Percent chance Iowa wins

Last year against Michigan I was scared to death to even watch! I just knew we were going to get blown out. Our offense was terrible all year. When the defense got that safety I was like total giddy! You could just feel the electricity even through the tv. I'll never count the Hawks out in Kinnick at night against a top 10 team. The offense is leaps and bounds better than it was last year. The defense is capable and needs to play their best game to date for sure. Bf and KOK will come up with something new.........I can feel it! All this talk about Saquon Barkley............I bet psu will be breaking ankles trying to catch Akrum Wadley! We have weapons too! 50-50 chance! GO HAWKS!!!!!!
 
5% sounds right. Barkley will kill us. There were several first downs against NT where they ran for 10 yards against us. Barkley is arguably the best player in the country and is averaging 8 yards per carry. Enough with the Michigan comparisons. Michigan tried to beat us with our style of football which we can handle. Penn State is better than any offense that we have played in our current streak of bowl game blowouts. They aren't going to line up and run it every down.
 
This is where we say 110% chance because we are going to give 110% effort, even though its impossible when people say that.
 
vork22 said:
Penn State is better than any offense that we have played in our current streak of bowl game blowouts. They aren't going to line up and run it every down.
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Yeah, we'll see if that holds up when they play some real opponents. You may be right, but we'll find out. I do believe that the 2015 Stanford Squad was better than this PSU squad. That said, who's to say they keep it together on the road, and I'm less convinced by their defense than I am our offense.
 
50% of winning as is with every game played.

My own thoughts tell me around 10% chance.

We do not match up well with these type of offenses. Unless PSU has a ton of turnovers, and possible injuries to their top playmakers, they are going to cut through us. Jewell is not 100%, which is big deal. He looked very slow against North Texas so I hope he's healed up for tomorrow.

Iowa has to play perfect for us to have a shot. It can happen, but its doubtful. We don't have the horses on the DL to impact their passing game.
 
thejumper5 said:
According to VegasInsider.com, the current consensus line is Penn State -12.5.

According to TeamRankings.com, in college football, 12.5 point underdogs (closing line) have won outright 30.2% of the time since 2003.
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Thanks, that is really interesting. So even teams that are almost 2 TD favorites only win around 70% of the time.

I know I have a skewed view of these probabilities, and I think many others are subject to the same biases. It seems like a 2 TD favorite should win nearly all of the time (95+%), and if the upset occurs, clearly the favorite must have messed up in some historically awful way. But in reality, these games, even those with lopsided spreads, are a lot more competitive than many would imagine.

Other interesting tidbits I found from the teamrankings.com site you mentioned:
  • since 2003 (the furthest back their data-set goes), Iowa is 24-37 as an underdog (won outright 39.3% of the time); that is the 11th best win% as an underdog in FBS over that span
  • since 2003, Iowa is 7-7 as a home underdog (7th best win% as home dog over that span)
  • since 2003, Iowa is 86-27 as a favorite (to no one's surprise, Iowa's 76.2% win% as a favorite is pretty mediocre, only the 59th best percentage in FBS over that span)
  • since 2003, Iowa has been favored in 113 games, and been underdogs in 61 games, with 8 pushes (favored 62.1% of the time); over this same span, they are 116-66 (63.7% win%), 26th best in FBS
 
First thing I'll say is Eff ESPN.
Those pukes have zero credibility and hate the B1G so much and hate Iowa even more. Their "18%" quote is nothing more than a random stat that some Bristol-based intern doctored up, so don;t dwell on it.
#2 - I think the odds of 3 out of 10 times we win is legit, no argument there. PSU is definitely talented and their coach knows his stuff.
That said, I really do like us at home at night!
Odds are that just one key mistake on either side will determine the winner.
I think Saturday night will be Iowa's finest game of the year, the Offense & Defense BOTH rise to the challenge and it's hokey-pokey time!
 
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