worth. I happen to be a guy who actually has been there many times. Not many have intermixed with protesters on the Maidan. Been stopped by the police and messed with by SBU and mafia. I've actually been in court there and know-how that extremely corrupt system works.

What you don't get mostly is that you are about the biggest mouthpiece on here with your opinions and hit others with a sledge hammer rather than discuss.

Why are we all here even discussing Iowa football given your opinion about opinions?

Why not discuss what you do believe or don't believe about what should be the biggest off topic issues of our time at the moment?

That's a lot of mad words and deflection when all I did was tell you that you living there doesn't automatically make you an expert or even authoritative. A country is a big place with a lot of different cultural areas, ethnicities, and demographics. Anytime any one on these Ukraine threads has given a point counter to one of yours, you throw out the "I lived there for a little while so you are wrong automatically" card.

That's like a foreigner saying, "I lived in Topeka for 6 months so I know the ins and outs of the US geopolitical system and the drivers behind it." Doesn't hold water. Yes, you might know that particular area somewhat, and you might know the locals and the way the locals view the government, but it doesn't by any stretch mean you can just dismiss every other opinion on the matter with "I lived there and you didn't."

As far as the donor thing, 1) I'd say that's orders of magnitude less complex than a war involving two countries + NATO, and 2) I was asked the question of how I know the influence boosters have on sports so I merely answered.

I also never "hit you with a sledgehammer." I said you using a blanket dismissal to everyone else's points because you lived there for a few months was baloney, that's all. To be honest, I think one of the reasons you start posts on the subject is because you want people to reply so you can "correct" them and use your "I visited there" spiel as some sort of street cred. It's similar to what I like to call the EMT effect. You know that weird phenomena where EMTs always have to make sure everyone in the room knows they're an EMT?

You like to get extremely defensive and dramatic when someone counters the things you say. It doesn't help you persuade people, that's for sure.

 

[HawkGold]

That's a lot of mad words and deflection when all I did was tell you that you living there doesn't automatically make you an expert or even authoritative. A country is a big place with a lot of different cultural areas, ethnicities, and demographics. Anytime any one on these Ukraine threads has given a point counter to one of yours, you throw out the "I lived there for a little while so you are wrong automatically" card.

That's like a foreigner saying, "I lived in Topeka for 6 months so I know the ins and outs of the US geopolitical system and the drivers behind it." Doesn't hold water. Yes, you might know that particular area somewhat, and you might know the locals and the way the locals view the government, but it doesn't by any stretch mean you can just dismiss every other opinion on the matter with "I lived there and you didn't."

As far as the donor thing, 1) I'd say that's orders of magnitude less complex than a war involving two countries + NATO, and 2) I was asked the question of how I know the influence boosters have on sports so I merely answered.

I also never "hit you with a sledgehammer." I said you using a blanket dismissal to everyone else's points because you lived there for a few months was baloney, that's all. To be honest, I think one of the reasons you start posts on the subject is because you want people to reply so you can "correct" them and use your "I visited there" spiel as some sort of street cred. It's similar to what I like to call the EMT effect. You know that weird phenomena where EMTs always have to make sure everyone in the room knows they're an EMT?

You like to get extremely defensive and dramatic when someone counters the things you say. It doesn't help you persuade people, that's for sure.

Works both ways. I was speaking in part to past interactions you have had in general and not just to me. Specifically, it does seem you double-speak a lot. Some of your negativity toward the current Hawk team is a bit overwhelming, but yet you hammer others who do the same. In essence, it seems you want everyone to know you are an "EMT". We both tend to speak plainly and have some of issues in communication "styles". Take it for what it's worth.

About Ukraine, I actually have about 20 years of experience in that country. I also know enough to know that Americans have a very difficult time understanding a culture that is vastly different.

I do know we are in deep trouble currently. No idea how this will work out. I know in the past we ended up with 500k to 1 million dead Iraqis. It's easy to dismiss things as "fighting for our freedoms", and see people killed who don't "look" and act as we do.

I have a number of very good friends in harm's way and yes it does impact me. One is desperately trying to keep his 20 yo son who is a concert pianist out of the Army. To be blunt, replacements die at a much higher rate, but replacements are needed as the army is spent emotionally and physically. Replacements are cannon fodder. I do get more emotional when I see places I know very well being hit or under soldier attack. One very good friend hasn't heard from his businessman son-in-law who went to Irpin in late February to try and protect his buildings.

Never, will I understand (corruption or not) why a sitting VP would ever have a family member or a Sec of State's personal friend involved in a hot-button issue in a hot-button location. Never will I understand that.

Just take some time and look into the mirror on some of the points you bring up. War is difficult and much more than Iowa football. Anyone gets that (you used your own drama). You did foray into family matters by comparing your own situation to others with your own 1 son. At least your son knows where your passion is. If you haven't, I would suggest you have an open honest discussion about how he feels about your passion for Hawk football. It may take years to get the answer out of him. Based on your skills hear, I would expect that listening and discussion isn't your strong point.

