Percent chance Iowa wins
- Thread starter 99topdawg
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WinOneThisCentury
Well-Known Member
Hmmm...I had it at 18.8834%. I wonder where they found that extra tenth against us?
You're a homer.
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
Intangibles:
1. Home game, big plus for us
2. Night game, another big plus for us
3. Barkley's "quitters" comments, plus for us
4. 3-0 in our last 3 home games against Top 5 teams, plus for us
5. New OC with limited film for them to see, plus for us
Game Play:
1. Our Run O vs their Run D - Advantage Iowa. Playing on the road against teams with a pulse last year, PSU gave up 350 rushing yds to Michigan, 350 rushing yds to Pitt, and 250 rushing yds to Wisconsin. Wadley is better than any back on those 3 teams.
2. Our Pass O vs their Pass D - Push. While our change in passing scheme has been really good this year, PSU can counter that with speed advantages at every position.
3. Our Run D vs their Run O - Push. While Barkley is a great RB, his real skill is in the passing game, not the running game. And our strength is stopping the run.
4. Our Pass D vs their Pass O - Advantage PSU. While our CBs are very talented and athletic, that is negated by the youth, inexperience, and often-times downright terrible play by our safeties. Couple that with a less than stellar pass rush plus the plethora of receiving talent PSU brings, we are at a significant disadvantage.
Final Synopsis - We can run on this team. If it can be good enough, we have a chance to keep their quick strike passing game off the field. While PSU has the overall advantage "on the field", I think the numerous intangibles are just enough to put us over the top.
Final Score - Iowa 27 PSU 24
1. Home game, big plus for us
2. Night game, another big plus for us
3. Barkley's "quitters" comments, plus for us
4. 3-0 in our last 3 home games against Top 5 teams, plus for us
5. New OC with limited film for them to see, plus for us
Game Play:
1. Our Run O vs their Run D - Advantage Iowa. Playing on the road against teams with a pulse last year, PSU gave up 350 rushing yds to Michigan, 350 rushing yds to Pitt, and 250 rushing yds to Wisconsin. Wadley is better than any back on those 3 teams.
2. Our Pass O vs their Pass D - Push. While our change in passing scheme has been really good this year, PSU can counter that with speed advantages at every position.
3. Our Run D vs their Run O - Push. While Barkley is a great RB, his real skill is in the passing game, not the running game. And our strength is stopping the run.
4. Our Pass D vs their Pass O - Advantage PSU. While our CBs are very talented and athletic, that is negated by the youth, inexperience, and often-times downright terrible play by our safeties. Couple that with a less than stellar pass rush plus the plethora of receiving talent PSU brings, we are at a significant disadvantage.
Final Synopsis - We can run on this team. If it can be good enough, we have a chance to keep their quick strike passing game off the field. While PSU has the overall advantage "on the field", I think the numerous intangibles are just enough to put us over the top.
Final Score - Iowa 27 PSU 24
mopkins
King Kong
18% is ridiculous, especially at home. I think Iowa wins the game at least 3 out of 10 times. Football usually boils down to a couple huge plays. Wadley busting that 40 yard TD vs Iowa state. Hakeem Butler dropping that pass in OT. Easley fumbling into the end zone vs North Texas made that game a lot closer than it should have been. On and on.
Just last year Penn State lost to Pitt by 3 and lost to Michigan by 39. Thirty nine point loss to a team Iowa beat. Anything can happen.
Just last year Penn State lost to Pitt by 3 and lost to Michigan by 39. Thirty nine point loss to a team Iowa beat. Anything can happen.
WinOneThisCentury
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure you can give our run D vs. their Run O a push. They have the best RB in the country...and I'm not sure it's close. That's an Advantage. I agree with everything else though.
theboat
Well-Known Member
Here's the thing. If PSU plays their best game vs Iowa's best game, PSU wins. But I agree with Spider that most of the intangibles lean Iowa, so PSU will likely be far from perfect. In that scenario it will come down to things like turnovers, 3rd down defense and offense, penalties, etc. I gotta good feeling.
Good guys 24, PSU 20.
Good guys 24, PSU 20.
ibahawkeye
Well-Known Member
I would say 35%. It's probably closer to 25% but based on the success the Hawks have had at night at Kinnick against other top teams, I increased it by 10%.
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
I'm going to say 35% chance. Iowa has a way of stepping up in games like this. In addition, I'm going to hope last year was an anomaly as KF Iowa teams usually play games closer and even when they lose. I also think now they know what they are dealing with and can better game plan, along with a new OC coordinator and KOK on board.
thejumper5
Well-Known Member
According to VegasInsider.com, the current consensus line is Penn State -12.5.
According to TeamRankings.com, in college football, 12.5 point underdogs (closing line) have won outright 30.2% of the time since 2003.
According to TeamRankings.com, in college football, 12.5 point underdogs (closing line) have won outright 30.2% of the time since 2003.
AreWeThereYet
Well-Known Member
On the coin toss.
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
We have the best middle linebacker in the country....at least according to AP Preseason All-American list.
But I know what you're saying, but I still stand by my assertion that his value is more in the passing game than the running game. He had a total of 88 yds against Pitt this year, with a long of 22 yds.
mopkins
King Kong
This is Penn State's first road game of the year, and its a night game in a hostile atmosphere. Iowa is also the first decent team Penn State has played all year. They should roll in here cocky from dominating teams all season and crushing Iowa last year.
Intangibles make me feel better.
Penn State also covered up decades of child molestation
Intangibles make me feel better.
Penn State also covered up decades of child molestation
HawkPrdatr40
Well-Known Member
Agreed you can't not with Barkley back there sorry.. Iowa's D has there work cut out for them Saturday night, Barkley will be the best back this team sees all year!!
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MiniMoeHawk
Well-Known Member
35 percent...
Penn state away from home for the first time. Their weakness on defense is the front 7 play stopping the run. If the OL comes out to punish and control the TOP then Iowa has a fighters chance.
Penn state away from home for the first time. Their weakness on defense is the front 7 play stopping the run. If the OL comes out to punish and control the TOP then Iowa has a fighters chance.
JoeyLabasForPresident
Well-Known Member
In my mind we're winning, end of story, but statistically I'll go with 60%.
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