Spank! Iowa's win % down 21-5

[jacknicholson]

D%%% you guys using Radio Shack Tandy TRS

80 right?

That is a swell setup, Atomic......

 

[ddiction]

You are using probability of the games combined.
I'm looking at the individual games in a vacuum.

He has Iowa favorites in 4 of the 5 games, he thinks Iowa will win 4 of the remaining 5 games.

I understand the combined probability of winning the next 5 games, but that's not what I am talking about.
If you look at each game, Iowa is predicted to win 4 of the 5.

We aren't asking the probability of Iowa winning 4 out of the next 5, we are asking who does he think will win the next 5 games.
Those are two completely different questions.

Those are two completely different statements. The predicted record incorporates the percentage chance of winning each remaining game and allows for statistical variance. If a team was a 51% favorite in each game, the predicted record would be 3-2. If the team was a 99% favorite in each game, the predicted record would be 5-0. Such is the folly of assuming that the most likely occurrence is that everything plays out exactly as predicted on a per-game basis. The percentage chance of winning each game, rather than the simple W vs. L, is the main factor in determining the most likely W-L record.

 

[storminspank]

So does Iowa play these final 5 games individually or do they play them as a group?

My impression is each game is played independent of the others.

 

[storminspank]

Those are two completely different statements. The predicted record incorporates the percentage chance of winning each remaining game and allows for statistical variance. If a team was a 51% favorite in each game, the predicted record would be 3-2. If the team was a 99% favorite in each game, the predicted record would be 5-0. Such is the folly of assuming that the most likely occurrence is that everything plays out exactly as predicted on a per-game basis. The percentage chance of winning each game, rather than the simple W vs. L, is the main factor in determining the most likely W-L record.

If you take each game and put them in a vacuum, away from the rest of his predictions.

He says:
Iowa will beat Nebraska
Iowa will beat Purdue.
Iowa will lose to Indiana.
Iowa will beat Illinois.
Iowa will beat Nebraska.

If those games individually go as he has predicted, Iowa will be 4-1. This is what I am saying.

I am not saying Iowa has a higher probability to go 4-1 than 3-2, that's different. And that is what is being inferred from the final record at the bottom.
All games combined, right now, Iowa has a better chance to go 3-2 than 4-1.
But I'm saying Iowa is predicted to be the winner (they are the favorite) in the 4 of the next 5 games.

I understand where you and hawkfan33 are coming from, but I'm not interested in the probability of Iowa going 3-2 or 4-1. I'm looking at game by game, who's the favorite, who is predicted to win.
KenPom predicts Iowa to be the winner in 4 of the final 5 games when looking at each game individually.

I'm not saying I'm right and you are wrong, I'm explaining how I arrived at my conclusion.

 

[hawkfan33]

My impression is each game is played independent of the others.

So was the question how Iowa would do in each game individually or what their projected record was over all five games? And why did you crop out the Projected Record from your pic there, it says pretty clearly Iowa's final projected record is (9-9) 20-11?

 

[hawkfan33]

If you take each game and put them in a vacuum, away from the rest of his predictions.

He says:
Iowa will beat Nebraska
Iowa will beat Purdue.
Iowa will lose to Indiana.
Iowa will beat Illinois.
Iowa will beat Nebraska.

If those games individually go as he has predicted, Iowa will be 4-1. This is what I am saying.

I am not saying Iowa has a higher probability to go 4-1 than 3-2, that's different. And that is what is being inferred from the final record at the bottom.
All games combined, right now, Iowa has a better chance to go 3-2 than 4-1.
But I'm saying Iowa is predicted to be the winner (they are the favorite) in the 4 of the next 5 games.

I understand where you and hawkfan33 are coming from, but I'm not interested in the probability of Iowa going 3-2 or 4-1. I'm looking at game by game, who's the favorite, who is predicted to win.
KenPom predicts Iowa to be the winner in 4 of the final 5 games when looking at each game individually.

I'm not saying I'm right and you are wrong, I'm explaining how I arrived at my conclusion.

Fair Enough

 

[storminspank]

So was the question how Iowa would do in each game individually or what their projected record was over all five games? And why did you crop out the Projected Record from your pic there, it says pretty clearly Iowa's final projected record is (9-9) 20-11?

That wasn't intentional, I was just clipping the final five games.

 

[Billso]

What are the chances of flipping heads 10 times in a row?

vs.

After flipping heads 9 times in a row, what are the chances of flipping heads on the 10th toss?

 

[PCHawk]

What are the chances of flipping heads 10 times in a row?

vs.

After flipping heads 9 times in a row, what are the chances of flipping heads on the 10th toss?

The Saints lost 11 consecutive coin flips so the odds must not be that bad.