Tough to get a feel for Iowa-Michigan game

[MelroseHawkins]

Michigan is infinite years away from being really good if they stick with their 3-3-5 and current (lack of) defensive recruiting focus.

Agreed. They have to run that D out of need secondary to lack of playmakers or players that can make a difference on the interior. Until Michigan can bring a legitimate D back to the Big 10 they will struggle.

It's amazing that in Rich Rod's 3rd year, he has yet to pack a formidable D. That is just asanine. I guess he took the 3 yrs to find his gimmick QB to run that offense. It's going to be a track meet on Saturday but Rich Rod can't really believe he can do that week in & week out in the Big10, does he?

Seriously, 3 on the D-line? Isn't that a pretty sure minimun of 4-5 yrds a pop on a running play, especially with solid O-lines? I realize they are going to bring the other guys up, but a technically sound O-line is going to get leverage & up the field. That is the whole goal of the O-line on running plays. To get under the pads & up field. Michigan is going to have to sneak some people up to cover lanes & hopefully that will open the TE's up.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

Agreed. They have to run that D out of need secondary to lack of playmakers or players that can make a difference on the interior. Until Michigan can bring a legitimate D back to the Big 10 they will struggle.

It's amazing that in Rich Rod's 3rd year, he has yet to pack a formidable D. That is just asanine. I guess he took the 3 yrs to find his gimmick QB to run that offense. It's going to be a track meet on Saturday but Rich Rod can't really believe he can do that week in & week out in the Big10, does he?

Seriously, 3 on the D-line? Isn't that a pretty sure minimun of 4-5 yrds a pop on a running play, especially with solid O-lines? I realize they are going to bring the other guys up, but a technically sound O-line is going to get leverage & up the field. That is the whole goal of the O-line on running plays. To get under the pads & up field. Michigan is going to have to sneak some people up to cover lanes & hopefully that will open the TE's up.

I believe Michigan is going to do exactly what they tried to do to Michigan State...load the box and blitz repeatedly as they can't get pressure consistently without it. The blueprint will be the same as they don't think Iowa's o-line or backs are as good as MSU's. They are right in my opinion. However, the passing game at Iowa is much better and the receiver talent is deeper at Iowa over MSU. KOK has to be prepared to start the game throwing the ball and doing it consistently and hurt them for the aggressive play. If we can capitalize and get up 7-14 points...this could be a long day for DRob.

Michigan cannot allow us to control the clock and sustain drives...in those scenarios they lose every time. Expect a ton of pressure and an extremely aggressive defensive game plan from Michigan...only way they can win is force us into turnovers and then get points off them and get us down early...sound familiar?

 

[DaHawk56]

A few thoughts:

This game feels a little like GT to me. An offense that Iowa isn't used to going against but has a little extra time to prepare.

I think that if Iowa jumps out to a lead in this game, things could get ugly quick. Specifically, Michigan is trying to convince themselves that last week was a fluke. If Iowa can show them right away that it was not, I think Michigan will lose confidence quickly.

Further, I'd like to see Iowa in a position where Michigan isn't taking what's given to them, and instead is trying to force a big play to catch up in the game. I think Michigan trying to play catch-up will lead to more turnovers.

Michigan to me seems like one of those teams that can really kill below average defensive teams but will really struggle against better defensive teams. It just feels like the Michigan offense is all or nothing.

Michigan's defense, on the other hand, is a sieve. Against average to poor teams, Michigan can just outscore people. But against good teams, Michigan's defense really puts them at a disadvantage.

If Iowa comes out sharp, puts some points on the board and contains the initial charge of Michigan, I think Iowa should win by at least 2 TDs. If Iowa comes out flat, and the game is close or Michigan is up at the half, I think things could get interesting late in the game, especially because Michigan is at home. Even in that scenario, however, I think this game is Iowa's to lose (i.e., unless Iowa's special teams decides to relive their time in Arizona, Iowa should be able to hold of Michigan and stay undefeated in the Big Ten).

 

[hawkfan8691]

In fairness, I saw his consulting company on a moped, it will be starting by midseason

hey brian kaldenberg, is your consulting strategy to give people 2 opposite pieces of advice? or do you just do that when predicting scores?

prediction thread- iowa 38, michigan 31

this thread- michigan 41, iowa 24

i will definitely NOT be recommending you to anyone seeking consultation

 

[trj]

Agreed. They have to run that D out of need secondary to lack of playmakers or players that can make a difference on the interior. Until Michigan can bring a legitimate D back to the Big 10 they will struggle.

