So whats the ceiling for the Iowa Program?

[JG10Hawk]

Talk about bending numbers wow.

In 2012-2013 you conveniently left out winning 3 of our final four (which included getting jobbed against Michigan State in the BTT) that team happened to make a run to the NIT final.

Why did you leave out a year?

Also by virtue of having a 10+ game non conference schedule where Iowa is usually heavy favorites in 8 games, ya it should be expected that our early season record looks good, almost every P6 team does.

Also by virtue of the fact that Iowa hasn’t won the BTT or the National Championship, that’s two extra losses cooked into your analysis every season.

I fully understand that some of Fran’s team have faltered down the stretch for whatever reason, but each season is unique based on schedule, injuries, etc. a few of Fran’s teams have actually played really good ball down the stretch.

For instance, Iowa is going to be an underdog or pick em in likely 6 of the remaining 10 games, does that mean they fell apart if they went 4-6 (4-8 with current two game losing streak)?

Thou shall not use correct numbers that hurts one's argument.

The premise is there though for the most part, his teams have tended to falter down the stretch more often than not W/L wise. Going 4 years without a BTT win was painful, especially when 3 of those years were Fran's NCAA teams that probably hurt their seeding. It would be nice to see them get hot and make it to the BTT weekend games this year.

 

[oldhawk12]

Seriously no. Coaches have big impact.

So Iowa football isnt developmental?

Oh, it certainly is. It has no other choice

 

[NikeHawk21]

Thou shall not use correct numbers that hurts one's argument.

The premise is there though for the most part, his teams have tended to falter down the stretch more often than not W/L wise. Going 4 years without a BTT win was painful, especially when 3 of those years were Fran's NCAA teams that probably hurt their seeding. It would be nice to see them get hot and make it to the BTT weekend games this year.

There’s no question there are legitimate concerns with Fran, the BTT tourney record being one of them. I’m not even a big Fran supporter (I was actually calling for him to be fired last year), I just find arguments like the one above that completely bends numbers very frustrating, because people then interpret it as fact.

For me I think the reason we’ve faltered down the stretch is our zone and press defenses are much easier to expose in game 25 then they are in game 15. Teams have seen many defenses at that point in the season and know how to attack them. Those gimmick defenses can sometimes help us early in the year, but later in the year they are exposed and tend to concede tons of open shots.

 

[JG10Hawk]

There’s no question there are legitimate concerns with Fran, the BTT tourney record being one of them. I’m not even a big Fran supporter (I was actually calling for him to be fired last year), I just find arguments like the one above that completely bends numbers very frustrating, because people then interpret it as fact.

For me I think the reason we’ve faltered down the stretch is our zone and press defenses are much easier to expose in game 25 then they are in game 15. Teams have seen many defenses at that point in the season and know how to attack them. Those gimmick defenses can sometimes help us early in the year, but later in the year they are exposed and tend to concede tons of open shots.

Haha, your first paragraph is exactly why I commented on IowaLawWasRight's midterm awards post yesterday.

You may be on to something with the second paragraph. Opposing teams are more familiar with Iowa's tactics especially towards the end of the year come tournament time when they have seen it first hand at least once before.

The counter argument to that would be Iowa should know the opposing team just as well.

 

[PCHawk]

There’s no question there are legitimate concerns with Fran, the BTT tourney record being one of them. I’m not even a big Fran supporter (I was actually calling for him to be fired last year), I just find arguments like the one above that completely bends numbers very frustrating, because people then interpret it as fact.

For me I think the reason we’ve faltered down the stretch is our zone and press defenses are much easier to expose in game 25 then they are in game 15. Teams have seen many defenses at that point in the season and know how to attack them. Those gimmick defenses can sometimes help us early in the year, but later in the year they are exposed and tend to concede tons of open shots.

Before Marble's senior year, it was talked about a lot on here how every year the team got better as the year went on. That was the first year under Fran they didn't finish the year playing their best ball. That team got a top 10 ranking, then for whatever reason, couldn't beat teams. They either lost focus due to Patrick getting sick, choked under the pressure of being a top team, or were never good enough to overcome the other team's best effort playing a top ranked team.

The following year, they played their best ball at the end. The year after that, they they got a top ranking again and fell apart again. That year had a lot to do with their schedule at the end of the year. They only had one bad regular season loss late. The year after that, they had their best 2 games of the year late in the year. They were never a great team but they played their best ball late. Then last year they started terrible, continued terrible, then ended terrible. No late season collapse there. This myth that his teams fall apart at the end of the year come from 2 years.

 

[PCHawk]

Haha, your first paragraph is exactly why I commented on IowaLawWasRight's midterm awards post yesterday.

You may be on to something with the second paragraph. Opposing teams are more familiar with Iowa's tactics especially towards the end of the year come tournament time when they have seen it first hand at least once before.

The counter argument to that would be Iowa should know the opposing team just as well.

