Program Expectations and Reality

[bogeyman]

I believe, if I heard right yesterday, for his coaching career Fran has won 57% of his games. 55% at Iowa. Take that info and do with it what you want. Not exactly a world beater.
My patience is wearing a little thin I admit. I respect much of what he has done, but I also see a weak Big Ten this year and with an experienced team like we have there are no excuses for losing to Minny & NW....NONE! I also have worn tired of the childishness he acts with regularly. I do give him credit though for improving his sideline antics this year, that is a step in the right direction. Just not sure he can handle the pressure of Big Time Basketball. I'm waivering on my support for him right now, teetering.

 

[PCHawk]

Have you fallen and hit your head? You really think that Fran has us where Davis had us these last 3 years? My response is NO WAY!


Tom Davis last 4 season Iowa's finished 4th, 2nd, 5th and 3rd place in the Big Ten. Fran's best finish is 6th place. In Mr. Davis's 13 seasons as coach at Iowa the Hawks finished 5th or better in 10 of those 13 season. A bubble team that sweats selection Sunday? Out of Tom Davis 9 visits to the NCAA Tournament I can think of maybe 3 seasons where we as fans were sweating. In 1998-1995 and 1991. IMO Iowa got screwed in 1998.

Davis rarely had a good seed in the tournament so maybe i was wrong on being on the bubble but it sure felt like it when we were playing the 1 seed in the 2nd round all the time. Someone did a comparison once where they took away the first 2 years of both coaches career and it looked pretty close to me.

The fact that Fran was so close to having huge years the last two years makes it really hard for me to want to try someone new because he didn't win one more game each year. If they would have snuck into the tournament 2 years ago and not been in a play in game last year, would you still want to move on if we missed the tournament this year? If your answer is yes, then you would be crazy to want to get rid of a coach for missing your expectations by one game a year and risk losing out on what might happen when Fran actually catches some breaks.

 

[PCHawk]

I believe, if I heard right yesterday, for his coaching career Fran has won 57% of his games. 55% at Iowa. Take that info and do with it what you want. Not exactly a world beater.
My patience is wearing a little thin I admit. I respect much of what he has done, but I also see a weak Big Ten this year and with an experienced team like we have there are no excuses for losing to Minny & NW....NONE! I also have worn tired of the childishness he acts with regularly. I do give him credit though for improving his sideline antics this year, that is a step in the right direction. Just not sure he can handle the pressure of Big Time Basketball. I'm waivering on my support for him right now, teetering.

Hard to judge a coach that spends his whole career rebuilding programs on his winning percent.

 

[ryno]

You are just repeating the overplayed narrative. You act like Iowa was the worst program ever but that isn't the case. Yes Lickliter failed, but as I said in a different thread, Iowa had a better 5 year run prior to Fran than ISU had prior to Fred. Yet, you don't hear Fred and fans still blaming the McDermott years. Why is that? Because they are actually winning.

Basketball is not football. Football is very hard to pull a program up from the bottom because of how much is involved.

Basketball can be turned in 1 year with a couple of players. 2-3 years for a location like Iowa is perfectly reasonable. Iowa/Fran is in year 5 and starting down the slide again and losing their most productive player. Maybe this recruiting class will finally stick, but forgive me if I have my doubts.

What I see are "shooters" who can't shoot. Big men who can't hold onto the ball in the paint. Guards that can't create their own shots or shots for those around them. And a team that doesn't seem to care that they are embarrassing to watch.

People thought Marble was an offense killer last year, but it turns out he was the only offense savior on the team.

If this team continues down this path again this season, then the Fran experiment has failed. Thank goodness we have Barta though so he can get an extension.

AGREE

 

[bogeyman]

Hard to judge a coach that spends his whole career rebuilding programs on his winning percent.

Yep, understand your point and had thought of that too. Just mainly putting the stats out there. Even with rebuilding programs, its not a real high % though is it? Maybe it is. Honest question, other than a few NCAA berths, what has he actually "won" as far as Championships? Did he win conference a couple times at Sienna?