It's amazing that in Rich Rod's 3rd year, he has yet to pack a formidable D. That is just asanine. I guess he took the 3 yrs to find his gimmick QB to run that offense. It's going to be a track meet on Saturday but Rich Rod can't really believe he can do that week in & week out in the Big10, does he?

Seriously, 3 on the D-line? Isn't that a pretty sure minimun of 4-5 yrds a pop on a running play, especially with solid O-lines? I realize they are going to bring the other guys up, but a technically sound O-line is going to get leverage & up the field. That is the whole goal of the O-line on running plays. To get under the pads & up field. Michigan is going to have to sneak some people up to cover lanes & hopefully that will open the TE's up.

I'll state the obvious, the defense is based on speed. If you have the personnel in place, its the ideal defense to run against spread attacks.

Richrod did screw up by not making defense more of a priority, when he first got there. however, its Michigan, they'll get athletes, they'll get speed. If kids like Will Cambell develope like they are suppose to you won't need a 4-man front. You can find these hybrid safety/linebacker types that fit perfectly into a 3-3-5.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Homer look beyond Illinois.

2002- No Bye
2003- at OSU Loss
2004 Win OSU at Kinnick
2005 - at NW Loss. Foot off the pedal.
2006 - No Bye
2007 No Bye
2008 - at Illinois Loss
2009 No Bye

That is three out of four losses after bye weeks. If you look at away games after the bye, it is 0-3.

Also, these are games when Iowa was quite possibly the better team. Remember, OSU 2003 was not a juggernaut.

tOSU was no juggernaut ... but we also faced them early enough in the year ... so we were no juggernaut that year either. All the same ... it was a close game.

Another thing to note ... EACH one of the listed losses were still VERY close! For goodness sakes ... we were without Hinkel in the Northwestern game and we were trying to protect the lead. You might point out that we failed in that endeavor ... however, just remember that our special teams is what really killed us in that game ... nobody on our "hands team" put a body on the Northwestern guys ... and consequently we failed to recover the on-side kick. Had we actually executed on ST like they're trained to ... the outcome of that game would have resulted in a Hawk victory. Besides, whether we like to give NW credit or not ... Basanez was still one heck of a college QB.

 

[iHawk]

I know a lot of folks are concerned about our LBs being able to handle DR in space, but I'm not convinced he's gonna see much space with the Iowa DL controlling the LOS. This will be the best DL the Michigan OL has been asked to deal with... and I say "deal with" because Iowa's DL brings it to the OL - not the other way around.

I have seen enough of DR to know he's very good at moving through gaps at the LOS and getting into space, but I don't think there will be as many gaps as he has been used to seeing; and gaps that do appear in the Iowa DL tend to disappear in a flash. It's like a mirage.

I think we'll be okay.

On offense, I think we'll see Iowa coming out with a very balanced attack that will remain that way throughout all 4 quarters - unlike the PSU game. I think DJK hits the mark this weekend.

Is it Saturday yet?

 

[MelroseHawkins]

A few thoughts:

This game feels a little like GT to me. An offense that Iowa isn't used to going against but has a little extra time to prepare.

I think that if Iowa jumps out to a lead in this game, things could get ugly quick. Specifically, Michigan is trying to convince themselves that last week was a fluke. If Iowa can show them right away that it was not, I think Michigan will lose confidence quickly.

Further, I'd like to see Iowa in a position where Michigan isn't taking what's given to them, and instead is trying to force a big play to catch up in the game. I think Michigan trying to play catch-up will lead to more turnovers.

Michigan to me seems like one of those teams that can really kill below average defensive teams but will really struggle against better defensive teams. It just feels like the Michigan offense is all or nothing.

Michigan's defense, on the other hand, is a sieve. Against average to poor teams, Michigan can just outscore people. But against good teams, Michigan's defense really puts them at a disadvantage.

If Iowa comes out sharp, puts some points on the board and contains the initial charge of Michigan, I think Iowa should win by at least 2 TDs. If Iowa comes out flat, and the game is close or Michigan is up at the half, I think things could get interesting late in the game, especially because Michigan is at home. Even in that scenario, however, I think this game is Iowa's to lose (i.e., unless Iowa's special teams decides to relive their time in Arizona, Iowa should be able to hold of Michigan and stay undefeated in the Big Ten).

