Seven, Eight Wins Next Season

[Hawkfromnorwalk]

I like the potential of JVB but from some things I have seen, some of his passing, especially short and mid range passes, remind me too much of JC6. He needs to develop some touch on those type of passes. I saw one on the recap vid for the spring game, looked to be a RB screen type play, where he pretty much unleashed a high heater to the back that was about 5 yards away. The back was so caught off guard that he tipped it up and it got picked off. Seeing that kind of stuff brings back horrid memories I would like to keep buried away.

 

[ShadasRevenge]

I like the potential of JVB but from some things I have seen, some of his passing, especially short and mid range passes, remind me too much of JC6. He needs to develop some touch on those type of passes. I saw one on the recap vid for the spring game, looked to be a RB screen type play, where he pretty much unleashed a high heater to the back that was about 5 yards away. The back was so caught off guard that he tipped it up and it got picked off. Seeing that kind of stuff brings back horrid memories I would like to keep buried away.

Jake never did that. He would either skip it, overthrow it, or try to run and end up taking a sack.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

After seeing the spring scrimmage and reading about and watching the other Big Ten teams this past month, I'm predicting Iowa will win 7 or 8 games in the upcoming regular season.

I think there's not a team on Iowa's schedule the Hawks can't beat. But development, sustainablity and lack of injuries will be keys as to how the season goes. That said, best case scenario is 10 wins and worst case scenario is 5 wins.

Until the Hawks prove me wrong I maintain Iowa will lose a game in September (as they usually do) and also lose to Northwestern (as they usually do). I think Iowa State is the biggest threat to pull off the September upset.

Iowa's had a nice run against Penn State. But I think it's their turn to beat the Hawks in Happy Valley. It should be a close game, but Penn State finds a way to win that one at home.

Iowa should win all but one (Northwestern) of their home games.

There are two back to back road games in November that will give Iowa tough competition that can go either way. I think the Hawks will lose to either Purdue or Nebraska, or possibly both.

Hence the 7 or 8 win prediction.

I may tweak this prediction in late August, depending how things go over the summer with Iowa and its opponents.

I think that Pitt could possibly be the bigger threat for an early season loss. They return a quality QB and they have some pretty impressive athletes on O.

Of course, they will be playing with a new scheme on O ... however, it's the sort of scheme that might be tough for our D to match-up with ... at least right out of the gate. We're still going to be having guys who are going to be most comfortable playing in our base D ... and we're likely going to be having to play a good bit of multi-DB sets against them.

While I think that ISU could definitely be tough, I do not anticipate that their O is going to be all that great at the start of the season. Furthermore, I also anticipate that our OL will be able to neutralize their improvements on D.

 

[spudhawk]

I lean towards 7. Unless one of the incoming freshman tailbacks are ready to step in from day 1, I am less high on the offense after the spring scrimmage. Iowa will have solid options all along the offense for depth (maybe at WR, was not impressed with anyone other than Davis) White and Johnson were less than impressive versus a D-line that was being manhandled by the offensive line. Iowa may match up better with this defense versus spread teams if Kirksey or Hitchens win the job, but again depth is a problem at linebacker. The only DB that jumped out at me was Lowery- Castillo had two nice plays but his lack of athleticism was pretty noticeable versus KMM.

Also Wienke did not look good and while Derby did I don't have confidence in either to win games for us without a dominating performance by Coker if Vandenberg went down. One very good thing was that Scherff and Boffeli were excellent and MacMillan is still likely to win one of the guard spots. Iowa has a depth problem at Tackle but I think MacMillan could step in to either side.

I see losses to Penn State, Northwestern, and Michigan at least. This offense could resembel the 2008 unit with health, but the defense will likely be similar to 2005-2007 numbers.

 

[74Hunter]

Wasn't one of Nebraska's BCS teams a 3-loss team?

It's been so long since we've been in one of those games that I barely remember...

But from my recollection, we had the 2002 Rose Bowl, I think we were 10 or 11-1 going into it (loss at CU), the 2000 Fiesta Bowl 11 or 12-1 (loss to ut), the 1998 Orange Bowl 11 or 12-0, and the 2nd 1996 Orange Bowl was our worst team, going in at 9 or 10-2 (losses to ut and ASU). I realize that most of these were before the modern day BCS, and were considered, I think, Bowl Coalition bowls.

