Seven, Eight Wins Next Season

[jbuch26]

At the threat of sounding like a person that has his "Hawkspectations" too low...I don't think 8 wins would be all that bad. That's where I'd set the over-under.

First off - from a former Hawk - don't put too much into the spring "practice".

We have a lot more returning starters than people give us credit for (if James Morris isn't a returning starter, I'm Santa Claus) as well as inexperienced players that are more than capable of stepping up (Keenan Davis & Marcus Coker being the obvious examples).

I don't put much into the "easy" schedule, as we have no idea how these teams will shape up.

I DO put a lot into the "under the radar" role that we seem to do well in. I don't like it at the same time, but it's too proven to ignore. Hopefully it won't be an EXPECTED thing (like all the Twins fans who thought a American League Central title was a forgone conclusion. Oooops).


Anyway - the part the means the most is HOW the 7, or 8 (or more) wins actually look. We didn't win our 9th game until the bowl game in 2008, and that was a great team that was a blast to watch.

 

[JHHawk]

Iowa will need to avoid injuries to key personnel to meet my expectations,so with that caveat,I see the Hawks outperforming general expectations. Going into league play at 4-0. Losing to PSU and Nebraska in the league. Finishing 10-2 (6-2) and playing OSU in the Big Ten Title game....and losing. Whether a 10-3 record and a Legends title is enough to get the Hawks into a BCS bowl is open to question for all big ten fans....will the league still get 2 teams into BCS bowls even with a title game?

The offense has to be good early,with the defense toughening up by October.

 

[jameskalina]

Ha. I was gonna post something like this.

If Northwestern is given the benefit of the doubt due to recent history until we beat them, then Iowa should be given the benefit of the doubt against PSU until they are beaten by them

Good logical response.

Problem is Northwestern is no Penn State.

 

[Herkeynerd]

At the threat of sounding like a person that has his "Hawkspectations" too low...I don't think 8 wins would be all that bad. That's where I'd set the over-under.

First off - from a former Hawk - don't put too much into the spring "practice".

We have a lot more returning starters than people give us credit for (if James Morris isn't a returning starter, I'm Santa Claus) as well as inexperienced players that are more than capable of stepping up (Keenan Davis & Marcus Coker being the obvious examples).

I don't put much into the "easy" schedule, as we have no idea how these teams will shape up.

I DO put a lot into the "under the radar" role that we seem to do well in. I don't like it at the same time, but it's too proven to ignore. Hopefully it won't be an EXPECTED thing (like all the Twins fans who thought a American League Central title was a forgone conclusion. Oooops).


Anyway - the part the means the most is HOW the 7, or 8 (or more) wins actually look. We didn't win our 9th game until the bowl game in 2008, and that was a great team that was a blast to watch.

I agree with you mostly. However I think 9 wins will be more likely. With 10 hopeful and a chance at the B1G title game.

As far as the Twins go. They are certainly ailing right now with many of their stars sick with the flu or like Mauer with leg weakness. If they can tread water for a little bit until all this passes, then I see a huge run coming up in May and June. In all of this mess it does give the role players on the team a chance for much needed repetitions to help them get better. This can make for stellar defense and a very tough lineup to face later on. As the weather heats up, so will this team. If they don't, then I will be very disappointed. White Sox are supposed to be their main competition this season and they are struggling too (with their good players).

 

[jameskalina]

My challenge to the Hawks is get the September/Northwestern jinx off your backs and you're 9-3 or 10-2.

What a difference that makes in the perception of a successful season.

 

[ChosenChildren]

I know people have given Jon Miller a hard time about his "12-0" prediction last year, but it is kind of amazing how close Iowa was to finishing 13-0 last year.

Iowa finished 3-5 last year in games in which we either led or trailed by a touchdown or less in the 4th quarter. Here is a summary:

1. Michigan. Iowa went on a long drive late in the game, and then kicked a field goal for the final 38-28 victory. A very close game in the 4th quarter because of a great Michigan rally.
2. Indiana - miracle drive led by Stanzi in the last 3 minutes, and then Indiana drops a late touchdown pass. 18-13 Iowa in a real nail-biter.
3. Missouri - we win 27-24 on a late interception. Very close game that could have gone either way.
4. Arizona - We lost late.
5. Wisconsin - If we make an extra point, I think we win in overtime.
6. NW - hard to believe we lost that game.
7. Ohio State - they convert on a 4th and 10 late to win the game.
8. MN - we win if we had prevailed against Ohio State the week before. We were a team with no emotion that day.

