To carry that a little farther:
Since 2015 Season:
Miami 58 wins
Florida St. 50 wins
Texas 51 wins
Wash. 58 wins
USC 57 wins
Florida 62 wins
Wisc. 68 wins
Penn St. 65 wins
ISU 48 wins
Oregon 60 wins
LSU 66 wins
Iowa 66 wins.
Astounding the level Iowa could have reached with an average offense.
I'm not at all discounting your argument, because it's 100% accurate, true, and unassailable
My response to this though, there's a lot of ways to look at things.
What level could any of these teams have reached if they had just a slightly better offense (or defense) and a great punter?
Despite being a pessimist about 90% of things, my opinion of Kirk is.....look at how well we've done with an mediocre (at times) offense, above average defenses, and quality special teams....and his purported "unique" overall approach. I admit to being a bit of a Team Kirk guy. I wasn't in the beginning. I'm awfully angry at him now. Not so much about the suckyness. The nepotism thing. It's bad. And the legacy is at stake. And severe programatic turmoil that could be very hard to recover from.
I'm a numbers guy. I don't always understand them, but I got a pretty healthy dose of "Freakonomics" type learning earning an Econ degree in Iowa City. A lot of my professors had ties to U of I Chicago.
I argue this matters and should be considered. I've included the % of in-state players. Unfortunately, this is for all "college football" (D1-D3 and NAIA). So, it's not specifically accurate, but I think it's generally telling. I've included that percentage next to the number of teams in the state.
But, if we go with an average of 120 roster spots per team. By state, the population ratio to Power 5 roster spots is:
IA (2 teams, 77%)
13125:1
NE (1 team, 70%)
16033:1
MN (1 team, 70%)
46667:1
WI (1 team, 57%)
44833:1
MI (2 teams, 70%)
41558:1
OH (2 teams if we go ahead and count Cincy, 64%)
48667:1
PA (2 teams, 74%)
50000:1
IL (2 teams, 49%)
53000:1
IN (2 teams, not counting Notre Dame. I argue they're "private, aren't in the power 5 and 94.03% of students are out of state, they don't count, 68%)
27904:1
For reference, the one that stands out to me is Kansas.
FL (4 teams, 27%)
44166:1
TX (I went with 7 teams, sure, they're not all P5 but...you know...SMU at one time, 54%)
34095:1
KS (2 teams and I'm not including ANY Missouri population in Kansas City, 70%)
12137:1
Frankly, I think it's fair to argue that if we look at this metric, we're much better comparing ourselves to Kanasas/K-State. Other than this year, and maybe 2 other years in the last 30, I'll take our Hawkeye results over anything from Kansas, any day.
In terms of overperforming against this metric, I'm gonna say Wyoming is at the top, but only by default. Utah is probably the #1 spot.
And Iowa could very well could be #2. For 40 years, Iowa has outperformed almost every other state in achieving 'success' from a smaller pool of players, that makes up a large percentage of the team. And I attribute that to Hayden. And Kirk, who had exposure to Hayden.