 

[lightning1]

I think we are seeing the Fran McCaffrey ceiling, unfortunately. But the options right now are not any better. I absolutely, with 100% certainty, do NOT want Gary Barta involved in hiring another Iowa coach. So, i am content to wait another year or 2 for that clown to be gone first.
I like the idea of watching Fran ball better than witnessing another whiff by Barta.

 

[WindsorHawk]

So your basis for Iowa being in good shape is because Bracketology has Iowa a 9 seed with an arrow in red pointing down indicating stock and seed falling? lol..

Dude I'm watching the product on the court, might want to try that..

I put way more stock in "Braketology" than your subjective opinion. You're too close to the situation to see it objectively. But I'm glad you're still laughing. It's healthy to laugh.

I'm also watching the product on the court. You're focusing on MN and NW. I'm also taking into consideration MI and MD. My memory goes back further than the last 2 games.

 

[ChosenChildren]

I put way more stock in "Braketology" than your subjective opinion. You're too close to the situation to see it objectively. But I'm glad you're still laughing. It's healthy to laugh.

I'm also watching the product on the court. You're focusing on MN and NW. I'm also taking into consideration MI and MD. My memory goes back further than the last 2 games.

Minnesota is athletic and talented. That loss did not surprise me that much.

NW was a bad loss. Period.

Next 6 games are going to tell the story of this season

 

[clicheusername3]

I put way more stock in "Braketology" than your subjective opinion. You're too close to the situation to see it objectively. But I'm glad you're still laughing. It's healthy to laugh.

I'm also watching the product on the court. You're focusing on MN and NW. I'm also taking into consideration MI and MD. My memory goes back further than the last 2 games.

I tink you shuld put sum stok in a Speak and Spell.

 

[DP5555]

I think we are seeing the Fran McCaffrey ceiling, unfortunately. But the options right now are not any better. I absolutely, with 100% certainty, do NOT want Gary Barta involved in hiring another Iowa coach. So, i am content to wait another year or 2 for that clown to be gone first.
I like the idea of watching Fran ball better than witnessing another whiff by Barta.

Totally agree. I have zero confidence in Gary Barta. If I could choose one person to leave it would be him. Not Kirk, not Sally, not Fran, but GarBar. I have not once been impressed with him. Not in any of his interviews. Not in emails that I have exchanged with him in the past. He just comes across as being very content with the status quo and that is not something I want in the leader of Iowa's athletic department.

 

[PCHawk]

When people say Fran hit is ceiling, what do they mean? Do they think he will never put a team together again that was as good as last year's or do they mean every time he puts a good team together they will fall apart? Or do they just not think last year's team was that good?

I think last year's team was legit top 10-15 and had a good chance to beat any team in the country. I think he will land a difference maker recuit sooner rather than later (whether it's a high ranked one like Ulis or a late developer like Marbe). When he gets that player again, we will have a team around him that will be capable of winning a big 10 championship.

 

[SpecialKHawk]

So much of winning comes down to talent and for whatever the reasons that are well documented it has been very difficult for multiple coaches in our major sports to pull in enough of it consistently to win at the level we all want.

Fran's tenure has been so interesting. He has managed in 5 years to reserect the program to the point that expectatuons have been raised. He has accomplished a number of first time this or that in a long, long time. He has some big wins. He has brought us to the door step of the tourney multiple seasons. Yet there have been notable failures as well.

What would be interestimg is to chronicle the careers of the other rumored candidates on the list when he was hired. I am not certain too many if any have faired tremendously better. One was Brian Gregory from Dayton who ended up at G-Tech but has been circling the drain in the ACC. Some were pushing Tony Barbee - gone already. Others?

The bottom line is patience and persistentence better than jumping off the bridge every time something goes wrong?

 

[clicheusername3]

So much of winning comes down to talent and for whatever the reasons that are well documented it has been very difficult for multiple coaches in our major sports to pull in enough of it consistently to win at the level we all want.

Fran's tenure has been so interesting. He has managed in 5 years to reserect the program to the point that expectatuons have been raised. He has accomplished a number of first time this or that in a long, long time. He has some big wins. He has brought us to the door step of the tourney multiple seasons. Yet there have been notable failures as well.