I guess the point is that there is not a big difference in most seasons at Iowa between 8-5 and 13-0. We were in every game last year; the absense of experienced LBs and Norm Parker calling defensive signals was the difference, IMO (Parker made a subtle difference against Missouri, calling some blitzes in the 4th qtr that really helped the cause).

Perhaps it goes differently this year?

 

[Hawkfromnorwalk]

My over/under is at 7.5. Anything above would be a good year, anything below would be crappy.

 

[FCAS]

I know people have given Jon Miller a hard time about his "12-0" prediction last year, but it is kind of amazing how close Iowa was to finishing 13-0 last year.

Iowa finished 3-5 last year in games in which we either led or trailed by a touchdown or less in the 4th quarter. Here is a summary:

1. Michigan. Iowa went on a long drive late in the game, and then kicked a field goal for the final 38-28 victory. A very close game in the 4th quarter because of a great Michigan rally.
2. Indiana - miracle drive led by Stanzi in the last 3 minutes, and then Indiana drops a late touchdown pass. 18-13 Iowa in a real nail-biter.
3. Missouri - we win 27-24 on a late interception. Very close game that could have gone either way.
4. Arizona - We lost late.
5. Wisconsin - If we make an extra point, I think we win in overtime.
6. NW - hard to believe we lost that game.
7. Ohio State - they convert on a 4th and 10 late to win the game.
8. MN - we win if we had prevailed against Ohio State the week before. We were a team with no emotion that day.

I guess the point is that there is not a big difference in most seasons at Iowa between 8-5 and 13-0. We were in every game last year; the absense of experienced LBs and Norm Parker calling defensive signals was the difference, IMO (Parker made a subtle difference against Missouri, calling some blitzes in the 4th qtr that really helped the cause).

Perhaps it goes differently this year?

I see you've studied at the Dan McCarney School of Eternal Optimism

 

[ICHawk24]

My over/under is at 7.5. Anything above would be a good year, anything below would be crappy.

I think 7.5 is a good over/under. The fan in me wants to say 8.5 is a good o/u, but that is optimistic.

 

[cmhawks99]

Something I think is worth saying....If/when Iowa ever runs the table or has a so-called stellar season where they are in the hunt until the very end, it won’t be in a year where we all expect it or predict it. In all 4 of the seasons we finished in the top 10, I think expectations were solid but more like top 25, not top 10.

I honestly love the way this season lays out of paper……


Tennessee Tech

at Iowa State…………….new QB, lots of new parts every where

Pittsburgh……new coach at home

ULM....at home

Open Date…..very good open date so we can really prepare for the conference season

at Penn State……not more talented than us and have their own new parts

Northwestern…..at home………does it matter

Indiana………new coach

at Minnesota…..new coach, best possible away game before UM & MSU at home

Michigan……..new coach, will not be better than 7 wins, we shouldn’t be one of the 7. D will still blow and they don't have Pro-set parts yet

Michigan State……I like us at home, Cousins isn’t a scary QB, and we are tougher than them.

at Purdue……This is a game I don’t like, PU isn’t as good as us, but they have caused us grief before. Will they still??

at Nebraska………I like this game for us. They'll be confident, unless they tanked the season.

Big Ten Championship 1


Iowa has all the parts and have had for some time. QB play, QB health, and passion/emotion will be key.

Chad

 

[74Hunter]

Iowa will need to avoid injuries to key personnel to meet my expectations,so with that caveat,I see the Hawks outperforming general expectations. Going into league play at 4-0. Losing to PSU and Nebraska in the league. Finishing 10-2 (6-2) and playing OSU in the Big Ten Title game....and losing. Whether a 10-3 record and a Legends title is enough to get the Hawks into a BCS bowl is open to question for all big ten fans....will the league still get 2 teams into BCS bowls even with a title game?

The offense has to be good early,with the defense toughening up by October.

The league certainly can get 2 teams to the BCS, but a 3 loss team won't be one of them. Even a 2 loss team won't be a lock to make the BCS, unless they are rated exceptionally high.

I see that there is quite a bit of confidence in Hawk Nation, even though you reportedly don't have a ton of starting experience returning. This thread has been a good read, this will be a fun year.

 

[ShadasRevenge]

After seeing the spring scrimmage and reading about and watching the other Big Ten teams this past month, I'm predicting Iowa will win 7 or 8 games in the upcoming regular season.

I think there's not a team on Iowa's schedule the Hawks can't beat. But development, sustainablity and lack of injuries will be keys as to how the season goes. That said, best case scenario is 10 wins and worst case scenario is 5 wins.

Until the Hawks prove me wrong I maintain Iowa will lose a game in September (as they usually do) and also lose to Northwestern (as they usually do). I think Iowa State is the biggest threat to pull off the September upset.

