Garza will get NBA feedback that he needs to work on D and passing out the post and while he's shooting great from outside, I think they are going to want to see more of it in volume. His own Dad has said publicly several times that it's doubtful Luka goes to the NBA early. He said as recently as last week they aren't even sure if they will go thru the process (which would be dumb IMO). He said and I am paraphrasing here "we don't need NBA scouts to tell us that Luka is slow, we already know that".
That said, you can never tell but I don't think we're at the the "No way of seeing Garza come back" stage yet. He's a beast tho. If I had to say right now, Luka goes or comes back, gun to the head kind of deal... I would say Luka is back next season but a lot can change over the next 2 months. IMO, it really depends on if Iowa keeps winning. They make a run to the sweet 16 or further and Luka becomes an even bigger name then I could see it.
I agree wholeheartedly on the things he needs to work on: D and making teams pay for double-teams with his passing.
He kills teams in the post. That is very difficult to do right now in the NBA with the incredible athletes and zone now legal. I think he is a special enough player that he can still be effective, but he will need to learn to go immediately or pass immediately. He does a lot of multiple-dribble moves, and those just will not be possible in the NBA with guards dropping down in your lap as soon as you put it on the floor.
Also, one-way players are pretty much obsolete in the NBA post-season anymore. Teams are so good at hunting a defensive weakness and attacking that individual over and over until the coach takes them out. Likewise, if you are an offensive liability, teams will flat out not guard you and your man will be wreaking havoc all over the floor. One-way guys still have value in the regular season because the game-planning doesn't get that sophisticated until the post-season, but that kind of value is generally worthy of a late 1st round pick or 2nd round pick.
If Luka can become more decisive in the post and start spraying passes all over the place (think Jokic or either of the Gasols), and he can maximize his defensive potential through smart positioning and use of his hands, he can be a very good NBA player. If he never learns to do those things, he becomes Jahlil Okafor.
Not sure if his best path to becoming that player is to stick around Iowa for another year, or to start playing professionally? Being a pro would allow all of his time to be devoted to his craft. But being at Iowa allows him to develop as an offensive fulcrum, which might not be available to him early on as a pro. Also, pros tend to play a lot with minimal time for practice during the season.
The parallels between Garza and Gustafson are uncanny. They play very differently in style, but they are similarly dominant, and they are similar in that they are both entirely unique (they both broke the mold). I assumed after Gustafson's junior year (B1G player of the year, All-American) there was no where to go but down. How can you improve on that? Well, she upped her scoring, FG%, and rebounding, and she became a much better passer and defender (doesn't jump out from the conventional stats, but it certainly did from watching her, and I am sure it showed up in advanced metrics). She was the national player of the year. I think Garza could do something similar if he chose to stay.