What would be interestimg is to chronicle the careers of the other rumored candidates on the list when he was hired. I am not certain too many if any have faired tremendously better. One was Brian Gregory from Dayton who ended up at G-Tech but has been circling the drain in the ACC. Some were pushing Tony Barbee - gone already. Others?

The bottom line is patience and persistentence better than jumping off the bridge every time something goes wrong?

Les Jepsen is undefeated right now...just saying.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

I put way more stock in "Braketology" than your subjective opinion. You're too close to the situation to see it objectively. But I'm glad you're still laughing. It's healthy to laugh.

I'm also watching the product on the court. You're focusing on MN and NW. I'm also taking into consideration MI and MD. My memory goes back further than the last 2 games.

That is very interesting because Bracketology is a Highly subjective process. It is also what you would call very fluid and my guess is Lunardi has Iowa's stock dropping and seed dropping because of what just happened these last two games.

As for my focus it is on the entire body of Iowa's work to date, which is that Iowa is 15-10 and 6-6 in conference play which isn't over impressive. Iowa has work left to do in order to secure a NCAA a Bid and Bracketology isn't something the least bit concerned with.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

I think last year's team was legit top 10-15 and had a good chance to beat any team in the country. I think he will land a difference maker recuit sooner rather than later (whether it's a high ranked one like Ulis or a late developer like Marbe). When he gets that player again, we will have a team around him that will be capable of winning a big 10 championship.

I'm curious on what you think happened?

 

[nationalchamps]

 

[PCHawk]

I'm curious on what you think happened?

I got to thinking after Jay Bilas said he has never seen a team as prepared for what MSU was doing as iowa was. Maybe the reason we lose so many close games is because the team with better players has a better chance to win close games and maybe our team with worse players was only in the position to win because what Bilas said was true and Fran really gets a team prepared well. Once Patrick got diagnosed with cancer, Fran lost focus and we lost the one advantage we had. All we had left was an unprepared team that wasn't more talented than our opponents.

This theory also works well for why we were dominating first halfs and losing second halfs so bad. Fran finds a way to give his inferior team the advantage and at halftime, the better team adjusts and takes away that advantage and wins. Of course all of this stems on Bilas being correct in his assessment. It sure makes sense to me though.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Last year at this time we were 18-6 and ranked #16 in the AP poll. We just destroyed #10 Michigan at home. We then went on to lose to 4 teams that didn't make the NCAA. So you will have to excuse me while I go wait for the other shoe to drop. Bracketology means nothing right now, as if it did we would have been a 4 or 5 seed last year instead of a #12 seed.

I agree that Bracketology mean nothing right now relative to the end of the season. But it's an indication of where we are right now if the tournament started today.

A lot of people including myself like Kenpom far more than RPI. Kenpom has us at 36. For some context...MSU is 21; MD is 37; Indiana is 41; MN is 50; PUR is 51; and IL is 57. So are the losses to MSU and MN horrible...nope. Is the sweep of 14 OSU huge...yep. Is the road loss at PUR a bad loss...nope.

We have 1 (really) bad loss. We have some good wins. We have 2 quality opponents left to play.

I do think Bracketology is more relevant than references to last season. I also think only having 1 bad loss thus far is more relevant than what happened last season.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Hard to judge a coach that spends his whole career rebuilding programs on his winning percent.

Very good point.

 

[clicheusername3]

I agree that Bracketology mean nothing right now relative to the end of the season. But it's an indication of where we are right now if the tournament started today.

A lot of people including myself like Kenpom far more than RPI. Kenpom has us at 36. For some context...MSU is 21; MD is 37; Indiana is 41; MN is 50; PUR is 51; and IL is 57. So are the losses to MSU and MN horrible...nope. Is the sweep of 14 OSU huge...yep. Is the road loss at PUR a bad loss...nope.

We have 1 (really) bad loss. We have some good wins. We have 2 quality opponents left to play.

I do think Bracketology is more relevant than references to last season. I also think only having 1 bad loss thus far is more relevant than what happened last season.

Do you know why the NCAA uses the RPI and not Kenpom?