This brings unswer to a trivia question, 1997 was the only year in modern times that an Orange Bowl wasn't played. They played an Orange Bowl game in January of 1996 (after the 95 season) and either December 30 or 31, which was after the 96 season.

 

[vosov]

I would caution making any judgements one way or the other from a spring practice. I have seen spring practices that looked a lot worse than last Saturday that produced 10 win teams in the fall.

 

[cmhawks99]

I would caution making any judgements one way or the other from a spring practice. I have seen spring practices that looked a lot worse than last Saturday that produced 10 win teams in the fall.

It’s interesting you say this……it plays right in with what I think makes this team very intriguing and potentially fantastic. They won’t take anything for granted; they know they have work to do and a lot of competition and moving parts.

I think the reason this could be a special season is just because of our nature….underappreciated, under the radar, average spring equals lots of focus lots of hard work and a potentially special season.

The truth is this team has quite a bit of athleticism and talent (seemingly we upgrade yearly) it just lacks game time experience and even so because of injuries we have more than I think the prognosticators’ realize.

Chad

 

[cmhawks99]

I lean towards 7. Unless one of the incoming freshman tailbacks are ready to step in from day 1, I am less high on the offense after the spring scrimmage. Iowa will have solid options all along the offense for depth (maybe at WR, was not impressed with anyone other than Davis) White and Johnson were less than impressive versus a D-line that was being manhandled by the offensive line. Iowa may match up better with this defense versus spread teams if Kirksey or Hitchens win the job, but again depth is a problem at linebacker. The only DB that jumped out at me was Lowery- Castillo had two nice plays but his lack of athleticism was pretty noticeable versus KMM.

Also Wienke did not look good and while Derby did I don't have confidence in either to win games for us without a dominating performance by Coker if Vandenberg went down. One very good thing was that Scherff and Boffeli were excellent and MacMillan is still likely to win one of the guard spots. Iowa has a depth problem at Tackle but I think MacMillan could step in to either side.

I see losses to Penn State, Northwestern, and Michigan at least. This offense could resembel the 2008 unit with health, but the defense will likely be similar to 2005-2007 numbers.

Tell me about the above statements……

Why do we think Castillo isn’t very athletic….?!?!

Also we will lose to PSU because I assume we are due, Right?!?!

We will lose to NW because we always do, right…?!?!?

I disagree per se, but why do we lose to UM at home with a new coach, still poor defensive personnel and spread components in a Pro-set offense…?!?

Chad

 

[HawkeyeWalker]

I like 8 wins as the over/under. As so well stated, it's so hard to say depending on unforeseen situations. That said, if we have 8 wins and are competitive in the losses, I think I can handle that. Win the games we should and the ones we have the lead in the 4th quarter! 8 wins and a bowl win feels just fine.

I would like to see a couple wins done in dominant fashion, none of this jump to a lead and let them back in the game stuff ! No blowout losses (I say this but I honestly think it would have been easier in a couple losses last year if it was a larger margin and not a final seconds thing)

A lot of unknowns this year, as in most years. But a couple of bounces our way and solid effort, I think 8 wins is fair, 9-10 wins optimistic, 11+ takes some luck and maybe winning one or two we shouldn't.

I really hope we can win the NE game, don't think it's realistic to win big as their like us in the scrappy dept. But growing up in NW Iowa, going to college in a small state NE college, and now living and working in Omaha and having loads of rabid NE fans, it would be tough to take any loss, but REALLY tough to stomach a bad loss. A close loss in a competitive game, although still brutal, the good NE fans would embrace the rivalry with a little ribbing but oh so many would be awful to live with.

