1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
Good points, and ISU's success doesn't make it any easier, but there's also a #3 for me: 14 years since our last NCAA Tournament win. That's a long time to stay patient, with literally zero reward.
Program Expectations and Reality
- Thread starter WindsorHawk
- Start date
Good points, and ISU's success doesn't make it any easier, but there's also a #3 for me: 14 years since our last NCAA Tournament win. That's a long time to stay patient, with literally zero reward.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
I have not seen a projected NCAA bracket without Iowa. If someone else has please share the link. As of today we're still in good shape. I'm confident Iowa is going to be make it. Others are confident Iowa isn't going to make it. We'll know for sure in 3 weeks.
Year 6 - You're saying the same thing most everyone said at the end of last season...losing Marble and to a lesser extent Basabe. I posted some stats last spring showing how the returning players could replace Marble's production simply by absorbing his minutes and shooting the same percentages they shot last year. I felt this year's team would be as good as last year's team...and it can be argued this team is as good. This is the primary reason my prediction from last March is part of my signature. I expect next year's team to make the NCAA Tournament and think they will.
FranklinHawk
Well-Known Member
Are you talking about Zach McCabe, the guy who so many last year (likely you included) were saying was awful and shouldn't see 5 minutes of playing time in any game? That guy?
I do agree that the Lickliter excuses at this point have run their course, but if you don't think trying to recruit high level talent to an Iowa team that had been thru multiple 10-11 win seasons is tough then I don't know what to tell you. You either take the best you can get in state and fill in with mid-level recruits or you take the route that Hoiberg has taken at ISU.
What I'm looking at is recruiting moving forward. While Fran absolutely still has to prove he can close, we've been more strongly in the mix (final 3, etc) for much more highly rated out of state players lately. He seems to have gotten a foot back in the door in Chicagoland as well. How that ends up and who he actually gets to sign on the dotted line for the '16 and '17 classes will be a major factor as to whether Iowa continues to move upward or has hit the ceiling.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
Trust me. I wanted to throw up after the game Sunday. It's not like I expected us to lose or enjoyed it. But I can still see the big picture.
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
I also felt this was a NCAA team this year, so I'm not saying that about next year based on anything other than what I think the team will do next year. Heck 2 years ago going into year 4, I would have told you Fran was on target for making the next 3 years for the NCAA tourneys easily. I would have wagered a lot on it actually. Losing only Marble basically last year, then only losing White basically this year, I felt that the nucleus of Gesell, Woody, Uthoff, and Jok would improve each year, and be a NCAA team for sure as Sr. (Jok a Jr). Now I'm just not seeing it. Who knows though, players develop, team chemestry changes, anything can happen. I will say though that I will be predicting no NCAA for the '15-'16 team this offseason, I just don't see any kind of guard play that can overcome the fact that we won't have as dominate a front line as this year.
I certainly hope we make the dance, and than I am all back on board even if we dip in '16.
SmokeTownHawk
Well-Known Member
At this point in time it needs to be making the Dance this year for Fran to keep his job. A legitimate spot, not any of this play-in nonsense. NIT just doesn't cut it.
BlackGold57
Well-Known Member
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
I'm not looking too hard at next year until the season's over. But here are some thoughts off the top of my head. I suspect much of White's scoring and rebounding will be covered by committee...much like Marble's. Give his 30 minutes to the rest of the guys and they're going to give some production.
Oglesby does well with a lot of the fundamentals but isn't shooting well. It's quite possible there will be improved production (at the very least on offense) when spreading his 20 minutes around.
I don't have an answer for Gabe right now. He does some things that won't easily be replaced. But I don't think the players getting his 18 minutes will stand around watching the paint dry.
I love Uthoff, Jok and Uhl. I believe Uthoff and Jok are the key to our success this season and will be the go to guys next season. I don't think they can be guarded when they are at their best. It's a great 1-2 punch. I think Uhl is going to get stronger and improve substantially. He's a guy that will absorb a lot of those minutes that are leaving on the inside and should bring something to the table.
Finally, Woodbury, Gesell and Clemmons will be seniors with tons of experience. So at the very least they should match what they do this year and again...have experience. And who knows what Ellingson, Dickerson and the new recruits will bring to the table.
ArvadaHawk
Well-Known Member
What I don't understand is the mentality of considering a season with at least 7 winnable games left, over. Losing to jNW was clearly not acceptable.
Did you realize that Fran will have coached Iowa to a tournament the last 4 seasons? We should wind 20 games this season and make the NCAA. That would be 3 straight 20 win seasons and consecutive NCAA's. We all know that basketball is so much a different sport and season, than football. It is just too early to call this a failure season. Hell, we still have 25% of the regular season left to play. Accepting mediocrity in hoops isn't the issue. The issue is giving up on the season or not, as fans. I still see 7 winnable games and a nice NCAA run.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
I agree. The season isn't over. Still a ton to play for. The team just has to show up and do it, which I think is the real question.
I guess I'm still gun shy from last year's meltdown, which also happened multiple times in the Alford era. So I've gotten all too accustomed to it. I hope this year's team surprises me in a good way.
