These next three games....

[Robowe]

At least after beating Princeton their RPI rank did not drop. Duke remained the same while Iowa dropped 6 spots. Big difference between playing a team that is 4-5 versus a team that is 2-10. Granted these RPI rankings right now should be taken with a grain of salt as it's still early in the season but at the end of the year playing 3 teams in a row that are projected to lose over 20+ games will make a difference.

So, when scheduling games, when does the AD know that the team that they scheduled is projected to lose 20+ games? When Iowa scheduled Western Carolina, did they know there were going to be 3-9 at this point? WC lost in double OT to Furman (good team this year). They lost by 7 at Wake Forest. What if Western pulled out those 2 games and were 5-7 instead? Maybe they are ranked in the 200s?

When Iowa scheduled Savannah State, do they know they would be 3-9 at this point? Did they know they would already play @Texas A&M, @Georgia, @Vanderbilt, and @Wisconsin? What if SS plays lesser teams and their record is more respectable (OK, that's a bit of a reach )? Could they be in the 200s instead of 300s?

There's no doubt that Iowa wanted to schedule cupcakes in their non-conference. That's not arguable. However, like football, when looking for these teams to schedule, better to pick a team that has less chance to come in a put a loss on your record (Bryant, Western Carolina, Savannah State) than schedule Belmont (wins at UCLA), Stephen F Austin (wins at Baylor), or Lipscomb (wins at TCU).

I give Iowa credit - next year, they basically replaced the UNI/Drake game with a neutral court game vs Cincinnati. Doesn't help the fans for a home game, but it seems like they are trying to schedule some tough games.

 

[mopkins]

I don't think you understand the point I was making even though I've clarified it a number of times. I don't give a crap about scheduling these games, it's the quality of these "cupcake" games. Scheduling last place teams from crappy low major conferences does very little for the team and can actually hurt their chances to get into the NCAA Tournament. After the win last night Iowa's RPI went down because Western Carolina has a horrible record and it will go down 2 more times after they play Savannah State and Bryant.

Duke does a decent job scheduling these types of games. Playing a 4-7 Hartford, a team that is projected to finish .500, is much better than playing Western Carolina whose projected record is 5-25 or Bryant who is projected to finish 7-22. BTW, that Hartford team beat Bryant last Wednesday by 17 points on Bryants home court.

Kenpom has Duke's SoS at 102 and Iowa's at 129
Sagarin has Duke's SoS at 95 and Iowa's at 109
ESPN BPI has Duke's SoS at 52 and Iowa's at 73

This is out of 353 teams, so even after Western Carolina they're very similar with a slight edge to Duke. However:

ACC has 6 teams currently in the KenPom Top 30. Duke plays those 6 teams 7 times this year
B1G has 8 teams currently in the KenPom Top 30. Iowa plays those 8 teams 13 times this year

Again, for the 100000 time, the B1G schedule will take care of all SoS "concerns". I would place a large wager that Iowa's SoS ends up better than Duke's by the time the season is over

 

[mopkins]

I don't think you understand the point I was making even though I've clarified it a number of times. I don't give a crap about scheduling these games, it's the quality of these "cupcake" games. Scheduling last place teams from crappy low major conferences does very little for the team and can actually hurt their chances to get into the NCAA Tournament. After the win last night Iowa's RPI went down because Western Carolina has a horrible record and it will go down 2 more times after they play Savannah State and Bryant.

Duke does a decent job scheduling these types of games. Playing a 4-7 Hartford, a team that is projected to finish .500, is much better than playing Western Carolina whose projected record is 5-25 or Bryant who is projected to finish 7-22. BTW, that Hartford team beat Bryant last Wednesday by 17 points on Bryants home court.

Also, how the NET rankings work for selections, they don't really care if a home win was against a 170th ranked team or a 350th ranked team. they're both considered "quadrant 4" wins.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

In other words....Duke playing 225th ranked Hartford at home vs Iowa playing 287th ranked Western Carolina at home MAKES...NO....FUCKING....DIFFERENCE....

 

[lightning1]

Kenpom has Duke's SoS at 102 and Iowa's at 129
Sagarin has Duke's SoS at 95 and Iowa's at 109
ESPN BPI has Duke's SoS at 52 and Iowa's at 73

This is out of 353 teams, so even after Western Carolina they're very similar with a slight edge to Duke. However:

ACC has 6 teams currently in the KenPom Top 30. Duke plays those 6 teams 7 times this year
B1G has 8 teams currently in the KenPom Top 30. Iowa plays those 8 teams 13 times this year

Again, for the 100000 time, the B1G schedule will take care of all SoS "concerns". I would place a large wager that Iowa's SoS ends up better than Duke's by the time the season is over

That's almost always going to be the case. I would have said "always" had it not been for Nebraska last season. I thought 13-5 in conference play would have been good enough to get them in but it wasn't.

