Percent chance Iowa wins

Ive been following Iowa football since the early Fry years, and there is one thing I have learned about Iowa football...Don't get them motivated! Barkleys' comments last year have been burning in their minds! You heard it here first! Barkley is going down!!! He'll be lucky to make it out of Kinnick alive! Once again Iowa shocks the football world! Iowa 34, Penn St. 16
 
theboat said:
Here's the thing. If PSU plays their best game vs Iowa's best game, PSU wins. But I agree with Spider that most of the intangibles lean Iowa, so PSU will likely be far from perfect. In that scenario it will come down to things like turnovers, 3rd down defense and offense, penalties, etc. I gotta good feeling.
Good guys 24, PSU 20.
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I was with you til you had to go and reference penalties which caused flashbacks to the awful officiating last week. This game better not be influenced by officiating. Unless it favors us
 
HAWKS put together first complete game of the year and PSU doesn't! 75% chance Kinnick is a sea of happy HAWK fans once again on national tv as Herbstreit announces "If you are a top 5 team you do not want to come to Kinnick on a Saturday night!"
 
I can't believe how many people belittle the Michigan win on here now. That was almost an impossible win before kickoff. But now it wasn't a big deal because they play our style? What does that even mean? They were explosive on offense and gave up nothing on defense. We came out and played hard as hell, got some momentum, and won a tight game. But now people say it was all because of what Michigan tried to do. We don't know what Michigan tried to do because whatever they tried, we took away. I wonder what people will say to belittle Penn State next year if we win tonight?
 
SpiderRico said:
Intangibles:
1. Home game, big plus for us
2. Night game, another big plus for us
3. Barkley's "quitters" comments, plus for us
4. 3-0 in our last 3 home games against Top 5 teams, plus for us
5. New OC with limited film for them to see, plus for us

Game Play:
1. Our Run O vs their Run D - Advantage Iowa. Playing on the road against teams with a pulse last year, PSU gave up 350 rushing yds to Michigan, 350 rushing yds to Pitt, and 250 rushing yds to Wisconsin. Wadley is better than any back on those 3 teams.

2. Our Pass O vs their Pass D - Push. While our change in passing scheme has been really good this year, PSU can counter that with speed advantages at every position.

3. Our Run D vs their Run O - Push. While Barkley is a great RB, his real skill is in the passing game, not the running game. And our strength is stopping the run.

4. Our Pass D vs their Pass O - Advantage PSU. While our CBs are very talented and athletic, that is negated by the youth, inexperience, and often-times downright terrible play by our safeties. Couple that with a less than stellar pass rush plus the plethora of receiving talent PSU brings, we are at a significant disadvantage.

Final Synopsis - We can run on this team. If it can be good enough, we have a chance to keep their quick strike passing game off the field. While PSU has the overall advantage "on the field", I think the numerous intangibles are just enough to put us over the top.

Final Score - Iowa 27 PSU 24
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#4 is pretty much meaningless. I'm sure there is a stat out there of how many 3-0 teams vs top 5 went on to 3-1, but noboby bothered finding it.
Our LBs vs their anything - Advantage PSU. By a mile. We in trouble unless they can get it together.
I might feel better if this game was in November.
Kinnick will be charged, and so will the team. That alone will keep us in it for at least a quarter.

I'm just not confident in a W.
 
GotTimDodge said:
#4 is pretty much meaningless. I'm sure there is a stat out there of how many 3-0 teams vs top 5 went on to 3-1, but noboby bothered finding it.
Our LBs vs their anything - Advantage PSU. By a mile. We in trouble unless they can get it together.
I might feel better if this game was in November.
Kinnick will be charged, and so will the team. That alone will keep us in it for at least a quarter.

I'm just not confident in a W.
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How is #4 meaningless? It shows 2 things...1) the home field advantage of Kinnick, and 2) KF-coached teams' ability to play up to high level competition.

Completely meaningful and relevant.
 
SpiderRico said:
How is #4 meaningless? It shows 2 things...1) the home field advantage of Kinnick, and 2) KF-coached teams' ability to play up to high level competition.

Completely meaningful and relevant.
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It wouldn't have really even mattered if we lost a couple on missed field goals and had a 1 of 3 record. What is relevant is they were extremely competitive games. It is hard for a top team to come to Kinnock at night and dominate. That means there is a good chance we will be in this game until the end.
 
I remember a dynasty Miami team coming into Kinnick and having trouble at night in the 90s.

I said it last year before the Michigan game that playing at night in Kinnick is a whole different animal and Iowa had a chance.

Iowa has a chance tonight as well. I think Iowa is a better team than they were last year. Just can't give up many big plays.
 
Miami won 24-7, they ended up not having much trouble at all.
(and their captains didn't even shake hands with ours at the start of the game, intentionally turned their backs. Dicks).

3-0 at home vs top 5 does indicates being competitive at home, yes. My point as that stat doesn't mean anything for us to win, tho. But competitive, yes.
 
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GotTimDodge said:
Miami won 24-7, they ended up not having much trouble at all.
(and their captains didn't even shake hands with ours at the start of the game, intentionally turned their backs. Dicks).

3-0 at home vs top 5 does indicates being competitive at home, yes.
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But that was an all time Miami team vs a mediocre Iowa. Iowa gave them a game all things considered.
 
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