 

[Fryowa]

You did foray into family matters by comparing your own situation to others with your own 1 son. At least your son knows where your passion is. If you haven't, I would suggest you have an open honest discussion about how he feels about your passion for Hawk football. It may take years to get the answer out of him. Based on your skills hear, I would expect that listening and discussion isn't your strong point.

Such a strange infatuation you have with my kid.

Despite the weirdness (bordering on creepy) we talk Hawkeyes on the daily and it's not a one-way street. He says trips to Iowa City are his favorite thing he does. He reads Iowa sports media as much as me or even more and I'd say he's just as rabid a fan.

You talk about gaslighting all the time (even though you don't understand the concept fully--it's ok, the top two things people confuse and misinterpret are gaslighting and the straw man argument so you're not alone)...but then you go and try gaslighting me on the topic of kids. Which is weird. I don't think you can handle me having a parent and friendship relationship with mine while you've bombed 0-4 on that with your own. Maybe you should have spent a little more time at home cultivating it.

 

[HawkGold]

Such a strange infatuation you have with my kid.

Despite the weirdness (bordering on creepy) we talk Hawkeyes on the daily and it's not a one-way street. He says trips to Iowa City are his favorite thing he does. He reads Iowa sports media as much as me or even more and I'd say he's just as rabid a fan.

You talk about gaslighting all the time (even though you don't understand the concept fully--it's ok, the top two things people confuse and misinterpret are gaslighting and the straw man argument so you're not alone)...but then you go and try gaslighting me on the topic of kids. Which is weird. I don't think you can handle me having a parent and friendship relationship with mine while you've bombed 0-4 on that with your own. Maybe you should have spent a little more time at home cultivating it.

Funny. But again you don't stop. And now I haven't struck out with any. Just pointing out that you don't know everything. Let's just stay out of each other's way. Just look in the mirror once in a while and stop hiding behind your Matt Dillion badge. Back to the gas lighting... You are the dude! You are good at it.

 

[Fryowa]

.Back to the gas lighting... You are the dude! You are good at it.

See, I told you you don’t understand it. That’s reverse psychology. Two different things.

This should help you out.

 

[HawkGold]

See, I told you you don’t understand it. That’s reverse psychology. Two different things.

This should help you out.

 

[HawkGold]

See, I told you you don’t understand it. That’s reverse psychology. Two different things.

This should help you out.

Anyway, I do hope you have a good weekend...

 

[okeefe4prez]

Fry - no need to put this guy on blast. As a society we need to talk about this shit. From where I sit there is cause for concern. First, the Left Wing of the Party of Big Government has spent decades attempting to at least act like they are anti-war and suddenly they are pro war. Ukraine gets additional aid damned near every fucking day. $200 million one day, $700 million the next, every few weeks something gets re-upped with a few billion.

Second, the US government is attempting to use the same playbook it has always used to manufacture consent to drag the US into conflict. The shit is soooooo transparent. Attempt to scare the shit out of everyone, make someone the bad guy, promise to "do something about it," jump into proxy war.

Third, news reporting is heavily skewed by what the owners and advertisers on the news dissemination sources want pushed out there. I think we should welcome this guy reporting back what he's hearing from folks he knows over there.

I am anti-war. I do not want the United States playing fucking WorldCop. I have aged out of the draft (unless we have a total shit hits the fan situation) but I don't want the blood of American kids spilled over a fucking border line in Eastern Europe. The level of corruption that exists in that region dating back to the politburo and era of "privatization" after they de-commified everything is unfathomable to people like us and the credibility of all of these assholes is 0. This shit is not our problem and I say F anyone who tries to make it our problem. Give purely humanitarian aid and stop it at that.

 

[HawkGold]

Fry - no need to put this guy on blast. As a society we need to talk about this shit. From where I sit there is cause for concern. First, the Left Wing of the Party of Big Government has spent decades attempting to at least act like they are anti-war and suddenly they are pro war. Ukraine gets additional aid damned near every fucking day. $200 million one day, $700 million the next, every few weeks something gets re-upped with a few billion.

Second, the US government is attempting to use the same playbook it has always used to manufacture consent to drag the US into conflict. The shit is soooooo transparent. Attempt to scare the shit out of everyone, make someone the bad guy, promise to "do something about it," jump into proxy war.

Third, news reporting is heavily skewed by what the owners and advertisers on the news dissemination sources want pushed out there. I think we should welcome this guy reporting back what he's hearing from folks he knows over there.

I am anti-war. I do not want the United States playing fucking WorldCop. I have aged out of the draft (unless we have a total shit hits the fan situation) but I don't want the blood of American kids spilled over a fucking border line in Eastern Europe. The level of corruption that exists in that region dating back to the politburo and era of "privatization" after they de-commified everything is unfathomable to people like us and the credibility of all of these assholes is 0. This shit is not our problem and I say F anyone who tries to make it our problem. Give purely humanitarian aid and stop it at that.