 

[lightning1]

Also, how the NET rankings work for selections, they don't really care if a home win was against a 170th ranked team or a 350th ranked team. they're both considered "quadrant 4" wins.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

In other words....Duke playing 225th ranked Hartford at home vs Iowa playing 287th ranked Western Carolina at home MAKES...NO....FUCKING....DIFFERENCE....

Thanks for the info. I've been too disinterested to do the research on how they figure it. I blame Gutless Gary for that too. My level of apathy for Iowa basketball is at an all time low these last 10 years.

 

[mopkins]

That's almost always going to be the case. I would have said "always" had it not been for Nebraska last season. I thought 13-5 in conference play would have been good enough to get them in but it wasn't.

Yeah Nebraska feasted on the bottom feeders of the big ten though. They beat Michigan once, but every other decent opponent they faced beat them.

The ACC looks very top heavy this year. Meanwhile the Big Ten looks to be solid from top to bottom.

 

[mopkins]

Thanks for the info. I've been too disinterested to do the research on how they figure it. I blame Gutless Gary for that too. My level of apathy for Iowa basketball is at an all time low these last 10 years.

Its confusing as hell. The NCAA provided this graphic to "explain" how it works and it mostly just adds to the confusion

 

[mopkins]

Thanks for the info. I've been too disinterested to do the research on how they figure it. I blame Gutless Gary for that too. My level of apathy for Iowa basketball is at an all time low these last 10 years.

Won't disagree with you there.

 

[ssckelley]

So, when scheduling games, when does the AD know that the team that they scheduled is projected to lose 20+ games? When Iowa scheduled Western Carolina, did they know there were going to be 3-9 at this point? WC lost in double OT to Furman (good team this year). They lost by 7 at Wake Forest. What if Western pulled out those 2 games and were 5-7 instead? Maybe they are ranked in the 200s?

When Iowa scheduled Savannah State, do they know they would be 3-9 at this point? Did they know they would already play @Texas A&M, @Georgia, @Vanderbilt, and @Wisconsin? What if SS plays lesser teams and their record is more respectable (OK, that's a bit of a reach )? Could they be in the 200s instead of 300s?

There's no doubt that Iowa wanted to schedule cupcakes in their non-conference. That's not arguable. However, like football, when looking for these teams to schedule, better to pick a team that has less chance to come in a put a loss on your record (Bryant, Western Carolina, Savannah State) than schedule Belmont (wins at UCLA), Stephen F Austin (wins at Baylor), or Lipscomb (wins at TCU).

I give Iowa credit - next year, they basically replaced the UNI/Drake game with a neutral court game vs Cincinnati. Doesn't help the fans for a home game, but it seems like they are trying to schedule some tough games.

It's not like football where they schedule these games years in advance. They can get a good indication of the direction of a program. Bryant has lost 20 games 3 years in a row, Western Carolina has been down for a while. Savannah State has been decent in their conference so that may have slipped through the cracks.

 

[ssckelley]

They do still weight Home/Road/Neutral in the NET, and SOS IMO is still going to be the primary driver. I think it is pretty funny that people poo poo'd the weird NET rankings when they came out... a month later, and there is still some seriously head scratching stuff.

I don't expect it to last and I'll wager that at the end of the day they will still look at RPI and all the other rankings.

 

[lightning1]

Its confusing as hell. The NCAA provided this graphic to "explain" how it works and it mostly just adds to the confusion

Lol. I saw that graphic and immediately came to the same conclusion. I was more confused after trying to understand it.

 

[mopkins]

They do still weight Home/Road/Neutral in the NET, and SOS IMO is still going to be the primary driver. I think it is pretty funny that people poo poo'd the weird NET rankings when they came out... a month later, and there is still some seriously head scratching stuff.

We won't really know anything about NET rankings until the end of the year when the selections are made. Does the committee go right down the NET rankings list when picking at-larges or do they still just use it as a guide and cherry pick bubble teams based on their own perception?

Also, we SHOULD be able to put NET right next to RPI and compare the two after the season to see how it effected the results...if at all

 

[Robowe]

It's not like football where they schedule these games years in advance. They can get a good indication of the direction of a program. Bryant has lost 20 games 3 years in a row, Western Carolina has been down for a while. Savannah State has been decent in their conference so that may have slipped through the cracks.

