Spank! Iowa's win % down 21-5

So we were down to a 10% chance of winning at one point.

I wonder what the percentage chance of us winning by more than 20 points was. Maybe .000001% or something like that.
 


D%%% you guys using Radio Shack Tandy TRS
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80 right?
 




storminspank said:
He predicts a 4-1 finish, only loss to Indiana.

The total wins at the bottom are not aggregate, they are predictions over the entire season and will not equal the wins individually added up.
Click to expand...

Hawkfan is correct in this case. If, for example, you are a 51% favorite in each individual game in a 5-game stretch, your most likely record at the end of the stretch would be 3-2, not 5-0.
 


hawkfan33 said:
Right, so his overall projection is for us to finish the season 3-2.
Click to expand...

No because that overall isn't game by game.
Each game prediction is the actual prediction for each remaining game. He has Iowa 4-1 in the last 5.

His season totals look at the whole season, not what's left on the plate.

He has Iowa losing to Indiana and winning the other 4.
If statistics shift after a few wins, the overall wins could win to 10 when it's all said and done.
 


ddiction said:
Hawkfan is correct in this case. If, for example, you are a 51% favorite in each individual game in a 5-game stretch, your most likely record at the end of the stretch would be 3-2, not 5-0.
Click to expand...

You are using probability of the games combined.
I'm looking at the individual games in a vacuum.

He has Iowa favorites in 4 of the 5 games, he thinks Iowa will win 4 of the remaining 5 games.

I understand the combined probability of winning the next 5 games, but that's not what I am talking about.
If you look at each game, Iowa is predicted to win 4 of the 5.

games_zps867726db.jpg


We aren't asking the probability of Iowa winning 4 out of the next 5, we are asking who does he think will win the next 5 games.
Those are two completely different questions.
 


storminspank said:
You are using probability of the games combined.
I'm looking at the individual games in a vacuum.

He has Iowa favorites in 4 of the 5 games, he thinks Iowa will win 4 of the remaining 5 games.

I understand the combined probability of winning the next 5 games, but that's not what I am talking about.
If you look at each game, Iowa is predicted to win 4 of the 5.

games_zps867726db.jpg


We aren't asking the probability of Iowa winning 4 out of the next 5, we are asking who does he think will win the next 5 games.
Those are two completely different questions.
Click to expand...

Yeah and that's not what the question was, the question was how does he predict Iowa to finish, and he predicts Iowa to finish 3-2. I don't get what you don't understand here?
 


hawkfan33 said:
Yeah and that's not what the question was, the question was how does he predict Iowa to finish, and he predicts Iowa to finish 3-2. I don't get what you don't understand here?
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Q was: "How does kenpom predict us to finish? 3-2 or 4-1?"

I'm looking at the game predictions - he's predicting Iowa to win 4 out of the 5. Math tells me that's 4-1.
You're deriving your conclusion based on the total season wins, which is over the course of the entire season, not the final 5 games.
 


storminspank said:
Q was: "How does kenpom predict us to finish? 3-2 or 4-1?"

I'm looking at the game predictions - he's predicting Iowa to win 4 out of the 5. Math tells me that's 4-1.
You're deriving your conclusion based on the total season wins, which is over the course of the entire season, not the final 5 games.
Click to expand...

Believe it or not the other 26 games are already in the book so Ken's formula's are pretty successful at predicting whether we are going to win or lose those games. So math tells me the only variable data points left for the season win totals are the last five games, which he predicts Iowa to have a 3-2 record in.
 


hawkfan33 said:
Believe it or not the other 26 games are already in the book so Ken's formula's are pretty successful at predicting whether we are going to win or lose those games. So math tells me the only variable data points left for the season win totals are the last five games, which he predicts Iowa to have a 3-2 record in.
Click to expand...

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on how he predicts the last five games.
 


storminspank said:
You are using probability of the games combined.
I'm looking at the individual games in a vacuum.

He has Iowa favorites in 4 of the 5 games, he thinks Iowa will win 4 of the remaining 5 games.

I understand the combined probability of winning the next 5 games, but that's not what I am talking about.
If you look at each game, Iowa is predicted to win 4 of the 5.

games_zps867726db.jpg


We aren't asking the probability of Iowa winning 4 out of the next 5, we are asking who does he think will win the next 5 games.
Those are two completely different questions.
Click to expand...


Spank--What are the numbers and percentages preceding the team and following the predicted score?
 


LG210 said:
Spank--What are the numbers and percentages preceding the team and following the predicted score?
Click to expand...

Preceding team is the Pomeroy rating of the team.
% after the predicted score is the opening win% that Iowa has against these teams per KenPom.
 


storminspank said:
Preceding team is the Pomeroy rating of the team.
% after the predicted score is the opening win% that Iowa has against these teams per KenPom.
Click to expand...

Interesting that a predicted 3 point win has a likelihood for W of 63% (Illinois).
 


hawkfan33 said:
Believe it or not the other 26 games are already in the book so Ken's formula's are pretty successful at predicting whether we are going to win or lose those games. So math tells me the only variable data points left for the season win totals are the last five games, which he predicts Iowa to have a 3-2 record in.
Click to expand...

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