Go Hawks

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

I lean towards 7. Unless one of the incoming freshman tailbacks are ready to step in from day 1, I am less high on the offense after the spring scrimmage. Iowa will have solid options all along the offense for depth (maybe at WR, was not impressed with anyone other than Davis) White and Johnson were less than impressive versus a D-line that was being manhandled by the offensive line. Iowa may match up better with this defense versus spread teams if Kirksey or Hitchens win the job, but again depth is a problem at linebacker. The only DB that jumped out at me was Lowery- Castillo had two nice plays but his lack of athleticism was pretty noticeable versus KMM.

Also Wienke did not look good and while Derby did I don't have confidence in either to win games for us without a dominating performance by Coker if Vandenberg went down. One very good thing was that Scherff and Boffeli were excellent and MacMillan is still likely to win one of the guard spots. Iowa has a depth problem at Tackle but I think MacMillan could step in to either side.

I see losses to Penn State, Northwestern, and Michigan at least. This offense could resembel the 2008 unit with health, but the defense will likely be similar to 2005-2007 numbers.

spud -

I frankly think that you're being a bit harsh there. You have to remember that K-Mart, Shumpert, and Staggs are just now getting upper-teamer reps. Thus, I'd say that it's still early. Vandenberg needs to develop chemistry and timing with the upper teamers ... and that is a HUGE part of what the summer is about.

FURTHERMORE, you have to remember that the spring scrimmage was held in extremely cold conditions ... and that isn't traditionally a great thing for our O ... particularly when the top RB (like Coker) isn't getting the reps.

I think that we'll see that the summer and the fall 2-a-days will end up going a long way towards furthering the development of our squad.

If Iowa can get Rogers back ... then I really think that getting MacMillan, McNutt, and Rogers back will really give the O a legit boost. Furthermore, I anticipate that a TR FR RB or two will be able to step in and make a bit of a splash too. Heck, if ARob gets his act together ... it sounds like the door isn't altogether closed there. Having an experienced duo like Coker and ARob could really help out our depth concerns at RB.

Our O will still always have issues at the start of the season because of all the moving pieces ... however, as the Hawks enter the meat of the schedule, I think that the O has potential to be VERY good.

I think that the D has a few more issues. However, the biggest issues simply concern health and experience. I think that the youth/inexperience on D will cost us a game or two in the first half of the season ... however, I think that the Hawks end up finishing strong.

 

[spudhawk]

@cmhawks #1 about Castillo, he isn't fluid changing directions and his closing speed is poor. Not saying he can't improve because as a technichian he is very solid but often times at his position talent trumps ability in college.

#2 Iowa is going to be down on defense, Michigan is bringing in a new coaching staff but nearly all of their key personell and Brad Banks was an effective QB in a pro- style offense as a dual threat QB, Robinson is more dangerous and has a very good young offensive line in front of him.

@Homer, about the receivers, I am being Harsh but their is no clear option 3, and possibly no option #4 after the way they performed at the "spring event". I understand it was 1 day and I didn't see how they did the other 14 days but I was extremely underwhelmed with the way Staggs got off the line and changed direction, KMM caught the ball- body catching every time, and Shumpert looked lost several times. I am sure they can improve and they need to- weather shouldn't be an excuse- the ball was there nearly every time. Vandy looked very good.

One final thing Iowa played a ton of nickel and specialty defenses in this scrimmage whether due to lack of personell or designed situation but the defense was very overwhelming. They must take a huge step forward imo.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

@Homer, about the receivers, I am being Harsh but their is no clear option 3, and possibly no option #4 after the way they performed at the "spring event". I understand it was 1 day and I didn't see how they did the other 14 days but I was extremely underwhelmed with the way Staggs got off the line and changed direction, KMM caught the ball- body catching every time, and Shumpert looked lost several times. I am sure they can improve and they need to- weather shouldn't be an excuse- the ball was there nearly every time. Vandy looked very good.

I suppose that I look at the O and contrast it to the personnel who we had back in '04 and '05. We had very good options when it came to our #1 and #2 WRs, however there was still a pretty big drop-off from there. In '04, we really didn't dip down much further than Holloway. In '05, there was just Grigsby (ouch) and Melloy. Furthermore, in '04, our primary options at TE were Chandler and Majerus ... and in '05, it was Chandler, Moeaki (a TR FR), and Melloy.