Iowa's had a nice run against Penn State. But I think it's their turn to beat the Hawks in Happy Valley. It should be a close game, but Penn State finds a way to win that one at home.

Iowa should win all but one (Northwestern) of their home games.

There are two back to back road games in November that will give Iowa tough competition that can go either way. I think the Hawks will lose to either Purdue or Nebraska, or possibly both.

Hence the 7 or 8 win prediction.

I may tweak this prediction in late August, depending how things go over the summer with Iowa and its opponents.

Well, at least now we know.

 

[ShadasRevenge]

The league certainly can get 2 teams to the BCS, but a 3 loss team won't be one of them. Even a 2 loss team won't be a lock to make the BCS, unless they are rated exceptionally high.

I see that there is quite a bit of confidence in Hawk Nation, even though you reportedly don't have a ton of starting experience returning. This thread has been a good read, this will be a fun year.

Wasn't one of Nebraska's BCS teams a 3-loss team?

 

[treychase]

Iowa will win between 8-10 games and special teams likely determines which end of that spectrum they end up on.

 

[DesMoinesHawki]

I agree with the poster who said it is generally safe to think Iowa will notch seven to eight wins most seasons. A lot rides on who gets injured, etc.

I do, however, think this team will be better than most "national experts" will predict and that is fine by me. As we have become accustomed to seeing under Kirk, this team does better when the expectations are not as high.

The ISU game is always a toss up. But honestly, I am not too crazy about Tiller as a qb. Maybe the juco will come in and notch the starting position.

I have sort of backed off of making predictions because you just don't know. You look at the close of last season and absolutely no excuse for the Hawks to falter like they did.

I am excited to see the development of Vandy. My gut feeling tells me he is going to be a solid quarterback. He has pit in the time and now this is his team.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

LOL. That's the first time I picked an undefeated season. Whereas writers from papers like the LA Times have picked Iowa as their national title game team in the past...and others picked Iowa in the national title game last year (Skip Bayless, I believe, was one).

But by all means, string me up

All in good fun...I think another poster had it right later in the thread that a few breaks here and there, and it's a different season. For you to have an undefeated season, your QB has to play lights out (think Cam Newton)...ours was good, but no where near exceptional.

 

[olddude]

All in good fun...I think another poster had it right later in the thread that a few breaks here and there, and it's a different season. For you to have an undefeated season, your QB has to play lights out (think Cam Newton)...ours was good, but no where near exceptional.

Ahh, I think our O was good enough, granted not perfect but had the D upped their play that would have rubbed off on the O. Our D was just wore out. Thats why they saw the need for more quality D players (reloading). I think in a round about way that is what they were saying they have now.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

Ahh, I think our O was good enough, granted not perfect but had the D upped their play that would have rubbed off on the O. Our D was just wore out. Thats why they saw the need for more quality D players (reloading). I think in a round about way that is what they were saying they have now.

Honestly, I think our offense cost us the NW, OSU, and MINN games to close the season. When you score 17, 17, and 17 (we actually scored 24 against Minnesota, but one was a DJK return for score), it's hard to hang it on the defense. If you watch those games, our offense did the 3-0ut dance in the second half of those games continuously. Our D was on the field way too much.

Offensively, we couldn't put points on the board in the second half of games. My take, just my take mind you, is that our offense cost us more than the D. As much as people say, our D didn't make plays on those final drives, our offense didn't make plays to make them two score games. Sometimes you have to outscore teams with great QB play. We didn't.

 

[MoseSchrute]

In all seriousness, I believe there are two keys to the season. Vandy playing at a high level and not turning the ball over and someone emerging on the DL to compliment the three seniors. I think Davis is the guy. If the DL proves they can be effective stopping the run...

I agree with this and would add keeping AIRBHG away for a change. I don't see #16 giving away as many points as #12 did in '09. I am a little concerned with the DL. I think we have a better chance of losing to the Michigan schools than to Penn State, and are more likely to lose to Pitt than to ISU.

 

[DexterMorgan]

My personal base line has always been 9 wins. Nine wins is the cut off (in my mind) to the upper echelon. This team has top 15 talent and resources, so 9 is reasonable, 8 is disappointing, and 7 is just sad. That’s not to say I don’t get “itâ€￾, things happen and I’m not one to call for heads, but this team is deep and talented enuff that 9 should be the automatic baseline in my opinion.

On the other end 10 is doable, anything past that takes plenty of breaks and good fortune……

Chad

This is pretty well my mindset as well. 9 wins keeps us going in the right direction to a perennial top 20 team. 8 wins and we stay put and 7 wins and we take a step back.