All of that is true and I don't quite understand what the expectations are for those calling for Frans head already. When building a program from the basement it takes time. And even under perfect conditions (which Iowa hasn't been) it just takes a few classes to let the change of culture set in. I think it's easy to set unrealistic expectations but geez if your going to hire and fire coaches every 5 or 6 yrs then that's the cycle you'll get yourself caught up in and that alone will limit what your ceiling can be unless you just catch lightning in a bottle.
It's one thing to have a Licklighter situation happen. But what's happened so far under Fran clearly isn't that. Lets not get crazy here. It's ok to be frustrated I'm as ****** off as anyone that they lost to NW and MN. But the bigger picture needs to be realized.
It's one thing to have a Licklighter situation happen. But what's happened so far under Fran clearly isn't that. Lets not get crazy here. It's ok to be frustrated I'm as ****** off as anyone that they lost to NW and MN. But the bigger picture needs to be realized.
MiniMoeHawk
Well-Known Member
Iowa no longer has a safety net....They blew any margin of error with the last two losses. Iowa has already went through the hard part of their schedule and do not really have any quality wins outside of Indiana. Their already in the mid 50's RPI and will probably be difficult to hang your hat on the RPI after the end of the year.
If Iowa wins out or has 1 loss against Indiana they should make it in. If they lose 2+ games they will need to make a run in the tourney to make it. They went from being comfortably in the dance to on the verge of being on the bubble in a week. With that being said, Iowa should sneak in the tourney since it is a weak bubble this year. Hopefully they dont have to play another opening round game.
I can't wait for the "teams on the bubble in competitiion" thread.
I think Fran has done a great job at Iowa. To me, he is one of the best, if not the best, coaches in the conference. You should take in mind that when he was hired he had a boss that probably had stipulations on what he was allowed and not allowed to do with the program. Barta is Frans boss, and Iowa has stuck by the players that were committed to the University of Iowa. If you look at some of the other schools they don't appear to. Iowa State players come and go every year. I think Fran will build the program up to a high degree, but it appears that it will take a couple more years. They are fun to watch in the meantime, except when they have idiot announcers like Dakich trying to be intelligent commentators.
HawkPrdatr40
Well-Known Member
Really Iowa is in good shape? We are 15-10 and just lost to a VERY BAD Northwestern! How in the world can anyone say we are in good shape? We have 10 losses?? Amazing
It's astonishing to me the things I read at times. I have no warm fuzzy feelings about what I'm seeing out of Fran and this IMO is the bigger issue. We are entering Fran's 6th season and he can't get out of his own way. FACT is This team is a tournament team with a coach who could execute X's and O's and properly manage a bench..
Listen I'm not calling for his Fran to be fired but I'm certainly not impressed with what I've seen and I can only hope something changes.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
I was expecting a sweet 16 appearance by yr 5.
Knight78
Well-Known Member
Wow. You must not have been on these boards before this season. According to all the Negative Nancys on this board, McCabe was lucky to be able to tie his own shoe laces. According to them, it was McCabe's fault for our skid last year, it was McCabe's fault that we didn't make the NCAA two years ago and it was McCabe's fault we lost [insert any lost game here]. And yet he is still playing for $$$ in Europe.
AnyoneButYou
Well-Known Member
I wouldn't even know where to start responding to your statements.....OMG. Are you Hawknick?
I recognize he has done some good things and it's still too early to judge his overall performance for this year but if he misses the Tourney this year then next year is THE year.......miss again and he should be gone, make the Tourney this year and next then he begins to solidify (not guarantee) his position with this program.
Why should fan expectations be different than when Davis was fired because entry into the Dance was not enough? Iowa should more often than not clearly make the cut (not this bubble stuff) at a minimum.
Why should fan expectations be different than when Davis was fired because entry into the Dance was not enough? Iowa should more often than not clearly make the cut (not this bubble stuff) at a minimum.
BlackGold57
Well-Known Member
You are free to be positive, however we are now in the second year where it was expected that we be an NCAA tourney team. Last year fell apart, and national media referenced it falling apart. Now after large losses to IA St, UNI, MIchigan St, Wisconsin twice, all prior to two unexpected losses, have people questioning any ability to have a home court advantage, ability to put proper personnel on the floor, have a competitive culture, messing with the media, not to mention lackluster recruiting. There is a trend, and it is hard to deny, but plenty of people want to give another game, another week, another month, another year, 2017, or just are happy chattering about being back someday, and bashing Alford and Lickliter.
BlackGold57
Well-Known Member
I am well aware McCabe was a not star, and just maybe another underdeveloped Fran product. At least he was not a wimp. How is McCabe any worse than Woodbury? For goodness sake, how many failures has Fran had in recruiting? His top players are Iowa guys, so he should be fired if he can't keep them in state. Who has he recruited out of state? Clemmons? Hubbard? The guy from Georgia who is gone. Dickerson was the prize recruit last year and does not even see the floor. He recruited White, that's about it. Uhl has a chance to be good if he does not get wrecked. Olesani should have been better than he has been. Might want to take a look at how many players underachieved with him, like May, Olglsby, McCabe. Other than White, who really has developed under him, and even white has limited game offensively, and everyone knows it. Woodbury and Gessell will be SENIORS next year, in about 7 more games, not counting NIT
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