Now, if you look at the '11 group, I really believe that McNutt and Davis have a better upside than Hinkel and Solomon ... and Hinkel was "money in the bank." I'd take K-Mart ahead of Grigsby in a heartbeat ... AND he arguably has more upside than Holloway too. Staggs is a guy who is probably fairly comparable to Melloy ... and Melloy was pretty darn solid when he was healthy. Lastly, I wouldn't be shocked if a young guy like Grant or Duzey could come in and help push the development of everybody further forward.

Besides, I really like our TEs. I think that we could see a bit of a return to our style of play in '08 ... where we used an absolute ton of 2 and 3 TE sets. If you have so many TEs on the field ... then there isn't quite as much of a reliance on the WRs.

What's more ... the OL in '11 has a MUCH bigger upside than either the '04 or '05 OLs.

 

[ICHawk24]

Sandeman caught 17 as a #3 and Keenan 11 as a #4 last year. We just don't use the 3rd and 4th WR much, so I'm not going to worry about them. The #2 TE (CJ?) will get more catches than 3rd/4th WR.

 

[MoseSchrute]

One final thing Iowa played a ton of nickel and specialty defenses in this scrimmage whether due to lack of personell or designed situation but the defense was very overwhelming. They must take a huge step forward imo.

I take it you meant underwhelming?

 

[spudhawk]

I take it you meant underwhelming?

Yes I was underwhelmed, my bad. I was not impressed with Alvis at D tackle, I also realize that it is one day, however given the style of offenses that Iowa is going to face this season it was encouraging to see so much Nickel and a nice variations of the packages. However I feel the defense is not nearly as deep as it was last season and that Binns and Daniels will have to carry the D and they generally play on the same side. I would prefer a move to RDE for Binns and for Alvis to stay strictly at DE.

On the plus size I was impressed with both Davis and Hardy, and Bruce Davis also looked healthy however he has never been strong in coverage and I just don't see him making a significant impact given the offenses that ISU, Pitt, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan and Penn State are capable of running.

Ultimately I feel Iowa is going to have to outscore teams and while I like the offense and feel it has the potential to be an elite Ferentz era O, their will likely be more pressure on this offense than any since the 2005-2007 seasons. That makes me nervous.

 

[LGEND24]

Jake never did that. He would either skip it, overthrow it, or try to run and end up taking a sack.

I'm lmao right now, but boy was that a painful time.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Yes I was underwhelmed, my bad. I was not impressed with Alvis at D tackle, I also realize that it is one day, however given the style of offenses that Iowa is going to face this season it was encouraging to see so much Nickel and a nice variations of the packages. However I feel the defense is not nearly as deep as it was last season and that Binns and Daniels will have to carry the D and they generally play on the same side. I would prefer a move to RDE for Binns and for Alvis to stay strictly at DE.

On the plus size I was impressed with both Davis and Hardy, and Bruce Davis also looked healthy however he has never been strong in coverage and I just don't see him making a significant impact given the offenses that ISU, Pitt, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan and Penn State are capable of running.

Ultimately I feel Iowa is going to have to outscore teams and while I like the offense and feel it has the potential to be an elite Ferentz era O, their will likely be more pressure on this offense than any since the 2005-2007 seasons. That makes me nervous.

I'm not going to say that "everything is going to be okay" on D ... because, with an injury or two at a few spots, all of a sudden we're looking at a D that could potentially be somewhere inbetween the '05 and '06 Ds.

However, if by some miracle Binns and Daniels (among others) are able to remain healthy for the D ... then I truly believe that the 2011 D has the potential to develop into a VERY good group.

In the spring, given our current situation of having a pretty good O and a pretty young/inexperienced D ... it makes sense that the D was a bit underwhelming. I'd say that right now that folks who were looking at the D this spring was seeing a group that had to contend with the following issues:

- the group had to find a new set of leaders
- many personnel groups on D were probably a bit behind due to rhabo
- Nardo, Bigach, DiBona, and Miller didn't participate in much (or all) of spring practice. Those are 4 guys who are very likely on the depth chart.
- Hyde was still new to the FS spot.
- the D will still potentially have around 2 TR FR who could potentially earn spots on the depth chart (I'm particularly thinking about Campell/Lomax and Cooper there)
- lastly, if Donavan Johnson can remain eligible and be able to refocus on football ... he's a guy who's capable of being "a force"

Lastly, the '05 and '06 squads suffered from not really playing with the right attitude. Through the past few years, the Iowa squad has played with a much better overall attitude.