I can tell you that the intense fear they had at the start and during the earlier months is now surpassed by the terror of how things are now. They don't know what or who to believe, which of course includes their own government in which they have no faith or trust.

Ukraine is the 2nd poorest country in Europe, behind only Moldova. On the news you can see some nice cars, but things aren't as nice as they seem. Rural areas are particularly impoverished and Donbas is about the worst area in the country. It's really hard for people to get ahead in Ukraine due to a lack of jobs and the mafia issues. I know of a business that burnt to the ground right next door to the fire station as the mafia sent word not to intervene. Farmers get arrested for no real good reason so the large farming operations can take over the land. Running for office can get you arrested or harassed by auditors.

Rural areas are particularly poor. Men are drunk. Women work hard and try and feed the kids. The life span of males though improving dropped from about US levels under the Soviets to low 50s. I spent quite a bit of time in Kyiv (Kiev is Russian), but most time in rural areas. Human trafficking is a huge business and girls are offered as either with hips or no hips implying age and how used/abused. Young people are desperate to learn English as a way out of poverty and out of the country.

As mentioned, I was in Kyiv during massive demonstrations. I got stuck in traffic where there was a confrontation between the various groups, but that ended peacefully. That night I grabbed my camera and took pictures of the demonstrations on the Maidan. Talking to participants they didn't care about politics. They were being paid 60 USD per day to march, protest, and carry signs. They indicated the money was coming from the US and Russia.

The war is basically about control of a mafia state (Ukriane) with the west and another mafia state (Russia competing against each other. Neither side cares about the people. For Russia it's about maintaining gas/oil exports to west Europe (1/3 of the Russian economy) and keeping it's frontier (borders) clear of NATO. NATO has changed and is now dominated by US/Britain and for East European nations. Thus you see the split with a luke warm response from Germany and no real response from other long term NATO countries. To understand Russia's border paranoia, look at history as well as what happened in the Balkan's in the 90s. I more believe our own narrative, but the Balkan War was quite complicated.

What has happened is that the East Euro Nato members wanted to upgrade their weapons systems from old Soviet equipment and aircraft to more modern western systems and 4th Gen fighters. So they donated the old weapons to Ukraine and the west provided new weapons. Look at what has happened to Lockheed Martin stocks at the beginning of the war.

I don't know everything about Ukraine, but I do know that what we are provided for news isn't very accurate. I'm a bit skewed as the 40 yo wife of a friend sprinted out of her office and got 8 blocks away before a missile hit. A farmer friend had 2 missiles shot down over his house. One family that I am close to first knew of war when missiles hit in Kyiv a short distance away. Another guy hasn't heard from his son in law who was a civilian in Irpin since late February. Another harbors refugees from Donbas and Mariupol where they are traumatized with the women and children being totally despondent and were used by human shields by Ukraine's AZOV Battalion as they were trying to escape Mariupol. Yesterday in the US news was talking about fresh Ukrainian troops wearing the Right Sector patches. I can read Russian and new what there were. Right Sector and AZOV terrorize many Ukrainians which are Russian speaking (which is where I spent most of my time in Russian speaking areas. These people aren't pro Russia at all. For sure not pro Putin.

 

[HawkGold]

Here is an article about political problems in Ukraine prior to the recent war outbreak concerning NAZI interests.

Commentary: Ukraine’s neo-Nazi problem

As Ukraine's struggle against Russia and its proxies continues, Kiev must also contend with a growing problem behind the front lines: far-right vigilantes who are willing to use intimidation and even violence to advance their agendas, and who often do so with the tacit approval of law...

www.reuters.com

The Right Sector and AZOV were becoming very powerful to the point where Russia was becoming concerned that in a few years the Ukrainian Army would become hard to control. Those groups were officially added to the UA Army within a year of this article.

Don't get me wrong, I love Ukraine. I really love the people and culture. The Govt is dirty and corrupt. Still, Putin is the aggressor, but things are not as clear as we Americans like to make it. AZOV trained by the US 101st ABN and supplied by the west beat the hell out of the Russians for the battle for Mariupol in 2015 which helps to explain Putins obsession with Mariupol and why he destroyed the city. He also wanted to destroy Odesa for some of the same reasons. Kharkiv was the other city. He succeeded completely with Mariupol, mostly with Karkhiv and never got to Odesa.

 

[racerhawk]

I listened to Tulsi Gabbard on Rogan and she basically says the same thing about the US government driving this whole thing. Lots of money exchanging hands. I hope they're all confident they can collect their money and de-escalate in time.

Tulsi Gabbard. LOL!!!

 

[PCHawk]

Tulsi Gabbard. LOL!!!

I'm not sure why that's funny.