If it's true that teams figure out what Fran is doing late in the year to beat them, it means Fran spends 2/3 of the year out coaching guys like Izzo and Beilin. In 2013, the hawks destroyed Michigan mid year right before tanking. In 2015, Izzo wasn't a good enough coach to figure out Fran's genius in game coaching and prevent a home court beat down the second time he played them. Also the hawks beat Michigan the last game of the year in '15, while in the midst of their "slump".

In '15, Uthoff went through a stint where he played out of his mind. That was unsustainable. At the end of the year, he regressed to the mean and started missing the shots he made all year. His huge swing in play was the main reason for that year ending badly.

 

[PCHawk]

Seriously no. Coaches have big impact.

So Iowa football isnt developmental?

What does Iowa football have to do with me saying college coaches dont make you better at dribbling and catching the ball?

 

[ssckelley]

Iowa Basketball under Fran:

2012-13: Start 11-2, lose 7 of 10
2013-14: Start 19-6, lose 7 of 8
2014-15: Start 15-10, WIN 7 of 9
2015-16: Start 19-4, lose 7 of 10
2017-18: Start 11-12, lose 7 of 10
2018-19: Start 16-3, ???

This is why it’s difficult to be optimistic about Iowa basketball. Shows Fran teams will falter when it matters most.

We leave out 2016-17? It's not like it hurts your argument but leaving it out makes it look like you're skewing the numbers.

2016-17: Start 14-10, lose 5 of 10

Iowa won the last 4 regular season games that year to put themselves in the bubble discussion and then they crapped it away by getting blown out by Indiana in the BTT.

 

[NikeHawk21]

If it's true that teams figure out what Fran is doing late in the year to beat them, it means Fran spends 2/3 of the year out coaching guys like Izzo and Beilin. In 2013, the hawks destroyed Michigan mid year right before tanking. In 2015, Izzo wasn't a good enough coach to figure out Fran's genius in game coaching and prevent a home court beat down the second time he played them. Also the hawks beat Michigan the last game of the year in '15, while in the midst of their "slump".

In '15, Uthoff went through a stint where he played out of his mind. That was unsustainable. At the end of the year, he regressed to the mean and started missing the shots he made all year. His huge swing in play was the main reason for that year ending badly.

Where your argument falls flat is the fact that you are picking individual games from Fran’s tenure to say he out coached someone, but there could be more to each individual case than meets the eye. For instance, the first MSU win that you mentioned was without Bridges their best player and the second was his first game back where he was limited.

Basketball is a crazy game, anything can happen on any given night, but choosing individual games to prove or disprove a broader theory is a bit of a fools errand.

My theory about the zone and presses hurting us late in the year, is just that a theory. I just think those defenses lend way too many easy baskets which become more of a premium later in the year when teams are locked in on both ends of the floor.

But to your point in the prior post Iowa has finished strong on some occasions which would hurt my case. Honestly it’s probably a combination of several factors, but each year is unique in my opinion.

 

[JG10Hawk]

If it's true that teams figure out what Fran is doing late in the year to beat them, it means Fran spends 2/3 of the year out coaching guys like Izzo and Beilin. In 2013, the hawks destroyed Michigan mid year right before tanking. In 2015, Izzo wasn't a good enough coach to figure out Fran's genius in game coaching and prevent a home court beat down the second time he played them. Also the hawks beat Michigan the last game of the year in '15, while in the midst of their "slump".

In '15, Uthoff went through a stint where he played out of his mind. That was unsustainable. At the end of the year, he regressed to the mean and started missing the shots he made all year. His huge swing in play was the main reason for that year ending badly.

?? I'm not following what you are trying to argue. Stating only a couple of games and ignoring the population as a whole makes little sense by the way.

I said Nike may be on to something than basically stated that while opposing teams may have figured out how to attack Fran's tactics by the end of the year, Fran also equally would have the same opportunity to figure out the opposing teams' tactics.

Again, what exactly are we arguing?

 

[longtimer]

Again, where are you thinking he’ll go? Even if you don’t want to listen to me, there are zero analysts that even have Cook in the talk of being drafted after his year so far. He’ll be here next year hoping to make the board then.

Cook’s biggest mistake was coming to Iowa. Coached at Purdue or Wisconsin he’d already be gone. The athleticism is there but the refinements that are crucial to take the next step aren’t.

I expect Cook to leave because i think he wants to leave. Do I think he leaves for the NBA No I'm not sure he has much of a Europe future even. Do I think he should leave No He should stay and get his degree. Do I think another year at Iowa gets him a chance at the NBA No.
As far as the Iowa program I will never accept the level we are at now. I realize it is difficult to recruit to Iowa but it can be done. Raveling came in and recruited in one year a team that could have won it all. Wisconsin was a door mat for years and Bo took them to a level of competing for championships and deep runs in the tournament with not the greatest players so it can be done.

 

[PCHawk]

I didnt just say a couple games. I said the first 2/3 of the season. My point is I don't buy that hall of fame coaches couldn't "figure us out" those years, but guys like Chambers and Pitino could.

 

[Xerxes]

Oh, it certainly is. It has no other choice

Can you be a developmental program when you send as players to the nfl early as Iowa does?

6 in the last 2 years
Most likely 9 in 3 years after the 2019 season

That’s very close to Ohio St, Penn St, and Michigan.