 

[ColoradoHAWKEYE]

There is no way I'm going to set myself up for the same disappointment as I did last year of believing in the potential to run the tables. I like the under the radar role we are bringing. I also think we have a lot of unproven spots to fill. (high potential in several though - ie Coker, Morris).

We will or should be competitive in every game and I think we will have the potential for more than just a couple of high scoring big win games. My bar is set with 9 wins - anything less is disappointing for an Iowa team that recruits and expects to be in the B1G title hunt, or BCS talk every year.

 

[HawkeyeDenis]

Iowa has seven out of 12 games at home so winning 6 games is an easy bet. However, expecting an undefeated home streak may be a lot to expect from so many new players. And to get to a 9 or 10 win season Iowa needs to defend at home and do no less than 3-2 on the road.

My guess is that Iowa will drop a home game, possibly two and split the road games; Purdue, Penn State, Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa State. 2011 is a great schedule for Iowa, but the variable is the number of new players in new positions. Lets hope they surprise us... The O'line gells quickly, the defense is stellar and Iowa wins 10 games.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

This is just my perspective, however, for Iowa to "only" have a 6 or 7 win regular season ... the "wheels" have to come off the proverbial car for that to happen. Just look at the "evidence:"

- throw '01 out, the program was still the process of learning how to win
- '05 featured a team that wasn't all there concerning "attitude." Drew Tate had said as much in multiple interviews ... and I believe him. Not only was the D largely revamped ... featuring 6 first-year starters, 4 of whom being D-linemen ... but we were also seeing the onset of a "culture of entitlement." All the same, if you recall the Michigan and Northwestern games that year ... then you recall how close we were to having a 9-win regular season. Another element to the '05 season is that expectations where SKY HIGH after the Cap One bowl victory. Thus, our early and rather lopsided losses to ISU and tOSU set a bad "tone" for the rest of the season.
- In '06, injuries struck big and bad ... and that was coupled with pretty lofty expectations too. As a result, the wheels didn't only come off ... but the axels got shorn off too. If anything good came out of the '06 season, it was the purging of the culture of entitlement. This was one of the very few times when I've ever heard Ferentz speak of our squad with such disappointment and disgust.
- In '07 we were just crazy-young and had to contend with all sorts of off-field issues, injuries, and the like. I liked the attitude of the team ... however, we simply had to deal with too much inexperience at too many critical spots. Folks don't necessarily realize it ... but it was a bloody miracle that we even managed to get bowl eligible that year. All the same, we didn't go bowling because we failed to beat "lowly" Western Michigan.
- In '10 we got knocked by a bunch of injuries ... and then the losses seemed to undercut the team morale.

A recurring theme is that the health of the program is pretty central to our success. Also, what is comparably important is having great leadership on the field and having the guys play with the right attitude. When the attitude AND leadership isn't there ... then the team as a whole tends to suffer.

And lastly, as much as I hate to admit it ... our squad seems to respond pretty poorly to high expectations. Whenever expectations aren't met ... the team seems to lose its edge. That sucks because there's no way on earth that our D should have gotten pushed around by Minny like they were last season.

Anyhow, the GOOD NEWS is that I think that the Hawks do not suffer from any systemic "attitude issues" like we did back in '05 and '06. Furthermore, the program really isn't forced to "rebuild" like it had to in '07. The BIG ISSUE is whether the team can remain healthy and whether STRONG LEADERS will emerge. Quite frankly, I like our personnel on O and I think that guys like Daniels, Binns, Morris, Nielsen, and Hyde are capable of being VERY good leaders for the D. If key guys can remain healthy ... I think that the sky is the limit for the '11 Hawks. However, if too much $hit hits the fan .... then we could certainly see a replay of one of our disappointing seasons.