Good post. Can't disagree there.

 

[hawkfan2679]

Seriously, 3 on the D-line? Isn't that a pretty sure minimun of 4-5 yrds a pop on a running play, especially with solid O-lines? I realize they are going to bring the other guys up, but a technically sound O-line is going to get leverage & up the field. That is the whole goal of the O-line on running plays. To get under the pads & up field. Michigan is going to have to sneak some people up to cover lanes & hopefully that will open the TE's up.

For a zone running attack, it's tougher to zone block a 30 stack than it is a 4-3 or 3-4...but if you don't have some real "space eaters" on the DL, you can be susceptible to some straight ahead, good ol' fashioned smash mouth football. If we get our big guys on their LB's, it's all over. But they'll have 8 in the box, so we still need to make sure we get a hat on a hat.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

For a zone running attack, it's tougher to zone block a 30 stack than it is a 4-3 or 3-4...but if you don't have some real "space eaters" on the DL, you can be susceptible to some straight ahead, good ol' fashioned smash mouth football. If we get our big guys on their LB's, it's all over. But they'll have 8 in the box, so we still need to make sure we get a hat on a hat.

Ah. Good info. Makes sense.

 

[Clark]

I'll state the obvious, the defense is based on speed. If you have the personnel in place, its the ideal defense to run against spread attacks.

Richrod did screw up by not making defense more of a priority, when he first got there. however, its Michigan, they'll get athletes, they'll get speed. If kids like Will Cambell develope like they are suppose to you won't need a 4-man front. You can find these hybrid safety/linebacker types that fit perfectly into a 3-3-5.

That's a good philosophy in the Big East but if you want to succeed in the Big 10 you better have a defense that can stop the i-formation as well. Teams like Wisconsin, Iowa, OSU will gladly take 5 yards a carry all the way down the field. And when you have to devote so much energy to stopping the run, it becomes easier to beat you with a play action pass.

For a zone running attack, it's tougher to zone block a 30 stack than it is a 4-3 or 3-4...but if you don't have some real "space eaters" on the DL, you can be susceptible to some straight ahead, good ol' fashioned smash mouth football. If we get our big guys on their LB's, it's all over. But they'll have 8 in the box, so we still need to make sure we get a hat on a hat.

Good analysis.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

For a zone running attack, it's tougher to zone block a 30 stack than it is a 4-3 or 3-4...but if you don't have some real "space eaters" on the DL, you can be susceptible to some straight ahead, good ol' fashioned smash mouth football. If we get our big guys on their LB's, it's all over. But they'll have 8 in the box, so we still need to make sure we get a hat on a hat.

Michigan will try to give themselves a numbers advantage in the box to stop the run. And, apart from blown assignments, the Wolverines have shown that they're capable of making the sledding pretty tough. Where they get burnt is that they'll occasionally miss tackles and/or miss an asignment and leave a hole wide open. MSU primarily gashed Michigan on big runs. It really surprised me how effective Michigan's D was against MSU's O in the first half (apart from allowing the big plays).

 

[edr247]

Personally, I don't think it's that hard to gauge at all.

Right now, I think we're totally in awe of Dernard and his crazy offensive numbers. Is he good? Yes. Is he some sort of football god come down to Earth? No.

This game is going to be won, or lost, on discipline. If we play well disciplined, smart football, we win this game in a similar fashion as MSU did. If we start panicking on any side of the ball, and trying to do too much, that's when we're going to get burned.

 

[yaman3]

Michigan will try to give themselves a numbers advantage in the box to stop the run. And, apart from blown assignments, the Wolverines have shown that they're capable of making the sledding pretty tough. Where they get burnt is that they'll occasionally miss tackles and/or miss an asignment and leave a hole wide open. MSU primarily gashed Michigan on big runs. It really surprised me how effective Michigan's D was against MSU's O in the first half (apart from allowing the big plays).

You know, as a Michigan fan I hate their defense, specifically Obi Ezeh, but you are right. It seems like it's either a 3 and out or 60 yard touchdown. If they can just get a game where they don't make 3 huge errors and let Adam Robinson loose, they have a chance. They also have to be able to make stops on 3rd and 8 or so when they get the chance. They had two third and longs stopped dead but someone only had to make sure the reciever never got outside of him after the catch. Instead of just doing that, he went after the tackle, missed and they got to the sticks. After that there was a touchdown.