 

[revkev73]

There’s no question there are legitimate concerns with Fran, the BTT tourney record being one of them. I’m not even a big Fran supporter (I was actually calling for him to be fired last year), I just find arguments like the one above that completely bends numbers very frustrating, because people then interpret it as fact.

For me I think the reason we’ve faltered down the stretch is our zone and press defenses are much easier to expose in game 25 then they are in game 15. Teams have seen many defenses at that point in the season and know how to attack them. Those gimmick defenses can sometimes help us early in the year, but later in the year they are exposed and tend to concede tons of open shots.

Teams with less talent can compete if they are determined and well coached. But, talent takes over eventually. Teams with better talent get more fine-tuned as the season progresses. Teams with less talent get exhausted and "the odds" tend to run out. Cream rises to the top and it becomes more visible as the competition heats up near the end of the season and into the tournaments, which is what the best teams focus on. Iowa is outclassed near the finish line, consistently.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

Thou shall not use correct numbers that hurts one's argument.

The premise is there though for the most part, his teams have tended to falter down the stretch more often than not W/L wise. Going 4 years without a BTT win was painful, especially when 3 of those years were Fran's NCAA teams that probably hurt their seeding. It would be nice to see them get hot and make it to the BTT weekend games this year.

When IS the last time we played past Friday in BTT?

EDIT: For that matter, when is the last time we played ON Friday in BTT?

 

[PCHawk]

When IS the last time we played past Friday in BTT?

EDIT: For that matter, when is the last time we played ON Friday in BTT?

That would be Marble's junior year. Not good. Fran clearly has an issue with getting his team ready against big underdogs in that tournament. 3 years in a row losing to a far inferior team during years we have a team capable of making a run.

 

[Fryowa]

I expect Cook to leave because i think he wants to leave. Do I think he leaves for the NBA No I'm not sure he has much of a Europe future even. Do I think he should leave No He should stay and get his degree. Do I think another year at Iowa gets him a chance at the NBA No.
As far as the Iowa program I will never accept the level we are at now. I realize it is difficult to recruit to Iowa but it can be done. Raveling came in and recruited in one year a team that could have won it all. Wisconsin was a door mat for years and Bo took them to a level of competing for championships and deep runs in the tournament with not the greatest players so it can be done.

The single biggest factor in recruiting, especially today, is program success. Clemson/Alabama/OSU/Georgia keep being Clemson/Alabama/OSU/Georgia because they get the best recruits. They get the best recruits by winning all the time. I say "especially today" because with the media the way it is and pro sports salaries being what they are now, the best recruits aren't looking at relationships with coaches, facilities, proximity to home, academics, etc. Translates to basketball the same way.

Because of that, the only chance a school has of breaking through is getting a one in a million coaching staff to get some success and start the snowball rolling. In hopes of finding that "right" coaching staff you can either play musical coaches like Nebraska did with their football team and destroy a program, or you can live with a .575 ish record from now until the cows come home. No other way to go about it which is why we are and will be stuck with the Iowa programs we have. The donor base calling the shots has made it crystal clear they're happy with 7-5 and winning the Bob's Muffler Shop Bowl every three years, and a 1st round exit after making the dance every 4-5 seasons. Barta's a wet fart and has zero to do with who our BB and FB coaches are, btw.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

When IS the last time we played past Friday in BTT?

EDIT: For that matter, when is the last time we played ON Friday in BTT?

Answering my own question, and after some research:

--We last played on Friday in 2013 (1-1, won Thursday, lost Friday)
--We last played on Saturday/Sunday in 2006 (won BTT, 3-0)
--We last lost on Saturday in 2005 (2-1, won Thursday & Friday, lost Saturday)

Steve Alford currently has the 3rd-best all-time coaching record for BTT. Both Todd Lickliter and Tom Davis never won a game in BTT. Fran McCaffery teams have played only twice on Friday, his first two seasons, but have lost on Thursday five years running. He is the only Iowa coach to "make" the Wednesday game, though he is also the only coach to have been around since that game was needed.

 

[hoxrock]

Starting with the Ralph Miller era Iowa has made exactly 6 sweet 16's. That includes the 87 team that almost went to the final four, and the 1980 final four team. That period of time includes 2 hall of fame coaches in Miller and Lute Olson and Iowa's all time leading coaching wins leader in Tom Davis. Iowa hasn't been to a sweet 16 in a paltry 20 years. I believe we have seen the ceiling of the Fran era unless recruiting improves. If you look at his win totals in 9 years it would make a nice bell curve. Meaning the peak might have been when Aaron White was a senior.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

Iowa Basketball under Fran:

2012-13: Start 11-2, lose 7 of 10
2013-14: Start 19-6, lose 7 of 8
2014-15: Start 15-10, WIN 7 of 9
2015-16: Start 19-4, lose 7 of 10
2017-18: Start 11-12, lose 7 of 10
2018-19: Start 16-3, ???

This is why it’s difficult to be optimistic about Iowa basketball. Shows Fran teams will falter when it matters most.

wow, hard to argue with those numbers