Homer and Chad I think your attitude explanations are valid, however Iowa is going to be green on the unit that made the team in the successful seasons of '08 and '09. Iowa has had very good defensive lines the last three seasons. Iowa has had an incredible run of corners and stability at the Safety position for all three of those seasons and also excellent linebackers until the injuries last season. In a perfect world Iowa would reload, but we are losing three players at the key position for the defense- DL. It is nice that Iowa has 2 proven commodities in Binns and Daniels but again they play on the same side (Daniels has played both spots but generally lined up as the LDT. Iowa will have a new weak-side linebacker replacing one of the best players in the Ferentz era at defending the run, most likely two of the best safeties of the Ferentz era in the (assuming Hyde goes back to corner) and a middle linebacker that is still young, although he has a very high ceiling.
When Iowa has had to rely on the offense to bail out the defense- '05 and '06 come to mind, those haven't been the type of seasons that have met the Ferentz template for success. I hope that Iowa fills all the spots on the defense incredibly well, but the fact is we will be returning the fewest impact players in the league. Our division will be tough with Northwestern bringing back nearly every key player from last season and they are incredibly strong on both lines and probably have the most effective QB in the league. Nebraska is similar to Iowa in that they have a ton to replace on defense but the still boast a very solid defensive line, Michigan State lost a few O-lineman and two very good linebackers but already boast likely NFL QB and a ton of talent at every skill position. Michigan has a defense that will be very talented at every level that will be much better coached and a dangerous weapon in Robinson along with a talented young line. Only Minnesota has a questionable talent level and they will at least receive competent coaching now.
If Iowa is picked 3rd or 4th in our division in pre-season magazines we shouldn't cry about it but realize we lost a ton of talent. It is possible 9 players from Iowa will hear their name called this weekend. At least 7 will and I think that Reisner, Tarpinian, Hunter and Vandervelde all have a shot.
Do we have some intriguing talent returning, yes. Are their reasons for optimism, yes but KOK is still in charge of the offense, we have no proven depth at RB, wide receiver, linebacker, safety, and most importantly QB. Thats a lot of holes. The other teams just in our division are solid and 5 of them (including us) were bowl bound last season.
ISU is not a game I am worried about. First time QBs really struggle when facing Iowa and Prater and Hyde (wherever he line up) will bolster the secondary against a team that will likely have a similar bell curve to Iowa over the coming seasons- struggle early and improve as the season rolls along. As long as Coker is healthy for that game Iowa should win by 2 or more TDs.
spud -
I'm not crying foul about where Iowa is being picked by pundits in the pre-season. I've been predicting that the 2011 season would be a bit of a "rebuild" year for the Hawks for some while ... of course, I also thought that the transition would have gotten buffered a bit because I expected Sash to stick around for his SR season (color me surprised on that one batman).
On the flip side, I wouldn't have predicted that Iowa would have managed to get so many young guys experience on D last year. I think that the Iowa D will really reap some benefits from that experience gained too. In particular, I think that Morris and Miller will really shine in 2011. I was also pleasantly surprised by Kirksey too.
Without a doubt, the Iowa D will be green ... particularly early in the season. However, I think that the group will have enough experience at enough key spots that IF the starters can remain healthy enough ... the D has the chops to develop into a pretty darn salty group. In fact, I'm willing to go out on a limb and GUARANTEE that the Hawk D will be darn good provided that they can remain healthy. Obviously the "health" criterion is a rather stringent constraint.
Spud, you point to the '05 and '06 seasons as being seasons where we relied upon the D leaning on the O ... and that obviously wasn't a winning strategy. However, you have to admit that the Iowa squad got absolutely GUTTED by injuries in '06 and BOTH the Iowa OLs in '05 and '06 paled in comparison to the groups we've witnessed since '08. In fact, I'd argue that Iowa's OL quality and depth since '08 have been every bit as important to Iowa's success through the past several years than our D. In fact, when our OL has been hit with adversity ... our squad has been at its most vulnerable.
One counterexample to the trend is how Iowa's 2002 D leaned pretty heavily on the O. While our run D was admittedly pretty darn salty ... our pass D was more than a little "iffy." Without a doubt, our O bailed our our D quite a bit that season. And, what was particularly impressive about the '02 O? .... why the OL, of course!
LOL ... don't get me wrong, I'm not making any claims that the 2011 squad is going to enjoy near the success of the '02 squad. However, it's pretty striking that the '02 DL still featured .....
- 3 first-year starters on the DL (Babs, Clauss, and Hodges ... and Cole moved from DE to DT)
- 1 first-year starter at LB (Worthy ... who was good but not great)
- 1 first-year regular starter at S (a stretch ... Pagel had 5 starts in the prior season)
- 1 to 2 first-year starters at CB (DJ Johnson was a regular starter but also got injured ... AA and JJ played A LOT)
Anyhow, the point being that the '02 D had to replace A LOT ... and yet they did! Furthermore, the O definitely helped them out.