But, that's the point. Things change quickly in basketball. What do you think about those teams like UCLA, Baylor, and TCU who scheduled teams they probably thought they could beat (Belmont, Stephen F Austin, and Lipscomb), but they can't. Baylor won at Arizona, then lost their next game, at home, to Stephen F Austin. Is a good win better than a bad loss in the grand scheme of things?

 

[mopkins]

Lol. I saw that graphic and immediately came to the same conclusion. I was more confused after trying to understand it.

 

[lightning1]

No they won't. They likely won't even have anything on the team sheet distinguishing conference and nonconference games. The games will be lumped into quads based on wins and losses. Time of year and in and out of conference won't even matter.

What will matter is that it was a home loss.

 

[kicker22]

I guess my stance will always be that when faced with a brutal conference schedule the only thing that is going to get you ready for conference play is respectable competition. While no one wants to see 3 wins replaced by possibly going 1-2 if those cupcakes are replaced by legitimate teams, if there is a chance that the experience gained from playing those 3 legitimate (whether at home or on the road) can help produce 2 or 3 more conference wins then I think its worth it in the long run.

Financially I don't see much of a difference paying more for a mid-major if there is a chance that it puts more bodies in the seat. Hard telling if it was the opposition or the scheduled start time but as someone who attended the game the other night the number of empty seats was an embarrassment.

 

[PCHawk]

Also, how the NET rankings work for selections, they don't really care if a home win was against a 170th ranked team or a 350th ranked team. they're both considered "quadrant 4" wins.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

In other words....Duke playing 225th ranked Hartford at home vs Iowa playing 287th ranked Western Carolina at home MAKES...NO....FUCKING....DIFFERENCE....

That part is way better than RPI in my opinion. One thing they could do is create a formula where it slowly drops through a quadrant instead of having team 1 and 30 worth the exact same while team 30 is worth quite a bit more than team 31.

 

[mopkins]

That part is way better than RPI in my opinion. One thing they could do is create a formula where it slowly drops through a quadrant instead of having team 1 and 30 worth the exact same while team 30 is worth quite a bit more than team 31.

Yeah its always going to be imperfect, but its better than just eyeballing the whole thing. With RPI teams figured out how to "game" the system too much.

 

[mopkins]

I guess my stance will always be that when faced with a brutal conference schedule the only thing that is going to get you ready for conference play is respectable competition. While no one wants to see 3 wins replaced by possibly going 1-2 if those cupcakes are replaced by legitimate teams, if there is a chance that the experience gained from playing those 3 legitimate (whether at home or on the road) can help produce 2 or 3 more conference wins then I think its worth it in the long run.

Financially I don't see much of a difference paying more for a mid-major if there is a chance that it puts more bodies in the seat. Hard telling if it was the opposition or the scheduled start time but as someone who attended the game the other night the number of empty seats was an embarrassment.

Well another thing to consider....there are 353 teams. If every power 5 team only loaded up on other power 5 opponents, then college basketball as we know it would dry up. The cupcakes rely on these non-conference games to help fund their team for a year. So in a lot of respects the cupcakes need the bigger schools for additional funding. Iowa is paying Bryant and Western Carolina to come get smoked in Carver.

You could argue both sides of the coin, but IMO its good for college basketball as a whole. Watching VCU back in 2011 finish 4th in the Colonial conference but make it to the Final Four as an 11 seed was awesome. If Power 5 schools only played power 5 schools, VCU never would have made the NCAA tournament that year, and Cinderalla would still be at home cleaning her parents house....or however that story went.

 

[mopkins]

I think psychologically, it makes sense to schedule wins and I think this was a good year to do it.

Honestly though, I think in the case of Iowa this year, the problem isn't the total cupcakes, although that is a bit of a problem. The problem is that there really weren't any great teams in the noncon. Iowa has won all of their games, and they really don't have any signature wins. Quadrant one wins are those home games vs. teams RPI ranked 1-30, neutral games vs. 1-50, and away games vs. 1–75. For example, a home win against a top 30 team would qualify as a quadrant one victory. Right now Iowa has one, and that's the home win against ISU who is teetering at #30 right now. I think aiming to finish in the top 40 is a good goal for ISU, so I don't think they'll stay there.

To riff on mopkins' post above, overall SOS really doesn't matter, I overstated that. There isn't even an SOS figure in the NET ratings. Iowa is looking at like two quad 2 wins from the noncon total, ISU and Oregon. That means Iowa needs to make some major hay in the Big 10, and there will be some great opportunities, but even though Iowa is undefeated through the noncon I'm not sure it's done much to help the NCAA chances this year.

According to the NET ratings as they stand right now. Here is how Iowa's wins currently stack up:

Q1: Iowa State
Q2: UConn, Oregon
Q3: Pitt
Q4: all others. Although Green Bay is close to Q3